mpauls Posted June 6, 2011 Share Posted June 6, 2011 I think if you do the math, (probabilities A, B with outcomes x, y) the payout is pretty large, even if it takes two years or so to resolve. hedge MBS exposure if you can find it cheap and this is an easy one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valuecfa Posted June 13, 2011 Author Share Posted June 13, 2011 This roller coaster is not over yet. It shouldn't be too much longer before we get an answer on the appeal of the D/C suit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valuecfa Posted June 27, 2011 Author Share Posted June 27, 2011 Sorry I haven't had the time to review the cases much lately. An interesting development... A court appointed judicial hearing officer who previously had said e-mails sent between New York Insurance Department officials showed bias regarding the restructuring of MBIA last week reversed his decision. https://iapps.courts.state.ny.us/fbem/DocumentDisplayServlet?documentId=tirVQewp3WtK4u6/JGiRfQ==&system=prod Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valuecfa Posted June 28, 2011 Author Share Posted June 28, 2011 NY Court of Appeals rules in favor of banks regarding MBIA restructuring Reuters reports that the New York Court of Appeals ruled in favor of banks regarding MBIA restructuring. The Court says insurance superintendent's approval of the company's restructuring does not bar banks' lawsuit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goldfinger Posted June 28, 2011 Share Posted June 28, 2011 Is it looking like the probability that MBIA and the banks settle in a "friendly" way is increasing by the day under the threat of being stuck in trench warfare for long time? ??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ERICOPOLY Posted July 13, 2011 Share Posted July 13, 2011 Is it looking like the probability that MBIA and the banks settle in a "friendly" way is increasing by the day under the threat of being stuck in trench warfare for long time? ??? Hopefully soon. Would like to make the big gain and then buy other cheap things with the proceeds. It's getting to the point where I look for news every day. This week's news makes it look like the ice is thawing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goldfinger Posted July 13, 2011 Share Posted July 13, 2011 Is it looking like the probability that MBIA and the banks settle in a "friendly" way is increasing by the day under the threat of being stuck in trench warfare for long time? ??? Hopefully soon. Would like to make the big gain and then buy other cheap things with the proceeds. It's getting to the point where I look for news every day. This week's news makes it look like the ice is thawing. Definitely it seems they are close to settle. At what price range would you be considering a sale? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ERICOPOLY Posted July 14, 2011 Share Posted July 14, 2011 Definitely it seems they are close to settle. At what price range would you be considering a sale? I'll give it a few days to adjust the price post settlement, then sell what I've recently added. Not sure about the rest of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
txlaw Posted July 17, 2011 Share Posted July 17, 2011 I've been reading the First 25 Years of Fairfax, and I found a pretty interesting tidbit in there. The book describes Fairfax's purchase of Crum & Forster in 1998 from Xerox and how "Prem and Rick Salsberg went to meet directly with the head of insurance services at Xerox." After they told the insurance services executive that they wanted an exclusive, the fellow confided that Xerox really wanted to sell C&F and promised that Xerox would not talk to anyone else. Prem and Rick, believeing this fellow to be "a good guy" broke their "rule of requiring a written exclusivity agreement." When news leaked out about the proposed acquisition, Xerox got a bunch of calls from other potential acquirors, but the executive "kept his word." I'm wondering if that insurance services executive was Jay Brown, who I believe was the head of Talegen Holdings (the Xerox insurance subsidiary) until all the insurance units were finally sold off. Can anybody confirm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goldfinger Posted July 17, 2011 Share Posted July 17, 2011 I've been reading the First 25 Years of Fairfax, and I found a pretty interesting tidbit in there. The book describes Fairfax's purchase of Crum & Forster in 1998 from Xerox and how "Prem and Rick Salsberg went to meet directly with the head of insurance services at Xerox." After they told the insurance services executive that they wanted an exclusive, the fellow confided that Xerox really wanted to sell C&F and promised that Xerox would not talk to anyone else. Prem and Rick, believeing this fellow to be "a good guy" broke their "rule of requiring a written exclusivity agreement." When news leaked out about the proposed acquisition, Xerox got a bunch of calls from other potential acquirors, but the executive "kept his word." I'm wondering if that insurance services executive was Jay Brown, who I believe was the head of Talegen Holdings (the Xerox insurance subsidiary) until all the insurance units were finally sold off. Can anybody confirm? http://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20080219005544/en/Jay-Brown-Returns-MBIA-Resuming-Prior-Positions Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
