valuecfa Posted December 27, 2012 Author Share Posted December 27, 2012 I understand it is year end, but I have to agree with the Regulator on this one...terrible timing on MBIA's part. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muscleman Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 I understand it is year end, but I have to agree with the Regulator on this one...terrible timing on MBIA's part. I am a bit worried here. I am not sure about insurance regulations, but I know that in the banking business, it is always not a good idea to piss of regulators. I saw banks like TNCC suddenly blow up in a few months after the regulators turned aggressive. According to the news, they didn't receive any bonus for the year 2011 after talking to the regulators, so how come in 2012, they suddenly all ignore the regulators' opinion? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmichaud Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 H/T to valuecfa for passing along this blog a week or so ago... http://www.subprimeshakeout.com/2012/12/five-signs-plaintiffs-winning-rmbs-war.html Phenomenal legal analysis of the situation - what really struck me in particular is the importance of the MBIA v. BAC put-back case on the ultimate approval of the BNY settlement.... I honestly don't see how BAC lets this go to trial with a straight face, especially considering JPM/Bear Stearns ruling that would open up a flood of litigation in addition to the risk a trial poses to the BNY settlement... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muscleman Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 H/T to valuecfa for passing along this blog a week or so ago... http://www.subprimeshakeout.com/2012/12/five-signs-plaintiffs-winning-rmbs-war.html Phenomenal legal analysis of the situation - what really struck me in particular is the importance of the MBIA v. BAC put-back case on the ultimate approval of the BNY settlement.... I honestly don't see how BAC lets this go to trial with a straight face, especially considering JPM/Bear Stearns ruling that would open up a flood of litigation in addition to the risk a trial poses to the BNY settlement... I am a bit confused about the article 77 proceedings here. So the investors sued the trust that the settlement of $8.5 bn is too small, and judge Kapnick dismissed that? Then why do we need another hearing in May 2013? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BargainValueHunter Posted January 3, 2013 Share Posted January 3, 2013 http://www.thestreet.com/story/11800614/1/mbia-execs-take-the-money-in-case-they-have-to-run-street-whispers.html While $25 seems like a long way from the $7.95 closing price for MBIA shares on Tuesday, it is consistent with the bullish thesis for the shares put forward by at least three sell-side analysts who follow the company. That thesis has MBIA winning a roughly $2-3 billion settlement from Bank of America (BAC_), with which it is engaged in a complex and bruising legal battle over subprime mortgage bonds. The bulls also believe MBIA will be able to continue operating its municipal bond insurance business, while retaining a subprime mortgage bond insurance business that could appreciate substantially if the housing market continues its recovery. Twenty-five dollars per share also doesn't seem like such a stretch if you consider that MBIA's adjusted book value at the end of the third quarter was $30.64. While that measure does not adhere to generally accepted accounting principles, it assumes no new business activity, according to the insurer's latest quarterly filing. Twenty five dollars per share does seem like a stretch, however, if you consider that MBIA's subprime unit had $534 million in cash at the end of the second quarter, and $386 million at the end of the third quarter. Research firm Creditsights argues the unit is on track run out of cash by the second quarter of 2013. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muscleman Posted January 3, 2013 Share Posted January 3, 2013 http://www.thestreet.com/story/11800614/1/mbia-execs-take-the-money-in-case-they-have-to-run-street-whispers.html While $25 seems like a long way from the $7.95 closing price for MBIA shares on Tuesday, it is consistent with the bullish thesis for the shares put forward by at least three sell-side analysts who follow the company. That thesis has MBIA winning a roughly $2-3 billion settlement from Bank of America (BAC_), with which it is engaged in a complex and bruising legal battle over subprime mortgage bonds. The bulls also believe MBIA will be able to continue operating its municipal bond insurance business, while retaining a subprime mortgage bond insurance business that could appreciate substantially if the housing market continues its recovery. Twenty-five dollars per share also doesn't seem like such a stretch if you consider that MBIA's adjusted book value at the end of the third quarter was $30.64. While that measure does not adhere to generally accepted accounting principles, it assumes no new business activity, according to the insurer's latest quarterly filing. Twenty five dollars per share does seem like a stretch, however, if you consider that MBIA's subprime unit had $534 million in cash at the end of the second quarter, and $386 million at the end of the third quarter. Research firm Creditsights argues the unit is on track run out of cash by the second quarter of 2013. Why does CreditSights argue that the unit will run out of cash by 2013 Q2? Did they just do a linear projection? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShahKhezri Posted January 4, 2013 Share Posted January 4, 2013 What's going on? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kraven Posted January 4, 2013 Share Posted January 4, 2013 What's going on? To my knowledge there is no news out there. My sources haven't heard anything. Seems to me it's some short covering going on heading into the weekend, but no idea if it's because of a legitimate reason (settlement or favorable ruling) or just irrational fear. I guess we'll know soon enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SI Posted January 4, 2013 Share Posted January 4, 2013 Rumor is bac settlement in hand. You knew when Moynihan did that story with the FT this week he was feeling pretty comfortable, it appears that comfort wasn't just related to the income statement but I guess the balance sheet as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tng Posted January 4, 2013 Share Posted January 4, 2013 Price went up because someone brought a ton of January call options, basically betting that the stock will skyrocket +25% next 2 weeks. Smells like insider trading, so that is stirring the rumor mill. