alertmeipp Posted November 11, 2011 Share Posted November 11, 2011 Alert they will be cheap for a while. 2012 production exit rate was supposed to be 60k. 2011 was 40k. Now not sure if 2012 will be 40.......... I just dont see what you see. Assets are cheap and who ever is holding or takes over will come out pretty well, but praying for a takeover is not a strategy I can believe in. These guys will dilute until they cant ..... I agree but I am still holding, I think it's undervalued for its assets. Obviously, the management get sold by their over-promises as well, look at the insiders' buy. You may want to look at their pfd and bonds. They need to show the market they can bridge the funding gap or else they will remain depressed. They have to monetize their infrastructure somehow - they just need to extend timeframe by 12 months - ~250millions financing will do the wonder. A settlement from BP on the blow up will be nice also but I doubt BP will bite as ATP is obviously depressed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Myth465 Posted November 11, 2011 Author Share Posted November 11, 2011 That was the story last year. Here we are 12 months later in the same spot. I may buy Preferred or Bonds because the value is there but it will be at less than 50 cents on the dollar. They are forward selling oil, and slowly running out of cash. Already took the last loan off titan, still using NRIs, and still planning on spending quite a bit of money on capex. Gomez moved to end of 2012. They will likely sell down Clipper and hobble along for a bit longer. I dont think the new well will come on in Jan and dont think it will come on at 7K. I have no faith in Management and cant continue to hold. I can throw a dart in the oil and gas space and find cheap assets. I can name 10 - 20 companies which are severally discounted on a NPV perspective. Its up to Management to turn those assets into cash, these guys cant do it, and lie to me every quarter. SD is selling off significantly, oil is at $95, and Europe is exploding. I am sitting pretty and will hold SD, DVN, and CHK. I dont scare easy, but Management sucks here. They have sucked for 1.5 years under my watch, and for 3 years by anyone elses count. I dont feel like an owner of the company, and that bothers me more than anything else. The only money made here has been made shorting the stock, or lending ATPG money at noise bled rates. Thats the only way I will be back in.... With me selling though there will probably be a take over in a few months lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alertmeipp Posted November 11, 2011 Share Posted November 11, 2011 They still have options to cut their cap ex. If they push back 200millions of it further. It will work out. 26k year end. +7k Telemark +5k Clipper 38k by mid next year. This will be significant flow. Either the management didn't see this coming and they have plans they are still working on. Not disclosing cash on hand and not ready to show 2012 cap ex isn't helpful at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sdev Posted November 11, 2011 Share Posted November 11, 2011 They still have options to cut their cap ex. If they push back 200millions of it further. It will work out. 26k year end. +7k Telemark +5k Clipper 38k by mid next year. This will be significant flow. Either the management didn't see this coming and they have plans they are still working on. Not disclosing cash on hand and not ready to show 2012 cap ex isn't helpful at all. If, If, If. The last two wells were supposed to be 7k+, both are no more than 3500 now, how can you you make assumptions that the next will be 7k? How can you assume clipper will even be online next year? This telemark well that just went online was supposed to be online in june and the next one september - now it is feb earliest. This may end up being a homerun, but thats just what type of pitch you get with this stock I believe, either a strikeout or a homerun, and i dont feel like either one is favored over the other. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alertmeipp Posted November 12, 2011 Share Posted November 12, 2011 I can see why the management are not being trusted here. But I don't see the 3.5k drop and delay of #4 as management mis-execution. Market don't see them able to fund the gap to see the end of the tunnel - I think that while it's possible, the chance is low. And their assets will worth a lot more understand a cash-rich company. They need ~200m just to cover their interest expense. They cash flow is about that much now. A cash rich entity can buy the the company, refinance the debt and enjoy the ~500 millions cash flows end of 2012 plus all the assets. But I don't think they will sell out, the most likely scenario would be: 1. partner the projects to decrease the capex and bring in more liquidity. 