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MKL - Markel Corp


Crip1

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Corp Raider,

 

I apologize. I misspoke with re: WRB.

 

I too have thought that index investing inside an insurance company might be the most sensible way to run the equity portfolio. It's low cost and tax-efficient.

 

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I wish one of these Berk-alikes would just use the S&P 500 or something for their equity allocation and then just make sure to focus on doing a good job in insurance and benefitting from the float and uncorrelated insurance and investment returns and ability to allocate capital based on the opportunities.  I know RLI allocates there, but my understanding is that they don't really grow and maintain the float/leverage with the portfolio appreciation.

 

 

Good point.

 

Even Fairfax with their outstanding investment track record, only added 1.38% by my calculations over the entire period from 1986 to 2014, excluding the CDS gains. Their portfolio as a whole (stock, bonds, cash) grew at 6.12% compared to 4.74% if invested in an appropriate index.

 

Vinod

 

6.12% is 29% higher than 4.74%.  It's not 100% higher, but 29% is not meaningless.  It may be that they can't repeat it going forward, or perhaps they will do worse than markets going forward, but so far it appears to have been worth it.

 

It is unclear going forward that their underwriting would improve if their float were invested in index funds.  Fire HWIC and the underwriting gets way better as a result?  I thought the people involved in underwriting were different from the HWIC people, so how does that work?

 

I do not disagree. What I was trying to say

 

1. Most P&C companies that are trying to copy the BRK model of investing part of shareholder capital in equities would have achieved good results by just indexing. Even without the skill of HWIC, investing this way would have resulted in them compounding book value at most 1% or 2% annually below what Fairfax has achieved.

 

2. Fairfax has been better off due to HWIC, but it was surprising to me how small that advantage was when compared to their actual returns on stock and bond portfolios separately. So a lot of their returns have been eaten up by hedging and asset allocation changes.

 

3. But even for Fairfax, the advantage is small enough that a couple of years of bad returns can wipe out this advantage. This can cut both ways and arguably it is more likely that the recent under performance is likely to be corrected in their favor so the advantage at this point is understated.

 

4. You are correct of course that HWIC is separate from the underwriting team. What I was thinking is that, Prem could conceivably better spent his time trying to buy companies with great underwriting track records rather than trying to buy so and so companies and trying to fix them.

 

Vinod

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I wish one of these Berk-alikes would just use the S&P 500 or something for their equity allocation and then just make sure to focus on doing a good job in insurance and benefitting from the float and uncorrelated insurance and investment returns and ability to allocate capital based on the opportunities.  I know RLI allocates there, but my understanding is that they don't really grow and maintain the float/leverage with the portfolio appreciation.

 

 

Good point.

 

Even Fairfax with their outstanding investment track record, only added 1.38% by my calculations over the entire period from 1986 to 2014, excluding the CDS gains. Their portfolio as a whole (stock, bonds, cash) grew at 6.12% compared to 4.74% if invested in an appropriate index.

 

Vinod

 

6.12% is 29% higher than 4.74%.  It's not 100% higher, but 29% is not meaningless.  It may be that they can't repeat it going forward, or perhaps they will do worse than markets going forward, but so far it appears to have been worth it.

 

It is unclear going forward that their underwriting would improve if their float were invested in index funds.  Fire HWIC and the underwriting gets way better as a result?  I thought the people involved in underwriting were different from the HWIC people, so how does that work?

 

Only 1.38% per year for 30 years? What do you mean only? That makes a massive difference.

 

$10,000 compounded at 4.74% for 30 years is $40,121

The same amount compounded at 6.12% is $59,417 - a near 50% difference in your ending amount. That's a massive difference - anyone who thinks otherwise is welcome to remit 1/3 of your final retirement savings to me if you don't think that extra 1.38% for 30 years is significant.

 

I do not disagree with the point you are trying to make. That is very valid.

 

There are risks to active management too and their recent returns show. They can underperform too and that 1.38% could have been with a negative sign. Given their overall returns if you take out the value nirvana period of 2000 to 2002 they would have underperformed.

 

I am not trying to take anything away from HWIC performance. That period's performance is just as valid, but my point was the advantage was so narrow that taking away a couple of years would have resulted in underperformance.

 

Given that Indexing does not seem so outrageous and idea.

 

Vinod

 

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  • 1 month later...

Markel got added to the Fortune 500 for the first time.

 

Markel is ranked at #476 with $5.37 billion dollars in 2015 revenue. 

 

Markel barely missed being on the Fortune 500 list last year, coming in at 504.

 

Congratulations Markel !!!

 

(Source:  Fortune Magazine, 6/15/16 edition)

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Q2 cResults out

GLEN ALLEN, Va. (AP) _ Markel Corp. (MKL) on Tuesday reported second-quarter net income of $78.8 million.

 

On a per-share basis, the Glen Allen, Virginia-based company said it had profit of $5.41.

 

The insurer posted revenue of $1.36 billion in the period.

 

Markel shares have risen 7 percent since the beginning of the year. In the final minutes of trading on Tuesday, shares hit $947, a rise of 6 percent in the last 12 months.

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/markel-posts-2q-profit-210103808.html

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RICHMOND, Va., Aug. 2, 2016 /PRNewswire/ -- Markel Corporation (MKL) reported book value per common share outstanding of $603.13 at June 30, 2016, up 7% from $561.23 at December 31, 2015. Comprehensive income to shareholders was $209.9 million for the second quarter of 2016 compared to a comprehensive loss to shareholders of $132.9 million for the second quarter of 2015. Comprehensive income to shareholders was $606.9 million for the six months ended June 30, 2016 compared to $148.9 million for the same period of 2015. The combined ratio was 93% for the second quarter of 2016 compared to 96% for the second quarter of 2015. The combined ratio was 90% for the six months ended June 30, 2016 and 2015. Diluted net income per share was $5.41 for the quarter ended June 30, 2016 compared to $6.72 for the second quarter of 2015. Diluted net income per share was $16.55 for the six months ended June 30, 2016 compared to $20.21 for the same period of 2015.

