rijk Posted September 13, 2011 Share Posted September 13, 2011 i wouldn't be surprised at all if they are buying again, they seem to think its worth around 12, because that's where they sold, so anything below 6 would be a decent buy i think that besides the remaining 4 million common shares, they still own much more in pfds, anybody know how many? regards rijk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gordoffh Posted September 13, 2011 Share Posted September 13, 2011 Tom ward is on Cramer today Thought he did a decent job getting the play out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Myth465 Posted September 14, 2011 Share Posted September 14, 2011 Wards gotten much better at interviewing. I agree with him, be aggressive as long as the insurance is there via hedging. We have a trust probably being announced during the next call, hopefully its paired with selling off the none core East Texas / Gulf gas, and a JV in one of the Miss plays. That would do wonders for the share price. http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000045442 The share price should recover as they close the funding gap. I hate to say it, but I agree with Cramer..... With that said the Cramer bounce, will likely give way to the Cramer fall.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AZ_Value Posted September 14, 2011 Share Posted September 14, 2011 I will definitely hold on to my SD and enjoy the ride. And if another significant dip was to happen then I wouldn't hesitate to double down. Ward is doing every single thing he promises to do, and unlocking value as he goes along. And he is smart enough to hedge and lock in great returns on his production for a few years out so any hit to oil prices wouldn't necessarily hurt the value of the company even though the stock would definitely feel it. I am actually wondering if I shouldn't pray for Mr Mkt to drive the price back down to $3-$4 so that I can just go all in and find something else to do for a little while. :) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCG Posted September 14, 2011 Share Posted September 14, 2011 arg...another CEO referring to his company as a 'growth stock'. See the Ebix thread for my opinion CEO's that refer to their business as a stock. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alertmeipp Posted September 22, 2011 Share Posted September 22, 2011 Wonder if I should flip my options to commons in case of prolong distressed market.. Thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Myth465 Posted September 22, 2011 Share Posted September 22, 2011 Wonder if I should flip my options to commons in case of prolong distressed market.. Thoughts? I like all my companies, my only concern is my options strategy. Someone may call time before I get paid. I am going to wait for the 2014s and Q3 release and go from there. I think SD will work out fine, but am much more concerned about ATPG..... I would prefer a big dip crash sooner rather than later, this range bound death by 1000 paper cuts is getting a bit old. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alertmeipp Posted September 22, 2011 Share Posted September 22, 2011 I have the same worries. Those options are cheap - we are not paying too much premium. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ourkid8 Posted September 25, 2011 Share Posted September 25, 2011 I am in the exact same situation as you as I am certain SD will work out fine but I am definitely worried about ATPG. The value is there but management keeps on pissing me off. I have been considering selling out of my position at a loss and buying more SD but it's difficult when you know it is extremely undervalued. (I am also debating about selling out of Hanfeng at a loss but it's a difficult decision :-( ) Thankfully my core positions in my portfolio has been holding up rather well or the companies have a large share repurchase program in which they are able to repurchase shares on the cheap. Wonder if I should flip my options to commons in case of prolong distressed market.. Thoughts? I like all my companies, my only concern is my options strategy. Someone may call time before I get paid. I am going to wait for the 2014s and Q3 release and go from there. I think SD will work out fine, but am much more concerned about ATPG..... I would prefer a big dip crash sooner rather than later, this range bound death by 1000 paper cuts is getting a bit old. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CONeal Posted September 25, 2011 Share Posted September 25, 2011 "The value is there but management keeps on pissing me off." Had the same problem with ATPG management In late 2009. It was either sell the stock or take anger management classes :D. Sold and haven't lost sleep over it. Hadn't even looked at the price till you posted. The company is permanently off my list SD is starting to look interesting again but wonder how the market would react if oil went to $70. Despite the hedges in place for the next couple of years, no one else in the industry hedges like that. Wonder if SD would be thrown out with the bath water if that were to occur? