saltybit Posted August 7, 2014 Share Posted August 7, 2014 Charles Gold - Scott & Stringfellow Tom, hoping you would go through an exercise with me and get out to the back of an envelope and it's a Markel venture question. Now the run rate and revenue is $1 billion dollars, looking at the 2015 let’s say, if the -- and also factoring in that the metrics you were looking at when you bought companies was roughly six to seven times EBITDA. So the assumptions I would use on the back of my envelope would be next year’s revenue funds in acquisition $1.1 billion that the companies we bought may not have lived up to the six or seven times EBITDA, so I use eight times. So I multiply the 1.1 times, 12.5 and get $137.5 million of EBITDA and bringing half of that to the bottom line in net income and get just under $5 per share in earnings on an annual basis. Is that in the right ballpark or am I thinking incorrect? Tom Gayner - President and CIO I think I will go home and say 2015 is done. Your back of the envelope and thought process is directionally correct. The thing that we can’t take for granted is that these things are always easier to say than they are to do, so there will be immense amount of work to make that happen. But those sort of rough, rough back of the envelope calculations are directionally correct. http://seekingalpha.com/article/2397175-markel-mkl-q2-2014-results-earnings-call-transcript?page=6&p=qanda&l=last Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Liberty Posted August 18, 2014 Share Posted August 18, 2014 Found this on twitter: http://www.andvariassociates.com/markel-mkl-still-undervalued-still-deserves-to-be-in-your-portfolio/ (link to the report in first paragraph) Some nice charts showing historical data on things like the combined ratio, prior loss reserves, gross premiums, etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phaceliacapital Posted August 18, 2014 Share Posted August 18, 2014 Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Liberty Posted August 29, 2014 Share Posted August 29, 2014 http://money.cnn.com/news/newsfeeds/articles/prnewswire/PH00962.htm RICHMOND, Va., Aug. 29, 2014 /PRNewswire/ -- Markel Ventures, Inc. announced today that its subsidiary, AMF/Tromp B.V., has completed the acquisition of Tromp-Pol Baking Equipment B.V. ("Vanderpol") and Den Boer Baking Systems B.V. ("Den Boer"). Vanderpol and Den Boer design and manufacture waffle equipment, handling equipment, and ovens for bakers worldwide. Both companies are headquartered in the Netherlands. Following the acquisition, Vanderpol and Den Boer will be combined with the previously acquired Tromp Bakery Equipment to form Tromp Group, a member of the Markel Bakery Group family of companies. "We are excited to complete the union of Vanderpol and Den Boer with Tromp," stated Ken Newsome, Chief Executive Officer of Markel Bakery Group. "These three companies have worked together for years in a strategic alliance, and now, through this transaction, their customers will be better served by a fully integrated group that can deliver the entire production line. With AMF (pan bread and bun), Reading (baked snacks), and now Tromp Group (waffles, specialty breads, pizza, cake & pie, and cookie), we cover virtually the entire spectrum of baking equipment. We have offices in the United States, Canada, the United Kingdom, the Netherlands, Mexico, the United Arab Emirates, Singapore, and China, making our company a truly global enterprise with vast resources to serve the needs of industrial bakers worldwide." Robert Van Heukelum of Vanderpol and Den Boer will serve as President of Tromp Group. Robert commented, "We are happy to be aligned under the Markel Bakery Group banner. This gives us added stability and resources and the opportunity to partner with trusted, established brands in the baking industry." I did some work on Middleby a little while ago, and that bakery stuff can have great ROIC if done right. Hopefully that's what the Markel subs are like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Liberty Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 http://basehitinvesting.com/some-thoughts-on-markels-intrinsic-value/ More about valuation in general than about markel, but he uses the company as an example so I'll post it here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
100 Shares Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 Markel filed their Q4 13F. http://www.dataroma.com/m/holdings.php?m=MKL Quick calculation based on Q4 ending prices was they net sold about 2% of their portfolio (obviously this is excluding shares that do not need to be on the 13F) Also reduced their BRK.A position substantially likely resulting in a big tax bill. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zippy1 Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 http://finance.yahoo.com/news/markel-reports-2014-financial-results-213400854.html RICHMOND, Va., Feb. 11, 2015 /PRNewswire/ -- Markel Corporation (MKL) reported book value per common share outstanding of $543.96 at December 31, 2014, up 14% from $477.16 at December 31, 2013. Over the five-year period ended December 31, 2014, compound annual growth in book value per common share outstanding was 14%. Comprehensive income to shareholders was $935.9 million for the year ended December 31, 2014 compared to $459.5 million in 2013. The combined ratio was 95% in 2014 compared to 97% in 2013. Diluted net income per share was $22.27 for the year ended December 31, 2014 compared to $22.48 in 2013. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scudbucket Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Anyone going to the Markel brunch during the Berkshire meeting or their annual meeting? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
berkshire101 Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Anyone going to the Markel brunch during the Berkshire meeting or their annual meeting? Yep, I am! It should be fun. I already registered for the brunch. Hope to see everyone there! :) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
matts Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Anyone going to the Markel brunch during the Berkshire meeting or their annual meeting? Yep, I am! It should be fun. I already registered for the brunch. Hope to see everyone there! :) Where can you register? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cubsfan Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Anyone going to the Markel brunch during the Berkshire meeting or their annual meeting? Yep, I am! It should be fun. I already registered for the brunch. Hope to see everyone there! :) Where can you register? You can call Markel Investor relations - they will give you a name to send an email to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
