gordoffh Posted December 23, 2011 Share Posted December 23, 2011 Heavy volume pre market. There were a lot of shorts on this stock. I think we longs deserve a run after that disaster in august Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Myth465 Posted December 23, 2011 Share Posted December 23, 2011 Heavy volume pre market. There were a lot of shorts on this stock. I think we longs deserve a run after that disaster in august Agreed, been very painful the last few months. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alertmeipp Posted December 24, 2011 Share Posted December 24, 2011 Heavy volume pre market. There were a lot of shorts on this stock. I think we longs deserve a run after that disaster in august Agreed, been very painful the last few months. Yup, especially for those stupid options holders. (me). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alertmeipp Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 back to mid 7. I guess with gas at mid 2, their 40% gas production won't be pretty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zorrofan Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 Well, TW has done it again..... http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/02/01/dynamicoffshore-sandridge-idUSL4E8D17R720120201?feedType=RSS&feedName=rbssFinancialServicesAndRealEstateNews&rpc=43 Designed to add cashflow to SD to fund drilling? cheers Zorro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alertmeipp Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 I am going to load up if it gets to 6s tmw. It's not bad news. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gordoffh Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 Just saw the news - sure would be nice if it would have been up after hours since it is my largest holding - from what I have read so far doesn't seem to be a terrible deal - ward being seen as a cowboy again- has recovered from the lows - hope you don,t get the opportunity to buy in the 6's - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alertmeipp Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 looks from the surface, it's a deal that reduces both risk & upside. Anyone have access to the IPO prospectus for http://www.dynamicosr.com/? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oldye Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 If you don't mind me asking, why is this your largest holding? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Myth465 Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 This is my second largest holding... Alot of the position being gains, and alot from pushing in more and more. I like Oil and Gas, and love Tom Ward / SD. Its like a much less complex CHK with less gas, more oil, and only 3 major plays. On the surface and without seeing the details of this deal, I like it. I thought Ward would sell 500k Miss Acreage for $2 billion (cash and carries), and then sit on his hands for 4 years focusing on operations. I view that as the COOs job, and would prefer Ward sniffing around for cheap deals. I figured at most we would get a trust every 6 months and the share price would be stuck at $10 till 2014. I also have missed the boat on a few big deals which crashed. I knew the stocks well, but sat on my hands. We have FTP, ATSG, WDC, SD, Petrobank, Petrobakken. All crashed - some more than 50%, and all have recovered or are recovering. I own 2013 Leaps and will buy some 2014s and wait until SD is back to $9. Ward has likely already worked out a $2 billion dollar deal for 500k acres of Miss land, may sell the legacy Gulf Coast Assets, and is doing a big trust. We also have a potential recovery in Nat Gas, and perhaps a spike in Oil due to Iran or a recovery. I only see 2 risks. A fall off in oil prices due to the economy, and execution risk (which I view as low). The only major thing I dont like about this deal is its offshore. I dont really like that space. Many questioned his shift from Gas / We would be bankrupt if he hadnt have given up the gas upside as some said he was doing...... ---- Ward has earned a long piece of rope. His only bad deals had to do with his original acquisition of SD shares, and his purchases related to Nat Gas. I dont think he can go wrong when buying oil assets (Arena, Old Miss, New Miss), and I believe its a buy if you like the Oil space. I cant wait to hear the call tomorrow, and see the updated presentation once this deal closes. I will buy if we get below $6.75 or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Myth465 Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 Seems like a steal. Deleverages SD a bit. 50% production and reserves in gas means we may have bought gas fairly low depending on the PV10 pricing ($2.8). The issue is SD though can add reserves for years due to drilling rules and how reserves are booked. Reserve replacement will be quite high year after year. With us using 50% shares we are giving awhile some upside, unless this company has tons of unbooked reserves as well. Ward either wants the debt issue off the table, or sees upside in infill drilling. 80% proved reserves means not much reinvestment and auctual FCF from the properties. The call will be very interesting. Arena had tons up upside, so did the other oil acquisition. The question is aside from the PV10 discount is this company as undervalued as SD. If not then they have basically issued shares to reduce leverage to a degree. 74 million shares vs fully diluted count of 512 million is fairly significant. Based on the metrics we are giving away upside. Ward rarely gives away upside, so I cant wait to see what he sees. We see a bit tomorrow, and it all when it closes. Upon reflection Ward has fleeced most of the folks sitting across the table from him on the last few deals - especially on his last 2 take overs / unders.... Tom L. Ward, Chairman and CEO of SandRidge, commented, "The value of this acquisition will be evident immediately in our results. We are acquiring these assets for less than PV-10 of the proved developed reserves and at just over $50,000 per flowing barrel. Additionally, we expect these operations to contribute significant free cash flow in excess of the anticipated annual drilling and recompletion capital budget of $200 million." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gordoffh Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 Posted by: oldye « on: Today at 07:03:37 PM » Insert Quote If you don't mind me asking, why is this your largest holding? Originally got in when fairfax bought in and generally liked the sector - the story was intriguing and myth has laid it out very well so no need to repeat other than I did sell half of my position last march and have since bought back and then some at lower prices - playing with some house money - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gordoffh Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 SD under 7 in pre market so for those who were going to add you might get the opportunity - I will probably sell a little PBN and add myself although I would rather see stock jump a dollar or more after a bravo conference call where ward presents the acquisition as a no brainer and the market responds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alertmeipp Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 SD under 7 in pre market so for those who were going to add you might get the opportunity - I will probably sell a little PBN and add myself although I would rather see stock jump a dollar or more after a bravo conference call where ward presents the acquisition as