Myth465 Posted March 18, 2011 Author Share Posted March 18, 2011 ;D Congrats. Rumor is we have our permit. Perfect timing if its true. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sdev Posted March 18, 2011 Share Posted March 18, 2011 http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/03/18/usa-oil-drilling-idUSWNA401820110318?feedType=RSS&feedName=companyNews&rpc=43 Happy Friday ATPG owners. Now if only management could hit their quoted 90 day turnaround to get it producing...fat chance of that! :P Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goldfinger Posted March 18, 2011 Share Posted March 18, 2011 Happy Friday ATPG owners. Congrats to all of us shareholders! ;D Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alertmeipp Posted March 19, 2011 Share Posted March 19, 2011 Good news - Still leveraged. Hope oil stay high enough so that they can hedge extra 15k. One analyst crashed the management pretty good on leverage balance sheet in the last CC. But if things go right, 2012 should bring in some cash... 2014 will be on the time where the company will be cash cow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest broxburnboy Posted March 20, 2011 Share Posted March 20, 2011 This may put the kibosh on any new drilling in the Gulf: http://www.examiner.com/environmental-news-in-tallahassee/potential-new-deep-water-oil-spill-gulf-of-mexico-100-mile-sheen-reported Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vanshon Posted March 20, 2011 Share Posted March 20, 2011 Hopefully this is all it is: http://www.nasdaq.com/aspx/stock-market-news-story.aspx?storyid=201103201128dowjonesdjonline000174&title=us-coast-guardreported-gulf-slick-likely-silt-from-dredging Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Myth465 Posted March 21, 2011 Author Share Posted March 21, 2011 This may put the kibosh on any new drilling in the Gulf: http://www.examiner.com/environmental-news-in-tallahassee/potential-new-deep-water-oil-spill-gulf-of-mexico-100-mile-sheen-reported I am in New Orleans and just saw this on the news. I think drilling is here to stay, they were hit twice with the spill losing fishing, tourism, and oil jobs. The damage is done, might as well drill for more safely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alertmeipp Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 Absolutely shocked by the mute response to the permit. :'( almost turned red today. ??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sdev Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 Absolutely shocked by the mute response to the permit. :'( almost turned red today. ??? Does it really matter how the traded? Only thing I care about is that they produce more oil, and actually make money. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Myth465 Posted March 22, 2011 Author Share Posted March 22, 2011 Absolutely shocked by the mute response to the permit. :'( almost turned red today. ??? I am shocked too but it makes sense. I plan to take all my trading shares off at $20 and just hold the stock. I dont think we will see much action until they drill a well or 2 and increase production. If one steps back and thinks rationally ATPG is one grey swan away from disaster. Similar to SD and CHK they will need to stop playing so close to the line for Mr. Market to really value them properly. They should be money good by September or year end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sdev Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 Absolutely shocked by the mute response to the permit. :'( almost turned red today. ??? I am shocked too but it makes sense. I plan to take all my trading shares off at $20 and just hold the stock. I dont think we will see much action until they drill a well or 2 and increase production. If one steps back and thinks rationally ATPG is one grey swan away from disaster. Similar to SD and CHK they will need to stop playing so close to the line for Mr. Market to really value them properly. They should be money good by September or year end. Yeah exactly. They are walking a very thin line and so are we as investors. The upside will take care of itself when they stop the bleeding with the new wells actually online. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alertmeipp Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 well... staying for the permit news was stupid move then. much smarter to buy in after the news than holding it through it. I expected to see low 20s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Myth465 Posted March 22, 2011 Author Share Posted March 22, 2011 well... staying for the permit news was stupid move then. much smarter to buy in after the news than holding it through it. I expected to see low 20s. As do I. We may get there by the end of the week, but I think we are the only ones who really care about the permit. I think everyone else wants break even cash flow and a plan for the debt. It makes sense, ATPG cant really absorb any shocks, the business model doesnt allow for it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alertmeipp Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 that was the reason why I think the permit is important to them and expected the share price will appreciate "beautifully". Without the permit, they can't go + cash flow. now we are talking about 14k barrels within the next 100 days. (I assume 2nd permit will come soon). Wrong again. Not the first time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Myth465 Posted March 22, 2011 Author Share Posted March 22, 2011 Wrong again. Not the first time. You were right, just not yet :) Its a great position, I have just let it grow to big. Time to pair it back, and find something else to do with my time lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sdev Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 that was the reason why I think the permit is important to them and expected the share price will appreciate "beautifully". Without the permit, they can't go + cash flow. now we are talking about 14k barrels within the next 100 days. (I assume 2nd permit will come soon). Wrong again. Not the first time. I'm not 100% sure but I think this is wrong. They have one permit, which they say should have a "90-day turnaround" to production. Anybody who has done their due diligence on ATP should know that odds are it will take longer than that. After that, if they have the permit in hand for the second well, it would be another 90 days for the next well to come online. So you're looking at june earliest for 7k and probably sept earliest for the next one. In addition, if you recall they had a flowtest last feb for the first telemark well that went very well, however when it started producing in april, it produced at 3.5k and really hasn't shown any better results. My point from this rant is nothing is certain per say, and given ATPs lackluster record at delivering on schedule (pre moratorium), and it's dogshit (pardon) balance sheet, we shouldn't be that surprised that it still sells a what we feel is a discount. That being said, I'm long. 8) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alertmeipp Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 No argument there. My rant is it's a poor decision to hold before the permit. The additional 7k in next 90 days de-risk the company quite a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goldfinger Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 No argument there. My rant is it's a poor decision to hold before the permit. The additional 7k in next 90 days de-risk the company quite a bit. Who knows with Mr Market. This thing can take off at any time if some more positive news (not necessarily other permits) comes by (like production increase for example). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Myth465 Posted March 22, 2011 Author Share Posted March 22, 2011 No argument there. My rant is it's a poor decision to hold before the permit. The additional 7k in next 90 days de-risk the company quite a bit. Ya we will likely move up as the well is drilled, and with conferences and what not. The stock will go up. The timing is just ...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alertmeipp Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 it's like SD. After they announce the new play, I know it's going to fly - just a matter of time. Better sooner than later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gfp Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 http://www.bloomberg.com/video/67902946/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Myth465 Posted March 23, 2011 Author Share Posted March 23, 2011 http://www.bloomberg.com/video/67902946/ Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
abcd Posted March 24, 2011 Share Posted March 24, 2011 There was discussion of a new spill on this thread a day or two ago. More info on this: http://www.nola.com/news/gulf-oil-spill/index.ssf/2011/03/houston_company_accepts_respon.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sdev Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Looks like Francis Chou scooped ATP bonds while they were being dumped. Wish I could have bought those instead of the equity. I remember seeing them sub 70 cents on the dollar. Pair that with a coupon that was almost 12% of face, wowza! They are over par now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Myth465 Posted March 30, 2011 Author Share Posted March 30, 2011 Yes a similar thing happened with ICO and FBK. I am noticing a trend. In the future I will buy the bonds and then the common once the bonds recover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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