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Guest ValueCarl

Within the same framework of thinking, one can envision a day where any "piece of content" can have its value determined on a "time sensitive" basis by tracking viewer ship at any moment in time. It can apply broadly as well as individually. For example, instead of Netflix paying Starz $200MM on eyeball "assumptions," Netflix can pay Starz for its Disney/Sony distribution rights based upon eyeballs received. Heck, in the case of Starz' business model, why does Netflix need them at all-wasteful middlemen-versus going DIRECT to Disney and Sony for their content being produced relative to the same "eyeballs received" concept?

 

I had alluded to this supply/demand content concept regarding Katie Couric on this board before. Cut an internet deal based upon "factual" eyeballs(household IP addresses) received based upon the "technologies" for tracking same. Define the amount of eyeballs tied to an IP address, i.e., size of household.  One would fast learn the speed at which consumers become bored with a content's value and useful lives when such a tracking system is in place. With so much choice and fragmentation simultaneously, I would venture to say that, you wouldn't see vastly overpaid personalities like Howard Stern, or Ryan Seacrest, or name your personality who is earning tens of millions of dollars annually much to the chagrin of those carrying the distribution expenses.  :P You might see a few for some specified period, but they would truly be worth it as a result of known supply/demand factors being received.  

 

At the same time, I see it's silly media business as usual tethered to the dumb em down T.V. while scanning Brker_guy's Apple streaming music news that he just provided including other links.

 

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/06/06/business/media/06couric.html?pagewanted=1&_r=1

 

 

The details of Ms. Couric’s impending deal with ABC have not been disclosed, but as co-owner of the show Ms. Couric will claim a share of the profits. Syndication has such a great financial upside because successful shows make money from both station fees and advertising revenue — and they are generally inexpensive to produce.

 

One of the chief negotiators in pursuit of Ms. Couric, speaking anonymously last week because of the confidential nature of the talks, said, “We all know what we’re looking at with a successful syndicated show — $100 million to $300 million a year” in revenue. As host and co-owner, Ms. Couric’s own take each year could be tens of millions of dollars.          

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Guest ValueCarl

Brker_guy, please update the board on what this means versus Cisco's "compression technology" which had been, not too long ago, announced as a solution for compressing "quality signals" at site venues before they got to the "broadcasting studios" as I recall. I believe we broached upon this subject earlier. My understanding has been that (3)'s venue site streams are native or pure, and go uncompressed all the way to the studios. 

 

Based upon my earlier understanding, Csco was attempting to muscle into a piece of (3)'s stream business with their technology, and it appears (3) has the full solutions and capabilities to apply their own compression technologies during the different stages of transmitting the signals without Csco equipment. Please clarify any points I am missing, or may have misunderstood inclusive of which point in the signal transfer process, "compressing" becomes most beneficial especially if I messed up the point where Csco's tech begins to "compress" signals.

 

Then again, could this be Csco equipment being branded by (3) at the broadcasting studios?   

 

The enterprise voice solutions are also interesting inside of this press release. tia   

 

 

Level 3 will be able to provide FOX Sports with live video backhaul services for all Major League Baseball games aired during the current season using its VenueNet+ services. While enabling high-quality broadcast encoding for video delivery from major league baseball venues back to FOX Sports' production headquarters in Los Angeles, FOX Sports will also be employing Level 3's JPEG 2000 compression, which is an integrated service designed to enhance the production and operational workflow for the customer.

 

http://sports.tmcnet.com/applications/articles/182598-level-3s-vyvx-venuenet-services-be-used-fox.htm

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Carl, without going into the technical details of JPEG 2000, I don't think it's too important to focus on the compression technology that CSCO "develops" and "deploys" versus how LVLT "deploys".  Notice how I didn't say anything about LVLT's compression technolology development there.  A company like Vyvx would take what is good out in the market(Certainly JPEG 2000 is one of the best CODEC out there) and "integrates" with LVLT's network.  There are some fine tuning of the JPEG-2000 compression at Vyvx, but there isn't any development.  JPEG 2000 is a a wavelet-based algorithm.  It's not the newest compression technology out there like H.264, but it produces image quality.  JPEG 2000 are widely used in DSLR cameras, but you can also use it for video broadcasting.  JPEG 2000 scales very well with dynamic bandwidth and provide better quality control for error prone network. JPEG 2000 was adopted by the Digital Cinema Initiatives for digital cinema development.  DCI has members like Fox, Disney, Sony Pictures, WB and all of the major movie studios...

