alertmeipp Posted February 26, 2011 Share Posted February 26, 2011 I put together a recap of the recent conference call: http://seekingalpha.com/article/254711-chesapeake-energy-an-unconventional-resource-play Very nice summary. Rate on their debt currently trade about 7-9%... now that they are less leverage, do you see them being able to refinancing their debt in a lower rate sometimes soon? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alertmeipp Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 Finally decided to load up on CHK today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
biaggio Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 Chesapeake's McClendon: Six Reasons for Long-Term Bullishness on Natural Gas http://seekingalpha.com/article/255793-chesapeake-s-mcclendon-six-reasons-for-long-term-bullishness-on-natural-gas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Myth465 Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 Chesapeake's McClendon: Six Reasons for Long-Term Bullishness on Natural Gas http://seekingalpha.com/article/255793-chesapeake-s-mcclendon-six-reasons-for-long-term-bullishness-on-natural-gas I am looking at CHK but will only buy after a pull back. Ward commented on Number 6 and I think that plus decline rates will get gas to $6. Its not the $10 we all loved but SD, CHK, and a few others will mint money at $6 gas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
biaggio Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 maybe we don t need $10 gas for companies to make $$$ due to the new technologies/ Peyto CEO claims they can make good $$$ with gas at $4-5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alertmeipp Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 maybe it's wiser to wait for further pull back but I am pretty comfortable with the price I paid. I am paying less than the majors are paying for CHK's assets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gokou3 Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 Peyto CEO claims they can make good $$$ with gas at $4-5 If this is true, then I think reason #6 (Rigs That Move to Oil Won’t Come Back to Natural Gas) becomes irrelevant. It may be true that the rigs that moved to oil won't "come back", but more rigs can be built to exploit the $4-5 gas if it is economic for some companies (especially those without oil acreage) and thus keeping gas price suppressed. I am still long on CHK though, given their large land position in both oil & gas. I think $5-6 gas support CHK's current market value on its gas properties alone, plus free option for their oil property. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gfp Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 half million dollar buy by a director at 33.44 http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/895126/000089512611000074/xslF345X03/edgardoc.xml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Myth465 Posted April 16, 2011 Share Posted April 16, 2011 Eric Nuttall Had dinner with the CEO of CHK - Even he is bearish on nat gas. Very interesting. http://watch.bnn.ca/#clip449990 This guy is one of the best ways to learn about oil and gas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Myth465 Posted May 12, 2011 Share Posted May 12, 2011 What do you guys think. With the recent pullback in oil I am re-balancing and thinking about staying long SD and ATPG. I am considering selling most of my other oil and gas holdings to go long CHK and add to DO. T-Bone brought up a good point about Carl and CHK has too many catalyst and assets. If the share price doesnt go up one way or another they may be pushed to act. Do any of you guys have any updated thoughts on CHK? I plan to look at it in more detail tomorrow, been avoiding CHK due to them being gassy and me being bearish on gas. It seems like they have built up some nice oily acreage though. I like some of the Canadian plays, but really like the fact that I can get great upside with in the money leaps and take some chips off the table. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
claphands22 Posted May 12, 2011 Share Posted May 12, 2011 Eric Nuttall Had dinner with the CEO of CHK - Even he is bearish on nat gas. Very interesting. http://watch.bnn.ca/#clip449990 This guy is one of the best ways to learn about oil and gas. I'd also recommend watching Eric Nuttal; very sharp guy, seemingly encyclopedic knowledge of oil&gas cos and a good communicator. He also has a value bent to him, tries to keep his downside low by buying companies based on production and keeps the upside by other more speculative assets that are being priced in "for free." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alertmeipp Posted May 16, 2011 Share Posted May 16, 2011 Looks like Icahn is out. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-05-16/icahn-associates-corp-holdings-in-1st-quarter-13f-alert.html?cmpid=yhoo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Myth465 Posted May 16, 2011 Share Posted May 16, 2011 Not bad for a few months worth work. Hopefully he buys into ATPG and gets them to cut their debt too lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alertmeipp Posted May 17, 2011 Share Posted May 17, 2011 Or SD. CHK maybe better breaking up into pieces. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Myth465 Posted May 17, 2011 Share Posted May 17, 2011 Fair and Friendly seems to be working well with SD. I hope its an interesting few weeks, I would like to see a JV on 250,000 acres and a $1 billion dollar trust..