LVLT - Level 3

[brker_guy]

Ok, Carl, here is a candidate company for (3) to do business with.  Another NFLX wannabe:

 

http://www.onlive.com/support/performance

 

http://www.onlive.com/#2

[Guest ValueCarl]

Nice find, Brker_guy. With the gaming component, I don't see how (3) missed this opportunity thus far even while I see TREX as a listed "partner!" It looks to be a bandwidth hog, for sure! Let's hope that Comcast's commitment to not "raise" prices to their consumers on a "metered basis" lasts beyond their yet to be approved, coveted purchase of NBC/Universal!

 

What did you think about their CALLX PR yesterday? Seemed like a very small, Westchester New York, very affluent "hamlet," in Scarsdale-Ben Graham once lived there-assuming not New Rochelle, call center operation with just 27 employees based upon my research for VOIP termination.

 

Sanjeev, thank you. To be sure, there is always more I would like to know! There are few people in this world who understand me the way that you have come to, and who I'm proud to call my friend, even when we disagree as sometimes we have, and inevitably will again. My pill is much more tolerable if you take it with water, and allow digestion to enable the desired effects through the blood stream. Just think, and meditate some!

 

I prefer to give praise to management teams for jobs well done, rather than fight the tide of negativity which for a host of reasons has made LVLT an intolerable investment for the main stream investor so far. I guess that's why the "main stream" will never become wildly wealthy, but it still doesn't save them from being completely wiped out by Wall Street's Den of Thieves for saving them from such risk!

 

Level 3 has taken their owners down many dark, winding roads where mounting casualties continue to pave the trails behind us.  

 

Our fearless General, Jim Crowe, has found recent solace in describing to his war torn soldiers, how linearity is not part of life's journey. We couldn't agree more; however, he still needs to prove to me that, the straight line down in our stock price for almost eleven years, subsequent to the joyous build out phase heading into the tech bust, is not linear.  

 

The company has been through hell while encountering every dirty trick in the book, ones hosted by a band of miscreants, but has still managed to move us to the front lines, with our equity in tact, today. The opportunity is as great as it has ever been for Perma Bulls like me, even while we forge ahead to finish breaking down the oligopolists' castle gates! Berlin is right in our sights for our minds eye to marvel at!  

 

Rather than Bronco's earlier analogy to Anacott Steel in Wall Street 1, I would recommend he liken (3) to Jake's "Green Techology" company in Wall Street 2.

 

Stated differently, I believe in the power of "BANDWIDTH" a great deal more than the speed at which "GREEN TECHNOLOGIES" will reach critical mass at this snapshot in US history!  Let's hope that we have the good fortune to be blessed by certain "financiers" in the background for ensuring "equity" success which confirms that sometimes, business dreams really do come true!  ;)          

[Guest ValueCarl]

It seems that carriers across the globe, with specific focus on Europe and the US, are threatening the technology companies to begin "sharing" in their "COSTS."

 

For me, this is nothing new since that, I began broaching upon that PRINCIPLE with one of the internet's fathers, Dr. Leonard Kleinrock, more than one year ago.

 

My problem with these large carriers; however, is that they've purposely slowed down network investments, quite frankly, stymieing progress in a gallant attempt to protect their MONOPOLIES over what might be best for the long term interests of their customers for more than ten years now! They abandoned selfishly, the Adam Smith principles I wrote about yesterday. They will deserve what they get before this is over.  

 

This hasn't been the case for "The Network Partner You Can Rely On," whose paltry revenue base of barely $3B in "internet dominated," high margin, core network services(CNS), has consistently, persistently, and always with innovation on the forefront of its mind, INVESTED large sums, standing at about $25B in PP&E conservatively, in order that their "END USER" experiences are second to none.  

 

This morning at the UBS Media Investor Conference in NY, I heard (3)'s COO, Jeff Storey, articulate without giving guidance a "growth STORY" in force. I also heard the voice of one popular TALKING HEAD from the investment world, as well as others, FIXATED on COMCAST outcomes.

 

Yes, the BARBARIANS are at their GATES! And, it's about FRICKEN TIME!