 

As I said earlier, JPEG 2000 is very effective in broadcasting and still cameras.  JPEG 2000 is also used in DVR, and it's very effective in DVR... What is also unique about JPEG 2000 is that one single stream of JPEG-2000 video can be simultaneously distributed to different video viewing platforms (i.e. mobile phone, tablets, SDTV and HDTV).  JPEG-2000 is ideal for low latency network like LVLT's.  However, it's not IP network friendly and it's a lot less compression efficient than MPEG-4/H.264.  That's why broadcasting is a more suitable platform for JPEG-2000 than H.264. With JPEG-2000 deploying in Broadcasting, it's very easy to edit video captured in JPEG-2000.  You can't do that with H.264 easily.  With MPEG-4/H.264, licensing and royalty fees are a pain in the...  I am not saying that JPEG-2000 is better than H.264.  They both have their advantages and disadvantages depending on how they are used.

 

In the case of Fox and LVLT that you described below, I believe that JPEG-2000 is the right CODEC to use. 

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Guest ValueCarl

Is it not fair to say that, the internet technologies and ability to track "eyeball patterns and interest" to the nearest "household" in real time at any snap shot in time, puts the Nielsen Rating System out of business ultimately? Doesn't this feature-data mining-become proprietary and exclusive to the distribution systems delivering content to end users? I would speculate that historically, there has been a false sense of security established by traditional content providers and their distributors in developing rates for advertisers, and pricing for artists who have been grossly overpaid by such previous misleading measuring sticks.  ;)

 

 

This portion of their business goes the way of the Do Do Bird assuming content owners and/or distributors get "control" of the data which is representative of their customers' viewing and buying habits. 

 

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/pr?s=NLSN+Profile

 

Its What Consumers Watch segment provides viewership data and analytics primarily to the media and advertising industries across television, online, and mobile devices. This segment offers television audience measurement, online audience measurement, mobile measurement, and three-screen media measurement services.

 

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Guest ValueCarl

Good God, Stortz is back! Break out the BEER from his Omaha roots because we must have a LEGAL WIN coming which he had once started! It would be a miracle retrospectively!   ;D

 

http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/794323/000110465911033439/a11-14422_18k.htm  

 

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Thomas-C-Stortz-Rejoins-Level-prnews-3444977101.html?x=0&.v=1

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Guest ValueCarl

Disney says, DVD SALES are PLUNGING. As a result, layoffs...........

 

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/AP-source-Disney-to-lay-off-apf-507862822.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=main&asset=&ccode=

 

Most of the people work in home video distribution, which was merged with the theatrical distribution division late last year, the person said.

 

DVD sales have been plunging industrywide and the studio is looking to cut costs.

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Guest ValueCarl

Blue Ridge Capital and John Griffin were "exempt;" therefore, did not violate rules much to the chagrin of Jay Rockefeller and will keep current Net Operating Losses(NOL's) Carry Forward unchanged.

 

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Level-3-Determines-prnews-3955082107.html?x=0&.v=1

 

BROOMFIELD, Colo., June 6, 2011 /PRNewswire/ -- Level 3 Communications, Inc. (NASDAQ:LVLT - News) today announced that its Board of Directors has determined that the acquisition of more than 4.9 percent of the company's shares of common stock by an institutional investor, as reported on a Schedule 13G filed with the SEC on May 23, 2011, is an exempted transaction for purposes of the stockholder rights plan adopted by the company on April 10, 2011 to protect the company's federal Net Operating Losses (NOLs) (the "NOL Rights Plan").

 

http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/794323/000090266411000998/0000902664-11-000998-index.htm  

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Guest ValueCarl

T-REX is advertising on T.V. with mention of T-MO as though this is a done deal already. They should be sanctioned on that basis alone for jumping the gun and attempting to garner public mind share prematurely. 

 

Txlaw, what makes you so sure their "wireline" ops are up for grabs? 

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T-REX is advertising on T.V. with mention of T-MO as though this is a done deal already. They should be sanctioned on that basis alone for jumping the gun and attempting to garner public mind share prematurely. 

