Myth465 Posted May 24, 2011 Author Share Posted May 24, 2011 Humm, something interesting or another fools rally? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alekbaylee Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 I think it's due to this : http://www.thestreet.com/story/11130681/1/court-enters-final-judgment-on-gulf-of-mexico-deepwater-drilling-permits.html and Goldman Sachs Group Inc. that it is turning "more bullish" on raw materials. Goldman Sachs suggested buying oil, copper and zinc, reversing last month's call to sell commodities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Myth465 Posted May 24, 2011 Author Share Posted May 24, 2011 You always feel smart when things go up, and never seem to trade out. At least thats the case for me. Then the doubts come back on the downside. Thats what makes a market I guess lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alekbaylee Posted May 26, 2011 Share Posted May 26, 2011 ATP Completes Drilling Phase At Deepwater Gulf Of Mexico Well Block 941 A-2 well located at ATP’s Telemark Hub, and all pay sands in the MC 941 A-1 well were present essentially confirming pre-drill estimates First production from this well is expected in the early part of the third quarter. http://www.thestreet.com/story/11134499/1/atp-completes-drilling-phase-at-deepwater-gulf-of-mexico-well.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sdev Posted May 26, 2011 Share Posted May 26, 2011 Summary of annual meeting here: http://messages.finance.yahoo.com/Stocks_%28A_to_Z%29/Stocks_A/threadview?m=tm&bn=1612&tid=146058&mid=146058&tof=9&frt=2 and continues here: http://messages.finance.yahoo.com/Stocks_%28A_to_Z%29/Stocks_A/threadview?m=tm&bn=1612&tid=146100&mid=146100&tof=5&frt=2 As always, take what is being said on that board with a grain (or mouthful) of salt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Myth465 Posted June 15, 2011 Author Share Posted June 15, 2011 I am starting to see why Swizzled gave up on ATPG.... I am getting there, starting to look for an exit. I thought they had improved in terms of how they dealt with the market, but I spoke too soon. Hopefully I can get out with a decent gain. I dont feel like an owner with these guys, I feel like the patsy at the table... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goldfinger Posted June 15, 2011 Share Posted June 15, 2011 I am starting to see why Swizzled gave up on ATPG.... I am getting there, starting to look for an exit. I thought they had improved in terms of how they dealt with the market, but I spoke too soon. Hopefully I can get out with a decent gain. I dont feel like an owner with these guys, I feel like the patsy at the table... I sold before the recent correction for the same reasons. It felt too risky too... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Myth465 Posted June 15, 2011 Author Share Posted June 15, 2011 I can deal with risk. Hell I own TAT, but I cant deal with Management changing plans every other week. I thought we were done with debt, but it just keeps getting piled on. Convertible debt at that. Israel is nice, but lets get our house in order now. I am at a very small loss on my options due to premium, and could have booked a 40% gain at some point. It seems dumb to sell, so I am looking for the next pop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sdev Posted June 15, 2011 Share Posted June 15, 2011 >:( Couldn't be more annoyed with this management team. Why they are planning $30m+ in capital spending for Israel with a 20% of success when their business model is the opposite seems to me like they are going for the proverbial hail mary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alertmeipp Posted June 16, 2011 Share Posted June 16, 2011 The reserves in Israel would be huge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Myth465 Posted June 16, 2011 Author Share Posted June 16, 2011 Ya but 100 or 1 million times zero is still zero. These guys refuse to listen to anyone. Debt is just piled on for the new flavor of the month. Why not get fair value for your gulf reserves. I mean you think your reserves are worth $60 + dollars a share, so why not do what it takes to get far value for those reserves (reduce debt, live within your means). Even at 75% of fair value you could sell shares to fund what you want. NO CURRENT SHAREHOLDERS BOUGHT THIS COMPANY FOR ISRAEL. We want full or fair value for our gulf / North sea reserves. These guys will get burned one day, perhaps this year with a major storm. They refuse to do anything to make their company more robust. They get paid along the way so inmo they are only focused on increasing the pie and not so much on the downside. Its frustrating. If they hit in Israel, shares will rally to 30. They will add another billion of debt, and we will hobble along for another few years trying to fund the next big thing. All the while sitting on assets worth $100 or so. I dont get it...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gfp Posted June 16, 2011 Share Posted June 16, 2011 http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1123647/000118143111036868/xslF345X03/rrd315490.xml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sdev Posted June 16, 2011 Share Posted June 16, 2011 http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1123647/000118143111036868/xslF345X03/rrd315490.xml Nice gesture, but still doesn't change the facts and figures. They need to get their house in order. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Myth465 Posted June 16, 2011 Author Share Posted June 16, 2011 Israel will be replaced by West Africa or some other spot......... I thought Swizzled suffered through, and I had spoted the turn. Now I am suffering through. As I said I dont feel like an Owner who is aware of the business plan, and watching the show. I feel like the Patsy at the table..... Tom Ward is doing what needs to be done, and is one solid though highly paid Manager. With ATPG I have no idea what they are doing and what their goal is. From what I see, they want to grow the company as much as possible. Regardless of the risks, and regardless of the shareprice from point A to point B. At the end they will seek fair value and sell or mellow out. Its a great plan, but a few hurricanes or a BP spill screws that all up. There is no robustness here. We could easily have $60 oil or any number of other bad things happen... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sdev Posted July 20, 2011 Share Posted July 20, 2011 Have you guys taken a look at the presentation the company posted? Not only was their avg production rate for the last quarter lower than the first, but on the surface, it seems like management is deliberately choosing to ignore the Q2 numbers in their graphs of their results.Their level of transparency only allows the good and holds back the bad. >:( I would be shocked at this point if the next well that has not been approved yet, comes online this year. Also, happy dilution to everybody (converts)! Gotta appreciate how "strong the liquidity position" is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alertmeipp Posted July 21, 2011 Share Posted July 21, 2011 Was really tied up at work these days... what kind of drop between 1st and 2nd Q? I don't expect it to go up as nothing new comes online in Q2.. Q4 should have 7k jump. I thought the 2nd Titan well is approved as well? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Myth465 Posted July 21, 2011 Author Share Posted July 21, 2011 Have you guys taken a look at the presentation the company posted? Not only was their avg production rate for the last quarter lower than the first, but on the surface, it seems like management is deliberately choosing to ignore the Q2 numbers in their graphs of their results.Their level of transparency only allows the good and holds back the bad. >:( I would be shocked at this point if the next well that has not been approved yet, comes online this year. Also, happy dilution to everybody (converts)! Gotta appreciate how "strong the liquidity position" is. More of the same. Still looking to exit at some point. Management is more than annoying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Myth465 Posted August 2, 2011 Author Share Posted August 2, 2011 Humm interesting reaction today. Honestly I think its warranted and makes perfect sense. Management is unable to hit any of their targets and inmo anything coming out of their mouth is garbage. I highly doubt the second well will be on before year end, and have no idea when the well they are drilling will be complete. Once everything comes online I doubt WS will pay up given the Huge Credibility gap which has been established over the last 2 years. I guess a tiger cant change its stripes... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stahleyp Posted August 2, 2011 Share Posted August 2, 2011 myth, are you still up on this position? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Myth465 Posted August 2, 2011 Author Share Posted August 2, 2011 myth, are you still up on this position? LOL no down on options. I now know how Swizzled felt. I can take losses, have had to over the last few months - but Management has no real credibility. I dont understand how one team can continue to be so off in projections. How hard is it to come up with a conservative projection then add 20%. When I hear 90 days to bring a well online, I think ok it will probably take 75 days but they are saying 90 to be conservative. With these guys its 115 days and 90 is the optimistic guess. The permits were largely out of their hands, but I feel like they arent honest with shareholders regarding timing, debt, and liquidity. Its something im not used to. I have seen my top holdings get cut in half, but dealing with Management you cant trust makes it tough to shrug those moves off...... I bought some CHK, am reducing SD, and am looking for an exit in ATPG to put the cash in better managed oil and gas names. Audrey and Ward arent squeaky clean, but they know how to hit targets and talk to Shareholders. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sdev Posted August 2, 2011 Share Posted August 2, 2011 I can't believe management still thinks they will be over 40k by the end of the year, such a joke. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sdev Posted August 5, 2011 Share Posted August 5, 2011 below 10 - wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eclecticvalue Posted August 5, 2011 Share Posted August 5, 2011 Anyone waiting till earnings (Aug 9th)? The stock is being hit right now because of usual market woes and that it is a highly levered company. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Myth465 Posted August 5, 2011 Author Share Posted August 5, 2011 Anyone waiting till earnings (Aug 9th)? The stock is being hit right now because of usual market woes and that it is a highly levered company. I will still own some by earnings. Perhaps I was a bit harsh, but Management should still step up the communication and work on hitting targets..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sdev Posted August 9, 2011 Share Posted August 9, 2011 the way this thing is losing 10+% a day, we'll be at down to 2.25 in 2 weeks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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