txlaw Posted July 17, 2011 Share Posted July 17, 2011 I've been reading the First 25 Years of Fairfax, and I found a pretty interesting tidbit in there. The book describes Fairfax's purchase of Crum & Forster in 1998 from Xerox and how "Prem and Rick Salsberg went to meet directly with the head of insurance services at Xerox." After they told the insurance services executive that they wanted an exclusive, the fellow confided that Xerox really wanted to sell C&F and promised that Xerox would not talk to anyone else. Prem and Rick, believeing this fellow to be "a good guy" broke their "rule of requiring a written exclusivity agreement." When news leaked out about the proposed acquisition, Xerox got a bunch of calls from other potential acquirors, but the executive "kept his word." I'm wondering if that insurance services executive was Jay Brown, who I believe was the head of Talegen Holdings (the Xerox insurance subsidiary) until all the insurance units were finally sold off. Can anybody confirm? http://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20080219005544/en/Jay-Brown-Returns-MBIA-Resuming-Prior-Positions Yeah, I know that he was the head of Talegen when C&F was bought by Fairfax, but I'm wondering whether the quotes in the book are from him and about him, or some executive under him. The fact that the book describes the person as the head of insurance services at Xerox indicates that it is Brown. But it would be interesting to get confirmation from someone who was actually there (;)), as well as some rationale regarding why Brown is not mentioned by name. It would be great to have an explicit endorsement of Brown from the folks at FFH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ERICOPOLY Posted August 9, 2011 Share Posted August 9, 2011 Looks like more good news: MBIA Settles $8.7 Billion in CDO and Corporate-Bond Guarantees http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-08-09/mbia-settles-8-7-billion-in-cdo-and-corporate-bond-guarantees.html?cmpid=yhoo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
twacowfca Posted August 12, 2011 Share Posted August 12, 2011 I've been reading the First 25 Years of Fairfax, and I found a pretty interesting tidbit in there. The book describes Fairfax's purchase of Crum & Forster in 1998 from Xerox and how "Prem and Rick Salsberg went to meet directly with the head of insurance services at Xerox." After they told the insurance services executive that they wanted an exclusive, the fellow confided that Xerox really wanted to sell C&F and promised that Xerox would not talk to anyone else. Prem and Rick, believeing this fellow to be "a good guy" broke their "rule of requiring a written exclusivity agreement." When news leaked out about the proposed acquisition, Xerox got a bunch of calls from other potential acquirors, but the executive "kept his word." I'm wondering if that insurance services executive was Jay Brown, who I believe was the head of Talegen Holdings (the Xerox insurance subsidiary) until all the insurance units were finally sold off. Can anybody confirm? http://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20080219005544/en/Jay-Brown-Returns-MBIA-Resuming-Prior-Positions Yeah, I know that he was the head of Talegen when C&F was bought by Fairfax, but I'm wondering whether the quotes in the book are from him and about him, or some executive under him. The fact that the book describes the person as the head of insurance services at Xerox indicates that it is Brown. But it would be interesting to get confirmation from someone who was actually there (;)), as well as some rationale regarding why Brown is not mentioned by name. It would be great to have an explicit endorsement of Brown from the folks at FFH. Yeah, he or someone else kept his word and sold FFH one of the greasiest pigs in a poke ever! :P Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
txlaw Posted August 12, 2011 Share Posted August 12, 2011 I've been reading the First 25 Years of Fairfax, and I found a pretty interesting tidbit in there. The book describes Fairfax's purchase of Crum & Forster in 1998 from Xerox and how "Prem and Rick Salsberg went to meet directly with the head of insurance services at Xerox." After they told the insurance services executive that they wanted an exclusive, the fellow confided that Xerox really wanted to sell C&F and promised that Xerox would not talk to anyone else. Prem and Rick, believeing this fellow to be "a good guy" broke their "rule of requiring a written exclusivity agreement." When news leaked out about the proposed acquisition, Xerox got a bunch of calls from other potential acquirors, but the executive "kept his word." I'm wondering if that insurance services executive was Jay Brown, who I believe was the head of Talegen Holdings (the Xerox insurance subsidiary) until all the insurance units were finally sold off. Can anybody confirm? http://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20080219005544/en/Jay-Brown-Returns-MBIA-Resuming-Prior-Positions Yeah, I know that he was the head of Talegen when C&F was bought by Fairfax, but I'm wondering whether the quotes in the book are from him and about him, or some executive under him. The fact that the book describes the person as the head of insurance services at Xerox indicates that it is Brown. But it would be interesting to get confirmation from someone who was actually there (;)), as well as some rationale regarding why Brown is not mentioned by name. It would be great to have an explicit endorsement of Brown from the folks at FFH. Yeah, he or someone else kept his word and sold FFH one of the greasiest pigs in a poke ever! :P Haha, yeah. Makes it all the more interesting. No blaming other folks, just themselves. Gotta admire that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gfp Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 What happened at MBI just now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jose Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-08-25/mbia-assured-guaranty-are-halted-by-u-s-circuit-breakers.