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CHK - Chesapeake Energy


bmichaud

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Will this unit be worth so much so that it can close the "funding gap" ?

 

Thoughts on divestiture of the oilfield services biz and the potential buyers for the unit?

 

I would much prefer a cash sale to spin-off in order to get rid of the "funding gap" issue once and for all.

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Will this unit be worth so much so that it can close the "funding gap" ?

 

Thoughts on divestiture of the oilfield services biz and the potential buyers for the unit?

 

I would much prefer a cash sale to spin-off in order to get rid of the "funding gap" issue once and for all.

 

Yes.

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I would spin it off.  This would hurt Chesapeake's credit rating, lowering the price on its debt.  Then Chesapeake could go out and repurchase its debt.

 

*I don't know if they have the liquidity to do this.

 

2- In the past, Chesapeake was very, very good at financial engineering.  They've done some smart stuff in:

a- Taking collateral away from secured bondholders in the VPP and Utica preferred deals.

b- Midstream deals are extremely favorable to Chesapeake.  There is hidden value here.

c- Some hidden value in the drilling carries.

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The value of CHK continues to rise according to Southeaasterns recent letters

 

1) Chesapeake Energy was the largest contributor in

2013, up 59%. Together with new CEO Doug

Lawler, the board that we helped seat in 2012 is

instilling financial and operating discipline into

the company. Over the last 19 months, the

company reduced SG&A, sold a number of non-

core assets, decreased capex, and committed to

livingwithinitscashflowin2014.Thecompanyis

focusing on its strong assets in the Eagle Ford,

Marcellus, and Utica plays in order to grow

production profitably. Even after the stock’s

gains, Chesapeake’s oil and gas reserves sell for a

discount to our appraisal. That appraisal would

grow significantly in the long-term bull case for

low cost natural gas replacing coal for power

generation, fostering manufacturing renewal in

the U.S., displacing some oil as a transportation

fuel, and becoming a major export.

 

2) Energy company Chesapeake retreated 5% in the quarter

following a strong 2013. Short-term questions about

production levels, the mix between gas and liquids, and

additional asset sales pressured the stock. Our appraisal,

however, grew slightly due to successful cost reductions.

CEO Doug Lawler has made substantial progress since taking

the helm last year, and we believe his capital discipline and

operational effectiveness will reward shareholders.

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I looked into CHK's filings but didn't find a separated statements for SSE. Do you understand that business? Should I sell or hold it when I receive the spin off?

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I looked into CHK's filings but didn't find a separated statements for SSE. Do you understand that business? Should I sell or hold it when I receive the spin off?

 

First, I believe you can find the SEC filings for the oilfield services spinoff here:

 

https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0001532930&owner=exclude&count=40&hidefilings=0

 

In terms of the question about the decision to buy, sell or hold the spinco, it is obviously going to depend on price.  I have been meaning to do more work on this, but I have been distracted by other ideas.  As such, I haven't extensively reviewed the filings.  Based on my cursory work, I am not very impressed by the business.  As one should expect, it is quite capital intensive and the drilling/services contracts (and hence revenues) are predominantly with CHK.  This seems like a fairly large risk factor to me as I am unsure as to how much negotiating leverage the spinco will have with CHK.

 

I am certainly interested to hear any other thoughts.   

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If you look at the way that CHK and ACMP (Access midstream, formerly Chesapeake something or other) are structured, things were structured in favour of CHK.  ACMP is fairly silly as it has entered into risky deals with Chesapeake where ACMP is levered to how many wells Chesapeake drills.

 

Chesapeake may be trying to structure the deal so that  the oil services company has a deceptively high yield so that retail investors (and yield-hungry investors) will overpay for it.  If you look at ACMP, silly stocks have done well in the past few years.  But I think the party will one day come to an end and these things will be valued based on their intrinsic value (e.g. look at the royalty trusts that Chesapeake and Sandridge spun out).

