undervalued Posted April 15, 2015 Share Posted April 15, 2015 Anyone getting interested in GE after the Friday announcements? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CassiusKing1 Posted September 2, 2015 Share Posted September 2, 2015 I've got this one back on my watchlist and am kicking the tires again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rb Posted September 2, 2015 Share Posted September 2, 2015 I also like GE. At 23 I'm getting interested. If it drops to 20 I'm really interested. It's not gonna be a multibagger at this level but you can make a nice safeish return. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rb Posted July 6, 2017 Share Posted July 6, 2017 Off more then 4% today. I guess it's GE's turn to get pummeled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
xtreeq Posted July 7, 2017 Share Posted July 7, 2017 Anyone have access to the JPMorgan report? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John Hjorth Posted July 7, 2017 Share Posted July 7, 2017 I saw a report yesterday on Bloomberg about Margrethe Vestager is starting a probe against GE for non-cadid reporting to the EU commision on development projects in it's wind division when GE earlier this year aquired Danish wind blade producer LM Wind Power A/S from UK based Dorothy Hansson. She is all over the place. GE is a wonderful company. Have any of you considered to take a look at Siemens or ABB? - They appear cheaper to me at first glance, but naturally they are all three competitors in several areas, and each other between different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest longinvestor Posted July 22, 2017 Share Posted July 22, 2017 What do you guys think Flannery going to do that Immelt could not? Are we talking "fixing the unfixable?" (Munger) There's some word on the street that they should get back into capital and finance. And shouldn't have gotten out. Huh! https://www.forbes.com/sites/christopherhelman/2017/06/12/unloved-immelt-out-at-general-electric-shares-surge/#1b1e8eec4ffb Here's the long hand of Pelz/Trian at work, http://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20170322005637/en/Trian-Comments-GE-Framework Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james22 Posted August 11, 2017 Share Posted August 11, 2017 I see Markel recently bought: http://www.dataroma.com/m/activity.php?sym=GE&typ=a Anyone interested? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John Hjorth Posted August 11, 2017 Share Posted August 11, 2017 Markel buying a tracker, basically, James, More down, please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james22 Posted August 11, 2017 Share Posted August 11, 2017 Whoops. Yeah, .02% change to portfolio. Thanks, John. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spekulatius Posted August 11, 2017 Share Posted August 11, 2017 What do you guys think Flannery going to do that Immelt could not? Are we talking "fixing the unfixable?" (Munger) There's some word on the street that they should get back into capital and finance. And shouldn't have gotten out. Huh! https://www.forbes.com/sites/christopherhelman/2017/06/12/unloved-immelt-out-at-general-electric-shares-surge/#1b1e8eec4ffb . Here's the long hand of Pelz/Trian at work, http://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20170322005637/en/Trian-Comments-GE-Framework Flannel is actually good at capital allocation, while Immelt wasn't. Immerzu bought high (oil business) and sold low (NBC etc). Flannel showed his mettle with the sale of household goods for a decent price and with the Baker-Hughes deal. I think they are done with financial, except where it directly ties into their industrial and service business Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james22 Posted October 10, 2017 Share Posted October 10, 2017 -4% yesterday, -26% YTD Ever a point when attractive? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rb Posted October 10, 2017 Share Posted October 10, 2017 -4% yesterday, -26% YTD Ever a point when attractive? At $20 per share it starts to get attractive. At $17 turn the taps full on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Junto Posted October 11, 2017 Share Posted October 11, 2017 -4% yesterday, -26% YTD Ever a point when attractive? At $20 per share it starts to get attractive. At $17 turn the taps full on. Agreed. It's too early right now to jump in. No proof that Flannery can turn the table but he will need to move aggressively. I was never a fan of Immelt and Immelt can argue he made strides in the pages of the Harvard Business Review but the stock has not supported this outlook. I will be a buyer at $20 or lower as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
handycap5 Posted October 12, 2017 Share Posted October 12, 2017 Steve Tusa from JPM is very negative (and has so far been generally right on his GE call) on the competitive dynamics and positioning of the power business. If anyone is closer to this, could you explain it to me? Thanks in advance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phaceliacapital Posted October 12, 2017 Share Posted October 12, 2017 - End markets are weaker than market thinks - FCF will therefore be lower and no longer cover dividend so dividend cut likely - no more room to leverage for dividend buyback - ... Best part? Unfunded pension of 31bn on mcap of 200. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ourkid8 Posted October 24, 2017 Share Posted October 24, 2017 We are getting closer... -4% yesterday, -26% YTD Ever a point when attractive? At $20 per share it starts to get attractive. At $17 turn the taps full on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rb Posted October 24, 2017 Share Posted October 24, 2017 Yes we are. I think I need to get top work and learn more about the power unit. I kinda wish someone would explain to me the rationale for why it was worth $28 or 30 not so long ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsad Posted October 25, 2017 Share Posted October 25, 2017 Yes we are. I think I need to get top work and learn more about the power unit. I kinda wish someone would explain to me the rationale for why it was worth $28 or 30 not so long ago. Because the financial business was spewing cash in the past. The business has been shrunk dramatically and you can see this in the revenues and profit margins. Not the same business it was in the past...has to get cheaper and the dividend presently is not sustainable. Cheers! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
