LVLT - Level 3

[Guest ValueCarl]

I am still waiting for the WISDOM this Burke Man is failing to bring in the case of (3)/Netflix vs. Comcast arbitrary toll booths. He doesn't seem to be enlightened sufficiently even while sitting at the right hand of God. It will be these types of non economic decision making processes which will add unnecessary costs or burdens onto the internet that will slow it down moving ahead.

 

The MIT reference wreaks of Akamai's involvement and their desire to use prior (3) fiber from the 2004 DF sale. I will not be surprised if they buy AKAM. Speculators beware of the thirty percent upside premium!  

 

Ben Graham, watch what they're doing, vs. whose boards they are sitting on. Comcast goes in the same SPIT bucket as TREX, from this perspective.  

[Guest ValueCarl]

This didn't happen today, yet somebody is INTENT on telling the newswire that it did!

 

Akamai breaks above its 10-day moving average, resistance is at $35.05       05/26 05:30 AM

 

 

 

 

Get more news on:SYMBOLS: AKAMNEWS TYPE: SECTORS:

 

 

http://www.google.com/finance?q=akam

[Guest ValueCarl]

Ben Graham, you know I love you even if you're an atheist as I believe you are-it doesn't matter to me if you are-but using the Lord's name in vain is a little bit OVER THE TOP(OTT), even with a SILVER LIGHT VIDEO, don't you think?  ;) That's the Greek word for love, agape, in case you confuse my love for something more perverse than it is. 

 

Bring me MONOPOLIST HEADS quickly, as THE SHIFT must not be DELAYED any longer. The People of Mother Earth are craving and demanding it! 

[Guest ValueCarl]

The Akamai PUMP is being DELIVERED on Comcast's network, CNBC, today. Catch the buzz words including: one trillion, command center, keep climbing, cyber attacks, monitor, protect, our cloud is the largest distributing network in the world, bad guys, we shield, Sony Playstation, and on and on! Akamai solves it all, and some!  Ask Paul Sagan wearing his pretty pump shoes for his Comcast network partner this morning.  

 

 

http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000024202  

[Guest ValueCarl]

Ben Graham, I just want to know one thing! How many FOOLS bobbed their heads up and down clucking and gobbling like TURKEYS sucking up all those BUZZ WORDS and bought Akamai stock today!  ;)

 

Reference: Cialdini's "Influence: The Psychology of Persuasion  

 

There is one other thing to be derived from your Fairfax "Guiding Principles" link which I have suggested could be a reason for an "early conversion" versus sucking down convertible interest for the next 600 days or so!

 

Repeat after me, Ben Graham, "It's the Book Value Per Share, Stupid!"  ;)

 

 

OBJECTIVES:

 

We expect to compound our mark-to-market book value per share over the long term by 15% annually by running Fairfax and its subsidiaries for the long term benefit of customers, employees and shareholders - at the expense of short term profits if necessary.

Our focus is long term growth in book value per share and not quarterly earnings. We plan to grow through internal means as well as through friendly acquisitions.

 

[Guest ValueCarl]

So Ben Graham, just as a man gets comfortable with his own subjective calculations for IV, while waiting with baited breath for full valuations to occur, the "GREAT MANAGEMENT TEAMS" kick him in the pants by, "changing the rules in the middle of the game," damned be James Baker and that Bush clan, in order to kick it up a notch!

 

So I say to my (3) management team, "Next acquisition, please." 

[brker_guy]

YouTube hits 3 Billion views per day, 2 DAYS worth of video uploaded every minute:

 

http://youtube-global.blogspot.com/2011/05/thanks-youtube-community-for-two-big.html

 

http://thenextweb.com/google/2011/05/25/youtube-hits-3-billion-views-per-day-2-days-worth-of-video-uploaded-every-minute/

[Guest ValueCarl]

Ben Graham, I apologize profusely for implementing my warped sense of humor once again! James Baker, you may recall was Bush Jr.'s lawyer for the Al Gore "chad" conundrum, and that Big Texas Lawyer Hat, was advising the public at large along with Supreme Court Justices that, "It's not fair to change the rules in the middle of the game," with all the hoopla surrounding the Popular vote vs. Electoral, always makes me laugh inside. It made me laugh louder when Baker stated it because, as most here know, the rules are always being CHANGED and TWEAKED in the middle of the game to suit he with the "POWER, INFLUENCE and CONTROL" to make it so!!!!!!!!!!!!! 

