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The CEO believes the company is worth $15.50/share which means it is significantly undervalued.  They have the resources to continue with their current capex commitment and also repurchase 8% of the shares outstanding.  Its a win/win for shareholders!!!

 

Tks,

S

 

:)

Wow

Didnt expect them to buyback.

 

They still are leveraged.  I actually expect LTS to buyback. Not this.

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The CEO believes the company is worth $15.50/share which means it is significantly undervalued.  They have the resources to continue with their current capex commitment and also repurchase 8% of the shares outstanding.  Its a win/win for shareholders!!!

 

Tks,

S

 

:)

Wow

Didnt expect them to buyback.

 

They still are leveraged.  I actually expect LTS to buyback. Not this.

 

How did he get 15.5?

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The CEO believes the company is worth $15.50/share which means it is significantly undervalued.  They have the resources to continue with their current capex commitment and also repurchase 8% of the shares outstanding.  Its a win/win for shareholders!!!

 

Tks,

S

 

:)

Wow

Didnt expect them to buyback.

 

They still are leveraged.  I actually expect LTS to buyback. Not this.

 

How did he get 15.5?

 

I'd be interested to hear where the $15.5 came from as well. 

 

On the last CC, Cooperman indicated that Bennett had expressed that NAV was between $9 and $15, and so he argued that maybe SD should start buying back shares.  And Bennett said that, yeah, since we are making between 60% and 100% returns on drilling, we have to consider when, if ever, we will buy back shares as a capital allocation decision.

 

Based on the decision today, it does indeed look like the minimum NAV is assessed at $9 by the management team. 

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I did not have a chance to listen to the Q&A at the latest analyst / investor day but please see the following write-up.  It has an aggressive asset value of $15.5/share and a conservative value of $9/share. 

 

http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2014/03/10/shares-of-sandridge-energy-inc-could-surge-to-1550.aspx

 

SandRidge Energy (NYSE: SD  ) stock now sells for slightly more than $6.25 per share. That puts its total market cap at just about $3.2 billion, which CEO James Bennett argues vastly undervalues the company. He sees shares worth upward of $15.50 each. Here's why.

 

Adding up the reserves

During the question and answer section of SandRidge's latest analyst and investor day, Bennett was asked to assess the net asset value of the stock given the potential of the company's drilling program.

 

Bennett went through the math a couple of different ways. He first noted that the base value of the company was in proved reserves which currently have a PV-10 value of $4.1 billion. In addition to those proved reserves, the company also has probable and possible reserves with a PV-10 value of $6.2 billion. After backing out the $800 million of those reserves owed by SandRidge Mississippian Trust I (NYSE: SDT  ) , SandRidge Mississippian Trust II (NYSE: SDR  ) , and SandRidge Permian Trust (NYSE: PER  ) that pushes down the value of the company's reserves to about $9.5 billion. That's well above the company's current enterprise value of $5.5 billion, but we're not done yet, according to Bennett.

 

This hidden asset has value

In addition to the value of the resources still in the ground, the company also owns a valuable saltwater disposal system that it doesn't get credit for creating. Bennett suggested that if this was owned in a MLP structure it would be valued between eight and 11 times EBITDA. He noted that the asset produces $135 million in EBITDA and used a value multiple of nine times EBITDA to demonstrate the value SandRidge has created by building the system. Under that scenario the value for these assets would be $1.15 billion. That's substantially more than the $470 million of capital SandRidge energy has invested into the business.

 

Given the comments that management made at the analyst day, it wouldn't be surprising to see the company either create a MLP structure to hold the asset or sell part of the resource to another MLP company in order to unlock a portion of this value.

 

Add it all up

Adding up the proved reserves, resource potential, and the value of the saltwater disposal assets, while subtracting the value of the reserves owned by the trusts, as well as the company's $1.6 billion in net debt, gets the company to a net asset value of about $9 billion. Apply that across the company's 580 million shares and that equates to a per-share value of about $15.50.

 

While that might be an aggressive value, an even more conservative assessment of the company's assets yields a value much higher than today's share prices. In another scenario, Bennett ascribed a more conservative value to the probable and possible reserves by discounting them by 15% instead of 10%. That dropped the net asset value to about $6 billion, or $10 per share. Finally, even assigning no real value other than book value to the saltwater disposal system yields a net asset value of $9 per share.

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The CEO believes the company is worth $15.50/share which means it is significantly undervalued.  They have the resources to continue with their current capex commitment and also repurchase 8% of the shares outstanding.  Its a win/win for shareholders!!!

 

Tks,

S

 

:)

Wow

Didnt expect them to buyback.

 

They still are leveraged.  I actually expect LTS to buyback. Not this.

 

How did he get 15.5?

