valuecfa Posted November 28, 2012 Author Share Posted November 28, 2012 MBIAs structure carries "complexity discount" http://www.thestreet.com/story/11777277/1/mbia-still-carries-complexity-discount-street-whispers.html?puc=yahoo&cm_ven=YAHOO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShahKhezri Posted November 30, 2012 Share Posted November 30, 2012 MBIA Inc.'s 5-year CDS are within breathing distance to their September low levels, dropping over 400bps in the past week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valuecfa Posted November 30, 2012 Author Share Posted November 30, 2012 MBIA Inc.'s 5-year CDS are within breathing distance to their September low levels, dropping over 400bps in the past week. Can't believe it's still 16 upfront. I would expect it to continue to decline over the near term. I'm curious to see what new rating Mbia Inc will achieve, before there is any litigation matters settled. As an aside, I remember when i first bought into the equity that the CDS were implying ~ a 93% implied probability of default in the next 5 years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muscleman Posted November 30, 2012 Share Posted November 30, 2012 MBIA Inc.'s 5-year CDS are within breathing distance to their September low levels, dropping over 400bps in the past week. Could you tell me where to check those CDS prices? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShahKhezri Posted November 30, 2012 Share Posted November 30, 2012 I got it off the Bloomberg terminal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mpauls Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 Date* Name/Title Shares Transaction Value 10/01/2012 David A. Coulter Independent Director 3,829 Acquisition 39,247 10/01/2012 Kewsong Lee Independent Director 2,317 Acquisition 23,749 07/02/2012 Kewsong Lee Independent Director 2,085 Acquisition 22,747 07/02/2012 David A. Coulter Independent Director 3,414 Acquisition 37,246 06/19/2012 Maryann Bruce Independent Director 9,892 Acquisition 100,008 05/01/2012 Kewsong Lee Independent Director 9,570 Acquisition 100,006 05/01/2012 David A. Coulter Independent Director 9,570 Acquisition 100,006 05/01/2012 Richard C. Vaughan Independent Director 9,570 Acquisition 100,006 05/01/2012 Steven Gilbert Independent Director 9,570 Acquisition 100,006 05/01/2012 Theodore E. Shasta Independent Director 9,570 Acquisition 100,006 05/01/2012 Daniel P. Kearney Chairman of the Board 9,570 Acquisition 100,006 05/01/2012 Claire L. Gaudiani Independent Director 15,721 Exercise 0 05/01/2012 Charles R. Rinehart Independent Director 9,570 Acquisition 100,006 04/02/2012 Kewsong Lee Independent Director 2,552 Acquisition 25,749 04/02/2012 David A. Coulter Independent Director 4,385 Acquisition 44,244 03/02/2012 Douglas C. Hamilton Assistant Vice President and Controller 11,965 Acquisition 122,401 03/02/2012 Anthony McKiernan Vice President and Chief Portfolio Officer; Chief Risk Officer - MBIA Corp. 97,752 Acquisition 1,000,002 01/03/2012 David A. Coulter Independent Director 3,371 Acquisition 42,238 01/03/2012 Kewsong Lee Independent Director 1,895 Acquisition 23,744 01/03/2012 Daniel P. Kearney Chairman of the Board 638 Acquisition 7,994 10/03/2011 Kewsong Lee Independent Director 3,618 Acquisition 24,747 10/03/2011 David A. Coulter Independent Director 6,030 Acquisition 41,245 10/03/2011 Daniel P. Kearney Chairman of the Board 9,393 Acquisition 64,248 09/02/2011 Joseph W. Brown Chief Executive Officer and Director 100,000 Buy at $7.60 per share. 760,000 07/01/2011 David A. Coulter Independent Director 4,217 Acquisition 38,248 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mpauls Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 Name/Title Total Shares Held TTM Change % Shares Outstanding % Market Value All Key Insiders 6,148,516 7.17% 3.20% 54,967,733 Joseph W. Brown Chief Executive Officer and Director 4,378,446 4.79 2.26% 39,143,307 William C. Fallon President and Chief Operating Officer 405,281 12.49 0.21% 3,623,212 C. Edward Chaplin President, Chief Financial Officer and Chief Administrative Officer 399,221 6.68 0.21% 3,569,035 Anthony Mckiernan Vice President and Chief Portfolio Officer; Chief Risk Officer - MBIA Corp. 162,210 0.00 0.08% 1,450,157 David A. Coulter Independent Director 154,963 18.84 0.08% 1,385,369 Kewsong Lee Independent Director 121,151 17.93 0.06% 1,083,089 Daniel P. Kearney Chairman of the Board 91,337 11.70 0.05% 816,552 Ram D. Wertheim Executive Vice President, Chief Legal Officer and Secretary 76,246 17.00 0.04% 681,639 Douglas C. Hamilton