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alertmeipp Posted May 17, 2011 Share Posted May 17, 2011 SDT performs pretty well last few days. There is demand for it. I bet we would know which way by June. A JV makes buyout more complicated. :) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Myth465 Posted May 17, 2011 Share Posted May 17, 2011 QE2, could screw that up, but ya people want income and call options on rising prices. Honestly a buyout at $20 would make my life a hell of a lot easier, but I dont think its likely. Ward has too high of a basis, has a really nice setup, and seems to like his team. He doesnt seem like the go fly a kit sort of guy. Wondering what the majors / super majors plan on doing. I dont see alot of low hanging reserves. Once they sort out holding the million acres, I would like Ward to hand things off to the COO and go find some new oil path. I like the call option on his ability to find cheap oil. I hope CHK is wrong, and there is still other good acreage for cheap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alertmeipp Posted May 17, 2011 Share Posted May 17, 2011 Tom will sell if someone pay up. SD should fit well into many majors - especially those that have large NG assets. But I don't (want to) see a buyout near term. I have bot some leaps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Myth465 Posted May 17, 2011 Share Posted May 17, 2011 Tom will sell if someone pay up. SD should fit well into many majors - especially those that have large NG assets. But I don't (want to) see a buyout near term. I have bot some leaps. 2012s or 2013s. My 2012s are up significantly and are at $5. I would love to roll them over, but have too many realized gains. I know understand Ericopoly. I may have to exercise them. Not a bad problem to have. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alertmeipp Posted May 17, 2011 Share Posted May 17, 2011 mine are all 13'. I swapped between commons and leaps. I don't mind taxes.. u have to pay them sooner or later. Is there a website to check out historical option prices? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Myth465 Posted May 17, 2011 Share Posted May 17, 2011 mine are all 13'. I swapped between commons and leaps. I don't mind taxes.. u have to pay them sooner or later. Is there a website to check out historical option prices? I think Thinkorswim allows it but I have never used it. Im sure you can see it somewhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Myth465 Posted July 30, 2011 Share Posted July 30, 2011 Congrats guys this is the gift that keeps on giving. http://seekingalpha.com/article/283255-chesapeake-energy-s-ceo-discusses-q2-2011-results-earnings-call-transcript?part=qanda Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Myth465 Posted August 4, 2011 Share Posted August 4, 2011 Interesting CHK summary of the last few years. http://seekingalpha.com/article/284398-can-chesapeake-management-crack-the-code-to-unlock-shareholder-value Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmichaud Posted August 15, 2011 Author Share Posted August 15, 2011 I am combing through some ideas I have posted on here in order to follow up with fellow board members on where I stand with the investment (not that anyone cares, but I want to make sure I don't pitch something then ditch it without full disclosure). I never established a position of significance with CHK due to the lack of compelling cash flow and my inability to fully grasp the industry. Recently however, through my work on the O&G sector at my job, I am becoming much more familiar with what is going on in the industry. My knowledge is still primitive, but the most compelling data point I have come across with regard to CHK's attractiveness as an investment is that several industry participants believe Held By Production (HBP) drilling will subside significantly starting in 2012/2013. The amount of uneconomical drilling going on right now is absolutely ridiculous, but if an investor can take the longer view by a couple of years (obviously assuming a decline in HBP drilling will help boost NG prices), asset rich E&P companies such as CHK, APA, EOG etc...will see a signicisnt rise in earning power and returns on capital. Personally, I believe the sharp rise in finding costs for the oil majors is due to them taking the long view on NG prices and purchasing these NG assets at what appear to be excessively high prices right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmichaud Posted November 4, 2011 Author Share Posted November 4, 2011 Market doesn't seem to approve of yet another infinitely high-ROIC leasehold monetization....down over 6% thus far today after rallying to over $30 last night on the Utica shale news. I haven't listened to the CC yet, but I'm assuming it has to do with elevated capex, financing etc, etc. IMO, CHK is a wildly undervalued call option on nat gas returning to marginal cost of around $5 to $6 per mmbtu - the only thing I struggle with is how to invest in an asset play with no catalyst. An oil major could easily cut a $50 or $60 billion check for this thing and still have an average F&D cost below what they have been paying - however, if that was going to happen, I don't see why it hasn't by now given the deals that have already taken place. .... And the CHK struggle continues.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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