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PlanMaestro Posted January 4, 2013 Share Posted January 4, 2013 Bank of America Ordered to Unseal Documents in MBIA Case http://www.thestreet.com/story/11804771/1/bank-of-america-ordered-to-unseal-documents-in-mbia-case.html Judge Bransten granted many of Bank of America's requests to keep documents under seal, but MBIA shares still gained 11.67% Friday. BTIG's Palmer, who is bullish on MBIA shares, sees the Judge's order as a positive for the bond insurer. "We have said for some time that a settlement in the MBIA-Bank of America legal battle likely would not occur until BofA reaches the point at which it is experiencing real pain by not settling. The decision by Justice Bransten to unseal certain documents that BofA would prefer to remain private - including information about the structure of a prior BofA settlement, as well as details about the process through which it funneled capital to Countrywide - moves the bank a couple of steps closer to its pain threshold, in our view," Palmer wrote via email. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
biaggio Posted January 4, 2013 Share Posted January 4, 2013 if there is a settlement in the next few months, how are you guys handicapping this? Higher or lower than what BAC reserved for? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valuecfa Posted January 4, 2013 Author Share Posted January 4, 2013 Anybody else getting a deja vu feeling? Can't believe we had 10 mil shares trade today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
racemize Posted January 4, 2013 Share Posted January 4, 2013 Anybody else getting a deja vu feeling. since I haven't followed this one as much, what do you mean? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valuecfa Posted January 4, 2013 Author Share Posted January 4, 2013 Anybody else getting a deja vu feeling. since I haven't followed this one as much, what do you mean? Feels like i have seen this movie before. Settlement always just around the corner. Bring on the trial! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShahKhezri Posted January 6, 2013 Share Posted January 6, 2013 Interesting post: http://mbibaclitigtion.blogspot.com/2013/01/freaky-friday-non-event-sealing-opinion.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muscleman Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887324391104578227292446942824.html 11.6 Billion settlement with Fannie Mae. It is unclear to me what is the cent on the dollar for this settlement, but it looks like BAC has to take a charge-off on its Q1 earnings because of this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MYDemaray Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 charge offs are going against Q4 2012, I believe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BargainValueHunter Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 Bank of America, MBIA Settlement Seen Delayed http://online.barrons.com/article/SB50001424052748703596604578227641048824604.html?mod=BOL_twm_da Successor liability is a critical issue, in our view, and we remain surprised that Bank of America appears willing to risk an adverse ruling. But we now believe Bank of America's strategy may be to push out any decision with MBIA as long as possible. The worst outcome for Bank of America may be an early decision, not the decision itself. Bank of America already has some reserves set aside for mono-line companies, though not for the ones in litigation. However, we believe it is trying to hold out until the private-label settlement is finalized. The potential private-label losses for Bank of America, in the aggregate, dwarf the $4.0 billion-$5.0 billion MBIA is after. We continue to believe MBIA will ultimately recover a net amount of $2.0 billion-$3.0 billion from Bank of America after commuting all of its structured commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) pool wraps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valuecfa Posted January 7, 2013 Author Share Posted January 7, 2013 http://www.courtroomview.com/proceedings/mbia-insurance-v-countrywide-hearing-2013-01-09 Justice Bransten Approved Live Stream of $MBI $BAC Successor Liability Oral Argument on Jan 9 h/t to mpauls Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vpagano Posted January 8, 2013 Share Posted January 8, 2013 New post just put up: http://mbibaclitigtion.blogspot.com/2013/01/a-couple-curious-tea-leaves.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valuecfa Posted January 8, 2013 Author Share Posted January 8, 2013 Looks to me like this game is going into over time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
racemize Posted January 8, 2013 Share Posted January 8, 2013 I keep checking this thread since I'm on the BAC side of it--It really seems like this will be a winner for MBIA, and I am biased to hope they get nothing. I wish you guys good luck! I may even join you at some point, but I haven't done enough research... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kraven Posted January 8, 2013 Share Posted January 8, 2013 Looks to me like this game is going into over time Perhaps double OT? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zippy1 Posted January 8, 2013 Share Posted January 8, 2013 If they can not get approval for paying the interests on time, would "MBIA Inc" be in default? There was an episode like this last year, if I recall correctly. http://biz.yahoo.com/e/130108/mbi8-k.html MBIA Inc. announced today that its wholly-owned subsidiary MBIA Insurance Corporation ("MBIA Corp.") has issued a notice to the Fiscal Agent and the registered holder of MBIA Corp.'s 14% Fixed-to-Floating Rate Surplus Notes due 2033 (the "Notes"), in accordance with the terms of the Fiscal Agency Agreement governing the Notes, that it has been advised by the New York State Department of Financial Services ("NYSDFS") that the NYSDFS has not yet determined whether to approve the request filed by MBIA Corp. to make the scheduled interest payment on the Notes due January 15, 2013. Pursuant to Section 1307 of the New York Insurance Law and the Fiscal Agency Agreement, any payment on the Notes may be made only with the prior approval of the NYSDFS, and no such payment becomes due absent the NYSDFS's approval. In accordance with the terms of the Fiscal Agency Agreement, MBIA Corp. is required to provide five business days' notice to the Fiscal Agent and the registered holder of the Notes prior to the interest payment date if it has not received approval by such date to pay the interest due on the interest payment date. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now