Myth465 Posted January 3, 2011 Author Share Posted January 3, 2011 Its crazy. ATPG has been my main oil and gas focus, but SD is quietly up a huge amount given that I own the Leaps. We have permits with ATPG and asset sells with SD. Life is good. Just have to figure out when and where to take chips off the table. Right now I am considering selling ESV leaps as a way to move a bit out of oil and gas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Myth465 Posted January 4, 2011 Author Share Posted January 4, 2011 http://comedymeltdown.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/05/borat_great_success-450x337.jpg Up 7%. Kind of sad. My money was in the wrong accounts, and I wish I bought more yesterday. I may buy today. Hopefully this one has legs and sticks around. http://www.google.com/finance?q=NASDAQ:ATPG When do you think we will get clarification on what the hell the press release means? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sdev Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Myth, Don't let the price bump make you emotional. You own a lot of it, and even more as of yesterday. More fat pitches will come through, they always do. Also, the way the market views this stock, it's definitely not unimaginable that it dips again and you're able to complete what you wanted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Swizzled Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 "When do you think we will get clarification on what the hell the press release means" I'm not too worried about the press release. I think the fact that they are letting companies go back to drilling exploration wells is all that matters. If they are doing that then permits for development wells (which is all that ATP has) will come soon enough. I've had a long bumpy ride on this one. I'm ready to be rewarded with a higher stock price. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Myth465 Posted January 4, 2011 Author Share Posted January 4, 2011 Myth, Don't let the price bump make you emotional. You own a lot of it, and even more as of yesterday. More fat pitches will come through, they always do. Also, the way the market views this stock, it's definitely not unimaginable that it dips again and you're able to complete what you wanted. Thanks for the analysis Swizzed. Sdev you have a point ATPG has a way of disappointing every single time. I cant imagine what its like for those that were in prior to Horizon. Its been a 2-3 year struggle. For me its been about 7 months watching and 5 months owning and its a nerve racking deal. Its tough not to push in more because the same happened with my biggest winner to date ATSG. At some point most of the material risks were gone and the fog had cleared. You could have pushed in at $2 and sold at $8 without any of the drama of those who owned in 2008. I think we are getting close to there now, and will be there once the permits are in hand. With that said, I agree with you and will wait a bit because we will likely trade down at some point. The goal for me is to sell off my basis at some point and let the rest ride, maybe exercise my options towards 2012 and make this my primary oil play. I think they can get $60 or so for the assets if they stop playing so close to the fire and become boring old operators. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alertmeipp Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 some insider selling from management. not so good. :-\ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Myth465 Posted January 6, 2011 Author Share Posted January 6, 2011 Just for tax reasons per Management. Also pretty small positions. But ya, selling is always ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Swizzled Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Selling of a tiny amount of shares by 3 guys who exercised restricted stock and sold to cover the tax bill is meaningless. Unrelated I think another deepwater permit got approved today http://valueinvestorcanada.blogspot.com/2011/01/deepwater-permit-tracking-another-one.html Tick, tick, tick...........ATP's is coming, wish I knew the date !! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Myth465 Posted January 7, 2011 Author Share Posted January 7, 2011 Myth, Don't let the price bump make you emotional. You own a lot of it, and even more as of yesterday. More fat pitches will come through, they always do. Also, the way the market views this stock, it's definitely not unimaginable that it dips again and you're able to complete what you wanted. Looks like you were spot on today would have been a much better day to buy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sdev Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 I refuse to believe that "it's all good" at ATP until oil is flowing from the new wells. I won't be making any money on timing that stuff but ain't nothing wrong with being a slow old boring long. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Evolveus Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Hi guys, I've been following the thread but I don't currently have a position. I ran across this paragraph about half way down in a recnt article and thought it would be of interest to shareholders: "Interestingly, last week the company changed the compensation package for its CEO to include a payment of three times salary, should the company be acquired. This is a huge incentive for management to get the company acquired, which could be great for shareholders because the company is undervalued." Original article: http://www.fool.com/investing/small-cap/2011/01/10/3-small-cap-stocks-on-fire.aspx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
merkhet Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Interesting. Thanks for the news evolveus Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Swizzled Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 I think a sale of the company is a real possibility after the next two Telemark wells are producing. At that point in time virtually all of ATP's Gulf of Mexico properties will be PDP which removes a lot of risk for potential acquirers. The CEO is 67 and his core management team are also all 60ish. I think that would be the best way to realize value here as the stock market is likely to always apply a discount given the debt involved. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Swizzled Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 I think ATP just got the permit for the MC754 pipeline http://valueinvestorcanada.blogspot.com/2011/01/i-think-atp-just-got-their-pipeline.html This well has been sitting and completed just needing a short pipeline since June 2010. Will add likely 15% 4,000boe per day to existing production. I'd rather it be one of the Telemark permits, but this is helpful. And at least shows the government is slowly working through permits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ourkid8 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 HI Swizzled... I really appreciate your analysis on this company as I did purchase a position at $16.35! :) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alertmeipp Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 4000 net to ATPG? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Swizzled Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 "4000 net to ATPG" Something like that, can't remember the oil/gas split off hand but it is a good sized well. ATP has a 75% interest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alertmeipp Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 so they will get near 15% jump in production in weeks - a good start for the year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sdev Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 The company was written up in Barron's past issue. Basically stated the facts and doesn't change anything, however getting the company on the radar of investors who would be interested and didn't know about the company before is nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Myth465 Posted January 24, 2011 Author Share Posted January 24, 2011 Really nice bounce. Last week was brutal for my leaps. sdev you were right, we always seem to get a better price at some point. Anyone have a link to the article, I have read alot about it and probably should just read it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sdev Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Yeah your leaps are probably back to feeling pretty decent. Have you looked at Seahawk Drilling at all (hawk)? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Myth465 Posted January 24, 2011 Author Share Posted January 24, 2011 Yeah your leaps are probably back to feeling pretty decent. Have you looked at Seahawk Drilling at all (hawk)? Yep I think them and Hero are lottery tickets (though they would have worked out well if purchased during the moratorium). I own ESV and switched some ESV (have made 100% on it due to leaps) for DO which was one of the worst performing stocks in the S&P. The way I see it is all rigs have to go back to work before HAWK and HERO really get their utilization up. I dont buy the liquidation value for HAWK (they weren't liquidating) but now they do seem a bit more open to it. The rigs are old, and one of the better ones for HAWK couldnt even jackup. I haven't looked too closely recently, but 5 months ago I thought they were better shorts than longs. Better to find a high quality driller which hasnt run than buy those lower quality assets inmo. Its tough, I think high oil prices will break the back of the recover, so I wont to own stocks which will run with the cycle. You could end up with a low share price and $70 oil waiting for HAWK to play out. I guess you could say the same about ATPG, but I think we will have things sorted by Mid Year. DO is being put under alot of stress, but I think its fairly undervalued and is worth at least $100. You can buy leaps at a break even of $85 and would double your money should it hit $100. Many of their high spec semis are earning no revenue due to the defato moratorium. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ericd1 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Quite a lift today... +10.2% on 2.5x avg volume... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alertmeipp Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 Blowout containment part of drilling permit snag Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sdev Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 If you bought all you wanted to buy I would suggest just sitting back and enjoying other things rather than monitoring their every move. Permits, no permits, delay, no delay...it's like being in the passenger seat while teaching somebody stickshift. By next year things will most likely have fallen into line and few years down the road, with a little luck, shareholders might be a lot more wealthy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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