 

Txlaw, what makes you so sure their "wireline" ops are up for grabs?   

 

I'm not sure, but I do think that if the deal goes through, that means that the government has decided or conceded that the mobile wireless last mile market needs to be an oligopoly market in order to work, for technical reasons and, perhaps, national security reasons.  (Perhaps brker_guy can weigh in on the technical need for large providers in this space?)

 

If this is the case, I would not be surprised if AT&T is forced to actually start investing heavily in its network, and the best way to give them the capital to do this would be for them to divest their wireline ops, or at least a portion of them. 

 

Also, I recently and fortuitously spoke to a fellow who works at the GAO and who has done research in the past related to the wireless spectrum shortage.  He had no inside information, but he seemed to think that the deal would go through.

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I'm not sure, but I do think that if the deal goes through, that means that the government has decided or conceded that the mobile wireless last mile market needs to be an oligopoly market in order to work, for technical reasons and, perhaps, national security reasons.  (Perhaps brker_guy can weigh in on the technical need for large providers in this space?)

 

If this is the case, I would not be surprised if AT&T is forced to actually start investing heavily in its network, and the best way to give them the capital to do this would be for them to divest their wireline ops, or at least a portion of them. 

 

Also, I recently and fortuitously spoke to a fellow who works at the GAO and who has done research in the past related to the wireless spectrum shortage.  He had no inside information, but he seemed to think that the deal would go through.

 

Well, I am very indifference about this T-Rex/T-Mobile merger, to be frank...I don't the merger will force to sell of its wireline asset due to anti-monopoly practices, but it's more with the fact that T-Rex might need the cash to build out its 4G network. Knowing the T-Rex that I used to know them, they will likely cut corners and spend as little as they can to upgrade their network without incurring debt.  The less they will do this at the expense of their balance sheet, the more they will likely take that option.  I don't know if we(LVLT) want to take a bite of that apple.  It might not be as juicy as we think.

 

A more strategic approach for us to take might be to buying up Sprint's wireline asset and help Sprint as well as CLWR build out their 4G network.  The Sprint/CLWR/LVLT combo might make better strategic sense than pay up for that rotten apple known as T-Rex. 

 

Regarding spectrum, Ben, 700MHz is like prime real estate.  It's like having a home with a beach front view.  Not everyone can afford to live there.  BTW: I just found this Sprint petition against this T-Rex/T-Mobile merger:

 

http://lammgl.files.wordpress.com/2011/03/11-65-05-31-2011-sprint-nextel-corporation-2-of-2-7021675883.pdf

 

Pay attention to page 69.

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I'm not sure, but I do think that if the deal goes through, that means that the government has decided or conceded that the mobile wireless last mile market needs to be an oligopoly market in order to work, for technical reasons and, perhaps, national security reasons.  (Perhaps brker_guy can weigh in on the technical need for large providers in this space?)

 

If this is the case, I would not be surprised if AT&T is forced to actually start investing heavily in its network, and the best way to give them the capital to do this would be for them to divest their wireline ops, or at least a portion of them. 

 

Also, I recently and fortuitously spoke to a fellow who works at the GAO and who has done research in the past related to the wireless spectrum shortage.  He had no inside information, but he seemed to think that the deal would go through.

 

Well, I am very indifference about this T-Rex/T-Mobile merger, to be frank...I don't the merger will force to sell of its wireline asset due to anti-monopoly practices, but it's more with the fact that T-Rex might need the cash to build out its 4G network. Knowing the T-Rex that I used to know them, they will likely cut corners and spend as little as they can to upgrade their network without incurring debt.  The less they will do this at the expense of their balance sheet, the more they will likely take that option.  I don't know if we(LVLT) want to take a bite of that apple.  It might not be as juicy as we think.

 

A more strategic approach for us to take might be to buying up Sprint's wireline asset and help Sprint as well as CLWR build out their 4G network.  The Sprint/CLWR/LVLT combo might make better strategic sense than pay up for that rotten apple known as T-Rex. 