 

by doing a share buyback for 2/3'rds of the shares......  :P

 

 

I saw the price drop below 5 yesterday.. I was tempted to increase my holdings..... very tempted...

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Guest hellsten

I followed Allan Mecham out of this one, meaning SD and XCO went into the too hard pile (months ago). Too many variables. What's the phrase I'm looking for, butt cigar, cigar butt, wishful thinking?

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I could not agree more.  Let's  hope they maximize the $200mm buyback under $6/share.  Once the operational issues have been addressed, it will significantly juice our returns. 

 

despite the buy back you might still get to buy under 5 today - kick in that buyback now

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If the ceo really think this worth 15. I expect some insiders will step in.  I don't remember seeing any of those

 

Yes that does bother me as well.

 

This bothers me a bit too.  But looking at the silver lining, if there are material transactions in the works (or discussions thereon), they are probably not allowed to buy, no?

 

I'm more worried about how a buyback worsens their credit metrics. 

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I am not worried about their credit metrics as long as they are executing against their 3 year plan and as per management they are on target.  We are lucky to have very strong management who is absolutely committed to creating shareholder value.  Each pud is returning 60-90% irr and they just announced a share repurchase plan which means they see the stock undervalued by at least 60%.   

 

Tks,

S

 

If the ceo really think this worth 15. I expect some insiders will step in.  I don't remember seeing any of those

 

Yes that does bother me as well.

 

This bothers me a bit too.  But looking at the silver lining, if there are material transactions in the works (or discussions thereon), they are probably not allowed to buy, no?

 

I'm more worried about how a buyback worsens their credit metrics.

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I am not worried about their credit metrics as long as they are executing against their 3 year plan and as per management they are on target.  We are lucky to have very strong management who is absolutely committed to creating shareholder value.  Each pud is returning 60-90% irr and they just announced a share repurchase plan which means they see the stock undervalued by at least 60%.   

 

Tks,

S

 

If the ceo really think this worth 15. I expect some insiders will step in.  I don't remember seeing any of those

 

Yes that does bother me as well.

 

This bothers me a bit too.  But looking at the silver lining, if there are material transactions in the works (or discussions thereon), they are probably not allowed to buy, no?

 

I'm more worried about how a buyback worsens their credit metrics.

 

Yeah, on balance, I like this announcement. 

 

For one thing, it signals what they feel NAV is for any potential acquirer.  Second, it does provide another avenue for capital allocation that benefits shareholders (remaining shareholders in the case of buybacks).  Finally, it also indicates that they're comfortable with their guidance/plans with respect to cash flow.

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Exactly! 

 

I am not worried about their credit metrics as long as they are executing against their 3 year plan and as per management they are on target.  We are lucky to have very strong management who is absolutely committed to creating shareholder value.  Each pud is returning 60-90% irr and they just announced a share repurchase plan which means they see the stock undervalued by at least 60%.   

 

Tks,

S

 

If the ceo really think this worth 15. I expect some insiders will step in.  I don't remember seeing any of those

 

Yes that does bother me as well.

 

This bothers me a bit too.  But looking at the silver lining, if there are material transactions in the works (or discussions thereon), they are probably not allowed to buy, no?

 

I'm more worried about how a buyback worsens their credit metrics.

 

Yeah, on balance, I like this announcement. 

 

For one thing, it signals what they feel NAV is for any potential acquirer.  Second, it does provide another avenue for capital allocation that benefits shareholders (remaining shareholders in the case of buybacks).  Finally, it also indicates that they're comfortable with their guidance/plans with respect to cash flow.

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  • 2 weeks later...

I was trying to find out if they had actually bought back some shares. I looked on the Edgar website but, may be looking at the wrong forms like the #4. Which one is it?

 

In Canada, you can find out whenever a company is actually buying back shares by looking at insider trades. I assume it is the same rules/disclosure in the U.S., but never looked at it.

 

Thanks

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How substantial is the repurchase plan?  Are we talking just enough shares to cover the options handed out being converted into shares?  Or are we looking at a real 10% share count reduction?

 

I've owned SD for a while.  I think my cost basis right now is $6 or so.  I'm still in mostly because Prem Watsa has not made any changes to his holdings.  That will be the only event that triggers fear in me.

 

 

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The the US, issuer share repurchases are not reported under insider trades.  You have to find them in the quarterly reports.  They are sometimes enumerated in the conference calls if someone asks or it is a big part of the story.

 

I was trying to find out if they had actually bought back some shares. I looked on the Edgar website but, may be looking at the wrong forms like the #4. Which one is it?

 

In Canada, you can find out whenever a company is actually buying back shares by looking at insider trades. I assume it is the same rules/disclosure in the U.S., but never looked at it.

 

Thanks

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