 

I would be speculating most assuredly that, THE TECH COMPANIES at RISK including names like Apple, will be looking SERIOUSLY at (3)'s SOLUTIONS inside the final stages of this EPIC BATTLE. imo  

     

   

[brker_guy]

Carl, I don't think (3) would have missed a company like this.  They were launched last year.  After being burned by those startups during the tech bubble days, I think they are taking a cautious approach with this company here.  This is just my guess.  Here is a Wiki on them:

 

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/OnLive

 

I don't know if you saw that Technical FAQ on the minimum BW requirement.  OnLive is recommending 5Mbps connection at home.  So, it's bye-bye time for anyone with a DSL link.   They are doing 720p resolution.  So, imagine if you are streaming NFLX and playing video games from OnLive, Comcast and the MSO will have a hard time keeping up with the BW usage...  Check out their little demo video here:

 

http://voices.allthingsd.com/20101207/dive-tech-onlive-now-more-than-just-a-game/?mod=dive-into-mobile

 

Note what the CEO of OnLive said, "Its not us OR Netflix. Its us AND netflix.”

 

Mr. "Handwaving" Joe at Comcast, I have news for you.  It's time for you to upgrade your BW to the home...  Here are some more info on them:

 

http://blogs.forbes.com/oliverchiang/2010/12/07/onlive-wants-to-be-your-tablets-supercomputer-in-the-cloud/?partner=yahootix

 

Frankly, I am no games-playing kid anymore, but from what I read through these news.  The last mile guys are going to have a BIG problem of BW demand on their hand soon.  I hope they can't be holding (3) or the Tier-1 providers hostage.  That's not right.

 

Regarding CALLX PR, I didn't see it until when I went digging in my Spam mail box on Yahoo! and saw the news that (3) sent me yesterday.  So, I haven't hread it in details to know the jist of the PR.  I think the VOIP business is getting saturated.  I can now make VOIP calls from my iPhone without going thru T-Rex.  Get this, you can even get your own phone number if you are to used an iPhone VOIP App, by passing Mr. T-Rex altogether...  Carl, if you do own an iPhone, download Whistle Phone App to make your VOIP calls for FREE.  These guys make their money from ads that are being pushed to you during the call.

 

Sanjeev, I second Carl's comments to you.  Thank you for moving this to the Investment Ideas area.  That's where it should be.  Thanks for the nice words on us.

 

So, I hear and feel your frustration, Carl.  I have been on and off this (3) gravy train a few times now since 2002.  So, I have seen a lot and endured a lot like you have.  I ran into Mr. Scott a few times in Omaha, and I have the highest of respects for him.  At the end of the days, I hope we will see green pastures(pun intended) for our investment.  You know, I don't know if I told you.  I invested in RCN a few years ago, and I used the same strategy like I did now with (3).  I went long on both the common and the RCN notes.  When RCN hit the wall and filed Chapter 11, I lost all of the value in my common.  However, I loaded up on the notes when they went down to 30 cents on the dollar.  After RCN exited Chapter 11, my bonds triple and then were converted into the new commons.  I made all of my money back from the lost value of the commons and then some.  So, why am I telling you all this?  You might know that RCN came out of Kiewit just like LVLT.  Mr. Scott was the Chairman.  Mr. Crowe was on their board etc...  So, I was made whole from my investment.  Don't know if it was luck or skills, but I always thought that the RCN management treated me with respect.  Look at RCN now.  It's a major metro player and was taken private recently.

 

I don't look for a Chapter 11 event with LVLT because (I hate to say these words) it's too big to fail.  Now, we are doing in era of BW demand from the consumers side, and this is a GREAT THING!  Thank you, Mr. Jobs!  You did it!  You have helped grow BW demand. So, we have to be patience and let this movie plays itself out to the end.  Someone has to blink; I hope it's not (3)...

[Guest ValueCarl]

Brker_guy, you never cease to amaze me! Although I've/we've yet to sell "ONE SHARE," there has been great success in the bonds of both (3) and RCNC, at least as respects this older guy who I have looked after during these battles!

 

As for Mr. Jobs, please sir, please, go "MORE DIRECT" with, "The Network Partner You Can Rely On."  ;D

 

 

 

[brker_guy]

Carl, here is something that Mr. Crowe better figure a way to solve fast as his role as the Chairman of CyberSecurity for Pres. Obama:

 

http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/technology/2010/12/operation-payback-shuts-down-visa-website-in-defense-of-wikileaks.html

 

http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/world/la-fgw-wikileaks-20101208,0,7419495.story

 

This can't be good...

