ourkid8 Posted April 1, 2011 Share Posted April 1, 2011 Myth - I have never met you but I can say in a very straight way I like you a lot! :) I have done very very well off this small position buying it in the low 5's. My only regret is not buying more!!! S Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JAllen Posted April 1, 2011 Share Posted April 1, 2011 Just for yall's information: 19 of the 26 increase in U.S oil rigs this past week were in Oklahoma. From a 156 base! Not sure what it means but it's probably a good sign! Rotary Rig Count 04/01/11 Week Year Location Week +/- Ago +/- Ago Land 1729 39 1690 330 1399 Inland Waters 20 0 20 5 15 Offshore 27 -1 28 -24 51 United States Total 1776 38 1738 311 1465 Gulf Of Mexico 27 -1 28 -23 50 Canada 285 -144 429 134 151 North America 2061 -106 2167 445 1616 Breakout Information This Week +/- Last Week +/- Year Ago Oil 877 26 851 375 502 Gas 891 11 880 -58 949 Miscellaneous 8 1 7 -6 14 Directional 228 4 224 6 222 Horizontal 1017 22 995 282 735 Vertical 531 12 519 23 508 Major State Variances This Week +/- Last Week +/- Year Ago Alaska 6 0 6 -3 9 Arkansas 36 2 34 -5 41 California 41 -1 42 12 29 Colorado 72 1 71 20 52 Louisiana 175 -1 176 -43 218 New Mexico 78 1 77 32 46 North Dakota 159 4 155 65 94 Oklahoma 175 19 156 56 119 Pennsylvania 104 0 104 28 76 Texas 770 4 766 147 623 W Virginia 16 0 16 -6 22 Wyoming 40 2 38 3 37 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
claphands22 Posted April 1, 2011 Share Posted April 1, 2011 I seem to nearly always have 1 to 3 leap positions on, usually with large, historically low volatility names that are trading at a meaningful discount, with a possible catalyst that may, or may not, develop. -example: SD partnering or asset sales, oil & NG price, JNJ arbitration victory, MSFT change in capital structure policy. JNJ long term call options seem interesting. You can currently buy Jan2013 call options with a 70 strike for 1.15. The call option seems irrationally cheap. I think I read before you were buying the prime broker options with a 5 year time frame, if you are, could you share the price on those? Just wondering. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valuecfa Posted April 1, 2011 Share Posted April 1, 2011 I seem to nearly always have 1 to 3 leap positions on, usually with large, historically low volatility names that are trading at a meaningful discount, with a possible catalyst that may, or may not, develop. -example: SD partnering or asset sales, oil & NG price, JNJ arbitration victory, MSFT change in capital structure policy. JNJ long term call options seem interesting. You can currently buy Jan2013 call options with a 70 strike for 1.15. The call option seems irrationally cheap. I think I read before you were buying the prime broker options with a 5 year time frame, if you are, could you share the price on those? Just wondering. I'd feel much better owning the $60 leaps on JNJ, but that is me. I don't own any options on any prime brokers. I used to have BAC warrants, but i decided to sell them and purchase the stock instead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Myth465 Posted April 3, 2011 Share Posted April 3, 2011 Myth - I have never met you but I can say in a very straight way I like you a lot! :) I have done very very well off this small position buying it in the low 5's. My only regret is not buying more!!! S Lol, I had to read that a few times, it sounded a bit off at first. :). In the interest of being prudent I have decided to trim my oil and gas holdings a bit and will sell 10% of my SD position. I would sell down ATPG as well, but my leaps are off quite a bit with the drop from $20 to mid $17s. I dont know whats going on with this market, but I feel like we are on borrowed time. Oil could rally to $150 in the summer on mid east issues, or pull back to $90 due to storage issues and either would make sense. Interesting times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Myth465 Posted April 12, 2011 Share Posted April 12, 2011 Talk about a pullback. I wish I sold 20%. Damn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ourkid8 Posted April 12, 2011 Share Posted April 12, 2011 Myth - Why trade in and out of this name when the fundamentals look very strong? Talk about a pullback. I wish I sold 20%. Damn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Myth465 Posted April 12, 2011 Share Posted April 12, 2011 For me oil and gas has come to dominate my portfolio, which makes days like this quite painful. While I like the stocks, I like to trim and prune when things get frothy. I sold some SD and 1/3rd of my ESV, this doesnt appear to have been enough, but I guess it never is when things go south. Its interesting though -Oil going from $110 to $100 or $95 is a none issue for most of these stocks. They move up 15% when oil goes up 25%, then pull back 20% when it goes back 10%. I plan to hold for now. I have missed the big chance to lock and gains, and it doesnt make sense to sell now for me. Ward has many levers, and has proven the trust structure can work. I am hoping for a Billion dollar trust, but they need enough producing wells to sell into it. Ward had an interview today and will have a presentation in New York which should be interesting. ---- From listening to the presentation. They still plan on having around 1 million acres. Plan to double the rigs in the Miss which would be quite nice. Trust units have to be done in small tracts of land which is interesting. Also they are getting better results with the wells which should push up the rates of return. ---- Bronco Drilling has been roped by CHK. I like it, hopefully SD can buy a few rigs from them or can buy a drilling unit from someone. I hope they buy LUKs drilling business. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alertmeipp Posted May 5, 2011 Share Posted May 5, 2011 down to 10.30 after result. The # is actually not bad. :'( Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alertmeipp Posted May 13, 2011 Share Posted May 13, 2011 Notice the 10$ leap is down to 3 bucks. Seems like a more bargain than the shares. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gfp Posted May 16, 2011 Share Posted May 16, 2011 A little bit of buying ($50k) by this director last week, just filed: http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1349436/000134943611000141/xslF345X03/edgardoc.xml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sea Island Posted May 17, 2011 Share Posted May 17, 2011 In the SD proxy statement there was this footnote: Mr. Ward has pledged 18,644,918 of these shares as security for personal loans. This is on page 47. Last year, I called Kevin White SD shareholder relations to ask him why TW was selling #6,000,000 shares at $5.86, I was buying at the time so I was curios to know. I was told that this share sale was to meet charitable commitment made by TW. Apparently he operates a school for wayward youth in Oklahoma. Perhaps someone with more coroporate governance experience, or a bookie, could explain why almost all of TW's shares are pledged for personal loans. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FFHWatcher Posted May 17, 2011 Share Posted May 17, 2011 I looked into this about a year ago. I learned that he and many nat gas/oil guys leverage holdings like crazy similar to Aubrey M at Chesapeake. They leverage up, buy at $50/share and collapse the stock through forced stock sales due to margin calls when the stock goes below $10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gfp Posted May 17, 2011 Share Posted May 17, 2011 At least Ward (or his creditors) was wise enough to hedge his CHK shares in 2006 to prevent a McClendon situation with margin calls. Aubrey came off looking like a real idiot in that situation and that whole 'lets buy his map collection' bit was very damaging to CHK's credibility. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FFHWatcher Posted May 18, 2011 Share Posted May 18, 2011 I remember trying to see what Ward still had for CHK shares after leaving and couldn't get anywhere as he was no longer an insider. How did you find out he hedged his CHK shares and how do you know he has CHK shares? Just curious... maybe i missed an article/SEC filing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gfp Posted May 18, 2011 Share Posted May 18, 2011 He entered into a bunch of forward sale agreements with collar like features back when he was still an insider. It's in the notes to his CHK form 4s that are still buried in his SEC stuff. Start here and press 'next 80' a ton of times and you'll get to the last CHK filings (if you are still curious). http://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/own-disp?action=getowner&CIK=0001038276 I don't know that he still owns any CHK - he may have sold out completely to get into SD and pay off loans. I don't care too much so I haven't tried to count the shares. I just remember it from when it came out because CHK always had a ton of insider buying (which in case you haven't noticed, I pay attention to). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alertmeipp Posted May 25, 2011 Share Posted May 25, 2011 Interesting move. http://finance.yahoo.com/news/SandRidge-Energy-Files-prnews-1171139108.html?x=0&.v=1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Myth465 Posted May 25, 2011 Share Posted May 25, 2011 This is great news. Sell em while you can...... Amazing when you think about it. We get the money up front, drill the wells. Then pay them back overtime. Huge rate of return. They only want a 6% - 10% yield and a call option on oil prices... My guess is $1 billion would take too long to put together, and they are worried about supply and demand. Damn just noted it was in the Permian. Very interesting indeed. They have the wells there to do this for a while inmo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alertmeipp Posted May 25, 2011 Share Posted May 25, 2011 Yes, that was the interesting part. Pretty smart way to finance. As long as it's well hedged and service cost is somewhat controlled, that's the best way to go to re-build this company. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Myth465 Posted May 26, 2011 Share Posted May 26, 2011 Ya this is so obvious I am kicking myself for missing it. I think Ward will go it alone and just keep doing this as long as the demand is out there. He probably didnt have enough wells in the Miss. This is interesting, he can do this for quite a while and can even keep buying miss acreage. The trust allow him to sell the acreage for an ungodly amount and if he is getting it for under $2k its a nice return...... Honestly I cant wait till this process is done. Imagine Ward and his team free from funding and capital -- Looking for new oil. Thats a nice call option. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sea Island Posted May 26, 2011 Share Posted May 26, 2011 Up next: CHK trusts the entire ball of wax and gets to Aurbey's $75 share valuation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alertmeipp Posted May 27, 2011 Share Posted May 27, 2011 Wow. Over 12, my 11 sold looks stupid NOW - but well, I promise myself to de-leverage. Really amazing how SD was able to "trust" its way through. True CHK can copy - but remember most of their production is still NG which doesn't give 100%+ ROI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sea Island Posted May 27, 2011 Share Posted May 27, 2011 I have heard from someone more informed than me, that the tust structure being utilized by SD is essentially the same to the VPP format used by CHK but obviously for retail investors, so that would indicate that CHK could do what SD has done with gassy acerage? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Myth465 Posted May 27, 2011 Share Posted May 27, 2011 I dont know either way. To me they seem different but I havent followed CHK. Retail investors are demanding so little return, I just cant see Oil and Gas companies drilling wells for so little, though the land values looks to be about the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alertmeipp Posted May 27, 2011 Share Posted May 27, 2011 They bot 90k for 800millions couple years ago. Now, IPO 60% of 16k (net 100k) for 6-700millions... that's good business. I know there is cost associated with it... I am very tempted to add back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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