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CHK - Chesapeake Energy


bmichaud

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Correction Obama ruling was specifically on drilling in the Wayne National Forest in Southern Ohio effecting 3000 acres versus. I don't believe existing leaseholds are impacted. Sorry for the confusion. I guess that's what happens when you read conservative blogs.

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  • 4 weeks later...

updated version here:

 

http://www.creditbubblestocks.com/2011/12/chesapeake-energy-chk-and-utica-shale.html

 

The gist is that the oil window of the Utica shale might be better than the rest of the Utica shale.  So far all well results, joint ventures, etc. have only taken place in the wet gas window.  There is not publicly available evidence that the oil window will even work, but Devon and Anadarko are leasing and drilling in the oil window exclusively.  Exxon is also leasing and plans to drill this winter along with Shell and Chevron

 

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/shale-gas-boom-a-rare-bright-spot-in-slow-economic-recovery/article2262374/?utm_medium=Feeds%3A%20RSS%2FAtom&utm_source=Home&utm_content=2262374

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  • 4 weeks later...

I like the latest CHK presentation. CHK seems to have gotten the message and is now simplifying its business structure / plan and reducing its debt. 2012 should be exciting with all of the asset sells / spinoffs planned. I own a small leap position and will be watching. Hopefully NAT gas has bottomed with it hitting high $2 and low $3, though I am still quite bearish...

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  • 2 weeks later...

Finally an end to the madness.

 

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/chesapeake-energy-corporation-updates-its-2012-operating-plan-in-response-to-low-natural-gas-prices-2012-01-23

 

I dont think this will help natural gas prices though, perhaps I could be wrong though...

 

Second, the company plans to immediately curtail approximately 0.5 billion cubic feet (bcf) per day, or 8%, of its current operated gross gas production of 6.3 bcf per day, which is about 9% of the nation's natural gas production. If conditions warrant, the company is prepared to double this production curtailment to as much as 1.0 bcf per day. In addition, wherever possible, Chesapeake plans to defer completions of dry gas wells that have been drilled but not yet completed, and also plans to defer pipeline connections of dry gas wells that have already been completed.

 

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It is amazing to me that after all these years of low natural gas prices that nothing has emerged yet in terms of consumption in NA. To my knowledge, utilities have not switched very much from oil to gas and they are still prefering coal and we have seen nothing on the transportation front (switch from diesel to gas).

 

I always wondered if it was due to fear of a sudden return to $12 gas as consumption increases. However, I would imagine that this could be fixed by hedging and developing "switching" technologies that are easy to go from one source to another.

 

Also, we keep hearing from some experts that shale gas wells have very high depletion rate, but the impact of it has been invisible so far.

 

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Myth  hope you are wrong re gas prices - started postion in CHK and ECA in the last couple of weeks - would be nice if this were the bottom and slowly up from here

 

I hope so too. It would mean alot for my networth too. CHK has been the most irrational operator for quite a while, finally they cant afford to continue.

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Myth  hope you are wrong re gas prices - started postion in CHK and ECA in the last couple of weeks - would be nice if this were the bottom and slowly up from here

 

I hope so too. It would mean alot for my networth too. CHK has been the most irrational operator for quite a while, finally they cant afford to continue.

 

I don t think they have been the only irrational operators.

 

Something has to change soon-you cant continue to sell at $2-3 with your cost of $4-5.

 

I heard they are starting to decrease their production now that their hedges/futures are expiring and they can t hedge out their production at a reasonable price.

 

Those getting in today may be smarter than me-i have had a 5-7.5% position for the last several years.

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  • 3 weeks later...
  • 1 month later...

Many others think we are too soon. But just it doesn't mean we are. :)

 

Citi downgraded it last Friday due to risk.

Having billions of fund gap next couple years when market is worried about next couple months of coz doesn't help.

 

The two major assets sale they mentioned about are both Miss Lime and Permian which are not dry gas so I don't think they will have problems selling but prices will likely be not be optimal. (Note: SD)

 

Rig count is dropping and yet to reflect on the production and it soon will be. Time will tell.

 

 

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My good friend, a market neutral energy HFM, is currently shorting it and believes it can get down to $16. His primary concern is that he thinks Audrey is a snake oil salesman and that the company has the potential of being the Enron of the oil and gas industry. However, at the same time he admits it's worth north if $50 per share. Very confusing situation, I must admit. There is so much value here - I just have a tough time handicapping the Audrey risk.

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hmmm.. I must be missing something. :)

 

 

If CHK wants, they can hedge their positions next year for 3+ bucks and 4$+ for the following but they likely won't and that with the liquid revenue (50-60%) - they should be fine as long as they can close the deals. Worse case is they will need to send NG assets cheap.

 

The NG NAV decreease, if it comes, is fine with me. It will come back up when NG backs up.

 

 

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I don't think the loans on the founders well program are a significant issue to the company. If you made an investment in CHK with the knowledge of the founders well program then this additional information should not surprise you/be of signifigance. Further more the information at question is disclosed when CHK registers the well site with the county in which it is drilling, see the article I have attached for a more in depth report. It seems as if Reuters is attempting to spin this more negatively than it is and who would benefit from that? Also, the first Reuters story I saw on this today had a dateline of Reuters UK, perhaps someone knows a reporter based in Houston would file a story with Reuters UK? Perhpas that the site that Statoil and Total read?

 

http://shale.sites.post-gazette.com/index.php/news/investigations/24415-mortgaging-the-future-of-natural-gas-chesapeake-energy-ceo-capitalizing-today-on-tomorrows-profits-in-west-virginias-farmland

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You guys beat me to the post.

 

So ironic this just came out, as just yesterday I noticed in the 2010 proxy the massive accumulated deficit Aubrey has acccumulated under the founders well program and was curious how he was or was not funding that. Glad to see it's not CHK funding it....

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