 

Regarding spectrum, Ben, 700MHz is like prime real estate.  It's like having a home with a beach front view.  Not everyone can afford to live there.  BTW: I just found this Sprint petition against this T-Rex/T-Mobile merger:

 

http://lammgl.files.wordpress.com/2011/03/11-65-05-31-2011-sprint-nextel-corporation-2-of-2-7021675883.pdf

 

Pay attention to page 69.

 

brker_guy, thanks for your thoughts -- your knowledge in this area is invaluable.  If AT&T is still as corner-cutting as you have experienced, then you're probably spot on about buying Sprint's wireline ops instead of T-Rex's.  Also, I believe in the Renesys rankings, Sprint's network ranked third after LVLT and GLBC, so that's another reason why a Sprint wireline combo would make sense.

 

What are your thoughts on the white spaces?  Is a database-driven super wifi network possible?  Could it supplant the high quality spectrum holders' networks?  It doesn't seem likely, but I'm not really aware of the technical details of the white spaces.

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Guest ValueCarl

Thanks for a nice document, Brker_guy.

 

Help me with the LVLT spectrum acquired via Telcove previously. I had thought it was the beach front property you refer to at 700MHz while hearing "Mr. Crowe" opine it to be nose bleeding stuff high in the atmosphere from which his engineers would one day figure out what to do with.

 

However, recently I recall hearing it to be 39MHz or some similar number. What do we have under our bed sheets in the form of valuable spectrum? Please dovetail my question with txlaw's excellent one that just hit the wire.  ;) tia     

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"Also, I believe in the Renesys rankings, Sprint's network ranked third after LVLT and GLBC, so that's another reason why a Sprint wireline combo would make sense." 

 

TxLaw, I believe your comments are correct there.  The last time I look at the Renesys ranking, S is still #3.  If you look at the AS ranking from CAIDA, S is number 5 on the list, but still way ahead of T-Rex:

 

http://as-rank.caida.org/?mode0=as-ranking

 

If you look at the Sprint's earnings last quarter, they are managing their wireline business purely for a cash flow.  I think it's much better for them to move this asset to a more efficient network like LVLT and get the much needed cash to fund the 4G expansion.  For them to be losing out to VZ in the 4G race is sad to see.  S is always ahead of everyone it comes to technology adoption, but they are not getting the good returns on those investments...So, I hope Dan "Hustle" Hesse should stop bitching to the FCC about the anti-competitive nature of the T-Rex/T-Mobile marriage and figure a way to rescue his network partner, i.e. Clearwire, and think about strategic vision for his company and its future...

 

"What are your thoughts on the white spaces?  Is a database-driven super wifi network possible?  Could it supplant the high quality spectrum holders' networks?  It doesn't seem likely, but I'm not really aware of the technical details of the white spaces."

 

Let's put it this way.  Owning the 700MHz might get you to the ocean view, but being able to broadcast in the white spaces is like having the home next to the ocean where you go down and play with the sands everyday...  Those unused analog TV spectrum(aka white spaces) have wonderful signal penetration characteristic which makes it great for wireless communication and Super WiFi transmission.  So, if MSFT has really mastered the fine art of Dynamic Spectrum Allocation(DSA), they might be able to pull off this new service launch. BTW: I just want to share this with you on those 700MHz auction:

 

http://www.wirelessstrategy.com/700auction.html

 

"However, recently I recall hearing it to be 39MHz or some similar number. What do we have under our bed sheets in the form of valuable spectrum?"

 

Carl, I think you mean 39GHz there right?  As you might remember back in those 2006 days when we first bought TelCove, everyone was paying attention to the metro fiber asset, but it's the 300 LMDS licenses in the 39GHz band that gave us that LTE contract with VZ.  At 39GHz, the wavelength is shorter. This is in the microwave area.  When you guys ever drive down a stretch of highway to or from Vegas, look up at the cell towers along the ridges and mountains, you shall see a white circular dish that looks like a drum.  That is the 39GHz microwave dish that carry a lot of backhaul traffic from those towers.  So, go back and read the Telcove PR and see for yourself what kind advantages these LMDS band is for LVLT.

 

http://www.lightreading.com/document.asp?doc_id=94133

 

http://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/level-3-to-acquire-telcove-55760887.html

 

"As part of the transaction, Level 3 will be acquiring over 300 LMDS and 39 GHz licenses covering 90 percent of the population of the United States."

