JRH Posted May 6, 2013 Share Posted May 6, 2013 MBI is currently $10.18 and the 8/17/2012 $10 calls just traded at $2.47. Everyone is unable to time the B of A/MBI settlement and a covered call approach here, puts you in MBI at less than $8 with the chance to make roughly 20% in 103 days. What am I missing? I think you're missing the profound power of people's deprivation-avoidance and confirmation biases... Everyone can just TASTE that settlement perpetually about to happen, they don't want to miss out on the "certain" upside! ;) Of course, sooner or later, they could very possibly be right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JRH Posted May 6, 2013 Share Posted May 6, 2013 Good timing, something happening, trading paused? EDIT: chatter all over Twitter suggesting the deal with BofA is done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jay21 Posted May 6, 2013 Share Posted May 6, 2013 These things have been priced with little regard to the value of insurance for quite a while by now. To the best of my knowledge, MBIA is still paying claims. Your assumption on when they stop is pretty important. For Ambac, they are paying some claims and using a PIK surplus note to pay what they don't pay in cash. People are giving little value to the note. Other people's opinions may vary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ERICOPOLY Posted May 6, 2013 Share Posted May 6, 2013 Good timing, something happening, trading paused? This will be nice if true. I have 28% in MBI now. (added on Thursday, Friday, and another 10% this morning around $10.20) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dcollon Posted May 6, 2013 Share Posted May 6, 2013 Rumors that a $1.7 bil deal have been reached are out...just an fyi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
txlaw Posted May 6, 2013 Share Posted May 6, 2013 Rumors I see in my brokerage account feed: 12:08 PM ET Bank Of America, Bond Insurer MBIA Reach $1.7B in Settlement - SourcesDow Jones 12:08 PM ET BofA to Pay MBIA $1.6B Cash - SourcesDow Jones 12:08 PM ET BofA to Give MBIA $500M Credit Line - SourcesDow Jones 12:08 PM ET BofA to Take Stake in MBIA Holding Co of About 5% - Sources Dow Jones 12:08 PM ET MBIA tT Dismiss its Mortgage Putback Litigation Against BofA - SourcesDow Jones If BAC takes a stake in MBI holdco and gives it a credit line, that would be crazy . . . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
txlaw Posted May 6, 2013 Share Posted May 6, 2013 Good timing, something happening, trading paused? This will be nice if true. I have 28% in MBI now. (added on Thursday, Friday, and another 10% this morning around $10.20) Are you kidding me? What are you, psychic? ;D Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
enoch01 Posted May 6, 2013 Share Posted May 6, 2013 This is actually great news for BofA as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
willie2013 Posted May 6, 2013 Share Posted May 6, 2013 My biggest position also, a big THANKS, to the kind people here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ERICOPOLY Posted May 6, 2013 Share Posted May 6, 2013 Good timing, something happening, trading paused? This will be nice if true. I have 28% in MBI now. (added on Thursday, Friday, and another 10% this morning around $10.20) Are you kidding me? What are you, psychic? ;D No, I just listen to smart people like you. Here is what I did this morning in my wife's Roth IRA: mbi.tiff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valuecfa Posted May 6, 2013 Author Share Posted May 6, 2013 If the 1.7 billion rumor is true... This thing is going much higher! :D Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BargainValueHunter Posted May 6, 2013 Share Posted May 6, 2013 Up 43% Short squeeze in progress? FAAFX and FOCIX holders should be happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hyten1 Posted May 6, 2013 Share Posted May 6, 2013 damn eric you timing is just plain awesome :) man! for me i got some of the scraps, i sold a bunch of puts last week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
txlaw Posted May 6, 2013 Share Posted May 6, 2013 Good timing, something happening, trading paused? This will be nice if true. I have 28% in MBI now. (added on Thursday, Friday, and another 10% this morning around $10.20) Are you kidding me? What are you, psychic? ;D No, I just listen to smart people like you. Here is what I did this morning in my wife's Roth IRA: Well done! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
QLEAP Posted May 6, 2013 Share Posted May 6, 2013 Good timing, something happening, trading paused? This will be nice if true. I have 28% in MBI now. (added on Thursday, Friday, and another 10% this morning around $10.20) Are you kidding me? What are you, psychic? ;D No, I just listen to smart people like you. Here is what I did this morning in my wife's Roth IRA: lol thanks Eric. Happy for you :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
txlaw Posted May 6, 2013 Share Posted May 6, 2013 Up 43% Short squeeze in progress? FAAFX and FOCIX holders should be happy. Good lord. Must be the short squeeze. Problem with FAAFX holders is that Bruce B appears to have substantially reduced his position in the last couple of weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fareastwarriors Posted May 6, 2013 Share Posted May 6, 2013 Up 43% Short squeeze in progress? FAAFX and FOCIX holders should be happy. ;D maybe not as nice as some of u guys but i will take it! FAAFX for the win! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grenville Posted May 6, 2013 Share Posted May 6, 2013 where is the official release regarding the settlement? I won't believe it till I see it. Mbia halted again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muscleman Posted May 6, 2013 Share Posted May 6, 2013 Good timing, something happening, trading paused? This will be nice if true. I have 28% in MBI now. (added on Thursday, Friday, and another 10% this morning around $10.20) Wow. Your trading sense is amazing! Congrats! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hyten1 Posted May 6, 2013 Share Posted May 6, 2013 man insider trading is alive and well waiting for official release Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
merkhet Posted May 6, 2013 Share Posted May 6, 2013 Does anyone have concrete news? I've turned on CNBC (ugh) and have been refreshing business news sites like crazy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted May 6, 2013 Share Posted May 6, 2013 Wow.... Chou was right..... maaaannn I'm so glad I never got AIG instead of this. I got MBIA at $9.34 & it was my 5th largest position in my U.S. holdings. I honestly didn't think the settlement was likely to happen but here we are. Not a bad grab, not bad at all :) . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
txlaw Posted May 6, 2013 Share Posted May 6, 2013 WSJ now reporting MBIA settlement! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
onyx1 Posted May 6, 2013 Share Posted May 6, 2013 Gratz to all. Eric - I'm in awe! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
txlaw Posted May 6, 2013 Share Posted May 6, 2013 http://blogs.wsj.com/moneybeat/2013/05/06/mbia-shares-leap-42-on-settlement-with-bank-of-america/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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