 

It's also part of my warped sense of humor for connecting those Enron dots to that whole clan and their transplanting operations from Nebraska to Texas along with Warren E. Buffett's "war reparations" derived from gas pipe lines received later on. Then to hear in one of the more holier places of all business environments, Charles Munger's Wesco meeting last year, that Kinder Morgan, with its own Enron affiliations, should be considered for investment vs. Level 3 by certain attendees was just too much for me to handle!   

 

Regarding your question, and its direct tie in to (3), IV will keep "CHANGING" in the "MIDDLE of the GAME" as they grow organically and via acquisitions, and as the economy becomes healthy again by way of more "consumption" even if, silicon economics continues to make "price per unit" more attractive for end users!

 

Let's remain friends, Ben Graham, while we keep having fun, o.k.?  ;D You seemed a bit surly there!       

[Parsad]

ValueCarl, are you monetizing any part of your LVLT holdings right now?  Had a pretty good run of late, and I know you bought quite a bit as the price fell in the last year or so.  Hope you monetized a little!  Cheers!

[brker_guy]

Sanjeev, didn't you see that 48mil shares block that went through today on LVLT?  That's ValueCarl's monetization of his position right there.  :D ;D  So, I hope that was you on the other side of that trade, Sanjeev, picking up those 48mil shares that were placed...

 

Carl and Ben, I saw all of your posts.  I will respond to them when I get a chance later this week.  It has been quite hectic for me at the office this week.  Internet connection has been sporadic because I have been off site at a training... 

[Guest ValueCarl]

Hmm.....I only know this Sanjeev, and I am always prepared to be wrong in the very short term while I continue to think BIG PICTURE long term. If I had listened to my partners in the past, I would never have bought at sixty-eighty cents pps. You know as much as anyone, that this is a most difficult one to value, and of course, if the Global deal was not consummated, a hammer would be laid down upon the heads owning these shares. I have always believed in the RCV of this company as the starting point for "VALUATION" and that has changed again with Global Crossings assets. Yes, I realize they must produce copious cash against those assets, something I fully expect to be realized over the next few years. That's somewhere around half of Ben Graham's number he is ascribing to me, and includes GLBC which is a very healthy marriage with a high probability of being finished. Who knows? Maybe one day we will be passing those 49MM share blocks across the tape together!  ;)     

[Parsad]

Good luck Carl!  I hope you sell them for $40 a share or more, but sometimes being prudent is a good idea.  Nonetheless, you've suffered the pain, so I hope you enjoy all the gain!  Cheers!

[Guest ValueCarl]

To my good friends and board brothers, if I should enjoy gains such as you point out here because of the kind, giving, loving, great God above who wants to give them to me-(3) is a great deal bigger than little me in what it brings to the UNIVERSE-just think about, at least in one case that I know about on this board, yours, Mr. Parsad, and how your mentor will fare! 

 

I want to grow rich with Big Prem on a smaller scale, and Ben Graham on this board of course!  ;D  I wish I could do it more with "Peace of Mind;" however, like the Napolean Hill book my mother purchased for me when I was a young man. It's been a tough hill to climb, while fighting my own demons from within along the way!   

[Guest ValueCarl]

This money flow chart seems to substantiate a short term bearish bias arriving out of the blue for whatever reasons.

 

http://online.wsj.com/mdc/public/page/2_3022-mflppg-moneyflow.html?mod=topnav_2_3022

[Guest ValueCarl]

I have always loved reading about Wall Street history, especially a book called "Fifty Years of Wall Street," containing a Pre/Post Civil War chronicle of events by business moguls and titans from steamboats to railroads as well as nefarious operators and criminals from Vanderbilt and Drew to Boss Tweed along with his Tammany Hall Gang. The Committee of Seventy who stood up against those thugs in NY should not be missed today. The author of "Fifty Years......," an English transplant and bond dealer, Mr. Henry Clews, was one of those seventy who exercised courage with capital letters. I once opined that Dr. Byrne's group fighting the Wall Street Miscreants today, represented The Committee of Seventy Thousand thanks to the power of the internet! One earlier blogger actually had the decency to ask my permission to use the "catch phrase" I had coined.