[Guest ValueCarl]

Hmm, and Jeff Storey met an unnamed, "household brand," financial services company in NYC, one that he referenced to that criminal Swiss banker, UBS, who has assisted thousands of wealthier American tax cheats go forth in "Swiss Secrecy" until whistle blowers started causing them to come more clean.

 

We can get into a whole debate on the pros and cons of WikiLeak here, Brker_guy, but I'll refrain except to say two things:

 

1) I find the "checks and balances" provided by WikiLeak to be a good thing, and think Sarah Palin has lost her mind calling for the execution of its captured leader on personal indiscretions. Maybe it's her motherly instinct working on behalf of her brave son, a soldier over there, I don't know! While saying this, you'll be hard pressed to find an American patriot like me, even though it seems like I just dissed my govt.

 

2) If our political hacks and diplomats want to operate as the "rogue traders" they have been historically as well as in "stealth mode," then they know the "Network Partner They Can Rely On," in order to "secure" their nation building in "secrecy" vastly supported by and through "enterprise corruption."

 

It hurts my heart to say these things, except unfortunately, they're more true than not!  :(         

[Guest ValueCarl]

Obama adds more business leaders to work under Crowe, as part of the President's National Security Telecommunications Advisory Committee. Key executives from Sprint, Lockheed Martin, Akamai and others have been included. Maybe their stock prices will be harmed also, based upon this announcement. After all, prestige by power or influence is one thing, but only revenues provide a company a way to pay its bills! 

 

http://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2010/12/08/president-obama-announces-more-key-administration-posts-12810 

[brker_guy]

Carl, do you think the "household brand" financial services company in NYC that Storey referred to is UBS?  My first thought was Citi.

 

I have a whole bunch of opinions on WikiLeaks as well, but I will spare you on my opinion.  I brought it up because I think Cyber Security is a big issue.  BIG ISSUE.  I think the next few wars we will be fighting are in the cyber space.

 

BTW: Did you see the shorts release on (3) today?

 

http://www.nasdaq.com/aspxcontent/shortinterests.aspx?symbol=LVLT&selected=LVLT

[Guest ValueCarl]

I don't know, Brker_guy, because unlike Akamai who drops customer names out of a hat like a cheap trick, (3) remains the CIA. If it was UBS, it didn't show up in their "SELL" rating with a 80 cents pps target that was delivered today!  Of one thing I am certain of today, it's the existence of a very nefarious relationship between the cable and telephone companies along with Akamai in the last mile, surrounding "advertising revenues."

 

There's one other thing that I know for sure, but I don't expect, is the fact that if (3) brought information like this to the market when talking about "long term investments" and "short term pricing problems," they would be shorted into the ground as they have been for using the commentaries that these charlatans used today. Their key to getting to this nebulous number, if and when they do at plus 400 percent today's $1B revenues, mind us, will be through that "advertising revenue" door, one which is very close to consumers and businesses now, and one which borders on invading "privacy" even while they deny same, but substantiate the need for doing so.

 

The audacity of these SOB's shorting us again remains a never ending saga, while TREX's own blogging expert got in on the LVLT Gang Bang today, too!

 

I heard that raspy voice, talking Wall Street head again having made his way up to Boston for Akam's presentation today-he sounded groggier-after the UBS presentation where he asked Storey a question yesterday. He's a real smiley one on t.v. with glasses I think, with a boyish look and charm, but I don't watch t.v. much any longer, especially cnbc, and forgot his name.  

 

 

http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSN0921982820101209?feedType=RSS&feedName=technologySector&rpc=43

 

Akamai supports the delivery of content like music and video over the Internet by navigating less-congested network routes. It also helps with online shopping sites, and the company is usually paid based on how much traffic it handles.

 

It told investors that the company expects pricing to fall "aggressively" ahead, confirming investors' fears that competition was intensifying.

 

But the company also said an increase in traffic would make up for the fall in pricing, and forecast annual revenue to eventually rise to $5 billion. It did not give a timeframe.        

