txlaw Posted November 10, 2012 Share Posted November 10, 2012 Any thoughts on why it's taking so long for the Article 78 summary judgment ruling? Not really, other than that the courts are probably trying to nudge the parties to a settlement. One thing about litigation is that it always costs more, takes longer and involves more pain than expected. Trying to discern what the courts will do is like reading animal entrails to divine the future. That's the Munger reference I was trying to look for the other day! Nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mpauls Posted November 10, 2012 Share Posted November 10, 2012 Kapnick probably does not want to rule on this. It will set precedent that does not exist and few want. I think it will be settled before the turn of the year or resolved by trial within the first 1-3 months of 2013. If settled she doesn't have to do anything. If they go to trial, she can rule thereafter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grenville Posted November 10, 2012 Share Posted November 10, 2012 Kapnick probably does not want to rule on this. It will set precedent that does not exist and few want. I think it will be settled before the turn of the year or resolved by trial within the first 1-3 months of 2013. If settled she doesn't have to do anything. If they go to trial, she can rule thereafter. Thnks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mcristo Posted November 13, 2012 Share Posted November 13, 2012 For those of you following the Assured Guaranty - Flagstar trial, closing arguments were yesterday and Rakoff is expecting to issue a ruling by the end of January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grenville Posted November 13, 2012 Share Posted November 13, 2012 Bank of America Announces Commencement of Cash Tender Offer for MBIA Notes http://newsroom.bankofamerica.com/press-release/corporate-and-financial-news/bank-america-announces-commencement-cash-tender-offer-mbi Getting interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cardboard Posted November 13, 2012 Share Posted November 13, 2012 Well, I have never seen a situation like this. There are $329 million of these bonds issued by MBIA and they are callable at any time at $100 or par. However in this case, it is another entity or Bank of America offering to repay the debt holders instead of MBIA. In other words, if this goes through, MBIA will be forgiven $329 million in debt, yet the stock is collapsing. This move by BAC will likely prevent the consent solicitation started by MBIA which was likely tried to get more concession out of BAC. Judge Kapnick and Bransteen need to do their job and hammer the criminals at Countrywide and BAC. Cardboard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kraven Posted November 13, 2012 Share Posted November 13, 2012 Well, I have never seen a situation like this. There are $329 million of these bonds issued by MBIA and they are callable at any time at $100 or par. However in this case, it is another entity or Bank of America offering to repay the debt holders instead of MBIA. In other words, if this goes through, MBIA will be forgiven $329 million in debt, yet the stock is collapsing. This move by BAC will likely prevent the consent solicitation started by MBIA which was likely tried to get more concession out of BAC. Judge Kapnick and Bransteen need to do their job and hammer the criminals at Countrywide and BAC. Cardboard The debt will still be outstanding. The current debt holders will be paid, but the "new" debt holder will be BAC. MBIA will still owe them on the bonds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cardboard Posted November 13, 2012 Share Posted November 13, 2012 Thanks, makes more sense. Cardboard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunrider Posted November 13, 2012 Share Posted November 13, 2012 ... and down it goes - any views on the strategic significance of BAC getting to a point that MBI cannot get consent? Isn't this at some point becoming a deliberate attempt to bankrupt MBI and thus perhaps criminal behaviour? C. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Telluride Posted November 13, 2012 Share Posted November 13, 2012 Why would anyone vote for MBIA's solicitation instead of tendering to BAC at par? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grenville Posted November 13, 2012 Share Posted November 13, 2012 I posted this in the other thread. Interesting stuff. It looks like MBIA has gotten a lockup on the consent solicitation for 25.4% of the 1990 Indenture and 3.5% of the notes outstanding under the 2004 Indenture. The 2004 Indenture are the notes BAC is trying to buy up. There is a notional amount of 329 (350mln original) of them. Also I think the lock up matches what Bruce Berkowitz has at Fairholme. In his annual report for 2011 he has about 11.58mln of the 2034 5.7% (2004 Notes). I guess it will come down to who owns the notes and who owns the common. If you own both you probably have more upside with MBIA and if you just own the notes then you'd rather give up to BAC. I put this together real quick after a quick scan so I would appreciate any other thoughts or corrections. I want this thing between BAC and MBIA