petec Posted October 25, 2017 Share Posted October 25, 2017 -4% yesterday, -26% YTD Ever a point when attractive? At $20 per share it starts to get attractive. At $17 turn the taps full on. rb, what is your valuation reasoning behind these prices? And why have you changed your targets from 23/20 as per your earlier post, to 20/17? Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rb Posted October 25, 2017 Share Posted October 25, 2017 -4% yesterday, -26% YTD Ever a point when attractive? At $20 per share it starts to get attractive. At $17 turn the taps full on. rb, what is your valuation reasoning behind these prices? And why have you changed your targets from 23/20 as per your earlier post, to 20/17? Thanks! More research. Figured out that Oil & Gas and Healthcare less valuable than I thought. Btw, my 20/17 was before the latest call and some more research. It turns out that the Power division is has issues too and has likely over earned. It seems that the more I dig the more problems I find. Clearly more research is needed. Which is not easy when their ARs give you a splitting headache. I know that their Aviation division is fantastic. But it's hard to make a case for the company just around aviation when all other parts seem to be sucking wind. It's all really frustrating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
walkie518 Posted October 25, 2017 Share Posted October 25, 2017 Quick and dirty sum of the parts...interested to hear what people are thinking on this as there appears to be some contention regarding valuations. This is by no means exhaustive but a preliminary stab... Maybe earnings are all overstated? Maybe GAAP is actually closer to economic earnings? Would need to dig deeper, but I think the stock is inexpensive and some of the segments are market leaders where there is minimal competition... I would imagine one should put a mark on reproduction of the employee-base, but let's leave that out for now. I would put healthcare to be worth around $50B and power in the same vicinity of $50B. Aviation likely worth around $80-90B. Baker Hughes is harder to value b/c of the acquisition costs and where there may or may not be synergies. Say it's worth $10B. Transporation is probably worth around $5B and renewables (though growing) is probably worth a little less, say $4.5B. Treasury shares should have some value even if there is no intention of selling? Say they are worth half? $35B Pension is a long-tail problem, but one I think they will figure out over time. ($25B) I would say the rest of what shows up on the balance sheet doesn't have economic value outside of GE? 50+50+80+10+5+4.5+35-25 = $209.5B MCAP = $186B Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spekulatius Posted October 25, 2017 Share Posted October 25, 2017 GE Aviation is a good Business. I think healthcare is doing fine. Transportation is fine too, but cyclical and currently probably close to a low point. Power is at a real franchise (GE is leader in turbines etc.), but I think I is correct to say that the profitability outlook is currently muted. Lighting is small and most likely will go. I am not sure about renewables and it might be folded into the lower division or sold off. I think that Energy actually has a decent potential and BHGE is worth looking into. It is cyclical, but I think there is a lot of potential afte thr merger with Baker Hughes to makes them a world class leader in their field and challenge SLB. What scares me are their pension issues, the issue with their LT care insurance, which most likely need to buff their reserves, as the GE financial has been the piggy bank to make the numbers for too long. It is also not totally clear to me why GE does not generate better cash flows in their industrial business. Most likely some aggressive accounting... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rb Posted October 26, 2017 Share Posted October 26, 2017 Walkie, I know you said that your sum of parts is preliminary but I think it's flawed. The parts valuations are quite generous. Also you can't add treasury shares. You don't seem to subtract anything for corporate items or the debt they carry. I'm not trying to be too harsh here. Just pointing a couple of things out. This thing is pretty complicated. I welcome teamwork. :). Spekulatius, I think one thing that affects cash flow is Aviation. At this point in the cycle there's new programs coming on and they eat a lot of cash. There's nothing wrong with that. It's just how the aero engines business works. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTEJD1997 Posted October 26, 2017 Share Posted October 26, 2017 Hey all: I very much suspect that there is more risk hidden in GE than what easily comes to the eye. The largest thing appears to be the valuation. How is this thing trading for a EV/EBIDTA of 18 at $21.50/share? Then you've got the debt. Something like $170BB vs. $14BB in cash. Debt is something like 9.5X EBIDTA. Further, you've got the pension deficit. This thing just screams disaster waiting to happen. If the economy does well, they'll muddle through. If the economy has serious trouble, GE is probably going to have serious trouble ala 2008. I think there are still a lot of legacy investors in GE, and a METRIC TON of investors that think GE is safe. If perception changes, the valuation will also... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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