[brker_guy]

Carl, there is a double-edge sword to (3)'s secretive culture with their clients' names.  If they don't release the names, it leaves folks like us guessing left and right.  If they don't release them, the shorts pile on some more.

 

while TREX's own blogging expert got in on the LVLT Gang Bang today, too!

 

Can you explain what you meant there?  I don't know who TREX is.

 

I find that story about AKAM a little comical. 

 

But the company also said an increase in traffic would make up for the fall in pricing, and forecast annual revenue to eventually rise to $5 billion. It did not give a timeframe.

 

I don't see how a a $1BIL company can claim to be getting to $5BIL when there is intense competition and falling prices.  Most important of all, they don't even own their own backbone.  I think Storey really stressed the importance of the backbone of (3) has in CDN as you have heard.

[Guest ValueCarl]

I am sorry Brker_guy, but I had thought I had seen you refer to the special name I have been applying to that ancient dinosaur, AT&T, stock symbol, T, one whose vestigial organs in the form of copper, shouldn't be with us much longer. Like the dinosaurs before them, extinction will be their best course of action. In the meantime, (3) will continue to fight them in the telecom/cable, Jurassic Park Jungle!

 

http://animals.nationalgeographic.com/animals/prehistoric/tyrannosaurus-rex/

 

Check out Mr. Quinn, gettin in, on the gang bangin! Wasn't Quinn also played by fantastic actor, Robert Shaw, in JAWS? Oh, that's right, he played the shark hunter, "Quint," but that's close enough.  We know what happened to him in the end!  ;D  

 

http://blogs.wsj.com/digits/2010/12/09/att-joins-comcast-on-level-3s-enemies-list/

[Guest ValueCarl]

Lions and Tigers and Bears, Oh My!

 

If Sarah Palin really wanted to look for people to hang for treason, she needn't go much further than the "stealth" Den of Thieves who operate on "Wall Street." This is a finely tuned, finely organized, extremely dangerous network, via "communications links" today, of market meddling, insider trading, CRIMINALS working each tick. 

 

These manipulators will stop at nothing to pick pockets, by the "minute" thanks to HFT systems more recently, as they orchestrate through "behavior modification" principles, crowd or traders' own moves.

 

They're ringing the BEARISH BELL from HELL again! Ding, ding! But (3) always seems to help the SOB's with a "seasonality" sales claim, and lack of the necessary SALES PUNCHES that must be thrown for their crucial, non-negotiable "internet" services, daily, weekly, monthly and yearly!

 

Name me another big name SALES WIN, and let's go on with this! 

 

http://www.tradershuddle.com/20101209131318/Candlesticks/bears-taking-over-level3communications.html

 

[Guest ValueCarl]

Brker_guy, Akamai phantoms in that hardly mentioned other venue, are wondering why their share price is getting "hammered"?

 

Quite frankly, they don't understand how "HAMMERS" work yet! ckza understands it, however.

 

Re: why is AKAM getting hammered today?????   

 

"Hammered" is hardly a word to be used in the price of this "security" thus far. If you want to understand how Wall Street hammers "long term investments" in companies who have invested $25B in capital in order to keep the internet working, and ones who are competing in "addressable markets" with these MONOPOLISTS' in the last mile who are housing Akamai's equipment for "FREE" in some cases, possibly as high as $100 Billion per annum and even more as "bandwidth" prices change according to "use patterns" versus the nebulous five billion these FOOLS are spewing to "Mr. Market," wait around some, and SEE how Wall Street HAMMERS!!!

 

Yes, SEEING via VIDEO is BELIEVING, and it's finally here today!

 

Woe to Akamai's share holders at today's NOSE BLEEDING PRICES and corresponding P/E's where "GROWTH" has now been forestalled in favor of, "The Network Partner Content Owners Will Rely On!" IMO

[brker_guy]

Hi Carl,  sorry for my slowness.  :)  Yes, I have referred to T as T-Rex before, but didn't know that it could be written as TREX as well.  :)

 

Definitely we are getting ganged up alright...  Now, I am going to wish that T-Rex dies quickly.  When VZ comes out with their new iPhone on VZ, look out below.  T-Rex doesn't know the meaning of churn yet until 2011.

