ericd1 Posted August 9, 2011 Share Posted August 9, 2011 Myth - What's your perspective about the earnings release... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Myth465 Posted August 11, 2011 Author Share Posted August 11, 2011 A lot of good things, but a lot of negatives. Honestly at this point we are speculating / gambling inmo. If we make it to December with both wells online you win big, if more delays or a hurricane in the gulf you lose big. I really like the oil pre sell, clipper, and hope the well comes in a few days. Cash flow though is down right ugly, and it looks like we really needed the convert issue and oil pre sell. More debt is being piled on via vendor credits and what not. --- This is the most imprudent Management teams I have come across. To pursue Israel with this balance sheet seems very reckless. I prefer the SD style recklessness to this one. I hate the Management but like the assets and value. With that said my 2012 options were significantly underwater at $7, and the ref could call time in 4 months. I figure if things work out you win big especially with Clipper coming on in June 2012 (which really means September). I havent listened to the call, but bought a small amount of $5 2013 calls. I figure I can sell the 2012s for tax losses, and if it works out the much smaller 2013 portion more than makes up for the 2012s. ATPG is always a year away from paydirt but I am a sucker for cheap odds. If I can get out of the 2012s at par with just the 2013s, I will be quite a happy man. Just need a few more days like this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Myth465 Posted August 24, 2011 Author Share Posted August 24, 2011 Finally some good news. Knowing ATPG we will get some sort of slap in the face in a week or so. I feel good about my 2013s, the 2012s are ..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sdev Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Finally some good news. Knowing ATPG we will get some sort of slap in the face in a week or so. I feel good about my 2013s, the 2012s are ..... haha - I have 12s too. When I bought them I thought 2 years would be plenty to sort all this stuff out. Ohhhhh how wrong I was. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Myth465 Posted August 25, 2011 Author Share Posted August 25, 2011 Finally some good news. Knowing ATPG we will get some sort of slap in the face in a week or so. I feel good about my 2013s, the 2012s are ..... haha - I have 12s too. When I bought them I thought 2 years would be plenty to sort all this stuff out. Ohhhhh how wrong I was. Ya I hope to exit my 2012s at par $15-$16, and hold the much reduced 2013 position, those are at $5 and should work out ok. ATPG is the almost there stock, 2012 should have been the year of reward. Somehow I dont think 2013 will go as smooth as it should.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alertmeipp Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Nice run. Wish it was SD tho. Can't really complain in this shabby market. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eclecticvalue Posted August 30, 2011 Share Posted August 30, 2011 I have been enjoying the rally in shares the past few days. All of sudden this happens http://pr-usa.net/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=865811&Itemid=34 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Myth465 Posted August 30, 2011 Author Share Posted August 30, 2011 I have been enjoying the rally in shares the past few days. All of sudden this happens http://pr-usa.net/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=865811&Itemid=34 These things happen every few months dont they, it seems like just another baseless lawsuit. Management has handled operations quite well given the situation. My complaints lie with shareholder communications and their love of debt, but it is what it is. I think its water under the bridge. I was hoping for $18 with a short squeeze. This drop has been quite profitable, my $5 options are very much in the money. Now I just need to hit par on my 2012s..... Hopefully the rally continues. I think 2013 should be a very interesting year for ATPG. Just want to exit 2012 without taking a loss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alertmeipp Posted August 30, 2011 Share Posted August 30, 2011 I sold some at close today. I like SD much better @ current prices. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Myth465 Posted September 2, 2011 Author Share Posted September 2, 2011 I sold some at close today. I like SD much better @ current prices. This proved to be a well time sale. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Josh4580 Posted October 14, 2011 Share Posted October 14, 2011 big move today, up 15% on no news. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alertmeipp Posted October 15, 2011 Share Posted October 15, 2011 for a moment last week, I was going to buy near term option on it.. well... only if I had.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Myth465 Posted October 15, 2011 Author Share Posted October 15, 2011 I bought a few 2013 $5 ones we need 2 more days like this for 2012s to work out, I need the losses for tax reasons, but would prefer to pay the taxes. :) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alertmeipp Posted October 15, 2011 Share Posted October 15, 2011 I suggest you sell some of those 12s everytime you post something like above. ;) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Myth465 Posted October 15, 2011 Author Share Posted October 15, 2011 I have been killed on the 12s with the crash, I am happy to take the losses but will ride it till December, it would suck to sell now only to have q3 and well flow rates / an early well 4 send it back to my brake even. