ItsAValueTrap Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 Some companies use 2-D seismic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Myth465 Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 I think the market is being fair for SD, CHK, and PWE. If your balance sheet sucks, and you are throwing out serious capex, then you have to be growing production. These stocks all have growth like balance sheets, capex, ect; but struggle to grow production for various reasons. SD is growing production, but not as fast as people had hoped. I think this plus the lack of 1k plus wells, (I believe by design due to takeaway issues), the lack of a trans-formative big announcement, and the lack of success yet with the stacked play is the reason for the stock trading down. I was hoping we would continue to see Average 30 IP continue to go out, but I suspect it has gone down due to the lack of monster wells. Its understandable, but kills what was a good trend, over the last few quarters. The balance sheet and cash flow ratios scare away value investors, the lack of growth scares away growth investors. Which leaves a lack of a shareholder base for these companies. They are all in various stages of restructuring so I guess its to be expected. Lots of potential, but I used to tell my teachers potential was overrated when they said I had some. Will continue to hold the converts, the nice thing about them is you get paid a decent rate to wait. Same with Lightstream... Still need to listen to the call. LTS result is out, will be doing 10% buyback. SD is growing 15-20% in EBITA, I suspect this number is low-balled. SD and CHK get nice assets but lacking the balance sheet to develop those. Are you guys still think SD will be sold soon? Will have a look, love the buyback idea. Something tells me the market wont like it. SD is growing EBITDA nicely, but the lack of QoQ production growth really scared those driven by growth in my opinion. I dont think any of these companies will be sold now, all new Management who want the long haul. Was hoping old large shareholders would push for a sale, but it looks like they want to wait and see what happens. Now will they be taken over.... If I had cash and expertise I would be looking.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alertmeipp Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 SD - no growth on QoQ was broad-cast few months ago. GOM can be interesting. LTS - who know? Market will find a reason to sell it off as seen by SD and CHK. Maybe they will see WTI being lower in 4Q as the reason. For me, there is nothing new except the buyback. The released their production #s not long ago which have caused the down drift because too gassy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gordoffh Posted November 18, 2013 Share Posted November 18, 2013 took a position in SDT one of the trusts this morning. anyone else biting? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alertmeipp Posted November 19, 2013 Share Posted November 19, 2013 No, why you buy SDT? On a different note, I am seeing much of my paper profit vaporized last couple weeks on SD and other US producers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
txlaw Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 http://www.kansas.com/2013/11/19/3127904/sandridge-plans-to-drill-100-kansas.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alertmeipp Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 http://www.kansas.com/2013/11/19/3127904/sandridge-plans-to-drill-100-kansas.html Can the market keep ignore SD's progress if Kansas prove out to be a success as well. Hope the market can work out the infrastructure issues sooner rather than later, WTI discount is painful to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T-bone1 Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 took a position in SDT one of the trusts this morning. anyone else biting? Gordoffh, if you are going to own one of the sandridge trusts, SDR is a lot cheaper than SDT. Take a look at the PV10 values from the most recent annual reports. T-bone1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alertmeipp Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 took a position in SDT one of the trusts this morning. anyone else biting? Gordoffh, if you are going to own one of the sandridge trusts, SDR is a lot cheaper than SDT. Take a look at the PV10 values from the most recent annual reports. T-bone1 Why not just buy SD.. unless you really need to dividend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ourkid8 Posted November 27, 2013 Share Posted November 27, 2013 Sandridge is at $5.55 right now which is unbelivably cheap! I cannot understand why this continues to sell-off... It's seems to be selling-off with the price of oil but this quarter will be extremely profitable due to the hedges. Based on the investor presentation, we are hedged for 3.49MMBbls @ 99.48. Oil price is at $92.12 so an 8% upside. Our Nat Gas hedges will also help this quarter's results as we are hedged for 12.42Bcf @ $4.11 so a 5.4% upside. As long as there are no execution challenges, we are in for a superb end of the year. What am I missing?!?!?!?!?! Tks, S Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil_Buffett Posted November 27, 2013 Share Posted November 27, 2013 Sandridge is at $5.55 right now which is unbelivably cheap! I cannot understand why this continues to sell-off... It's seems to be selling-off with the price of oil but this quarter will be extremely profitable due to the hedges. Based on the investor presentation, we are hedged for 3.49MMBbls @ 99.48. Oil price is at $92.12 so an 8% upside. Our Nat Gas hedges will also help this quarter's results as we are hedged for 12.42Bcf @ $4.11 so a 5.4% upside. As long as there are no