fareastwarriors Posted June 11, 2013 Share Posted June 11, 2013 http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887323495604578539550282302628.html?mod=WSJ_hp_LEFTWhatsNewsCollection MBIA Loses Suit Over Crisis-Era Bond Deal Tilton's Patriarch Partners Didn't Breach Contract by Failing to Get Investment-Grade Rating, Judge Says. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valueorama Posted June 11, 2013 Share Posted June 11, 2013 http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887323495604578539550282302628.html?mod=WSJ_hp_LEFTWhatsNewsCollection MBIA Loses Suit Over Crisis-Era Bond Deal Tilton's Patriarch Partners Didn't Breach Contract by Failing to Get Investment-Grade Rating, Judge Says. This seems to about circa 2002 CDO well before the bubble. I am assuming the deals should not have seen much losses. As most real-estate would have been refinanced or sold by 2005 - 2007. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Liberty Posted June 14, 2013 Share Posted June 14, 2013 This thread has been awfully quiet lately. Is it because the regulars are all keeping quiet because they're buying more as the price drop? Or did something else change since the BAC settlement? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muscleman Posted June 15, 2013 Share Posted June 15, 2013 This thread has been awfully quiet lately. Is it because the regulars are all keeping quiet because they're buying more as the price drop? Or did something else change since the BAC settlement? Bruce has almost sold out according to his filings. :) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Liberty Posted June 15, 2013 Share Posted June 15, 2013 This thread has been awfully quiet lately. Is it because the regulars are all keeping quiet because they're buying more as the price drop? Or did something else change since the BAC settlement? Bruce has almost sold out according to his filings. :) I've seen that. But does it mean that everybody else should drop it too? :) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muscleman Posted June 15, 2013 Share Posted June 15, 2013 This thread has been awfully quiet lately. Is it because the regulars are all keeping quiet because they're buying more as the price drop? Or did something else change since the BAC settlement? Bruce has almost sold out according to his filings. :) I've seen that. But does it mean that everybody else should drop it too? :) It depends on what alternative investment are you looking at and which one has better risk/reward profile. Everyone is tracking different stocks so the answer varies. :) For me, I still think AGO is likely better than MBI. More undervalued, and more upside due to potential buybacks that the management is working on getting the cash from the subs to the parent. But for the downside, I am not as familiar as valuecfa. He likes MBI's risks better than AGO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BargainValueHunter Posted June 18, 2013 Share Posted June 18, 2013 http://mbibaclitigtion.blogspot.com/2013/06/an-open-letter-to-mbia-management-start.html First, from an investor's standpoint, it seems clear that the intrinsic valuation of National is being punished by its corporate association with MBIA Insurance. In my view, one can easily make the case that the standalone valuation of National is $16 per share, and I would assign a $2 per share valuation to MBIA Insurance (especially given that MBIA Insurance expects to receive approximately $4 per share by the end of the year in respect of its claims in the ResCap bankruptcy. Remember, the inter-company loan to National as been paid off; the entire ResCap recovery stays at MBIA Insurance). The reality is that the market is applying a negative valuation to MBIA Insurance, assigning about a $2 discount to National, because an investor in National must also be an investor in MBIA Insurance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valuecfa Posted June 20, 2013 Author Share Posted June 20, 2013 value, now that it's under $14, have you been adding? Not yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombgrt Posted June 24, 2013 Share Posted June 24, 2013 value, now that it's under $14, have you been adding? Barely a month later and at $12 again. Wow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bargainman Posted June 24, 2013 Share Posted June 24, 2013 value, now that it's under $14, have you been adding? Barely a month later and at $12 again. Wow! anyone buying? Leaps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muscleman Posted June 24, 2013 Share Posted June 24, 2013 value, now that it's under $14, have you been adding? Barely a month later and at $12 again. Wow! If you see my post right after the settlement, I totally predicted this! :) I said now after settlement, MBI looks like another AGO, with no more positive news flow, but only potential negative ones like Detroit bankruptcy, so I expected MBI to trade at least at the same discount to ABV just like AGO does. So that means MBI goes to $9. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fareastwarriors Posted July 9, 2013 Share Posted July 9, 2013 http://www.streetinsider.com/Insiders+Blog/MBIA,+Inc.+(MBI)+Loses+CDO+Case+vs.+Patriarch+Partners%3B+Sought+$100M+in+Damages/8406798.html MBIA, Inc. (MBI) Loses CDO Case vs. Patriarch Partners; Sought $100M in Damages Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rpadebet Posted July 10, 2013 Share Posted July 10, 2013 Why don't they just spin this thing off? National_Investor_Presentation.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
txlaw Posted July 18, 2013 Share Posted July 18, 2013 Detroit to file BK as soon as Friday: http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2013/07/18/detroit-prepares-bankruptcy-filing-friday/2552819/ National's exposure: http://www.businesswire.com/news/nationalpfg/20130305006625/en It will be interesting to see how the market reacts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rpadebet Posted July 19, 2013 Share Posted July 19, 2013 Shouldn't this be a positive for Muni insurers like National, as it clearly shows need for Bond insurance even in this low rate environment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vpagano Posted July 19, 2013 Share Posted July 19, 2013 The new post by Christian makes that point, I agree: http://mbibaclitigtion.blogspot.com/2013/07/detroit-and-pandoras-box.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