 

Interestingly, by side note, T.V. broadcast personality, Anderson Cooper, today, is a Vanderbilt descendant.

 

I am also aware that Mr. Warren E. Buffett likes Wall Street history by recital including his references in teaching environments to the "Northern Pacific Corner," an epic railroad battle of power, influence and control concerning JP Morgan, Harriman and Gould. 

 

Over the years, I have envisioned something similar that would take place in the LVLT security; however, I have asked for it to be a great deal different than the ultimate outcomes that "traditional" corners have caused for their planners and detractors. 

 

For example, the FIVE TIMES trough to PEAK Volkswagen "CORNER" of 2008 was an exciting one to be sure, but when it was over the stock pulled back considerably. 

 

If I should have my "Field of Dreams" it will be a Corner that resembles none other in the history of the financial world while having Mr. Warren E. Buffett's "stamp of approval" on it. I smell it coming, and offer this board some history with the potential of this "deeply discounted" LVLT security to break the mold of prior models by sustaining the value it reaches once the CORNER is done!  ;D It is with great hope and CONVICTION that I want to see sustainable, consistent, persistent, VALUE that is UNLEASHED from this "Network Partner ALL EYEBALLS can rely on!"   

 

http://dealbook.nytimes.com/2008/10/31/porsches-vw-move-too-clever-by-half/

 

 

But there have been successful corners. Cornelius Vanderbilt once pulled one off, with members of the New York City Council as the victims. They had tried to profit by shorting a railroad company Vanderbilt controlled, and then revoking the company’s principal asset, a license to operate a street railway. Vanderbilt bought shares, and kept the price from falling. Owning more shares than there were outstanding, he offered to let the council members cover their short positions with only small losses, if they reinstated the license. They did.

 

The big loser in that corner was a legendary speculator, Daniel Drew, who had proposed the idea to the council members. He was forced to purchase shares at very high prices.

 

It is Drew who is credited with the saying “He who sells what isn’t his’n, must buy it back or go to pris’n.”

 

For the cornerer, there is also the risk that rules will change when powerful people get in trouble. That was one of the things that broke the Hunt brothers’ attempted corner in silver back in 1980. The authorities made it almost impossible to bet on silver prices rising, and the Hunts went broke.   

[Cardboard]

"Our burning desire to have Mr. Warren E. Buffett's "stamp of approval" by joining at the hip with  our Longleaf Partners will be the greatest amalgamation in 100 years."

 

Ok guys, I have had enough! I don't know what is the idea of begging for Buffett to come along here while he left us "die" in the cold rain. Where was he when we needed help?

 

Now is the time to make real money and I mean really big money. We finally got the Street to take a look at this company, it has broken major resistance level on the chart which will bring along the technicians and the bankruptcy/debt fears have been pretty much laid to rest with the Global Crossing merger. Oh! And I failed to mention that this stock is now fully marginable trading heavily and being above $2.

 

The pipelines are now starting to fill up or just like so many have been predicting here for many years, there is no end in sight to this trend and people are getting ready to pay big prices.

 

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-05-26/abovenet-in-play-as-fiber-creates-43-verizon-premium-real-m-a.html?cmpid=yhoo

 

Wait to see the EBITDA growing quarter after quarter, debt being repriced at much better terms and debt actually being paid off. This story will get better and better, there will be tremendous numbers to keep pushing the stock up. On top of that, the story has now moved from U.S. centric to global delivery of data with Global Crossing.

 

Now is the time to be patient, to stay calm when volatility will come for sure and to harvest the fruit of your research. I got out too early from ATSG after already making big bucks. The stock had run up hard and I got worried that it would go back down while everything was getting in place to deliver better and better numbers. It is hard to forget the hardship that one experienced with something, but that is exactly what is needed here. This thing still has more potential than most stocks out there.

 

So no, I don't want that cheap ass Buffett to show up! He had his chance for many years. Now, get lost!

 

Cardboard

[Guest ValueCarl]

Good God, Cardboard! Cursing God out loud on a chat board like this can do one of two things, of which the first is worse than the second:

 

 

1) A Pox on you and your family forever.

