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MBI - MBIA Inc.


valuecfa

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http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887323495604578539550282302628.html?mod=WSJ_hp_LEFTWhatsNewsCollection

 

 

MBIA Loses Suit Over Crisis-Era Bond Deal

 

 

Tilton's Patriarch Partners Didn't Breach Contract by Failing to Get Investment-Grade Rating, Judge Says.

 

This seems to about circa 2002 CDO well before the bubble. I am assuming the deals should not have seen much losses. As most real-estate would have been refinanced or sold by 2005 - 2007.

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This thread has been awfully quiet lately. Is it because the regulars are all keeping quiet because they're buying more as the price drop? Or did something else change since the BAC settlement?

 

Bruce has almost sold out according to his filings. :)

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This thread has been awfully quiet lately. Is it because the regulars are all keeping quiet because they're buying more as the price drop? Or did something else change since the BAC settlement?

 

Bruce has almost sold out according to his filings. :)

 

I've seen that. But does it mean that everybody else should drop it too? :)

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This thread has been awfully quiet lately. Is it because the regulars are all keeping quiet because they're buying more as the price drop? Or did something else change since the BAC settlement?

 

Bruce has almost sold out according to his filings. :)

 

I've seen that. But does it mean that everybody else should drop it too? :)

 

It depends on what alternative investment are you looking at and which one has better risk/reward profile. Everyone is tracking different stocks so the answer varies. :)

For me, I still think AGO is likely better than MBI. More undervalued, and more upside due to potential buybacks that the management is working on getting the cash from the subs to the parent. But for the downside, I am not as familiar as valuecfa. He likes MBI's risks better than AGO.

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http://mbibaclitigtion.blogspot.com/2013/06/an-open-letter-to-mbia-management-start.html

 

First, from an investor's standpoint, it seems clear that the intrinsic valuation of National is being punished by its corporate association with MBIA Insurance.  In my view, one can easily make the case that the standalone valuation of National is $16 per share, and I would assign a $2 per share valuation to MBIA Insurance (especially given that MBIA Insurance expects to receive approximately $4 per share by the end of the year in respect of its claims in the ResCap bankruptcy.  Remember, the inter-company loan to National as been paid off; the entire ResCap recovery stays at MBIA Insurance).

 

The reality is that the market is applying a negative valuation to MBIA Insurance, assigning about a $2 discount to National, because an investor in National must also be an investor in MBIA Insurance.

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value, now that it's under $14, have you been adding?

 

Barely a month later and at $12 again. Wow!

 

If you see my post right after the settlement, I totally predicted this! :) I said now after settlement, MBI looks like another AGO, with no more positive news flow, but only potential negative ones like Detroit bankruptcy, so I expected MBI to trade at least at the same discount to ABV just like AGO does. So that means MBI goes to $9.

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  • 2 weeks later...
  • 3 weeks later...

 

No material breaking news.

The only thing that surprises me is why Warburg Pincus started selling now. I believe their cost is like $20 a share.

 

 

http://google.brand.edgar-online.com/displayfilinginfo.aspx?FilingID=9442545-1264-16713&type=sect&TabIndex=2&companyid=7168&ppu=%252fdefault.aspx%253fsym%253dMBI

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value, now that it's under $14, have you been adding?

 

Barely a month later and at $12 again. Wow!

 

If you see my post right after the settlement, I totally predicted this! :) I said now after settlement, MBI looks like another AGO, with no more positive news flow, but only potential negative ones like Detroit bankruptcy, so I expected MBI to trade at least at the same discount to ABV just like AGO does. So that means MBI goes to $9.

 

I'm still waiting on your prediction to come true! :(

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No material breaking news.

The only thing that surprises me is why Warburg Pincus started selling now. I believe their cost is like $20 a share.

 

 

http://google.brand.edgar-online.com/displayfilinginfo.aspx?FilingID=9442545-1264-16713&type=sect&TabIndex=2&companyid=7168&ppu=%252fdefault.aspx%253fsym%253dMBI

 

I believe I had a better experience than them  :D

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value, now that it's under $14, have you been adding?

 

Barely a month later and at $12 again. Wow!

 

If you see my post right after the settlement, I totally predicted this! :) I said now after settlement, MBI looks like another AGO, with no more positive news flow, but only potential negative ones like Detroit bankruptcy, so I expected MBI to trade at least at the same discount to ABV just like AGO does. So that means MBI goes to $9.

 

I'm still waiting on your prediction to come true! :(

 

Well.. I have changed my view and bought back the shares. When Detroit filed bankruptcy but MBI shares didn't go down much, and GO bonds in the muni market still trades firmly, I think my primary concern for  the muni market is overblown and it seems unlikely that there will be a massive muni collapse.

Let's see.... I could be wrong again. ;)

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No material breaking news.

The only thing that surprises me is why Warburg Pincus started selling now. I believe their cost is like $20 a share.

 

 

http://google.brand.edgar-online.com/displayfilinginfo.aspx?FilingID=9442545-1264-16713&type=sect&TabIndex=2&companyid=7168&ppu=%252fdefault.aspx%253fsym%253dMBI

 

I believe I had a better experience than them  :D

 

I am reading the latest CC transcript, and I saw this:

"That NOL is approximately $2.8 billion at midyear 2013. It's more than double the amount that we reported in the 2012 10-K, because certain commutations achieved in the first six months of 2013 were policies whose losses had previously not been recognized – or not been recognized, not been deducted for tax purposes."

 

I am a bit confused about this because I do not see this item from the 10-Q balance sheet. Shouldn't this be an item on the asset portion of the balance sheet? If not, then this seems to be a pretty big hidden asset.

http://www.morningstar.com/earnings/55276030-mbia-inc-q2-2013.aspx?pindex=7

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No material breaking news.

The only thing that surprises me is why Warburg Pincus started selling now. I believe their cost is like $20 a share.

 

 

http://google.brand.edgar-online.com/displayfilinginfo.aspx?FilingID=9442545-1264-16713&type=sect&TabIndex=2&companyid=7168&ppu=%252fdefault.aspx%253fsym%253dMBI

 

I believe I had a better experience than them  :D

 

eric are you out of MBI, if i may ask...

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No material breaking news.

The only thing that surprises me is why Warburg Pincus started selling now. I believe their cost is like $20 a share.

 

 

http://google.brand.edgar-online.com/displayfilinginfo.aspx?FilingID=9442545-1264-16713&type=sect&TabIndex=2&companyid=7168&ppu=%252fdefault.aspx%253fsym%253dMBI

 

I believe I had a better experience than them  :D

 

eric are you out of MBI, if i may ask...

 

Look like our champ Eric has many followers! ;D

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No material breaking news.

The only thing that surprises me is why Warburg Pincus started selling now. I believe their cost is like $20 a share.

 

 

http://google.brand.edgar-online.com/displayfilinginfo.aspx?FilingID=9442545-1264-16713&type=sect&TabIndex=2&companyid=7168&ppu=%252fdefault.aspx%253fsym%253dMBI

 

I believe I had a better experience than them  :D

 

eric are you out of MBI, if i may ask...

 

Look like our champ Eric has many followers! ;D

 

my champ is BB

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