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ERICOPOLY Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Both AGO and MBI had a big day for Sept call activity. Buying a ton of calls in a short period of time tends to create a short term price spike in the common stock (I found that out myself through buying a ton of calls in a short period of time). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ERICOPOLY Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 It's funny. MBI 2.7b in expected put back recoveries that they count in their book value. Market cap is only 1.4b. MBI wants almost 5b from the banks. The banks are keeping National from writing business (opposing the transformation). If only the banks would get together and buy MBI at a premium price, then settle the dispute for 2.7b, then drop the transformation lawsuit. They could then spin off National and MBIA. Maybe they could make enough doing that to cover their legal costs. Probably isn't allowed though, legally. Just found it a humorous thought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valuecfa Posted August 25, 2011 Author Share Posted August 25, 2011 It's funny. MBI 2.7b in expected put back recoveries that they count in their book value. Market cap is only 1.4b. MBI wants almost 5b from the banks. The banks are keeping National from writing business (opposing the transformation). If only the banks would get together and buy MBI at a premium price, then settle the dispute for 2.7b, then drop the transformation lawsuit. They could then spin off National and MBIA. Maybe they could make enough doing that to cover their legal costs. Probably isn't allowed though, legally. Just found it a humorous thought. Ericolpoly, i think our portfolios are likely somewhat similar. My current top 2 holdings are BAC (warrants & common) and MBIA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ERICOPOLY Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 I think for me it's roughly a 3 way tie between AIG warrants, BAC (warrants+options), and MBI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valuecfa Posted August 26, 2011 Author Share Posted August 26, 2011 I think for me it's roughly a 3 way tie between AIG warrants, BAC (warrants+options), and MBI. I have been eyeing AIG like a hawk lately as well, however i just don't have the time to get to know all the pieces as well as i'd like. If it decreases much further i think i may have to start to give it a stronger look over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ERICOPOLY Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 however i just don't have the time to get to know all the pieces as well as i'd like. I don't either. I was a math major so perhaps I'm just relieved that in this game you can get full credit for merely writing down the correct answer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rabbitisrich Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 however i just don't have the time to get to know all the pieces as well as i'd like. I don't either. I was a math major so perhaps I'm just relieved that in this game you can get full credit for merely writing down the correct answer. That goes both ways, as Berkowitz is discovering. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ERICOPOLY Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 however i just don't have the time to get to know all the pieces as well as i'd like. I don't either. I was a math major so perhaps I'm just relieved that in this game you can get full credit for merely writing down the correct answer. That goes both ways, as Berkowitz is discovering. I was interested in the company after I saw his huge concentration. His top holding. My comment just means that if I get the idea from him and it works out, I get full credit. In math if you cheat off of someone else, you don't get full credit if you merely write down the correct answer. That's what I mean. Anyone who invests in his fund is taking his answers and getting full credit. I'm just looking at what he deems his best ideas, and making a more focused fund out of it. And sometimes I'll be copying the wrong answer. However the room for error is wide at less than 1/2 book. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rabbitisrich Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Poor communication on my part. Meant that Berkowitz's thesis seems ignored, criticisms come out after stock price volatility, but with no numbers or evidence that research occurred, so he loses regardless of thesis because grades are handed on quarterly or annual basis. Financials concentration was disclosed a long time ago, and yet redemptions accelerate with price drops. So where did his "investors" really get information? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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