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BYDDF - BYD Company Limited


merkhet

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I added more recently. Here is a summarize of the thesis:

Pros:

1. I believe Electric cars will be adopted very quickly in china due to policy support. The government is very strongly supporting this industry in many fronts, including car price rebates, building charging stations, requiring local government leaders to be scored in green initiatives (that means tearing down buildings and convert them to gardens, as well as buying electric buses for the city). In a centralized communist country like China, things could happen in a couple of years which will take decades in US.

2. Chinese auto companies have competitive advantage compared to US auto companies, mainly because of cheaper labor cost and lack of unions. BYD has more than 100k R&D engineers.

3. BYD is getting a lot of city contracts selling electric buses and taxis. I think they sold 400 buses so far.

4. BYD's newest car, Qing, is on 4-6 months waiting list due to shortage of battery. The shortage has been resolved (they recently openned a new battery factory). There is a strong demand for the car.

5. Recently china issued new policy restricting people from getting new plates for new cars. In Beijing for example, a license plate could cost more than a car. I have friends who has two plates but one of the car is broken. She bought a new car in order to keep her plate.  But Electric cars have no plate restrictions.

6. BYD's stock fell suddenly recently, rumored due to a forced liquidation of margin calls. There was no fundamental change of the company. After that, Li Lu and BYD's CEO both bought shares.

 

Cons:

valuation is still very high. Trading about 100 P/E. They need to improve their margins.

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  • 2 weeks later...

I found this screen capture amusing (attached) -- I saw this bit of bragging when I went to the "lighting" link on the BYD website.

 

Hey, they are very modest about their achievements!

 

So modest in fact, that if you choose the "products" list on that page they are too embarrassed to list even a single one of their wonderful offerings!

 

Yes, that's right.  A website dedicated to telling you that they don't have any lighting products whatsoever and, put together, they've saved a total of 000,000,000,000.00 Kg of CO2.  What precision to take zero to that many place holders!

bydlighting.tiff

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  • 3 weeks later...

BYD selling Shenzhen BYD Electronic Components Co Ltd. to Holitech 

http://iis.aastocks.com/20150212/002120362-0.PDF

 

The Group intends to allocate more resources to develop the new energy vehicle business

 

The aggregate consideration for the Disposal is subject

to finalisation but in any event shall be not more than RMB2,300,000,000 (equivalent to

approximately HK$2,875,000,000), of which 75% of the Consideration shall be satisfied by

the allotment and issue, credited as fully paid, of the Consideration Shares at an issue price of

RMB9.64 per share by Holitech and 25% of the Consideration shall be satisfied in cash.

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great opportunity to buy.

It appears there was a lot of rumor/explanations about why the stock went down - one of the rumor was the chairman was arrested. The company did a conference call and clarified there was no fundamental changes to the company and the chairman is well. the management has no idea why the stock went down but suspect it's related to margin calls in the market.

 

up 20% in the last 3 days

 

 

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great opportunity to buy.

It appears there was a lot of rumor/explanations about why the stock went down - one of the rumor was the chairman was arrested. The company did a conference call and clarified there was no fundamental changes to the company and the chairman is well. the management has no idea why the stock went down but suspect it's related to margin calls in the market.

 

up 20% in the last 3 days

 

up 8% in HK today. so far YTD up ~58% if it helds up tonight :)

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Trading halted yesterday, anybody know why?

 

http://www.aastocks.com/en/stocks/news/aafn-news/NOW.665770/1

 

(BYD COMPANY (01211.HK)  0.000 (0.000%)  's trading has been halted from 9:00 this morning, pending the release of inside information. )

 

seems nobody know but apparently there is a leak as the stock was limited up the day before management decided to stop trading. So it could be good news. Wondering if the ADR will trade or not?

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Thanks for the info.

 

I looked up some chinese message boards. The speculation is that BYD is going to partner with a well-known IT firm to develop a smart car. And that firm might be a strategic investor of BYD. Again, this is pure speculation.