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alertmeipp Posted September 25, 2011 Share Posted September 25, 2011 "The value is there but management keeps on pissing me off." Had the same problem with ATPG management In late 2009. It was either sell the stock or take anger management classes :D. Sold and haven't lost sleep over it. Hadn't even looked at the price till you posted. The company is permanently off my list SD is starting to look interesting again but wonder how the market would react if oil went to $70. Despite the hedges in place for the next couple of years, no one else in the industry hedges like that. Wonder if SD would be thrown out with the bath water if that were to occur? at 6, the market has priced worse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Myth465 Posted September 26, 2011 Share Posted September 26, 2011 ATPG is quite interesting. I am very bullish about 2012 with the new production, but its always next years stock and has been that way for 3 years. I dont know how they screw up 2012 but they will likely find a way. SD is set no matter what inmo. Grantham thinks a crash in oil will only setup the oil markets for a nice run when the downturn ends. I tend to agree. With $70 + oil they are set and have hedges in place. At $40 oil Tom Ward will do something smart via acquisition. The risk with SD is time, with ATPG its operating risk. I have been watching for 2 years and they have yet to hit any target they have set. At this point I have huge booked gains, and decent sized none booked losses. I dont want to pay taxes in 2012 so something will be sold. I will either double down on both, wait 30 days, and then sell half. Or will sell ATPG to buy more SD. SD was priced at $6 last year, with $50-$60 oil after having done a big acquisition. It is almost a totally different company now, so $6 seems like a steal, but it could continue to selloff given whats going on in the markets. I plan to hold my cash until the market makes me an offer I cant refuse outside of tax loss selling. We may get SD, or CHK convertible preferreds yielding 8.5%, or may get MLPs with hedged production at 20% yields again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CONeal Posted September 27, 2011 Share Posted September 27, 2011 Myth, Regarding SD just throwing a couple of things out that you might want to keep in mind the next 30 days. Last year the stock got down to the low $4 range due to worry of debt. While by and large the hedges will help against it, the market seems to pick on SD during times of stress like its a step child. In the short term (next 45 days) I think there may be some serious volitity with SD if you looking to add more for the following reasons. 1. The market will be rough in general as the solution for what to do with Greece gets closer to resolution. Suppose to have a plan in place by Nov. 7th if I remember correctly. This is the main reason why I think oil might touch $70. Of course I expect the fear mongering media to play their role for ratings. :-) 2. Tom Ward's yearly tax selling of shares will be around that time. Was Oct. 5th and 6th last year. His tax issues maybe known in advance but it seems like people forget about it every year. If both of those variables play out close together :o is what some people will see regarding the share price. I don't hold any shares right now mainly b/c I'm fully invested but if an opportunity presents itself around $4 I might have to reconsider. Just some things you might want to keep in mind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Myth465 Posted September 27, 2011 Share Posted September 27, 2011 I agree, and have stopped buying the dip, for the reasons you have listed. For some reason SD trades in line with WTI, even though they are fully hedged. Its not as bad at ATPG, but they still selloff pretty hard on any sort of bad news whether its related to the market or oil and gas. I think Greece has a few more innings and the volatility will continue. Europe doesnt want to solve the problem, and inmo will keep doing half measures which only kick the can. So the big focus for me is on harvesting tax losses, while maintaining a decent position. It would be hard though to avoid adding at $4, especially with all the changes..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Myth465 Posted September 27, 2011 Share Posted September 27, 2011 Another step in the right direction. Only 25k acres. Not bad http://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/sandridge-energy-inc-signs-agreement-to-sell-certain-east-texas-properties-for-231-million-and-announces-revised-production-guidance-130656003.html Soon SD will be New Miss, Old Miss, and WTO. Hopefully we have JVs and Trusts on all 3 by this time next year. I think we will have a trust announcement on Q3 release, and perhaps 1 more asset sale by year end. My money would be on for a sell of the Gulf Coast / Other assets. The SD story is becoming an easy one. Hopefully they use the 5% move in WTI to continue hedging. http://phx.corporate-ir.net/External.File?item=UGFyZW50SUQ9NDQwNzI4fENoaWxkSUQ9NDYyNzUyfFR5cGU9MQ==&t=1 I like the new Logo :). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alertmeipp Posted September 29, 2011 Share Posted September 29, 2011 Getting crashed again. Would not feel as worry if my position is 100% commons. Leverage has a price. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rijk Posted September 29, 2011 Share Posted September 29, 2011 how much pfds does fairfax still own? regards rijk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Myth465 Posted September 29, 2011 Share Posted September 29, 2011 I believe they still own the convertible preferreds. Also alert I like leverage but this is proving painful. My plan is to hold cash, instead of holding a10% common position, I would prefer a 2% options position with 8% cash, role over the options and scale in once you think the turn has happened.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alertmeipp Posted October 1, 2011 Share Posted October 1, 2011 Seriously, is the world ending? >:( Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Myth465 Posted October 1, 2011 Share Posted October 1, 2011 I think we are all paying a fun game of do you know what you hold. Honestly I really like SD and see value in ATPG. The world wont end, but oil could trade down to 40 thoughout this mess. That means SD at $4 or $3 which makes no sense, but may happen. I plan to double down one more time, then sell 50% of the position for tax loses. I will do so once the 2014s come out. I am a long term oil bull, but at this time we have a bear market coming. Its when fortunes are made and lost..... I like SD and oil and will stick with it until 2014. I hope the selloff continues because I would like an extremely low basis... I say brush up on your buy list. Everything you like may just go on sell, for me thats ESV, FTP, SD, ATPG, MERC, and a few others Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AZ_Value Posted October 1, 2011 Share Posted October 1, 2011 Seriously, is the world ending? >:( Lol... I'm not sure but my portfolio is behaving as if judgement day was around the corner :) The world wont end, but oil could trade down to 40 thoughout this mess. That means SD at $4 or $3 which makes no sense, but may happen. I plan to double down one more time, then sell 50% of the position for tax loses. I will do so once the 2014s come out. I am a long term oil bull, but at this time we have a bear market coming. Its when fortunes are made and lost..... I like SD and oil and will stick with it until 2014. I hope the selloff continues because I would like an extremely low basis... I say brush up on your buy list. Everything you like may just go on sell, for me thats ESV, FTP, SD, ATPG, MERC, and a few others I agree with this. Whatever nonsense we're going through right now will allow some people to get rich 3-5 years out for sure. Personally I have 2 problems: 1. Raising cash fast enough 2. Me! As, I've been pulling the trigger sporadically the last few weeks. But I've decided to put the gun down and just wait for the dust to settle. I will scale back in eventually when the dust settles, but I'm not sure I'll be able to control myself if/when SD goes back down below $5. I really like ESV, it's on my watchlist. I think a lot of money will be made if it continues to go lower and I will wait for 2014 LEAPS and get in hopefully the dust will have settled by then. I was never confident enough in myself understanding the industry to buy into MERC, FBK, FTP etc... but I swear to God that if MERC goes back to 25 cents (or if say SD goes below 3 bucks), I'm selling my clothes and furniture and buying stocks ;D Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AZ_Value Posted October 1, 2011 Share Posted October 1, 2011 I really like this Oped in today's Journal http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970204226204576602524023932438.html?mod=WSJ_Opinion_LEADTop Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alertmeipp Posted October 2, 2011 Share Posted October 2, 2011 I bot a bunch of SD Friday, I don't have much cash left at all! My plan is to replace options with commons eventually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ourkid8 Posted October 2, 2011 Share Posted October 2, 2011 I was debating if I should add as well but I am still holding off buying every large dip. There will be a price I won't be able to help myself and we are getting close to it. I sold my position in HF so I have a bit of cash. I may also sell my position in ATPG and buy more SD but I have not decided as of yet. Hmmm... Thanks, s I bot a bunch of SD Friday, I don't have much cash left at all! My plan is to replace options with commons eventually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Myth465 Posted October 2, 2011 Share Posted October 2, 2011 ourkid8 thats what I decided last month or so. At some point the market will make me an offer I cant refuse, until then I am just watching. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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