 

2) Sanjeev places you in lock down mode and casts you off to The Island of Misfit Toys, where the only greeter left to share your misery there at this time, is yours truly.  ;D   

 

<So no, I don't want that cheap ass Buffett to show up! He had his chance for many years. Now, get lost!>

 

 

Truly I say to you, it is NAIVE for (3) OWNERS not to understand the deep rooted connections of (3)'s GREAT BUILDER, Mr. Walter Scott, to his friend and partner, The Oracle of Omaha, Mr. Warren E. Buffett. To think he is NOT up to his OWN EYEBALLS in (3)'s underlying bonds, are people not paying attention to "securities analysis." 

 

 

Besides, we need a GREAT FINANCIER from the HEAVENS who will finish CONNECTING the 100K Enterprise Buildings which are just 500' from our Network. We can't have Big Prem gouging us at fifteen percent any longer! That's damn expensive money intent on KILLING us!

 

 

Ben Graham is a prophet while stating; The WEB needs WEB, and he's not getting any younger to finish this job so that, the GLOBE's EYEBALLS may use ONE NETWORK FOR ALL!  ;)

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Guest ValueCarl]

Ben Graham, if you're going to sneak convert buyers into the equation on a converted basis, would you like to share any relationships between the 86 year old Loomis bond complex and the WEB?  ;)

[Guest ValueCarl]

Our fellow board member and Lockheed Martin BOD, Admiral James O. Ellis, Jr. must be licking his chops surrounding this incident. They need to LOCK their SYSTEMS DOWN "tight as a tick."

 

http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/05/29/us-usa-defense-hackers-idUSTRE74Q6VY20110529 

 

Those seeking quality leadership skills will do well-The Seven C's-taking copious notes of the Admiral's speech here as well.

 

 

 

 

[yudeng2004]

execuse my ignorance, while i own some level 3, I noticed that revenue hardly grew that much from quarter to quarter, even as bandwidth use has been exploding the past few years.

 

I am curious how is it you guys see this thing going to double digits if its revenues are not growing at least 15-20%/year?

 

If all this bandwidth usage is only going to result in mid-single digit revenue growth, then how is this such a valuable asset?

The situation will improve I am sure, but what I do not understand is how this company is good enough for the stock price to get to double digits?  I can undestand it going to say 4-5, and if someone like google wants to buy it, it could get to say 6-8, but I just don't see the 40's that some people are talking about here.

[yudeng2004]

ben, I understand the idea of being the low cost provider, and in the middle of industry consolidation mode, and the growing bandwidth usage.  but what I do not understand is how it is that this company could be worth the 10-40 some of you guys are touting as opposed to say, 3-5.  These are huge differences in valuation.  It is undervalued either way, but it's very important to distinguish between something that is 50% undervalued vs 90%.  The alloction, entry/exit strategy are all different.

 

I see there could be 10-15% revenue growth, but I am not sure why that translates into double digt stock price.  I can if someone wanted to pay 6-8 to acquire it, someone like google, microsoft, or one of the big telecoms.  But double digit would seem to take a lot more than what the current trend dicatates.

 

My point is more that while we all understand that QUALATATIVELY, the background story is awesome, but quantatively it seems valuation is magnitude all over the place.  This creates a pretty confusing entry/exit strategy. 

 

Personally am willing to value it at 4-5, with potential acquisition price of 6-8, but I got lost when double digt valuation started to get thrown around.

 

Because they have to be a low cost provider, I just don't see how they can grow revenue 30% to get that huge valuation.  But please enlighten me if I am not seeing something, I would jump at any potential 5-10 baggers.

[Guest ValueCarl]

That false flag waving Jay Rock from Virginia with relatives spearheading opaque operations in China must love blaming CYBER ATTACKS on The Chinese, while it gives the man the power to grant his own wish as respects the dictatorial use of spectrum including but not limited to the internet.

