muscleman Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 AGO gets a Moody's downgrade and stock pops. Palmer has a good write up on them and current events in a recent piece. Yes. Palmer nailed the stock action after Moody downgrade, which is pretty impressive. I hope he could be right about MBIA too. :) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valuecfa Posted January 30, 2013 Author Share Posted January 30, 2013 The first major ruling from the courts should be coming sometime very soon. AGO vs Flagstar, judge Rakoff said he should have his ruling by the end of January. If the ruling is to AGO's benefit, it seems to be then next big catalyst, as we may finally have a precedent set in putback cases that go the distance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muscleman Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 The first major ruling from the courts should be coming sometime very soon. AGO vs Flagstar, judge Rakoff said he should have his ruling by the end of January. If the ruling is to AGO's benefit, it seems to be then next big catalyst, as we may finally have a precedent set in putback cases that go the distance. Valuecfa, I didn't know that AIG is suing BAC for the fraud loans too. Do you know anything about this? The impact of this on AIG is much smaller than MBI, but still big. http://www.cogonews.com/bank-of-america-corp-nysebac-and-american-international-group-inc-nyseaig-need-to-produce-evidence-from-their-bailout-says-court/122156/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Capitalist World Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 This is one of the most informed opinions out there on MBIA vs BAC litigation. http://mbibaclitigtion.blogspot.ca/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valuecfa Posted February 5, 2013 Author Share Posted February 5, 2013 We should get a bit of news sometime today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kraven Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 We should get a bit of news sometime today What are you expecting? The AGO decision from Rakoff or something else? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valuecfa Posted February 5, 2013 Author Share Posted February 5, 2013 We should get a bit of news sometime today What are you expecting? The AGO decision from Rakoff or something else? Yes, Rakoff. Frankel was told by the clerk it would be Monday. The clerk told me it would be today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PlanMaestro Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 Rakoff: http://newsandinsight.thomsonreuters.com/uploadedFiles/Reuters_Content/2013/02_-_February/11%20CV%202375%20Opinion.pdf In conclusion, the Court hereby grants judgment in favor of Assured on its claims for breach of contract against Flagstar in the amount of $90.1 million plus contractual interest and attorneys' fees and costs to be determined hereafter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valuecfa Posted February 5, 2013 Author Share Posted February 5, 2013 Rakoff: http://newsandinsight.thomsonreuters.com/uploadedFiles/Reuters_Content/2013/02_-_February/11%20CV%202375%20Opinion.pdf In conclusion, the Court hereby grants judgment in favor of Assured on its claims for breach of contract against Flagstar in the amount of $90.1 million plus contractual interest and attorneys' fees and costs to be determined hereafter. ;D Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
txlaw Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 Rakoff: http://newsandinsight.thomsonreuters.com/uploadedFiles/Reuters_Content/2013/02_-_February/11%20CV%202375%20Opinion.pdf In conclusion, the Court hereby grants judgment in favor of Assured on its claims for breach of contract against Flagstar in the amount of $90.1 million plus contractual interest and attorneys' fees and costs to be determined hereafter. ;D Jed has spoken. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valuecfa Posted February 6, 2013 Author Share Posted February 6, 2013 Next up is the news media noting how banks are woefully under-reserved for their respective reps & warranties exposures... And will the auditors follow suit? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PlanMaestro Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Next up is the news media noting how banks are woefully under-reserved for their respective reps & warranties exposures... And will the auditors follow suit? Auditors? Good victory valuecfa but don't overreach. This is a MONOLINE exposure, and you actually don't know BAC's number (undisclosed reserve). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valuecfa Posted February 6, 2013 Author Share Posted February 6, 2013 Next up is the news media noting how banks are woefully under-reserved for their respective reps & warranties exposures... And will the auditors follow suit? Auditors? Good victory valuecfa but don't overreach. This is a MONOLINE exposure, and you actually don't know BAC's number (undisclosed reserve). I didn't say BAC. And i didn't say anything about non-monoline exposure (different kinds of law). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valuecfa Posted February 6, 2013 Author Share Posted February 6, 2013 Next up is the news media noting how banks are woefully under-reserved for their respective reps & warranties exposures... And will the auditors follow suit? Auditors? Good victory valuecfa but don't overreach. This is a MONOLINE exposure, and you actually don't know BAC's number (undisclosed reserve). In fact, in my opinion, the private label claims are much weaker than contract/insurance claims (in regards to BAC). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PlanMaestro Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 In fact, in my opinion, the private label claims are much weaker than contract/insurance claims. Yep ;) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muscleman Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Yeah! nice! The litigation momentum is getting stronger. I hope we would see MBI jump up 100-200% this year. ;D I long both AGO and MBI. Mr. Market is so unpredictable for the short term. Why is AGO down today? MBI initiated the $1 bn lawsuit with FlagStar. This trial's result will have a big impact on that one, and a lot of other R&Ws too. Maybe folks are taking profits on AGO and buying more MBI? But how come FlagStar jumped up 1.6% today? ::) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