 

Just imagine, this purchase was made 5 years ago and look at how far we have come along.  Incredible foresights those guys in Broomfield had to go after this asset...  Also, see attached document.

 

"brker_guy, everybody is turning to you for so many answers, I feel sorry for you. You need to start charging for all your excellent posts."

Thank you for the compliment, Ben, but all of us are all riding on the same bus.  I am happy to share what I know.  I hope I won't let you guys down with my technical knowledge.  My mom wasted an awful lot of money to get me educated.  It got to be good for something, right? ;D :D If I can learn from you as you guys have learned from me, I feel compensated already.  Everyday, LVLT inches up higher; I(WE) get paid!

 

So, we need to pay attention how LVLT is aligning itself with iCloud, MSFT, GOOG, and AMZN.  We can not have Level (4) to kill us off.  That would be tragic

 

 

 

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Guest ValueCarl

In my mind's eye, I see those little white microwave dishes dangling high on the cell phone towers from long distances I have gleaned overtime. Thank you again, Brker_guy.  ;)

 

This presents a problem for my feeble mind, however.

 

Why? Because it has been my understanding from "Mr. Crowe" up until now that, this spectrum and by default those licenses have NOT been being used.

 

How or why would these physical assets that must be attached to certain towers, not be garnering anything, especially "revenues" for (3) at this juncture, Brker_guy? 

 

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Guest ValueCarl

O.K. my (3) Band of Brothers! If we're going to look back in history regarding hopeful things, I can't tell you how hopeful I have been for way too many years now, as the govt. procurement process for NETWORX has been in default mode in favor of the status quo all on the backs of US taxpayers.

 

There's plenty to be hopeful for inside the government; however, that could come down pike at any moment in time.

 

http://gcn.com/articles/2010/03/08/web-nasa-enterprise-data-center.aspx

 

 

NASA’s NEDC program is the only one of five components in a planned IT consolidation that market research firms estimate to be worth more than $4 billion total for which the agency is yet to issue a final RFP. The NEDC contract would include requirements currently met under the Unified NASA Information Technology Services contract, such as data center operations, facility management, hosting services, and storage services, NASA has said.

 

The enterprise data center program had been estimated to be worth about $1.5 billion by market research firms based on an earlier draft RFP for the project.

 

However, NASA added in its recent notice that the “strategy and consolidation plan will significantly change.” The agency expects the new plan to be completed this fall.

 

NASA said it wants to create a data center consolidation plan to incorporate all data centers, systems, applications and that would include a data center architecture and full enterprise assessment. That approach would allow NASA to design an infrastructure strategy to deal with all its business requirements and  take advantage of opportunities to reduce energy costs and make use of innovations like cloud computing. 

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Carl,

 

"How or why would these physical assets that must be attached to certain towers, not be garnering anything, especially "revenues" for (3) at this juncture, Brker_guy? "

 

Ben is right with this comment, "Like Metamucil, Level 3's 39 GHz spectrum could be a fiber supplement that Microsoft could use along with white space to supplant the high quality 700 MHz spectrum holders' networks."

 

LVLT's 39GHz spectrum serves as the "Middle Mile" solution for the big wireless company.  Dah-dah!!!  Because of Physics limitation, Carl, at 39GHz, LVLT won't be able to go toe-to-toe with VZ or T-Rex, but only serves as their wireless fiber backhaul provider for their wireless data.  A picture attached should give a good view of this...

 

http://wireless.fcc.gov/services/index.htm?job=service_home&id=39ghz

 

Here is the beautiful thing.  When Telcove was part of Adelphia, it was operating by another name: Hyperion.  Now, look who is the second highest bidder of the 39GHz spectrum:

 

http://wireless.fcc.gov/auctions/30/charts/30press3.pdf

 

http://wireless.fcc.gov/auctions/default.htm?job=auction_summary&id=30

 

What is even more beautiful is that none of the big boys(VZ, T, S, T-Mobile etc) went after this auction.  So, you see all of you CLWR doubters?  If you don't believe spectrum have any value, you might like to go as the FCC... As I have stated before and I will state it again.  Spectrum is like real estate.  Unlike real estate, spectrum is a finite asset!