 

It seems to me that the bears jumped on us when the NFLX news was released.  Don't know why, but (3) seems to have a few enemies.

 

That's laughable that the AKAM shareholders complaining of getting hammered.  They don't know what hammering is yet until a few more quarters of margins deterioration on their part. Mr. Storey said it Wed.

 

BTW: I found Mr. Storey's comments about moving the CDN closer to the wireless towers very interesting.  This has been a debate for nearly 10 years now of bringing multimedia services to wireless devices on how to accelerate contents and cut down latency.  Ten years later, it is finally happening...

 

[Guest ValueCarl]

Excellent points, Brker-guy, and if I heard CEO, Paul Sagan and his minions over at Akamai talking correctly about wireless at their December Fair, I believe it presents some "problems" for them. 

[brker_guy]

That's right, Carl.  If you listen to Mr. Storey's comments about where the CDN market is heading for wireless, you will see that AKAM is at a disadvantage since they are not anywhere near the base stations.  So, how do they solve that?  They would see to be as close to the towers as they can.  Now, let's see how long and how fast they provision nearly 500K of towers around the country.

 

Remember the other day when i gave kudos to Mr. Jobs for accelerating the BW consumption by putting out devices that are BW hungry?  Well guess what?

 

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-12-07/apple-google-asked-to-pay-up-as-europeean-operators-inundated-by-data.html

 

Looks like this Comcast/Level 3 fight is only the beginning.

 

 

[Guest ValueCarl]

Prem Watsa article with (3) holdings mentioned.

 

http://www.gurufocus.com/news.php?id=116706

[Guest ValueCarl]

Hey Brker_guy, I notice this character, Bronco, considered a "hero" on this board, has a throbbing desire for bashing LVLT. I wonder what they did to him? I am curious as well, how one gets demoted from "hero" to something less significant? l know if we talk about conspiracies or sinister, insidious plots, that we're censured, banned from these books of "investment life" entirely.  

 

 

Bronco

Hero Member

 

Posts: 604

 

 

 

 

Re: Money needed to retire - poll

« Reply #11 on: December 10, 2010, 10:15:04 AM »

Quote

You need at least $49 million in LVLT stock and another $1 million in cash if you want to have a NPV of $1m.

 

[StubbleJumper]

Hey Brker_guy, I notice this character, Bronco, considered a "hero" on this board, has a throbbing desire for bashing LVLT. I wonder what they did to him? I am curious as well, how one gets demoted from "hero" to something less significant? l know if we talk about conspiracies or sinister, insidious plots, that we're censured, banned from these books of "investment life" entirely.  

 

 

Bronco

Hero Member

 

Posts: 604

 

 

 

 

Re: Money needed to retire - poll

« Reply #11 on: December 10, 2010, 10:15:04 AM »

Quote

You need at least $49 million in LVLT stock and another $1 million in cash if you want to have a NPV of $1m.

 

 

Carl,

 

You don't get demoted, you can only get promoted.  The descriptions are based entirely on the number of posts you make, not on their contents or relevance.  In your particular case, I suspect that you'll get hero status based on your LVLT posts alone.  Others will go 5 or 6 years posting one fabulous post per week and will eventually get hero status.  These people (ex, benhacker) are the true heroes in my mind.

 

SJ

[brker_guy]

Carl, I don't know what is the history of Mr. Bronco and LVLT all about, but he sure is negative on it.  Sometimes, people can't let go of the loss that they have been dealt by Mr. Market?  That would be my only guess.

 

Warren and Charlie spoke at length about "envy" being the worst of all sins.  I have suffered many losses on other investments that were dealt by Mr. Market, but I have chosen to move on instead of beating myself over it.

 

I hope Mr. Bronco will find it in his heart to do the same.  As Warren and Charlie say, "There are many ways to go to Heaven."

[brker_guy]

Carl, for your reading pleasure:

 

http://arstechnica.com/tech-policy/news/2010/12/did-the-fcc-just-bless-a-capped-two-tier-internet.ars

 

http://www.broadcastingcable.com/article/461004-Cantwell_Inslee_Net_Neutrality_Rules_Should_Apply_To_Wireless.php

 

These idiots at the CTIA don't get.  They will NEVER get it...  I know why the CTIA is being run by a former NFL jock!  Sad!!!