Assistant Vice President and Controller 72,408 26.06 0.04% 647,327 Charles R. Rinehart Independent Director 70,989 15.58 0.04% 634,641 Claire L. Gaudiani Independent Director 59,660 35.78 0.03% 533,360 Richard C. Vaughan Independent Director 52,070 22.52 0.03% 465,505 Theodore E. Shasta Independent Director 50,214 23.55 0.03% 448,913 Steven Gilbert Independent Director 30,470 45.79 0.02% 272,401 Clifford D. Corso Executive Vice President and Chief Investment Officer 13,958 -34.89 0.01% 124,784 Maryann Bruce Independent Director 9,892 0.00 0.01% 88,434 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gfp Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 Not sure why you are posting these lists, but they are not primarily open market purchases if that is what you are getting at. Your lists are almost entirely stock awards, a form of compensation. The only true insider purchases on that list are in September 2011 and May 2011. There were also legitimate purchases in November 2010 and August 2010. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Dazel Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 Are they in court today? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
west Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 Are they in court today? If I remember right, today for oral arguments on primary liability, and again on the 12th for secondary liability. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShahKhezri Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 Are they in court today? If I remember right, today for oral arguments on primary liability, and again on the 12th for secondary liability. This got pushed to January 9-10. Successor Liability still scheduled for 12-13 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsad Posted December 6, 2012 Share Posted December 6, 2012 BAC waives MBIA bond purchase conditions. Cheers! http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/12/06/bankofamerica-mbia-idUSL1E8N609820121206?feedType=RSS&feedName=marketsNews&rpc=43 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Dazel Posted December 6, 2012 Share Posted December 6, 2012 We made our first purchases yesterday..now that Bank of America has market confidence we think they will settle. Dazel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kraven Posted December 6, 2012 Share Posted December 6, 2012 We made our first purchases yesterday..now that Bank of America has market confidence we think they will settle. Dazel. Why do you think the two are correlated? I'm not saying you're wrong, I have no idea. It isn't something thought that would necessarily occur to me. One could have argued the opposite, that they would have been more willing to settle when they were hated. Sort of the "big bath" equivalent. Put it behind them. Just curious as to your thoughts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Dazel Posted December 6, 2012 Share Posted December 6, 2012 We were a large BAC shareholder...so we know what we felt like on the other side of this situation. Mbia's case has great significance to BAC...not mbia...the case against them sets a precedent. Mbia is small potatoes to BAC...it the case outcome that matters...that is what scares BAC investors. Why not get that behind you? Because Mbia wants a lot of cash and they have been kicked around like a sardine can to bend on that price. They have not. Mr Brown has earned my respect for hanging in...I thought he was done 2 weeks ago...with the BAC bond purchases...yet he fought his way through! It made me think. There are 2 reasons you stay around on an all in bet in poker. You are either bluffing or you have a royal flush... After this last battle I think Brown has a royal flush. Dazel Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kraven Posted December 6, 2012 Share Posted December 6, 2012 We were a large BAC shareholder...so we know what we felt like on the other side of this situation. Mbia's case has great significance to BAC...not mbia...the case against them sets a precedent. Mbia is small potatoes to BAC...it the case outcome that matters...that is what scares BAC investors. Why not get that behind you? Because Mbia wants a lot of cash and they have been kicked around like a sardine can to bend on that price. They have not. Mr Brown has earned my respect for hanging in...I thought he was done 2 weeks ago...with the BAC bond purchases...yet he fought his way through! It made me think. There are 2 reasons you stay around on an all in bet in poker. You are either bluffing or you have a royal