2. keep doing O/NRI things to buy time. 3. Direct asset sale. They are done with exploring Telemark and the asset is fully proved out - they should be able to fetch out a fair price for it (maybe they can do a trust? :)) Issues shares IMO is out of the picture - first it can't do much.. Market cap is 300millions vs. 2billions debt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest misterstockwell Posted November 14, 2011 Share Posted November 14, 2011 A Speculative Play on Gulf Drilling By Daniel Dicker Increasing volumes is ultimately what we want as shareholders, if we want to maximize our investments in the oil patch. Growth is the key to big increases in stock prices. So when an old supply that was lost to the oil market begins to come online again -- as is the case in the Gulf of Mexico -- we need to look at who will be best able to take advantage of that supply, and grow production. With global oil prices well above $110 a barrel for Brent, it is the growing E&P companies that are going to deliver better margins and ultimately better stock appreciation. Dec. 14 will mark a fresh start, at least for the leasing of some prime real estate in the Gulf. It will be the first major sale of leases by the Department of the Interior since the Macondo blowout of 2010 caused a six-month shutdown of permitting for offshore drilling. Despite the increased regulation and equipment needed for offshore production after the BP (BP) spill, the GoM remains a prime source of developing new domestic crude and natural gas supply. While BP and Chevron (CVX) continue their commitment to developing new wells in the GoM, smaller independents including Apache (APA) and Anadarko (APC) will yield relatively faster growth. These independent oil companies are already well known to regular readers; I've asserted time and again that they represent some of the best values in the oil patch. But I want to suggest one more, Gulf-of-Mexico-specific, admittedly very speculative name: ATP Oil and Gas (ATP). ATP has a very big problem: Deep in debt from exploration costs and sidelined from its GoM projects since the BP spill, the company has seen its bonds downgraded on fears of a default and bankruptcy. ATP had the very bad fortune of floating its last bond offering a day before the BP spill and has been forced to renegotiate contract payments, delivering royalties on some projects instead of cash. The company's big four-well deepwater project in the GoM has had technical problems and has not yielded as quickly as hoped. Consequently, the stock has been crushed, down from $20 a share at the start of the year to $6.75 on Friday. In order to beat the clock, ATP must mark enough time to increase production while still paying off debt obligations. If it can manage to do this -- which I think is likely -- shares of the company at today's prices could look awfully cheap 12 months from now. If ATP can't walk the tightrope, however, shares will almost surely go to zero. What makes this speculative play interesting to me is the company's pre-eminence in the Gulf as well as its continued interest in bidding on new leases come December. A company that truly believes it is on the verge of bankruptcy doesn't look for new projects to take on. This is a very speculative play in a supply source that is just again beginning to open up. But whether you look at mega-caps, mid-caps or risky small-caps, there is a value to be found now in the deepwater drilling about to restart in the Gulf of Mexico. Have a look at some of these stocks and see if you can find one you like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alertmeipp Posted November 14, 2011 Share Posted November 14, 2011 the decision to hold has been costly last few days. Anyone buying or thinking of doing so at this level? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stahleyp Posted November 15, 2011 Share Posted November 15, 2011 have you guys thought about options on this thing? it's either worth a ton more or nothing from what i've read. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alertmeipp Posted November 15, 2011 Share Posted November 15, 2011 seems like that's the way to go if u want to speculate... I figure March/June next year is the one to look into as management said they will do transactions to enhance liquidity by year end or early next year.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
enoch01 Posted November 15, 2011 Share Posted November 15, 2011 Anybody looking at the 2015 bonds? CUSIP 00208JAC2. 62 cents on the dollar today, with a mild rush for the exits: http://blogs.wsj.com/deals/2011/11/15/have-atps-shares-found-their-floor/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alertmeipp Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 anyone still in this? I sold some commons and bot some calls instead.. can't buy the bond in my sucky RBC account, very tempted to buy the pfd which didn't move much when the common is rebounding. The concern with the pfd is payment can be made in cash or stock. They just announced the next payment 2 bucks will be in cash. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alertmeipp Posted December 13, 2011 Share Posted December 13, 2011 http://www.marketwatch.com/story/atp-marks-successful-clipper-well-test-2011-12-12 PRESS RELEASE Dec. 12, 2011, 8:30 a.m. EST ATP Marks Successful Clipper Well Test HOUSTON, Dec 12, 2011 (BUSINESS WIRE) -- ATP Oil & Gas Corporation ATPG +2.09% today announced the successful completion and testing of the second Clipper well at rates of 9,000 Bbls per day and 4.6 MMcf per day. When combined with the first Clipper well this brings the total test rates to approximately 13.7 MBbls of oil per day and 50.2 MMcf of natural gas per day or 22 MBbls equivalent per day (62% oil). The second Clipper well is the #4 well located at Green Canyon 300 (GC 300) in the deepwater Gulf of Mexico. The #4 well, located in approximately 3,450 feet of water, logged approximately 56 feet of net oil pay confirming reserves previously booked. The 9-5/8 inch casing was set at 15,778 feet measured depth through the pay intervals. In July 2011, ATP successfully completed and flow tested the first Clipper well, GC 300 #2 ST #1, at a rate of 4,656 Bbls per day and 45.6 MMcf per day. The pipeline lay barge for the Clipper wells is contracted for third quarter 2012 and will tie in both the GC 300 #4 and #2 wells to the Murphy Oil-operated Front Runner production facility. ATP operates Clipper and presently owns a 100% working interest. About ATP Oil & Gas Corporation ATP Oil & Gas is an international offshore oil and gas development and production company with operations in the Gulf of Mexico, Mediterranean Sea and the North Sea. The company trades publicly as ATPG on the NASDAQ Global Select Market. For more information about ATP Oil & Gas Corporation, visit www.atpog.com . Forward-looking Statements Certain statements included in this news release contain "forward-looking statements" within the meaning of the "safe harbor" provisions of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995, Section 27A of the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, and Section 21E of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934. ATP cautions that assumptions, expectations, projections, intentions, plans, beliefs or similar expressions used to identify forward-looking statements about future events may, and often do, vary from actual results and the differences can be material from those expressed or implied in such forward looking statements. Some of the key factors which could cause actual results to vary from those ATP expects include, without limitation, volatility in commodity prices for crude oil and natural gas, the timing of planned capital expenditures, availability of acquisitions, uncertainties in estimating reserves and forecasting production results, operational factors affecting the commencement or maintenance of producing wells, the condition of the capital markets generally, as well as ability to access them, and uncertainties regarding environmental regulations or litigation and other legal or regulatory developments affecting its business. ATP assumes no obligation and expressly disclaims any duty to update the information contained herein except as required by law. While ATP does not file reports with the SEC containing probable and possible reserve quantities, ATP occasionally will include them in news releases, presentations and discuss such reserves publicly. ATP and its independent third party reservoir engineers use the term "probable" to describe volumes of reserves potentially recoverable through additional drilling or recovery techniques that, by their nature, are more speculative than estimates of proved reserves. Any estimates of reserves in this news release have been prepared by our independent third party engineers. More information about the risks and uncertainties relating to ATP's forward-looking statements is found in the company's SEC filings or website, www.atpog.com . SOURCE: ATP Oil & Gas Corporation ATP Oil & Gas Corporation, Houston Chairman and CEO T. Paul Bulmahn, 713-622-3311 or Chief Financial Officer Albert L. Reese Jr., 713-622-3311 www.atpog.com Copyright Business Wire 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BargainValueHunter Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 I think this is from a member: http://www.whopperinvestments.com/powerball-ideas-atpgp-atpg-preferred-common The most recent PV-10 (see description here) for ATPG came from their investor presentation found here. In it, they use current strip pricing and their proved reserves from 12/31/2010 (their 10-K) to arrive at a PV-10 of $6.6B. Their total capex for next year should be $75m-125m, with their own cash outlay for capex next year between $40m-100m according to their most recent 10-Q (See page 41). In other words, the market is fretting over a funding gap equal to less than 2% of ATPG’s PV-10. Speaking of PV-10, slide 20 of the presentation linked above puts the potential value of ATPG into prospective. Assuming they are worth their PV-10, the company would have an EV between $5.8B-7.6B. With $2.4B in debt and other obligations, this would put their market cap between $2.6-3.7B (the difference in ranges is from converts) versus a current market cap of $400m. And remember- this ignores the $1b or so in infrastructure they own! This is why bulls keep pointing to a potential per share value over $40. And even if ATPG finds themselves crunched for liquidity, their assets are very high quality with tons of upside. It shouldn’t be hard for them to find partners willing to purchase interests in some of their wells to give them the cash they need to survive. And with more Telemark wells and improved production expected for 2012, it’s possible ATP is finally in a position to start funding themselves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Myth465 Posted February 3, 2012 Author Share Posted February 3, 2012 That post is way off mark. The market is fretting because ATPG cant meet any operational goals, and is chronically overlevered. They just missed another deadline for a well.