 

Alan I. Kirshner, Executive Chairman, commented, "The second quarter of 2016 results continued to reflect strong performance from our underwriting, investing and Markel Ventures operations. We were pleased with our underwriting results which had minimal impact from the industry-wide large loss events that occurred during the quarter. Our investment portfolio benefited from favorable movements in the debt and equity markets and our Markel Ventures operations reported another quarter of year over year growth in operating revenue, EBITDA and net income."

 

The Company also announced today it has filed its Form 10-Q for the quarter ended June 30, 2016 with the Securities and Exchange Commission. A copy of the Form 10-Q is available on the Company's website at www.markelcorp.com or on the SEC website at www.sec.gov.  Readers are urged to review the Form 10-Q for a more complete discussion of the Company's financial performance.  The Company's quarterly conference call, which will involve discussion of the Company's financial results and business developments and may include forward-looking information, will be held Wednesday, August 3, 2016, beginning at 9:30 a.m. (Eastern Time).  Any person interested in listening to the call should contact Markel's Investor Relations Department at 804-747-0136. Investors, analysts and the general public also may listen to the call free over the Internet through the Company's website, www.markelcorp.com.  A replay of the call also will be available from approximately one hour after the conclusion of the call until Monday, August 15, 2016.

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/markel-reports-second-quarter-six-205000542.html

 

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  • 2 months later...

Markel Reports Third Quarter And Nine Month Results

RICHMOND, Va., Nov. 1, 2016 /PRNewswire/ -- Markel Corporation (MKL) reported book value per common share outstanding of $609.48 at September 30, 2016, up 9% from $561.23 at December 31, 2015. Comprehensive income to shareholders was $89.2 million for the third quarter of 2016 compared to a comprehensive loss to shareholders of $51.1 million for the third quarter of 2015. Comprehensive income to shareholders was $696.1 million for the nine months ended September 30, 2016 compared to $97.7 million for the same period of 2015. The combined ratio was 98% for the third quarter of 2016 compared to 88% for the third quarter of 2015. The combined ratio was 93% for the nine months ended September 30, 2016 compared to 89% for the same period of 2015. Diluted net income per share was $5.60 for the quarter ended September 30, 2016 compared to $7.39 for the third quarter of 2015. Diluted net income per share was $22.16 for the nine months ended September 30, 2016 compared to $27.60 for the same period of 2015.

 

Alan I. Kirshner, Executive Chairman, commented, "All three of our operating engines have made substantial contributions to our results in 2016. While our underwriting results for the quarter were adversely impacted by unfavorable development on our medical malpractice and specified medical product lines, we continue to exercise underwriting discipline and our results for the nine months are in line with our expectations. Growth in book value per share was also driven by strong performance in both our equity and fixed income investment portfolios. Contributions from our Markel Ventures operations reflect both organic growth and the recent acquisition of CapTech."

 

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/markel-reports-third-quarter-nine-210100949.html

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Dip-buyers alert

 

With today's loss, Markel (MKL -4.3%) is now lower by a full 15% from a 52-week high hit in May. Somebody may want to run the numbers, but it's a pretty good guess that buyers of Tom Gayner and company on 15% moves down have profited nicely over the last 25 years.

 

http://seekingalpha.com/news/3219812-dip-buyers-alert-markel-downturn-continues-big-earnings-miss

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As of today's market price MKL is selling at a 37% premium to BV. That's at the low end of their historic range which has been from 1x to 2x BV. As it gets bigger, I tend to think that it will move in the range of 1.2X to about 1.8x BV. If I'm right and if they can grow at a pace close to their historic norms, then now is a pretty good time to jump in. I'm very tempted but as it is my one of my two top holdings along with FFH, I think I'll wait until it is a screaming buy rather than a "pretty good time".

 

 

-Crip

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I think at 1.6x book its approx fv.  I agree at 2x probably would look to lighten.

 

I think its a great company and cheapish at these levels.  I already own enough otherwise I would be adding. 

 

Below 1.2x I think would be a great deal.

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Apparently it is from Austin, TX.  I found this on Bloomberg.

 

SureTec Financial Corp. specializes in underwriting small-to-midsize contract bonds and commercial surety through independent agents and professional surety producers in the United States. It underwrites commercial bonds, including license and permit, judicial and court, MVD, public official, state professional license, notary, tax, excess weight, and lost instrument bonds. The company also provides SureQuick, an online bonding system that allows the client to quote, issue, track, renew, and amend a bond. It serves construction and surety industries. The company was founded in 1998 and is based in Austin, Texas.

 

 

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May be anybody can explain how it is possible that the BV of MKL decreased in the 4th Qu.2016 from 609 to 606 USD, while the CR was well below 100, Investment returns were positive (shares as well as bonds etc.), MKL-Ventures brought in a profit and the S&P 500 was up? Is this all owed to the fact that interest rates went up a little (mark to market) ?  As I understand it, MKL has a relatively short duration in their portfolio. Any enlightning appreciated!

 

 

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Yes, this was the only explanation I had as well. But still - I am somewhat shocked by the huge effect this relatively small absolute change in interest rates had on an insurer who was particularly careful about this phenomenon (even expressing that for this risk they stay only with short term bonds).

Sorry if I can not express myself in proper words (English not mother tongue and not financially officially educated).

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