 

Since Hyperion/Telcove owns a good chunk of the 39GHz spectrum, it gives LVLT a competitive advantage in Fiber-To-The-Tower(FTTT) using a combo of microwave and fiber solution for VZ.  So, that is why we got the CLWR account, the Sprint wireless account, the Open Range account, the T-Mobile account, and the VZ 4G LTE account. 

 

Now, our European operation is taking a similar strategy and duplicating in Dublin.  It's a beautiful thing!  ;D :D

 

 

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Guest ValueCarl

The FBI, one of (3)'s U.S. Government clients, is about to get serious on cyber space attacks. Thank God its site is secure.  ;)

 

 

FBI director says to boost efforts on cyber threats      06/08 08:06 AM

 

 

 

WASHINGTON, June 8 (Reuters) - The FBI plans to sharpen its focus on the increased threat of cyber attacks over the next two years, FBI Director Robert Mueller said on Wednesday, in the wake of a recent attack on Google's (GOOG:$519.94,00$0.91,000.18%) email system.

"We will increasingly put emphasis on addressing cyber threats in all of the variations," Mueller told the Senate Judiciary Committee, which was considering an extension of his 10-year term by two years.

He coupled the cyber threat with focusing on terrorism as the top issues he planned to address if Congress agrees to extend his term. President Barack Obama asked Mueller to stay while he reshuffled much of the rest of his national security team.

"The cyber intrusions at Google (GOOG:$519.94,00$0.91,000.18%) last year as well as other recent intrusions highlight the ever-present danger from an Internet attack," Mueller said. Such attacks threaten to "undermine the integrity of the Internet" and victimize businesses, he said.

Mueller said that the FBI needs to make sure its personnel have the necessary equipment, skills and capabilities to confront cyber threats directly.

Google (GOOG:$519.94,00$0.91,000.18%) has said that it detected and disrupted a campaign aimed at stealing passwords of hundreds of Google (GOOG:$519.94,00$0.91,000.18%) email account holders including senior U.S. government officials, Chinese activists, and journalists.

The search engine giant said the attempted attack appeared to come from within China, and the FBI has been reviewing the incident with Google (GOOG:$519.94,00$0.91,000.18%) . (Reporting by Jeremy Pelofsky and James Vicini; Editing by David Lawder

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Something to share with you guys:

 

http://www.ftthcouncil.org/en/newsroom/2011/02/10/global-ftth-councils-latest-country-ranking-shows-further-momentum-on-all-fiber-

 

Sad to see that we rank lower than Slovakia and Slovenia  even though we invented the internet...

 

Carl, I think there is someone at the UN that agrees with you:

 

http://www.scribd.com/doc/56634085/Report-of-the-Special-Rapporteur-on-the-promotion-and-protection-of-the-right-to-freedom-of-opinion-and-expression-Frank-La-Rue

 

“Given that the Internet has become an indispensable tool for realizing a range of human rights, combating inequality, and accelerating development and human progress, ensuring universal access to the Internet should be a priority for all states. Each State should thus develop a concrete and effective policy…to make the Internet widely available, accessible and affordable to all segments of population.”

 

 

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Guest ValueCarl

That's really interesting, Brker_guy. I am sensing wisdom being exercised at the U.N.

 

Whether or not related, and though some might not always like what she has to say, I have been noticing Alice Schroeder's blog as having been inaccessible recently. I happen to be an alien, and enjoy the perspectives that she brings to a host of investment subject areas beyond Mr. Buffett even.    

 

http://www.aliceschroeder.com/

 

Cyber-attacks

80.

 

The Special Rapporteur is deeply concerned that websites of human rights organizations, critical bloggers, and other individuals or organizations thatdisseminate information that is embarrassing to the State or the powerful have increasingly become targets of cyber-attacks.

81.

 

When a cyber-attack can be attributed to the State, it clearly constitutes, interalia, a violation of its obligation to respect the right to freedom of opinion andexpression. Although determining the origin of cyber-attacks and the identity of theperpetrator is often technically difficult, it should be noted that States have anobligation to protect individuals against interference by third parties that underminesthe enjoyment of the right to freedom of opinion and expression. This positiveobligation to protect entails that States must take appropriate and effective measuresto investigate actions taken by third parties, hold the persons responsible to account,and adopt measures to prevent such recurrence in the future.

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