settled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kraven Posted November 13, 2012 Share Posted November 13, 2012 ... and down it goes - any views on the strategic significance of BAC getting to a point that MBI cannot get consent? Isn't this at some point becoming a deliberate attempt to bankrupt MBI and thus perhaps criminal behaviour? C. They aren't trying to bankrupt them. They are simply blocking the consent and then holding the debt. This is an attempt to try and block any kind of funny bankruptcy move. They don't want MBIA bankrupt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cardboard Posted November 13, 2012 Share Posted November 13, 2012 This is not the only thing that looks criminal. A few weeks ago, someone bought massive blocks of January $5 strike puts on MBI. The stocks was above $10 and very few could comprehend what was this about. These things have doubled in value today alone. Insider trading may even be involved here. Cardboard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunrider Posted November 13, 2012 Share Posted November 13, 2012 Well yes they may not be interested in a bankcrupt MBIA but perhaps they are interested in forcing an unreasonably low settlement offer (perhaps substantially below what MBIA has already booked ...)? If that were the case, I wonder if the stock would implode further. Anyway - anyone here buying on the way down at these prices? I pulled the trigger a little earlier but now wish I had waited! doh! C. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Telluride Posted November 13, 2012 Share Posted November 13, 2012 ... and down it goes - any views on the strategic significance of BAC getting to a point that MBI cannot get consent? Isn't this at some point becoming a deliberate attempt to bankrupt MBI and thus perhaps criminal behaviour? C. Good question. Could also pose the fraudulent conveyance question on the split if the Corp were really handed over to the regualtors. I'm not sure I know what is criminal anymore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mpauls Posted November 13, 2012 Share Posted November 13, 2012 I'm buying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JRH Posted November 13, 2012 Share Posted November 13, 2012 Well yes they may not be interested in a bankcrupt MBIA but perhaps they are interested in forcing an unreasonably low settlement offer (perhaps substantially below what MBIA has already booked ...)? If that were the case, I wonder if the stock would implode further. Anyway - anyone here buying on the way down at these prices? I pulled the trigger a little earlier but now wish I had waited! doh! C. Ditto! Averaging down... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
txlaw Posted November 13, 2012 Share Posted November 13, 2012 So would going long the relevant MBI bonds and shorting MBI common be called a "pair trade"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fareastwarriors Posted November 14, 2012 Share Posted November 14, 2012 MBIA's response is a fine read. http://www.mbia.com/MBIA-Inc-Statement2.pdf I hope there is a movie made out of this feud one day. It's picture perfect! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cardboard Posted November 14, 2012 Share Posted November 14, 2012 "...would disadvantage other policyholders..." IMO, this is the key defense against this intrusion by BAC. This will not fly in the eyes of insurance regulators. Their job is to ensure that an insurer can honor its claims. BAC is now blocking a mechanism that MBI could, could use in case of distress to help pay its claims. Cardboard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hyten1 Posted November 14, 2012 Share Posted November 14, 2012 http://www.valueplays.net/2012/11/13/mbias-very-weak-response-to-bank-of-america/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ERICOPOLY Posted November 14, 2012 Share Posted November 14, 2012 "...would disadvantage other policyholders..." Cardboard I thought the split with National did that already... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alertmeipp Posted November 14, 2012 Share Posted November 14, 2012 so i own this one too (lucky *so far, a small position). more blood in the bloodbath. :o Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rkbabang Posted November 14, 2012 Share Posted November 14, 2012 so i own this one too (lucky *so far, a small position). more blood in the bloodbath. :o Could you let us all know what else you own that hasn't crashed and burned yet so we can sell (or even short) in advance? Thanks. You really aren't having a good year. :( Good thing it's almost over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alertmeipp Posted November 14, 2012 Share Posted November 14, 2012 so i own this one too (lucky *so far, a small position). more blood in the bloodbath. :o Could you let us all know what else you own that hasn't crashed and burned yet so we can sell (or even short) in advance? Thanks. You really aren't having a good year. :( Good thing it's almost over. I can't tell you all, but I do own AIG and BAC :) Selling some BAC recently to raise cash. So u guys should be safe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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