ourkid8 Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 Have you received the proxy in the mail already? did u guys vote? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alertmeipp Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 Have you received the proxy in the mail already? did u guys vote? I live in Canada, those will take couple weeks to come. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muscleman Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 Have you received the proxy in the mail already? did u guys vote? I live in Canada, those will take couple weeks to come. So when will the outcome be determined? Probably in 1 month? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ASTA Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 Nice short article on SD in ft.com/lex if anyone is interested. Talking about TPG-Axon and how SD management and SD should be radically changed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ItsAValueTrap Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 It later turned out that there is no way to understand those assets because all the important well data is confidential. I would agree... a lot of resource stocks are simply too hard. When these companies sell assets to private buyers, they will often open up a data room for the private companies to do due diligence. Oil & gas companies could release more information on things like expected decline curves, volumetric estimates, estimates based on pressure, etc. etc. Without that type of information, you haven't really done your due diligence. The other approach is to only work with ethical managements (SD is not one of them) who are also in the top percentile in terms of running a company. *I made money shorting ATPG. They lied repeatedly in the past, insiders were selling, and they had negative operating cash flow... it was a really obvious short. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Myth465 Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 ItsAValueTrap let me know about your next short. In retrospect it was the famous story stock that over promised, under delivered, was over levered, and never faced reality. It was a bit obvious. Hopefully TPG comes through on this one. I plan on holding. I think the assets have value. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muscleman Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 ItsAValueTrap let me know about your next short. In retrospect it was the famous story stock that over promised, under delivered, was over levered, and never faced reality. It was a bit obvious. Hopefully TPG comes through on this one. I plan on holding. I think the assets have value. What I care about is when the solicitation result will be out? I bought some $6 call options for next June. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Myth465 Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 As did I ... I cant imagine this going on for longer then a month or so, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ItsAValueTrap Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 ItsAValueTrap let me know about your next short. Read my signature lol... I covered my JCP short at a nice profit, still have open short positions on JOE and PRXI (underwater on both... :( ). As far as Sandridge Energy goes, I never really researched it. 17.9% of the float is short according to Yahoo Finance... the most flawed stocks around tend to attract high short interest. As a long investment, SD would automatically go into the too hard pile due to the following red flags: - negative cash flow - constant equity issuance - it doesn't make sense for investors for there to be so many sandridge companies. The pure play sandridge companies are handcuffed into their own sector... this is an unnecessary obstacle to intelligent asset allocation. It might be a good short... but it's not like I am shorting it or have researched the company enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Myth465 Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 I like the tag line and thanks for your thoughts. TPG saved my bacon here, and I will heed your red flats and add them to my list. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muscleman Posted December 15, 2012 Share Posted December 15, 2012 ItsAValueTrap let me know about your next short. Read my signature lol... I covered my JCP short at a nice profit, still have open short positions on JOE and PRXI (underwater on both... :( ). As far as Sandridge Energy goes, I never really researched it. 17.9% of the float is short according to Yahoo Finance... the most flawed stocks around tend to attract high short interest. As a long investment, SD would automatically go into the too hard pile due to the following red flags: - negative cash flow - constant equity issuance - it doesn't make sense for investors for there to be so many sandridge companies. The pure play sandridge companies are handcuffed into their own sector... this is an unnecessary obstacle to intelligent asset allocation. It might be a good short... but it's not like I am shorting it or have researched the company enough. I think for shorts, timing is way more important than pure long investors. Shorting merely based on fundamentals with no hard and clear catalyst is not likely to be as profitable as longs. Have you checked some technical analysis books like the ones from Wyckoff? Before I came to fundamental analysis, I was pure TA. I read through almost everything about TA and I think wyckoff's volume analysis is the only one that makes sense. Combining this with your fundamentals will probably work out better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ItsAValueTrap Posted December 15, 2012 Share Posted December 15, 2012 Well shorting, in my opinion, is a whole art onto itself. When you start doing it, you start learning about things the hard way... e.g. buy-ins, borrowing costs, short squeezes, crazy stuff like Volkswagen (I have no position in that), etc. Shorting common stock may not really be worth your time. I am generally skeptical about technical analysis. Some of it probably even works (e.g. anything that takes advantage of excess volatility / Mr. Market, some of the stuff which take advantage of stop losses, etc.). But I guess I'm more interested in how the world works and in fundamentals... and I'm turned off by TA witchcraft. As far as my performance... I made all my money shorting and lost what I made on my longs (I loaded the boat on QXM/XING and got burned because the CEO ran off with the money). Anyways this is getting off topic... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muscleman Posted December 15, 2012 Share Posted December 15, 2012 Well shorting, in my opinion, is a whole art onto itself. When you start doing it, you start learning about things the hard way... e.g. buy-ins, borrowing costs, short squeezes, crazy stuff like Volkswagen (I have no position in that), etc. Shorting common stock may not really be worth your time. I am generally skeptical about technical analysis. Some of it probably even works (e.g. anything that takes advantage of excess volatility / Mr. Market, some of the stuff which take advantage of stop losses, etc.). But I guess I'm more interested in how the world works and in fundamentals... and I'm turned off by TA witchcraft. As far as my performance... I made all my money shorting and lost what I made on my longs (I loaded the boat on QXM/XING and got burned because the CEO ran off with the money). Anyways this is getting off topic... sigh. I lost a lot of money on CCME too. I even did some DD and found that they have the operations. But still, the scale of fraud is out of my imagination. I never want to buy one more US listed Chinese stock. What longs do you have now? I am sticking with only solid management now. If management is questionable, I will just pass. I learned the lesson the hard way through ATPG and CCME, and, to some extent, SD, which I think still has hope of making a buck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ItsAValueTrap Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 With CCME there were some reports by short sellers alleging fraud before the stock price collapsed. Unfortunately I did not find such reports for QXM/XING (though in hindsight I really should have researched Real Gold, as there are reports of fake mines there). What longs do you have now? Check my blog... http://glennchan.wordpress.com/ I'm still unsure if owning junior miners is a good idea... I own Noront and KWG. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zippy1 Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 SD sold Permian basin asset for 2.6 Billion http://finance.yahoo.com/news/sandridge-energy-inc-agrees-sell-211200500.html SandRidge Energy, Inc. (SD) today announced that it has signed a definitive agreement to sell its Permian Basin properties to Sheridan Production Partners II, a privately held Houston-based oil and gas company, for $2.6 billion in cash. SandRidge announced on November 8 that it was exploring the sale of the assets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Myth465 Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 I was just about to post that. Will be interesting to see what TPG says about the pricing. We have catalysts all around for this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zippy1 Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 I was just about to post that. Will be interesting to see what TPG says about the pricing. We have catalysts all around for this one. Myth, Not knowing all the details of exactly what was sold, but TPG was valuing Permian for 1.5B.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Myth465 Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 Thanks Zippy, hard to process this while at work. Looks like we have 1.3 billion net debt, and also will get the rigs, personal, and focus all pushed back into the Miss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alertmeipp Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 now, they should sell their GOM and remaining assets to simplify the company. They don't need GOM's cash flow anymore. EV 6.7b -Permain 2.6b -GOM 1.5b -Trust value 0.5b When the market see they are only paying ~2billion for whole Miss play. this will get valued properly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Myth465 Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 You are forgetting the WTO. I wish we never bought the GOM and had just sold the Permian (as suggested ages ago). Ward has come around, but is late to the party. I would have prefered tuck in Gulf assets at 2x cash flow, WTO, and Miss Lime. Eventually unload Gulf at 4-5x cash flow when possible. The oil price in the gulf is nice though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alertmeipp Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 You are forgetting the WTO. I wish we never bought the GOM and had just sold the Permian (as suggested ages ago). Ward has come around, but is late to the party. I would have prefered tuck in Gulf assets at 2x cash flow, WTO, and Miss Lime. Eventually unload Gulf at 4-5x cash flow when possible. The oil price in the gulf is nice though. i would be happy if they get rid of GOM asset now and do a buyback. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zippy1 Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 Stock went back up above $7 in afterhour trading... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alertmeipp Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Stock went back up above $7 in afterhour trading... That's weak Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Myth465 Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 I dont expect much but the story is getting simpler. The real money comes with change of Management, Miss Sale, or Sale of company. Just enjoy the ride and the fact that we have catalysts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zippy1 Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Stock went back up above $7 in afterhour trading... That's weak Actually, I am not sure how big a pop to expect. What should be expected? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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