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alertmeipp Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 that's not a miss but a re-miss. The original was end of last year, then end of Jan, now end of first Q. I own pfds and very little options. I wish they do a deal like SD to deleverage the co... then pfd should fly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Myth465 Posted February 3, 2012 Author Share Posted February 3, 2012 Preferreds or bonds are the way to go here. I am watching, if forced I would short ATPG lol. I have lost enough money here, now I just enjoy the show or err train wreck. Management hasnt changed in 2 years.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alekbaylee Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 ATP Oil & Gas Corporation (NASDAQ: ATPG) today announced it has commenced the process to expand its First Lien Senior Secured Term Loan facility. Based on preliminary estimates of its year-end 2011 reserve report, ATP believes its SEC pre-tax PV-10 of proved reserves will be no less than $4.0 billion and that, as a result, ATP expects it can add borrowings of approximately $140 million to its existing facility, which currently stands at $208 million. ATP expects to have commitments from lenders to participate in the expanded facility no later than early March with the additional funds available after the filing in mid-March of its year-end 2011 annual report on Form 10-K and reserve report. $4.0 billion? Really? I'm being skeptic here... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alertmeipp Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 they won't lie on that. Hopefully, they sell some equity here as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alertmeipp Posted March 20, 2012 Share Posted March 20, 2012 So, I actually get back into commons last couple days. - Year end production SHOULD be around 29-32k (existing) + 16k clipper. - Israel high impact drilling to start May - would double reserve IF success. - 2012 cap ex pretty much all dealt with. - ASSUMING stable commodities prices, cap exp COULD be internally funded 2013. 2nd half milestones: - Octo platform SPV - should net 100m to parent co. - Cherv partner 25% to 75% possible. Having said all of the above, I only bot very small %. I think if I have never been killed with it before, I will buy way more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BargainValueHunter Posted March 29, 2012 Share Posted March 29, 2012 From 3/29/12: ATP Oil & Gas (ATPG) files a registration statement with the SEC to sell $500M worth of a mix of securities and 8.8M shares of common stock. http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1123647/000119312512137871/d321594ds3.htm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alertmeipp Posted March 29, 2012 Share Posted March 29, 2012 duh.. they do finally sell commons? :( should have keep my pfd instead of going into common! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Myth465 Posted March 29, 2012 Author Share Posted March 29, 2012 LOL sorry about that. ATPG is tough, they will keep the lights on but not sure if they will do much else. They are always 1 well away from paydirt... Preferreds or nothing are the way to play. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alertmeipp Posted March 29, 2012 Share Posted March 29, 2012 So it seems like ATPG is not selling that 8.8 millions.. it's filed for some other shareholders. So, the $500 can be anything. Anything prolongs the run time without huge dilution is nice. Some think this may have to do the Israel fund. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BargainValueHunter Posted May 10, 2012 Share Posted May 10, 2012 http://seekingalpha.com/news-article/2778391-atp-announces-first-quarter-2012-financial-results-and-operations-update ATP Oil & Gas Corporation (ATPG) today released first quarter 2012 financial results and an operations update. Results of Operations Production in first quarter 2012 was 2.0 MMBoe (million barrels of oil equivalent) of which 63% was oil and condensate, compared to 2.3 MMBoe in the first quarter 2011 of which 68% was oil and condensate. This falls within ATPs previously-stated expectation of 1.8 2.1 MMBoe for first quarter 2012. First quarter 2012 production includes approximately 0.1 MMBoe from a royalty relief adjustment related to 2011 production. Revenues from oil and gas production were $146.6 million in first quarter 2012 including a $3.0 million benefit for royalty relief related to 2011, compared to $166.5 million with no corresponding adjustment for royalty relief in first quarter 2011. Cash provided by operating activities in first quarter 2012 was $100.9 million, compared to $86.2 million in first quarter 2011. ATP ended first quarter 2012 with a cash balance of $224.7 million, compared to $65.7 million in fourth quarter 2011. ATPs working capital deficit was $267.9 million at the end of first quarter 2012 compared to a $347.5 million deficit at the end of fourth quarter 2011. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alertmeipp Posted May 11, 2012 Share Posted May 11, 2012 Down 10%, more timeline misses, more future revenue sale. The CC was very interesting, callers are taking direct shot at the meaning, one supporting it tho. Worth a listen IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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