execution challenges, we are in for a superb end of the year. What am I missing?!?!?!?!?! Tks, S i cant also understand the selloff. sandridge does all the right steps. new ceo who is great. cost cutting. effective Drilling, right capital allocation. good Long term shareholders (tpg, Mount kellett, prem, leon cooperman) i dont get it!! but i think the market dont like Sandridge the last few months. it is a lot of pain, but we have to wait. 2 years from now, it will be better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zippy1 Posted November 27, 2013 Share Posted November 27, 2013 Sandridge is at $5.55 right now which is unbelivably cheap! I cannot understand why this continues to sell-off... It's seems to be selling-off with the price of oil but this quarter will be extremely profitable due to the hedges. Based on the investor presentation, we are hedged for 3.49MMBbls @ 99.48. Oil price is at $92.12 so an 8% upside. Our Nat Gas hedges will also help this quarter's results as we are hedged for 12.42Bcf @ $4.11 so a 5.4% upside. As long as there are no execution challenges, we are in for a superb end of the year. What am I missing?!?!?!?!?! Tks, S i cant also understand the selloff. sandridge does all the right steps. new ceo who is great. cost cutting. effective Drilling, right capital allocation. good Long term shareholders (tpg, Mount kellett, prem, leon cooperman) i dont get it!! but i think the market dont like Sandridge the last few months. it is a lot of pain, but we have to wait. 2 years from now, it will be better could it be tax loss selling driving the price down? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alertmeipp Posted November 27, 2013 Share Posted November 27, 2013 check WTI pricing, it is down big today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ourkid8 Posted November 27, 2013 Share Posted November 27, 2013 We are fully hedged at an 8% premium for this year. I just don't understand this aggressive of a selloff. There is a point where these hedge funds who are running the show will need to look at opportunities to maximize value for their shareholders. S check WTI pricing, it is down big today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alertmeipp Posted November 28, 2013 Share Posted November 28, 2013 We are fully hedged at an 8% premium for this year. I just don't understand this aggressive of a selloff. There is a point where these hedge funds who are running the show will need to look at opportunities to maximize value for their shareholders. S check WTI pricing, it is down big today I hear you. But this is not the first time and probably won't be the last unless it's get a buyout offer soon. On top of that, the market hates North America NOW because of over-supply. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gordoffh Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 large draw on NG this week - sure would like to see some impact on SD and my ECA shares - http://ir.eia.gov/ngs/ngs.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fareastwarriors Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 Yup, it's chilly in many parts of the US. I'm in Cali and I'm frozen! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alertmeipp Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 Any idea what commodities this company is selling? I see oil and natural gas going up quite a bit but this is going down or flat daily This stock is trading lower then when TW was in charge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil_Buffett Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 Any idea what commodities this company is selling? I see oil and natural gas going up quite a bit but this is going down or flat daily This stock is trading lower then when TW was in charge. the Price movement is absoultely a joke!! >:( Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oldye Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 Any idea what commodities this company is selling? I see oil and natural gas going up quite a bit but this is going down or flat daily This stock is trading lower then when TW was in charge. the Price movement is absoultely a joke!! >:( What a horrible world it must be where you get improvements in fundamentals and the stock price does not adjust right away... I hope they use this as a hedging opportunity @ >$4 :o Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ourkid8 Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 These are opportunities you add to your position as they should have blow out 2013 results!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil_Buffett Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 Any idea what commodities this company is selling? I see oil and natural gas going up quite a bit but this is going down or flat daily This stock is trading lower then when TW was in charge. the Price movement is absoultely a joke!! >:( What a horrible world it must be where you get improvements in fundamentals and the stock price does not adjust right away... I hope they use this as a hedging opportunity @ >$4 :o if Tom ward would be still at sandridge, i would understand why the stock is down and going down more and more. but we have a new ceo, cost cutting, great Investors in the back (tpg...), a nat gas Price which is stable and not falling. everything is fine. next quarter will be good. i can not understand it. very very sad >:( Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T-bone1 Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 I am not short Sandridge, and CHK's Miss Lime sale suggests the company is currently undervalued, but I think there is a simple answer to all of the head scratching here: The Mississipian Limestone is not a "resource play". Nothing I have seen suggests that this a