Myth465 Posted February 9, 2011 Author Share Posted February 9, 2011 If you bought all you wanted to buy I would suggest just sitting back and enjoying other things rather than monitoring their every move. Permits, no permits, delay, no delay...it's like being in the passenger seat while teaching somebody stickshift. By next year things will most likely have fallen into line and few years down the road, with a little luck, shareholders might be a lot more wealthy. This is the smartest thing I have read all day. I agree with you and will sell the little bit I just recently (thesis was wrong, was expecting a quick permit in early Q1) bought and will let my core position ride. I have till 2012 and its Managements job to fight the good fight. Time to find other things to do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alertmeipp Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 I agree as well. But selling some Feb call against some of my positions will be interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Myth465 Posted February 9, 2011 Author Share Posted February 9, 2011 Humm thats not a bad idea. I may just sell calls against my leaps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Myth465 Posted February 17, 2011 Author Share Posted February 17, 2011 This is getting quite interesting. We are up 2% - 3% a day over the last week or so. I think its all related to permit chatter. SD is up about the same each day either related to acreage or increased oil and gas prices. It would be nice to take some off the table, but that doesnt seem wise given the catalysts. Where do you guys put this thing value wise. I have seen projections all over the map based on NAV (very high) and Cash Flow (pretty high). My starting point was $24 which is where we were trading pre horizon. I figured we were worth at least that given the new reserves, resolved liquidity issues, and new wells coming online. Quite exciting. Hopefully more and more permits come out and we finally get ours. Hopefully we are hedging at these high prices. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Munger_Disciple Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 Myth465, Do you have any opinion on MCF? Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Myth465 Posted February 17, 2011 Author Share Posted February 17, 2011 I watched for a while and never bought. It sold off when gas went to $6 and Sellers lost his shirt. I owned a tiny tracker position for a while, but never went all in. I dont like gas and dont see a recovery outside of a short term spike. If I had to guess I would say it trades at a discount to NAV and the real upside is if they are able to find more cheap gas / oil. I prefer sticking to oil and pretty much invest similar to this guy - Eric Nuttall. http://valueinvestorcanada.blogspot.com/2011/02/nuttall-again.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed:+CanadianValueInvesting-StudyOfBuffett+(Canadian+Value+Investing+-+Study+of+Buffett)&utm_content=Google+Reader Perhaps I shouldnt say that both my Oil and Gas plays are turn arounds and NAV plays lol. I think he thinks about things in the right way. Small / Mid cap, current production, cheap on cash flow, upside in semi known reserves or new production. ---- Ken Peaks knows oil and gas though and is a good jockey in this space, if you are playing a gas turnaround I think there are better way. If you are betting on Ken Peaks and future exploration I think its a pretty good bet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Munger_Disciple Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 Thanks Myth. It is kind of odd that oil is trading so high while natural gas is so cheap. Perhaps natural gas is a contrarian bet given that everyone hates natural gas..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Myth465 Posted February 17, 2011 Author Share Posted February 17, 2011 Thanks Myth. It is kind of odd that oil is trading so high while natural gas is so cheap. Perhaps natural gas is a contrarian bet given that everyone hates natural gas..... True but its not a typical situation to me and I dont have a 3-4 year time horizon like everyone claims to. What will get gas prices higher outside of dramatically increased usage or a fracking ban? We will have dramatically increased usage, LNG, and electric vehicles / replacement of coal but that all takes years. I just dont see the turn, so I think gas will trade around its average cost plus 10 - 15%. You will earn a good return but not a great one inmo unless you have a low cost producer. I only get excited when someone can produce gas around $1.50 to $2 all in cost. The BTU ratio makes no sense. These things are direct substitutes and oil is a world wide product. It would make perfect sense if we could simple fill our cars up with nat gas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ericd1 Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 Does anyone know at what price gas-to-liquid technology becomes viable? Somewhere above $100/bbl LNG will replace diesel fuel in trucks... There's also solid-to-gas-to-liquid (using coal) but I expect that process uses more energy and is more expensive. But it is another reason for Buffett to buy a coal mine! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alertmeipp Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 this one was up when I went to work this morning. :'( i think the ME mess will make ppl realize NAV at GOM and NS deserves higher premium than many other places. Anyone catch anything interesting in the latest presentation? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goldfinger Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 Last time I checked (last week) Bromwich talked about delivering permits within a few weeks time. Fingers crossed ::) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ourkid8 Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 What a nice 7% jump on the following: ATP Announces Strategic Expansion into Offshore Israel... Let's hope we get our permits soon!!! :) http://finance.yahoo.com/news/ATP-Announces-Strategic-bw-207858971.html?x=0&.v=1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Myth465 Posted February 24, 2011 Author Share Posted February 24, 2011 ATPG appears to trade in no relation to oil and sales off or rallies purely based on permits (minus this bump here). I will be glad to have the permit situation behind us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alekbaylee Posted March 1, 2011 Share Posted March 1, 2011 Noble Energy gets first Deepwater permit since BP Oil spill. Hope ATPG is next... :) http://www.gurufocus.com/news.php?id=124165 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goldfinger Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 Feldman puts pressure so that ATPG gets its permits quickly now! http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Interior-action-ordered-on-2-apf-126213237.html?x=0&.v=1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alertmeipp Posted March 7, 2011 Share Posted March 7, 2011 The fed replies back and said "don't force us or we will have to deny applications". They said the other apps are just not ready in current form. But they do expect some more permits will come soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Myth465 Posted March 7, 2011 Author Share Posted March 7, 2011 The fed replies back and said "don't force us or we will have to deny applications". They said the other apps are just not ready in current form. But they do expect some more permits will come soon. This is like a soap opera lol. I have given up on watching the day to day. Hopefully we get the permits before oil prices fall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alertmeipp Posted March 7, 2011 Share Posted March 7, 2011 I hope the oil fall back to 80-90 bucks quick. We don't need $100 oil to make a killing on this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Myth465 Posted March 7, 2011 Author Share Posted March 7, 2011 I hope the oil fall back to 80-90 bucks quick. We don't need $100 oil to make a killing on this. True but I want to take a bit off the table towards the top ;D. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alertmeipp Posted March 7, 2011 Share Posted March 7, 2011 if they get their permit soon, 2-3 years later - we are looking at a company producing 70-80k boed - where is the top? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Myth465 Posted March 8, 2011 Author Share Posted March 8, 2011 if they get their permit soon, 2-3 years later - we are looking at a company producing 70-80k boed - where is the top? Well short term top. I am a bit overtended and want to sell my trading leaps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Myth465 Posted March 17, 2011 Author Share Posted March 17, 2011 I bought yesterday for a trade. Additional $10 ATPG leaps. Pressure has to be unbearable to issue permits. $4 gas, $100 oil, mideast issues, and now Japan and a potential slow down in Nuclear development. Not to mention thousands of jobs. Then you have Clinton saying its retarded. I am a left of center kind of guy, but Obama's and MMS are ganna have to give pretty soon. Application is approved. Not sure why we got down to $16 with such a near term catalyst. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Bronco Posted March 17, 2011 Share Posted March 17, 2011 Jan 2012's - $25 strike - trading for $1.75 WTF? I know zero about this company, but Myth - would you buy-write on this? Conversely, a $15 put is only $2.75. Interesting in my view. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Myth465 Posted March 17, 2011 Author Share Posted March 17, 2011 Jan 2012's - $25 strike - trading for $1.75 WTF? I know zero about this company, but Myth - would you buy-write on this? Conversely, a $15 put is only $2.75. Interesting in my view. I dont really write. I wouldnt buy it though. I went deep in the money. The $10 one was $7 something. We should trade up but $25 is a bit ahead of ourselves, I dont know if we will be at $30 by year end and thats what you need to make money on something like that. I think $22 - $25 is a lock and due to this being more of a trade I wanted something where if we got to $22 I could sell it and make money. We dropped 20% in 4 days, I just wanted to capture that. A rally to $30 would be quite nice though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sdev Posted March 17, 2011 Share Posted March 17, 2011 Jan 2012's - $25 strike - trading for $1.75 WTF? I know zero about this company, but Myth - would you buy-write on this? Conversely, a $15 put is only $2.75. Interesting in my view. Bronco, that is one juicy collar. Sky high call skew on this name. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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