 

http://www.broadcastingcable.com/article/460945-CTIA_We_d_Consider_Suing_Over_Net_Rules_If_More_Wireless_Regs_Added.php

[Guest ValueCarl]

Thanks StubbleJumper. I'll have to pay more attention to "Benhacker," someone worth reading, as you imply. I remember an interesting gentleman, Ben Keaton, aka, Benkea, who in the past decade on the LVLT boards, ended up focusing intensely on the bonds after he became convinced that the equity had a long way to go, if ever to go successfully at all. He was an impressive "value add on" to the financial message boards, one with quick wit, no nonsense style, and a razor sharp mind for comprehending all of the numbers in play. Sadly, he met his own destiny racing his Porsche on a San Diego, California speedway, circa 2005.

 

 

If we don't see the regulators send a "resounding message" on behalf of the best interests of "consumers" in this Comcast/(3) dispute, with potential comments that might be released by or before next Tuesday, excluding some "shot heard round the internet world," this equity might prove Bronco right for another 8-10 years.

 

That being said, considering this forum is a value investor's safe haven, I'm disappointed that I might be "DUPED" into believing that some phantom was a "HERO," when in fact he may just post a lot..   

 

For that reason, I recommend a change which somehow incorporates qualitative and quantitative measuring sticks in order to depict the "effectiveness" of our foolishness individually on this board. As if our board host, needs another "task" in his busy investment life!  ;D   

[Guest ValueCarl]

This does not compute. Why not mention the competing "network owner" who took Netflix away? They do mention Limelight though. Goldman holds a control stake in them, of course. When is Mr. Market going to get it through his thick skull that, the "internet" needs one "beautiful blonde," this bandwidth harlot who ensures bountiful connections for all to work and play with! Yes, one which was built on a "technology model," whereby insatiable bit desire is rewarded with "per unit" price reductions without energy loss during the exchange; always encouraging further innovation and development.  In a world like that, everyone on the "outside" can have sexy bandwidth without harbingering "jealousy" or dare I say, "ENVY." Do you hear me Brker_guy!  ;) 

 

These people have no clue how to dance, yet alone dance with the long term "star." 

 

 

http://www.cnbc.com/id/40664349?__source=yahoo|headline|quote|text|&par=yahoo

[Guest ValueCarl]

I know this FUNCTIONAL PSYCHOPATH who thinks and writes like me! Let our BANDWIDTH BARBARIANS wreak havoc on all of their LANDS, PROPERTIES and POSSESSIONS! As a result of the incessant FAMINE which the monopolists' have delivered unto their SUBJECTS during the modern age, these bandwidth barbarians who have arrived at their GATES, should leave NO PRISONERS standing!  imo

 

Re: The Goldman Sachs Bandits(LVLT)?       

For more than a decade, I have become aware of certain gurus in Fool Land, ones who understood the "bit business" inside and out while dismissing the LVLT long haul model as DOA in advance of "VIDEO" going "ON NET."

 

Today, I must warn you all again, WOE to AKAMAI owners while I see those same gurus pointing to blood pouring out of AKAM's model now that video has arrived.

 

When you watch your favorite news programs, be sure to duly note while taking copious notes, various broadcast owners' moves to involve the EYEBALLS watching their programs from which they have garnered mind share as a result of earlier traditional t.v. models, moving their audiences to online vehicles including "Facebook" and various other "APPS" for interacting with their program as well as "hosts."

 

The internet wave which Level 3 Communications(LVLT) built its Smithsonian Awarded network for, not the defense company, LLL, where a business relationship or "connection" could be made, is now upon us and there's no turning back!

 

Woe to Akamai shareholders for relying on last mile MONOPOLISTS and OLIGOPOLISTS to make their bed.

 

A tornado is heading straight for their HOMES where servers have been placed, and freeloading was commonplace! Like all military battles where the theater of operations tied to the conflict has been moved up to the "edge," you can expect nothing less than a CLUSTER F*** ensuing. The "Good News," however, is the Bandwidth Sheriff who is finally NEEDED on the SCENE, is better for the MASSES than not, as a result of their "technology model" embedded inside the internet which has overtaken telecom and cable as the more "cost effective, efficient" choice and solution. IMO