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Thanks for the info.

 

I looked up some chinese message boards. The speculation is that BYD is going to partner with a well-known IT firm to develop a smart car. And that firm might be a strategic investor of BYD. Again, this is pure speculation.

 

interesting. Apple, IBM or tencent?

But i think such news shouldnt halt the stock.

More likely share insurance or buying another company

 

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The two names that are going around are Baidu and Apple. Again, pure speculation.

 

Your point on share issuance is valid. I read something like Baidu or Apple will become a strategic investor and BYD will issue some shares so they have a stake in BYD. Does that make sense to you?

 

 

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The two names that are going around are Baidu and Apple. Again, pure speculation.

 

Your point on share issuance is valid. I read something like Baidu or Apple will become a strategic investor and BYD will issue some shares so they have a stake in BYD. Does that make sense to you?

 

If that's true that's great! Byd need the money to expand production for the new SUV and battery factory. Maybe even xiaomi too. Xiaomi may be interested in buying battery from byd

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The two names that are going around are Baidu and Apple. Again, pure speculation.

 

Your point on share issuance is valid. I read something like Baidu or Apple will become a strategic investor and BYD will issue some shares so they have a stake in BYD. Does that make sense to you?

 

If that's true that's great! Byd need the money to expand production for the new SUV and battery factory. Maybe even xiaomi too. Xiaomi may be interested in buying battery from byd

 

Can also be blackberry too

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Is there a way to figure out Li Lu's "Himalaya Capital" AUM?

 

On whalewisdom.com latest update on the fund it says:

Amount of client funds and securities by related persons: 986,400,000

 

Would this be AUM at that date?

 

---

(I'm trying to understand the percentage of AUM that Li Lu has invested in BYD)

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Thanks guys!

 

It would seem Himalaya Capital Investments now has around 2,4 Billion AUM.

That's a substantial increase in AUM since the ADV filing from date 07/25/2014 when AUM were 986,4 Millions.

 

Li Lu had this to say on AUM and performance fees in Graham & Doddsville spring 2013:

 

G&D: Is your fund open to new investors?

 

LL: The fund has been closed to new investors for nine years. However, we will open it up a bit this year. We have more opportunities than we have money around, but that’s rare. I usually don’t want to increase our size. My ambition has never been to run the largest fund. I never wanted to earn the most money out of a fund. I just wanted to have, by the time I finished my career, one of the best track records on a risk -adjusted basis. If I achieve that, I will feel very good about myself. That’s my goal, and therefore the compensation structure of the fund reflects that. Over time, I switched into the best compensation structure I knew in the industry, the original “Buffett partnership formula”. We don’t take any management fee. We provide a 6% return for free to our investors and then take 25% after that. I don’t invest anything outside of the fund. I put all of my investment capital into my funds. So it’s a true partnership. There are very few conflicts between the general partners and the limited partners.

 

That way we’re all in the same game together. I have zero incentive to take new money for the sake of taking new money because I don’t take things off the top. The minute that new money arrives, it begins to compound 6% on an annual basis against me, so I better be able to find something that is worthwhile and doing better. When I make money, I feel like I earn it, and when my investors make money, they earn it. It is just a better way to structure a business – you feel that everybody’s success is deserved. That ethos is what makes Charlie and Warren so special. They believe in fundamentally earned success. That’s why, despite their enormous success, nobody criticizes them very much. When you create the hundreds of billions in wealth for everybody while taking a salary of $100,000 per year for more than 40 years, it’s hard to criticize them.

-------------------------------

 

It would seem Li Lu found some serious oppurtunities as of late.

 

BYD has gone from being an appr. 34% position to accounting for something like 15% of AUM.

 

It obviously doesn't have to say anything about Li Lu's conviction in BYD – in fact he added a little in december at much lower prices – but it does make his results less correlated to what happens at BYD.

 

 

If someone has a different take on this I'd love to hear it!

 

 

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