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I looked into CHK's filings but didn't find a separated statements for SSE. Do you understand that business? Should I sell or hold it when I receive the spin off?

 

First, I believe you can find the SEC filings for the oilfield services spinoff here:

 

https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0001532930&owner=exclude&count=40&hidefilings=0

 

In terms of the question about the decision to buy, sell or hold the spinco, it is obviously going to depend on price.  I have been meaning to do more work on this, but I have been distracted by other ideas.  As such, I haven't extensively reviewed the filings.  Based on my cursory work, I am not very impressed by the business.  As one should expect, it is quite capital intensive and the drilling/services contracts (and hence revenues) are predominantly with CHK.  This seems like a fairly large risk factor to me as I am unsure as to how much negotiating leverage the spinco will have with CHK.

 

I am certainly interested to hear any other thoughts. 

 

Seems like a levered version of PTEN w/ lower margins. Me think the tier 1 rigs coming online the next 2 years should help Drilling upside (also if they expand day rate margin up to 8.5-9k +), but aside from that I see them just doing ~$530-540 mm EBITDA for FY15, rendering the stock @ ~5x. Hardly cheap when all their comps are around 5.1-5.5x, and this company has a huge debt burden w/ no FCF to boot until 2016.

 

Please prove me wrong. Don't see why you go long this.

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Guest wellmont

Seems like a levered version of PTEN w/ lower margins. Me think the tier 1 rigs coming online the next 2 years should help Drilling upside (also if they expand day rate margin up to 8.5-9k +), but aside from that I see them just doing ~$530-540 mm EBITDA for FY15, rendering the stock @ ~5x. Hardly cheap when all their comps are around 5.1-5.5x, and this company has a huge debt burden w/ no FCF to boot until 2016.

 

Please prove me wrong. Don't see why you go long this.

 

these guys are supposed to be sharp and bought around 6% of it in the $23 range. :)

 

http://secfilings.nasdaq.com/filingFrameset.asp?FileName=0001172661-14-001505%2Etxt&FilePath=%5C2014%5C08%5C25%5C&CoName=SEVENTY+SEVEN+ENERGY+INC%2E&FormType=SC+13G&RcvdDate=8%2F25%2F2014&pdf=

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Longleaf partners comments on CHK

 

While lower energy prices rather

than company-specific disappointments in our

energy names drove declines, they did not impact

our appraisals of these three companies because

our models already incorporated lower commodity

prices based on the futures curve pricing and the

marginal cost of production in our various plays.

Higher commodity prices would likely lift their

stocks, but these three companies do not require

a rise in energy prices for intrinsic values to be

recognized. At Chesapeake, CEO Doug Lawler is

continuing to drive value recognition in ways he

can control — selling non-core assets at reasonable

prices, reducing debt, and increasing operating

efficiencies in both corporate and production

activity. He is building additional upside with $2-3

billion of annual discretionary capital spending that

management projects should deliver strong returns

on capital, even without higher commodity prices

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you guys like the sale?

 

 

 

 

 

Chesapeake Gains Most Since 2008 on Biggest Shale Sale

 

 

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-10-16/chesapeake-to-divest-appalachian-shale-fields.html

 

 

Chesapeake Energy Corp. (CHK) surged the most in almost six years after announcing plans to sell natural gas and oil shale fields to Southwestern Energy Co. (SWN) for $5.4 billion in its biggest-ever divestment.

 

The transaction includes 1,500 wells and drilling rights across 413,000 acres in the southern Marcellus Shale and eastern Utica Shale in Pennsylvania and West Virginia, Oklahoma City-based Chesapeake said in a statement today.

 

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Quarterly results out tomorrow morning, should be interesting. There has been a lot of hard work done the past year to clean things up, coupled with this latest asset sale to reduce leverage things may start to look up for the company....of course oil price plunge doesn't help but they have hedged oil & nat gas prices......

 

cheers

Zorro

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