berkshire101 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Anyone going to the Markel brunch during the Berkshire meeting or their annual meeting? Yep, I am! It should be fun. I already registered for the brunch. Hope to see everyone there! :) Where can you register? You can call Markel Investor relations - they will give you a name to send an email to. Here is the link: http://markelbrunch2015.markelcorp.com/?em=537 Click on the RSVP button to register. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
100 Shares Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 Markel filed their 10-K yesterday. Its on their website (https://www.markelcorp.com/about-markel/investor-relations) under SEC filings. No annual report or letter yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Partner24 Posted March 20, 2015 Share Posted March 20, 2015 The annual report is available: http://phx.corporate-ir.net/External.File?item=UGFyZW50SUQ9Mjc2MTQ1fENoaWxkSUQ9LTF8VHlwZT0z&t=1 What a great business Markel is. That's the kind of business that you can go on an island for 10 years and not worry too much about what will the business will look like when you'll come back. The "energizer bunny" will have kept walking... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
twacowfca Posted March 21, 2015 Share Posted March 21, 2015 The annual report is available: http://phx.corporate-ir.net/External.File?item=UGFyZW50SUQ9Mjc2MTQ1fENoaWxkSUQ9LTF8VHlwZT0z&t=1 What a great business Markel is. That's the kind of business that you can go on an island for 10 years and not worry too much about what will the business will look like when you'll come back. The "energizer bunny" will have kept walking... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Liberty Posted March 23, 2015 Share Posted March 23, 2015 http://brooklyninvestor.blogspot.ca/2015/03/markel-2014-annual-report.html http://brooklyninvestor.blogspot.ca/2015/03/markel-ventures.html?spref=tw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
100 Shares Posted April 7, 2015 Share Posted April 7, 2015 I'm still new to investing (about 2 years) and I was looking for feedback on my calculation of Markel's economic earnings. Let me know if you think I am missing anything or anything of the sort. Net Earnings [321M] - Investment and derivative gains/losses [46M] + Look Through Earnings of Stocks [231M] - Dividends from Stocks (Included in Net Earnings and Look Through Earnings, so don't want to double count) [65M] + Amortization of Intangibles [58m] Real Earnings [499M] Thus with Markel at a market cap of 10.8B, it is trading at a multiple of about 22x Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ScottHall Posted April 10, 2015 Share Posted April 10, 2015 I'm still new to investing (about 2 years) and I was looking for feedback on my calculation of Markel's economic earnings. Let me know if you think I am missing anything or anything of the sort. Net Earnings [321M] - Investment and derivative gains/losses [46M] + Look Through Earnings of Stocks [231M] - Dividends from Stocks (Included in Net Earnings and Look Through Earnings, so don't want to double count) [65M] + Amortization of Intangibles [58m] Real Earnings [499M] Thus with Markel at a market cap of 10.8B, it is trading at a multiple of about 22x This probably isn't the best way to look at things for an insurer. Insurance underwriting profitability, for all but short-tail insurers, can be gamed. Markel does pretty consistently over reserves for its losses, so reported profitability is not terribly accurate. For a more accurate approach, and to avoid year-to-year gyrations, I would also take a look at the company's investment portfolio and try to figure out what it can earn on those assets over the long haul. That, combined with an estimate of normalized underwriting profitability, should get you in the ballpark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
100 Shares Posted April 10, 2015 Share Posted April 10, 2015 Thank you for the response. I guess I should give some background on why I want to do this. I was reading the Giverny letters that were discussed recently on these boards and I really liked how he calculates earnings growth year to year as a measure of intrinsic value growth. It really helps you stay focused on business results and not price fluctuation. So I wanted to do the same for my portfolio and I was thinking of a way to measure Markel. With the background, I wonder if your thoughts might change or stay the same. I did give some thought to trying to normalize insurance profitability from year to year. But in the end I felt that it just smoothed out the numbers and would be good for evaluating the earnings power of the business but over the long term it made more sense to look at the numbers as they are and not play with them a little to give smooth results. As far as return on assets for the investment portfolio, I shied away from doing that because once again it takes the speculative approach and also it is very sensitive to inputs. Whereas, if you look at the underlying earnings power of the stocks in the portfolio, it is the growth of this over time that really matters to create the best earnings in 10 years per dollar invested today. When looking at buying Markel, I think one should do all the above: look at it with underwriting profitability normalized and as it is, look at look through earnings, look at potential return on portfolios, look at book value growth, etc. For this I am trying to find the best way to evaluate Markel as a business once you own it. Not sure if this changes your feedback or not, but I do appreciate the comments. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Liberty Posted May 4, 2015 Share Posted May 4, 2015 http://boards.fool.com/markels-silver-year-31739090.aspx Notes from the Markel dinner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
petey2720 Posted May 4, 2015 Share Posted May 4, 2015 Thanks for posting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scudbucket Posted May 5, 2015 Share Posted May 5, 2015 Thanks for posting. I was also at the Markel brunch. Only comment I'll add is that in regards to a potential partner like 3G, Gaynor caveated his response saying that it's not impossible to have someone like that later on down the road if the opportunity were right. What do you think the chances are that Markel gets bought out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rpadebet Posted May 6, 2015 Share Posted May 6, 2015 http://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/markel-reports-first-quarter-2015-results-300079020.html Book Value @ 564. Stk @749. P/B at 1.33 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ScottHall Posted May 7, 2015 Share Posted May 7, 2015 What do you think the chances are that Markel gets bought out? That would make me sick. This company is too good and has such a great runway ahead of it for value creation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
obtuse_investor Posted May 7, 2015 Share Posted May 7, 2015 That would make me feel sick too. It is still a good question to ponder. At what multiple would you tender your shares? 3xBook? 4x? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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