merkhet Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Anyone else think that BAC doesn't settle until after the stress test results come out? Don't rock the boat if you have something in the bag... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valuecfa Posted February 6, 2013 Author Share Posted February 6, 2013 Flagstar, which had net income of $223.7 million for 2012, said Jan. 23 that it had reserved $82.7 million for pending and threatened litigation, including Assured's lawsuit. The litigation reserves also cover another bondholder lawsuit launched earlier this month by MBIA, which sued after paying out $165 million on claims related to two mortgage-backed transactions it insured. Flagstar had separately agreed in February 2012 to pay $132.8 million to settle claims by the U.S. Department of Justice that it improperly approved mortgages for government insurance. Flagstar's reserves vs Actual: $90 million plus interest & attorney's fees going to AGO. Plus, whatever MBI will (or may) recover. Flagstar's reserves didn't even fully cover AGO's claims, whereas MBI's damages are higher. I haven't checked with Flagstar yet to see what other suits they may be fending off, if any. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valuecfa Posted February 6, 2013 Author Share Posted February 6, 2013 Judge Rakoff Delivers Big Blow to Bank of America and JP Morgan in Flagstar Mortgage Putback Ruling Read more at http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2013/02/judge-rakoff-delivers-big-blow-to-bank-of-america-and-jp-morgan-in-flagstar-ruling.html#qCwhjPCkXoD4sYVT.99 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JRH Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Christian must have slightly more free time than I do, he cranks these things out: http://mbibaclitigtion.blogspot.com/2013/02/rakoff-makes-clear-what-materiality-and.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
racemize Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 So, I started reading this thread from the beginning--is the price really below where you guys started, even with this ruling? That seems bizarre? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muscleman Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Judge Rakoff Delivers Big Blow to Bank of America and JP Morgan in Flagstar Mortgage Putback Ruling Read more at http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2013/02/judge-rakoff-delivers-big-blow-to-bank-of-america-and-jp-morgan-in-flagstar-ruling.html#qCwhjPCkXoD4sYVT.99 So the judge's ruling is only for the compensation of the existing losses? I don't see anywhere about commutation, so probably AGO still insures the low quality loans. What happens if there is future losses on the loans? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
racemize Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Judge Rakoff Delivers Big Blow to Bank of America and JP Morgan in Flagstar Mortgage Putback Ruling Read more at http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2013/02/judge-rakoff-delivers-big-blow-to-bank-of-america-and-jp-morgan-in-flagstar-ruling.html#qCwhjPCkXoD4sYVT.99 So the judge's ruling is only for the compensation of the existing losses? I don't see anywhere about commutation, so probably AGO still insures the low quality loans. What happens if there is future losses on the loans? There's a portion in the ruling where the experts indicated that there would likely not be any losses over the long-term, but the judge wanted to settle the potential losses up front, rather than wait and hope. It seemed like the money might go back if the losses don't ultimately happen. I may be mistaken on this, as I was reading through it at a rapid pace. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valuecfa Posted February 6, 2013 Author Share Posted February 6, 2013 Next up is the news media noting how banks are woefully under-reserved for their respective reps & warranties exposures... And will the auditors follow suit? Auditors? Good victory valuecfa but don't overreach. This is a MONOLINE exposure, and you actually don't know BAC's number (undisclosed reserve). Analyst research note out today: AGO’s victory positions it for significantly greater upside. The win should enable the company to present the victory to the auditors of Credit Suisse (CS) and UBS as Exhibit A in its argument that the banks are not recognizing potential putback liabilities sufficiently (UBS) or at all (Credit Suisse) in their financial statements. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muscleman Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Judge Rakoff Delivers Big Blow to Bank of America and JP Morgan in Flagstar Mortgage Putback Ruling Read more at http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2013/02/judge-rakoff-delivers-big-blow-to-bank-of-america-and-jp-morgan-in-flagstar-ruling.html#qCwhjPCkXoD4sYVT.99 So the judge's ruling is only for the compensation of the existing losses? I don't see anywhere about commutation, so probably AGO still insures the low quality loans. What happens if there is future losses on the loans? There's a portion in the ruling where the experts indicated that there would likely not be any losses over the long-term, but the judge wanted to settle the potential losses up front, rather than wait and hope. It seemed like the money might go back if the losses don't ultimately happen. I may be mistaken on this, as I was reading through it at a rapid pace. Yeah... It is confusing to me. valuecfa, do you have any thoughts on this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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