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WMT - Walmart Inc


collegeinvestor

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-The pulled demand from the future argument holds but may not completely reverse if people rebalance their budget allocation: eating out vs stay at home.

-WMT may remain unusually resistant when people figure out the true meaning of discretionary.

-Walmart stores have the potential to become community centers.

FWIW, i really like your writing (content, tone etc).

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You're probably right I was just pissed about the $90 charge. Thanks for talking me down before open, I'm feeling much more calm now.

 

Ha - just got the same email and charge.  But they are actually delivering groceries to me.  Unfortunately 1/3 of the eggs were broken

Screen_Shot_2020-04-03_at_8_37.15_AM.thumb.png.90c6b1d40fb86544ab82e74289dddb2d.png

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Alright guys I'm absolutely back on my bullshit and am going to short this thing. You can't talk me out of it this time.

 

https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Retail/China-s-retailers-face-hard-truth-If-you-reopen-they-won-t-come

 

Customer traffic is "less than half of usual levels," said a worker at a Walmart store in a Shanghai suburb late last month. Shelves in the vegetable and meat departments were well-stocked, but few shoppers passed through the aisles during the normally busy late-afternoon hours. Even with its online delivery service, "sales are not growing at all," the source said.

 

I'm noticing some pretty substantial traffic drop-offs at my local walmart, consistent with my theory that everybody's basements are full of paper and ecomm/delivery are taking share. Stories like this are going to push that trend forward, I think:

 

https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/05/business/walmart-workers-coronavirus-deaths/index.html

 

"We are heartbroken to learn of the passing of two associates at our Evergreen Park store, and we are mourning along with their families," an emailed statement from the company reads.

 

Like I said before, I think Walmart is behaving in an exemplary fashion, but this is going to cost them money and I suspect they're not going to be making it up on the backend.

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Alright guys I'm absolutely back on my bullshit and am going to short this thing. You can't talk me out of it this time.

 

https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Retail/China-s-retailers-face-hard-truth-If-you-reopen-they-won-t-come

 

Customer traffic is "less than half of usual levels," said a worker at a Walmart store in a Shanghai suburb late last month. Shelves in the vegetable and meat departments were well-stocked, but few shoppers passed through the aisles during the normally busy late-afternoon hours. Even with its online delivery service, "sales are not growing at all," the source said.

 

I'm noticing some pretty substantial traffic drop-offs at my local walmart, consistent with my theory that everybody's basements are full of paper and ecomm/delivery are taking share. Stories like this are going to push that trend forward, I think:

 

https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/05/business/walmart-workers-coronavirus-deaths/index.html

 

"We are heartbroken to learn of the passing of two associates at our Evergreen Park store, and we are mourning along with their families," an emailed statement from the company reads.

 

Like I said before, I think Walmart is behaving in an exemplary fashion, but this is going to cost them money and I suspect they're not going to be making it up on the backend.

 

Ahh. Nothing like investing based on a few random anecdotes.

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Here's another Random Anecdote:

 

Just got my first delivery fulfilled. The picker couldn't find the size/brand of diaper on our list, so he helpfully substituted the newborn size of the same brand (as opposed to the same size of a competing brand).

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  • 4 months later...
Guest longinvestor

https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2020/09/01/walmart-plus-amazon-prime/

 

We’ll see how things shakeout. Competition good for the consumer. Let’s see in a year who won and who lost!

 

There’s word out there that Kroger is also launching their own at- home delivery subscription service. And Target.

 

May the consumer win.

 

 

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https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2020/09/01/walmart-plus-amazon-prime/

 

We’ll see how things shakeout. Competition good for the consumer. Let’s see in a year who won and who lost!

 

There’s word out there that Kroger is also launching their own at- home delivery subscription service. And Target.

 

May the consumer win.

 

Home delivery for groceries with in store pricing could be a game changer for Walmart, if they can pull it off.

 

Amazons Whole foods with delivery can’t compete, because most of their prices are really high

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Guest longinvestor

https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2020/09/01/walmart-plus-amazon-prime/

 

We’ll see how things shakeout. Competition good for the consumer. Let’s see in a year who won and who lost!

 

There’s word out there that Kroger is also launching their own at- home delivery subscription service. And Target.

 

May the consumer win.

 

Home delivery for groceries with in store pricing could be a game changer for Walmart, if they can pull it off.

 

Amazons Whole foods with delivery can’t compete, because most of their prices are really high

 

Me think so as well.

 

The ace that Walmart has is the store count and ability to reach 90% of US population. Within 50 miles. E-commerce is being fought at the last mile, whoever brings the essential goods at the lowest cost/mile will win.

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  • 3 weeks later...
Guest longinvestor

Walmart + is here. Here’s my experience

- $99 per year

- first ship to home coming tomorrow. It appears that they’re using third party delivery. Doordash? I’ll confirm. It appears that all Walmart is doing is use their curbside pickup for the third party as well.

- The $35 minimum still applies. No, a dozen eggs alone won’t be delivered

- If shopping at the store, I can scan items as I place it in my cart. Then pay for the cart and scan QR code in self checkout. No lines!!

 

Membership perks include 5% discount on Gas at Murphy’s and Walmart gas station. That’ll pay my membership back in 3 months for me.

 

It’s clear that Walmart is trying to drive more business through their base business model. They’re sticking to what they are already doing. No Walmart vans for example.

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Guest longinvestor

Yes Walmart + uses third party delivery. Not sure which one or if there’re multiple outfits? Tipping option on app, just like Uber. With personal cars being used, it’s not like the tall Mercedes vans running through the neighborhood.

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It looks like there are no "Murphy's" gas stations in New England and only 2 Walmarts that have gas in all of New England.  One is in New Hampshire more than an hour away from me, and one in Maine.  Maybe this will motivate them to expand their gas offerings.  There are Walmarts everywhere but very few that have gas pumps (at least in the north east).

 

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  • 6 months later...

Surprised no one is talking about this and it's a no-brainer. 

Flipkart IPO at $35B Valuation.

Walmart Plans to Sell 25%.

Walmart might be to Flipkart as Napster is to Tencent. 

Optionality: Ad Business, Monetization of Data, Other Acquisition, Flipkart's continued success and value accretive acquisitions such as PhonePe (100M users). 

Possible Downside: Walton Family Owning 50%. Major Shareholder Discount may Persist. 

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5 hours ago, valueinvestor said:

Surprised no one is talking about this and it's a no-brainer. 

Flipkart IPO at $35B Valuation.

Walmart Plans to Sell 25%.

Walmart might be to Flipkart as Napster is to Tencent. 

Optionality: Ad Business, Monetization of Data, Other Acquisition, Flipkart's continued success and value accretive acquisitions such as PhonePe (100M users). 

Possible Downside: Walton Family Owning 50%. Major Shareholder Discount may Persist. 

Why is Flipkart that relevant? They bought it for ~$20B and now IPO it at $35B. Even if IPO’d at a $50B valuation as some contemplate, this is not all that much for a company with a ~$440B EV.

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