 

If Jay Rock had a backbone, he knows exactly what to do! Call upon "The Network Partner You Can Rely On," and tighten up network security "TIGHT AS A TICK" so that, Chinese "STEALTH FIGHTERS" won't appear out of nowhere with US technologies in them as part of "ENTERPRISE CORRUPTION" in concert with LABOR EXPLOITATION X the GLOBE!  >:(

 

If I had my way regarding Jay Rock, I would say "POOF" to him like he said to the internet. Jay, you're gone, you LOST your SENATE SEAT for job poorly done on behalf of your countrymen, now get the hell out of here!      

 

 

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3umHJ8zHV30

 

Said Rockefeller during a Senate hearing: "There's a little bug inside of me which wants to get the FCC to say to Fox and to MSNBC, 'Out. Off. End. Goodbye.' It would be a big favor to political discourse; to our ability to do our work here in Congress; and to the American people, to be able to talk with each other and have some faith in their government and, more importantly, in their future."

 

 

Read more on Newsmax.com: Sharpton Wants FCC to Ban Limbaugh

Important: Do You Support Pres. Obama's Re-Election? Vote Here Now!

 

 

Over the past several years, the U.S. government has become more aggressive in its efforts to tackle cybercrime, developing strategies to beef up government computer systems, expand cooperation with other countries and improve coordination with the private sector. President Barack Obama declared cybersecurity a top priority shortly after taking office in 2009, setting off several government-wide reviews to develop strategies to better secure government, business and public online activity.

 

The Pentagon last May set up a new Cyber Command, based alongside the National Security Agency at Fort Meade, Md., in recognition of the expanding threat against the Defense Department and the need to better coordinate the nation's offensive and defensive cyber operations. The Department of Homeland Security is also slowly employing an automated system -- known as Einstein 2 and Einstein 3 -- to protect government agencies' computer systems.

 

Still, the attacks have continued. William J. Lynn III, the deputy defense secretary, said in January that more than 100 foreign intelligence agencies have tried to breach U.S. defense computer networks, largely to steal military plans and weapons systems designs.

 

China is often pointed to as a source of cyber attacks because a large amount of malware, or malicious software, originates from there. The government denies it is involved but experts say the high skill level of some attacks suggests the Chinese military, a leader in cyberwarfare research, or other agencies might be stealing technology and trade secrets to help state companies.

 

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Lockheed-attack-highlights-apf-4094039948.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=2&asset=&ccode=

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Guest ValueCarl]

yudeng2004, how do you MEASURE what you have yet to see with any accuracy? How much longer will the power of the internet be held back from being unleashed by The Masters of the Universe including clowns like Jay Rock?  The combined (3)/Global Enterprise will be standing with break even PP&E conservatively at $37.5B. It will comprise of 1000 direct salespeople and a plethora of indirect sales channels including system integrators and resellers to the US govt. as one revenue stream example.

 

On that basis, assuming that's the starting point for investors believing bk is not an option any longer after free cash flows start accumulating consistently and persistently, that's somewhere inbetween $8-$9 pps. Where do we go from there?

 

Back to my first question!  ;) Value curmudgeons will exit comfortably at $3-$4 pps along with you. Every individual investor's MILEAGE will VARY predicated upon their own assessment of IV using the variable components which comprise this tool.         

[Guest ValueCarl]

Speaking of jay rock, and his ilk embedded inside JP MORGAN CHASE , it seems they have found some internet "RELIGION" since choosing (3) as their BACKBONE CDN provider.

 

Of course, we haven't seen those scoundrels give permission to release the NEWS on the WIRES just yet, but had to hear it from our CEO during his early introductory remarks to shareholders at the ASM.

 

I pray that jay gets thrown away for not willing to play with the internet; by his PEOPLE in West Virginia who have tolerated him to stay for way too long!  >:(

 

 

[bmichaud]

Unfortunately I am just now looking into this idea after its tremendous 100%+ move, but I just have a couple of questions.

 

1) Perhaps I am 10K-illiterate, but where does (3) come up with $25B+ of gross PP&E pre-Global Crossing?

 

2) I am going to start reading through the prior posts, so this question has probably already been answered, but why all of the sudden going forward is (3) going to become profitable? Why going forward will they be able to improve pricing and/or utilization? Is it that (3) has this massive infrastructure that has not yet been fully utilized? Is that what you guys (Ben Graham and ValueCarl) are banking on, improved utilization due to massive growth in internet usage?