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alertmeipp Posted October 15, 2011 Share Posted October 15, 2011 I have been killed on the 12s with the crash, I am happy to take the losses but will ride it till December, it would suck to sell now only to have q3 and well flow rates / an early well 4 send it back to my brake even. I think/hope SD will run hard soon as well. It is seriously lacking and I have way more SD than ATPG. :-\ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Myth465 Posted October 17, 2011 Author Share Posted October 17, 2011 I cant wait until I have a reasonable oil and gas position. It makes up a massive disproportional amount of my portfolio and these pullbacks leave me hamstrunged. Dont want to take losses, cant add because its too much already. I plan on taking some profits / losses if this rally has legs. SD helps me sleep at night. I cant think of one operational mistake or guidance that Ward hasnt hit. ATPG is like a roller coaster, with the last 4 quarterly releases being big drops..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alertmeipp Posted October 19, 2011 Share Posted October 19, 2011 anyone think ATPG may get some money from BP on the GOM blowup? If they somehow can get ~50% of their revenue lost because of the blowup - that would be a huge win. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sdev Posted November 9, 2011 Share Posted November 9, 2011 Disaster of a conference call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alertmeipp Posted November 9, 2011 Share Posted November 9, 2011 yeah.. #3 well at 3500 now vs. 7000 initial. I think market is priced in #4 well will be ~3500 rather than 7000+ as hoped. So, now they are are 7k bpd shorted plus delay in one other well. On top of that, we are RISK ON today. but it's cheap.. isn't it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Myth465 Posted November 10, 2011 Author Share Posted November 10, 2011 alert sometime you have to learn to call it quits. I wont be adding and am debating selling it all. From where I sit today Management has clearly mislead shareholders and has no credibility... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sdev Posted November 10, 2011 Share Posted November 10, 2011 alert sometime you have to learn to call it quits. I wont be adding and am debating selling it all. From where I sit today Management has clearly mislead shareholders and has no credibility... Yeah, I ended up closing my position for a meaningful loss. Swizz hit this one on the head bailing on management back in March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Myth465 Posted November 10, 2011 Author Share Posted November 10, 2011 Im right behind you ganna hit the gym and think about it as well as dig into the 10q. I am 20 minutes into the call and have read a few summaries on the yahoo boards. My issues. Management actively hid something material inmo. Further more they announced production at 31k and the well coming online at 7k then failed to update till earnings release. Q4 will be 25k-27k, instead of 31k which should have been in the bag. The release and opening comments, talked about the pay sands, but didnt mention current production or reconcile the shortfall in production. Thats just dishonest. I havent dug into the 10q, but the consent selling of hedges, forward oil sales, and talk of monetizing clipper (an asset which looks like a beast) tells me they need cash. They will continue these tricks, and adding NPIs until things hit the fan and they have to raise equity. Share price will probably be $5. I have been here 1.5 years, and they have yet to hit 1 target. I thought the DWH spill, had a material impact on this, but now its just management. They consistently over-promise and under-deliver. Telemark is proving to be a failure with well after well having issues. Big dif between 3.5k and 7k..... Capex will never be covered by cash flows, these guys keep going through the buffet line and picking up new dishes.... ---- Finally I feel like the patsy at the table each quarter. I can deal with failure, can deal with losing money, can deal with underperformance, but cant deal with that. The owners consistently have no idea whats going on with this company. I cant say thats the case with CHK or SD or ATSG or pretty much anything else I own. Werent we supposed to get 2012 guidance... ----- Alert they will be cheap for a while. 2012 production exit rate was supposed to be 60k. 2011 was 40k. Now not sure if 2012 will be 40.......... I just dont see what you see. Assets are cheap and who ever is holding or takes over will come out pretty well, but praying for a takeover is not a strategy I can believe in. These guys will dilute until they cant ..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Myth465 Posted November 10, 2011 Author Share Posted November 10, 2011 Sold early today. A few tax losses and peace of mine. I feel better already ;D Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alertmeipp Posted November 10, 2011 Share Posted November 10, 2011 Down to 7. May soon go cheaper than SD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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