txlaw Posted August 7, 2013 Share Posted August 7, 2013 http://investor.mbia.com/file.aspx?IID=103405&FID=18810094 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muscleman Posted August 8, 2013 Share Posted August 8, 2013 http://investor.mbia.com/file.aspx?IID=103405&FID=18810094 No material breaking news. The only thing that surprises me is why Warburg Pincus started selling now. I believe their cost is like $20 a share. http://google.brand.edgar-online.com/displayfilinginfo.aspx?FilingID=9442545-1264-16713&type=sect&TabIndex=2&companyid=7168&ppu=%252fdefault.aspx%253fsym%253dMBI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombgrt Posted August 8, 2013 Share Posted August 8, 2013 value, now that it's under $14, have you been adding? Barely a month later and at $12 again. Wow! If you see my post right after the settlement, I totally predicted this! :) I said now after settlement, MBI looks like another AGO, with no more positive news flow, but only potential negative ones like Detroit bankruptcy, so I expected MBI to trade at least at the same discount to ABV just like AGO does. So that means MBI goes to $9. I'm still waiting on your prediction to come true! :( Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ERICOPOLY Posted August 8, 2013 Share Posted August 8, 2013 http://investor.mbia.com/file.aspx?IID=103405&FID=18810094 No material breaking news. The only thing that surprises me is why Warburg Pincus started selling now. I believe their cost is like $20 a share. http://google.brand.edgar-online.com/displayfilinginfo.aspx?FilingID=9442545-1264-16713&type=sect&TabIndex=2&companyid=7168&ppu=%252fdefault.aspx%253fsym%253dMBI I believe I had a better experience than them :D Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muscleman Posted August 8, 2013 Share Posted August 8, 2013 value, now that it's under $14, have you been adding? Barely a month later and at $12 again. Wow! If you see my post right after the settlement, I totally predicted this! :) I said now after settlement, MBI looks like another AGO, with no more positive news flow, but only potential negative ones like Detroit bankruptcy, so I expected MBI to trade at least at the same discount to ABV just like AGO does. So that means MBI goes to $9. I'm still waiting on your prediction to come true! :( Well.. I have changed my view and bought back the shares. When Detroit filed bankruptcy but MBI shares didn't go down much, and GO bonds in the muni market still trades firmly, I think my primary concern for the muni market is overblown and it seems unlikely that there will be a massive muni collapse. Let's see.... I could be wrong again. ;) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muscleman Posted August 8, 2013 Share Posted August 8, 2013 http://investor.mbia.com/file.aspx?IID=103405&FID=18810094 No material breaking news. The only thing that surprises me is why Warburg Pincus started selling now. I believe their cost is like $20 a share. http://google.brand.edgar-online.com/displayfilinginfo.aspx?FilingID=9442545-1264-16713&type=sect&TabIndex=2&companyid=7168&ppu=%252fdefault.aspx%253fsym%253dMBI I believe I had a better experience than them :D I am reading the latest CC transcript, and I saw this: "That NOL is approximately $2.8 billion at midyear 2013. It's more than double the amount that we reported in the 2012 10-K, because certain commutations achieved in the first six months of 2013 were policies whose losses had previously not been recognized – or not been recognized, not been deducted for tax purposes." I am a bit confused about this because I do not see this item from the 10-Q balance sheet. Shouldn't this be an item on the asset portion of the balance sheet? If not, then this seems to be a pretty big hidden asset. http://www.morningstar.com/earnings/55276030-mbia-inc-q2-2013.aspx?pindex=7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SFValue Posted August 8, 2013 Share Posted August 8, 2013 http://investor.mbia.com/file.aspx?IID=103405&FID=18810094 No material breaking news. The only thing that surprises me is why Warburg Pincus started selling now. I believe their cost is like $20 a share. http://google.brand.edgar-online.com/displayfilinginfo.aspx?FilingID=9442545-1264-16713&type=sect&TabIndex=2&companyid=7168&ppu=%252fdefault.aspx%253fsym%253dMBI I believe I had a better experience than them :D eric are you out of MBI, if i may ask... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muscleman Posted August 8, 2013 Share Posted August 8, 2013 http://investor.mbia.com/file.aspx?IID=103405&FID=18810094 No material breaking news. The only thing that surprises me is why Warburg Pincus started selling now. I believe their cost is like $20 a share. http://google.brand.edgar-online.com/displayfilinginfo.aspx?FilingID=9442545-1264-16713&type=sect&TabIndex=2&companyid=7168&ppu=%252fdefault.aspx%253fsym%253dMBI I believe I had a better experience than them :D eric are you out of MBI, if i may ask... Look like our champ Eric has many followers! ;D Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SFValue Posted August 8, 2013 Share Posted August 8, 2013 http://investor.mbia.com/file.aspx?IID=103405&FID=18810094 No material breaking news. The only thing that surprises me is why Warburg Pincus started selling now. I believe their cost is like $20 a share. http://google.brand.edgar-online.com/displayfilinginfo.aspx?FilingID=9442545-1264-16713&type=sect&TabIndex=2&companyid=7168&ppu=%252fdefault.aspx%253fsym%253dMBI I believe I had a better experience than them :D eric are you out of MBI, if i may ask... Look like our champ Eric has many followers! ;D my champ is BB Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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