predictable or repeatable play. It is not possible to value this company based on acreage or discounted cash flow because there is no way of knowing what the next well will look like. I think there is a perception (probably a correct one) that the company is doing their very best to drill the best possible wells they can right now, using all of the information they have. If this is the best they can do, cherry picking the best well sites from existing well pads, I think the future for the company is very uncertain. I have spent a lot of time valuing shale assets and this is NOT a shale asset or even a repeatable "resource play". It is a crappy unpredictable layer of limestone interspersed with other rock that is full of water. I've never talked to a geologist who could tell me "this is the best place to drill" in the Miss Lime, or "this is where I would drill the next well". Simply stated, I don't think it is possible to see what the company will look like in a year or two, or what their results will look like. Just because operations are improving today doesn't mean it is possible to value this company. I have no position and I think the company is more likely to be cheap than expensive at these prices, but a lot of people on this board seem to be surprised by the price action. I would ask you two simple questions: What is this company worth? How did you arrive at that valuation? I hope longs don't take offense at this post. I would genuinely like to see more of a dialogue on these two questions. For me, Sandridge is in the "too hard" pile, but maybe someone here has seen information I haven't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rogermunibond Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 Most small E&Ps have seen declines from 10-50% over the last few months. If you compared SD to a small cap oil and gas ETF, I think they'd be worse than average but certainly not alone. XOP and IEO are probably too big to be a good comparison. T-bone-1 -- I think your point bears listening to from SD bulls. Carbonate formations are NOT the same as shale. Saltwater disposal is a huge cost. Obviously, SD had to spend millions to build out the infrastructure to handle all this saltwater. Stacked plays is the new industry lingo for lots of good formations on top of each other and is being used in the Permian to some great effect in terms of valuations. So it's not surprising for SD to pick up on that too and talk up how they can target upper, middle and lower Mississipian as well as Chester and Woodford. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmichaud Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 I am not short Sandridge, and CHK's Miss Lime sale suggests the company is currently undervalued, but I think there is a simple answer to all of the head scratching here: The Mississipian Limestone is not a "resource play". Nothing I have seen suggests that this a predictable or repeatable play. It is not possible to value this company based on acreage or discounted cash flow because there is no way of knowing what the next well will look like. I think there is a perception (probably a correct one) that the company is doing their very best to drill the best possible wells they can right now, using all of the information they have. If this is the best they can do, cherry picking the best well sites from existing well pads, I think the future for the company is very uncertain. I have spent a lot of time valuing shale assets and this is NOT a shale asset or even a repeatable "resource play". It is a crappy unpredictable layer of limestone interspersed with other rock that is full of water. I've never talked to a geologist who could tell me "this is the best place to drill" in the Miss Lime, or "this is where I would drill the next well". Simply stated, I don't think it is possible to see what the company will look like in a year or two, or what their results will look like. Just because operations are improving today doesn't mean it is possible to value this company. I have no position and I think the company is more likely to be cheap than expensive at these prices, but a lot of people on this board seem to be surprised by the price action. I would ask you two simple questions: What is this company worth? How did you arrive at that valuation? I hope longs don't take offense at this post. I would genuinely like to see more of a dialogue on these two questions. For me, Sandridge is in the "too hard" pile, but maybe someone here has seen information I haven't. +1 What is this company worth? How did you arrive at that valuation? These are two key questions I have yet to figure out why they are not discussed more in all threads. An ass-load of tech banter could be eliminated if people focused on valuation - and if the amount of non-valuation conversation that occurs is required to invest in a tech company, then likely that company is in the too hard pile. Same goes with SD. The impression I get is that the general attitude is, "TPG and Cooperman say it's worth X, so now we can just focus on results that fit that conclusion". SD is an overleveraged piece of garbage trading at 5.7X 2014 EBITDA estimates with net debt/EBITDA of 3.2X. Unless you think this will get bought out, why would you own it here? Big investors pounding the table is not a reason. Devon Energy trades at less than 3.4X EBITDA with net debt/EBITDA less than 1.5X. Liquids make up 57% of production pro forma for its GeoSouthern acquisition, versus 47% for SD. Plus, DVN has far greater diversity with Canadian oil sands, Barnett, Eagle Ford and Permian operations. Unless a buyout is in the offing, there is zero reason to own SD or even CHK over DVN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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