a no brainer and the market responds Market doesn't like risky growth before and now is not happy with the reduced growth with lower risk. Tom keeps saying it's cheap - not sure what he is seeing that the market doesn't yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oldye Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 Market doesn't like risky growth before and now is not happy with the reduced growth with lower risk. Tom keeps saying it's cheap - not sure what he is seeing that the market doesn't yet. Considering maintenance capex and interest, you don't have much left over to account for dilution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alertmeipp Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 Market doesn't like risky growth before and now is not happy with the reduced growth with lower risk. Tom keeps saying it's cheap - not sure what he is seeing that the market doesn't yet. Considering maintenance capex and interest, you don't have much left over to account for dilution. They do have more fund to fund their Mis play now. The picture will look much clear when the next trust is done and when the 500k acres is sold. I think I will switch my options to shares. This guy is willing to give up short term pps to grow the company. Applies DOR's metrics to ATPG is a good exercise. ATPGP is a buy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
txlaw Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 Hey Myth, So you're in Oz right now, yeah? Are you seeing anything interesting out there in terms of nat gas consumption and production? I know that they've got that big Gorgon field that is supposed to produce for 50 years or something, but I don't really hear much about Oz when it comes to nat gas. What are the Aussie's takes on LNG, a possible global nat gas market, and nat gas prices? -txlaw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
txlaw Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 Also, did you listen to the CC? Was Ward persuasive regarding the rationale for this transaction? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alertmeipp Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 I did, the one thing that stands out is tom may buy more oil assets if the price is right. He said the price was cheap in gom. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Myth465 Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 I have listened to the management prepared comments, havent hit the Q&A yet. I am starting to see Tom Ward as a value investor. He will close the funding gap with a sell of 500k acres and will focus on rolling up more assets in the gulf. This bodes well for CHK shareholders because it also shows that there are no more new plays to find on land. When you look at the SD map you have to ask yourself why they didnt sell the none core Gulf Coast assets. I didnt realize these were offshore, and on the call SD said they have been operating offshore for 5 years. With this acquisition these properties will be combined and that will be a core area along with the Miss, Permian, and Pinion / Legacy gas fields. With the other acquisitions they pretty much fired the Management teams of the acquired properties. Here they are trying to role in and retain some of the key offshore team. When he spoke of the acquired company buying assets for $100 million which had a PV10 value of $400 million you should see where he was going. Ward will continue to buy assets for cheap, and sell them via Trusts, JVs, and Direct Sale for fair price to expensive. He bought onshore and sold off bits and pieces for pretty good prices, and will continue to do it but now focusing on offshore. I think SD will be better for it, and shareholders will be rewarded eventually. --- Nat gas here sales for a more reasonable price and they are exporting it to Asia. I havent looked into it, but they have a ton of gas here and even have Nat Gas / LNG cars on the road. I dont like gas generally, and avoid companies which focus on it. I do own TAT which does alot of gas drilling in Turkey. Gas sales for $8 there. I think A global Nat Gas market will simple lower the price of gas globally. Europe probably has alot of shale gas, and as more is found the price will simple fall. The only hope for gas inmo is for us to switch more applications to it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Myth465 Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 Very Good article. I agree with his take. The Gulf assets should have been sold similar to the East Texas assets. I couldnt figure out why they held on to them, given that they were non core and SD needs the cash. Now it kind of makes sense. http://seekingalpha.com/article/339001-sandridge-ceo-tom-ward-has-an-interesting-reason-for-his-acquisition-of-dynamic-offshore-it-came-cheap My take away from the call was basically this. Sandridge actually has a small amount of exposure to the Gulf of Mexico. Last year Sandridge started shopping these assets in order to raise cash for its onshore programs. What Tom Ward and Sandridge found was that the offers for Sandridge's offshore properties were outrageously low. Generally, the offers Sandridge received were for 1.5 to 2 times cash flow. Sandridge politely declined these offers but upon further investigation found that other companies were actually selling Gulf of Mexico shelf assets for these kinds of prices. The lightbulb then obviously went off for Ward and Sandridge. Ward wants to make Sandridge as oil focused as possible, and also reduce leverage. The cheapest way to do so right now is apparently buying properties in the Gulf of Mexico. As Ward observed in the conference call, you can't buy production at two times cash flow onshore. http://www.gurufocus.com/news/160142/boone-pickens-outlook-for-oil-and-natural-gas-prices This is another good link. Didnt know Nat Gas was $15 in the mid east, wonder why. I thought they would be swimming in the stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alertmeipp Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 This should trade higher. But it will take some times, most will want to see how DOR operations will get integrated into SD's before committing more $ to SD. I added to my position and will close my 13 LEAPS (at a loss) to fund more commons. I think the acquisition remove the funding risk to move the onshore to a safe cash cow plays. But depends on how Ward play his cards, it may take longer. If they do couple more of DOR (debt increase 2b and share diluted 50%). They would generate cash to play down debt pretty fast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Myth465 Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 I bought more today. We have a conference tomorrow, and I think Ward has something locked up for the last 500k already. A few more catalysts kicking around. I will close up my 2013 leaps on a rebound and hold the 2014s I am buying... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AZ_Value Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 I added to my position and will close my 13 LEAPS (at a loss) to fund more commons. You just expressed my own position. I have 2013 LEAPS to close like you and will see what other entry points I'm given going forward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zorrofan Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 New presentation out today. Looks good.... http://investors.sandridgeenergy.com/phoenix.zhtml?c=196066&p=irol-presentations cheers Zorro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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