flush... After this last battle I think Brown has a royal flush. Dazel I think I agree with your points at a 10,000 foot level. However, I am not sure that these points weren't really the same a day ago, a week ago, a month ago, a year ago. I have said numerous times on this board that it puzzled me why BAC didn't want to put this behind them. That I thought either they were getting bad advice or not following good advice. It makes no sense to me why they wouldn't want to put this behind them. If it costs a few extra bucks, so be it. Putting all this negativity behind them will create a rise in the stock price in excess of whatever "extra" it costs them. I think when you say the case doesn't have great significance to MBIA you are talking about in terms of precedential value, no? Obviously the case is supremely important to them, but it's a matter of cash, that's it. BAC doesn't care at some level about the cash, they care about the precedent. Good analogy about Brown staying in. I guess a third option is you're stupid! But no, he isn't that. Hard to see a bluff which means the entire company, so perhaps the royal flush it is. But as noted previously one never knows what can happen in litigation, so it's impossible to have a true royal flush unless you have the equivalent of the killer on film saying "yeah, I killed him and I enjoyed it. So what?" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Dazel Posted December 6, 2012 Share Posted December 6, 2012 Clarify...BAC case against mbia matters....mbia does not matter to BAC. This everything to Mbia! That is why I am so impressed with Brown's courage to fight. Why is he fighting so hard? The difference between now and last year and the year before is huge. This will eventually hit a court...and a precedent will be set. BAC shareholders do not want to see it happen...I know because I was one... The problem is...if BAC pays what Brown wants than the market is going to say...that's a lot! We may have to up our loss exposure numbers...that news would have been a huge hit to confidence to BAC when it was trading below $7 four or 5 months ago...today above $10 with momentum and confidence...it easier to say...let's put this behind us...we paid a little more than we should have but we will save it in legal fees...Stock prices matter to confidence and a bank runs on the confidence of it's depositors and clients...that is why today is different than yesterday. Dazel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valuecfa Posted December 6, 2012 Author Share Posted December 6, 2012 It was certainly not my first purchase, but I added more as well yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
biaggio Posted December 6, 2012 Share Posted December 6, 2012 Interesting. MBIA market cap only $1.6 billion (vs what BAC may be offering). Could BAC be buying common as well? Also is Brown not the same guy featured in Ackman's book "Confidence Game". I could very well be mistaken though- if its the same guy- I don t doubt that he is very smart- book though protrays one who is stubborn, plays cards to end, not flexible in thinking that the guy on the other side of the deal may be right (and played a little dirty as well). Book is very good by the way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MYDemaray Posted December 6, 2012 Share Posted December 6, 2012 Also is Brown not the same guy featured in Ackman's book "Confidence Game".... Same guy. Also, how does everyone here get comfortable with the fact that they've pre-booked the litigation recoveries on their balance sheet? That strikes me as highly aggressive...and also a potential source of anchoring in these negotiations with BAC. If they come up short, they will have to impair that value. That will make them look bad. Maybe it's a way of burning their ships beforehand and pre-committing themselves to a negotiating position. I, personally, can't get comfort around that issue, and after reading Confidence Game there is no way I'd invest with these guys....if nothing more than the extraordinary display of self-delusion during the last meltdown and/or dishonesty. I know that's not what an MBIA board wants to hear, but there you have it... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PlanMaestro Posted December 6, 2012 Share Posted December 6, 2012 He is also the former CEO and president of Fireman's Fund Insurance and chairman of Talegen. Before joining MBIA as chief executive this year, Jay Brown was chairman of Talegen Holdings, Inc., formerly the insurance operations of Xerox Corporation, from 1992 to the completion of its divestiture in 1998. Previously, he rose through the ranks of Fireman's Fund Insurance Companies over 17 years to become chief executive. Mr. Brown has served as a director of MBIA since 1986, except for a short period in 1989-90. And there is some history here. For example, in 1994 [bruce Berkowitz] was criticized for investing all his clients’ money in two stocks only — Berkshire Hathaway and the Fireman’s Fund Insurance Co. And more history here. http://www.cornerofberkshireandfairfax.ca/forum/investment-ideas/mbi-mbia-inc/msg49078/?topicseen#msg49078 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valuecfa Posted December 6, 2012 Author Share Posted December 6, 2012 Also is Brown not the same guy featured in Ackman's book "Confidence Game".... Same guy. Also, how does everyone here get comfortable with the fact that they've pre-booked the litigation recoveries on their balance sheet? That strikes me as highly aggressive...and also a potential source of anchoring in these negotiations with BAC. If they come up short, they will have to impair that value. That will make them look bad. Maybe it's a way of burning their ships beforehand and pre-committing themselves to a negotiating position. I, personally, can't get comfort around that issue, and after reading Confidence Game there is no way I'd invest with these guys....if nothing more than the extraordinary display of self-delusion during the last meltdown and/or dishonesty. I know that's not what an MBIA board wants to hear, but there you have it... The recoveries are prebooked to structured finance unit, not the rest of the company. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MYDemaray Posted December 6, 2012 Share Posted December 6, 2012 The recoveries are prebooked to structured finance unit, not the rest of the company. Do you not see that as aggressive? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
txlaw Posted December 6, 2012 Share Posted December 6, 2012 Also is Brown not the same guy featured in Ackman's book "Confidence Game".... Same guy. Also, how does everyone here get comfortable with the fact that they've pre-booked the litigation recoveries on their balance sheet? That strikes me as highly aggressive...and also a potential source of anchoring in these negotiations with BAC. If they come up short, they will have to impair that value. That will make them look bad. Maybe it's a way of burning their ships beforehand and pre-committing themselves to a negotiating position. I, personally, can't get comfort around that issue, and after reading Confidence Game there is no way I'd invest with these guys....if nothing more than the extraordinary display of self-delusion during the last meltdown and/or dishonesty. I know that's not what an MBIA board wants to hear, but there you have it... You should also take into consideration the fact that Confidence Game is most likely skewed towards Ackman's POV. Confidence Game is a great book, btw, and anyone who is invested in MBI ought to have read it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
txlaw Posted December 6, 2012 Share Posted December 6, 2012 Also is Brown not the same guy featured in Ackman's book "Confidence Game".... Same guy. Also, how does everyone here get comfortable with the fact that they've pre-booked the litigation recoveries on their balance sheet? That strikes me as highly aggressive...and also a potential source of anchoring in these negotiations with BAC. If they come up short, they will have to impair that value. That will make them look bad. Maybe it's a way of burning their ships beforehand and pre-committing themselves to a negotiating position. I, personally, can't get comfort around that issue, and after reading Confidence Game there is no way I'd invest with these guys....if nothing more than the extraordinary display of self-delusion during the last meltdown and/or dishonesty. I know that's not what an MBIA board wants to hear, but there you have it... You should also take into consideration the fact that Confidence Game is most likely skewed towards Ackman's POV. Confidence Game is a great book, btw, and anyone who is invested in MBI ought to have read it. Also, I should point out I'm an Ackman fan, though I can't say I totally disagree with Martin Whitman's initial comments about Ackman. My general sense of Ackman is he just wants to win, no matter what, and that can sometimes distort his view of reality. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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