BB - BlackBerry

[Smazz]

This guy gets it.

 

http://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/breakout/too-soon-call-blackberry-failure-jackson-135703499.html

[Guest wellmont]

so He gets it because he is bullish? and people who are bearish "don't" get it. that's quite a thesis. :)

[value-is-what-you-get]

so He gets it because he is bullish? and people who are bearish "don't" get it. that's quite a thesis. :)

 

No you have it exactly backwards Wellmont.  He gets it, therefore he is bullish.  His thesis is explained in the article. 

[Guest wellmont]

so I guess by your logic the only people who "get it" are bullish. lol  and I disagree with his thesis. so I guess I don't "get it".

 

[value-is-what-you-get]

so I guess by your logic the only people who "get it" are bullish. lol  and I disagree with his thesis. so I guess I don't "get it".

 

Either way it's a lot of guess-work.

[Smazz]

so I guess I don't "get it".

Now you got it!

[Guest wellmont]

bbry loses 3 million subscribers...

 

BlackBerry lost another three million subscribers in its latest quarter, with its customer base falling to 76 million subscribers. Until the third quarter, BlackBerry had posted subscriber increases fairly consistently. So the fact that it just posted a second consecutive decline — and one that was larger than expected — is cause for concern indeed.

[Fairfaxnut]

bbry loses 3 million subscribers...

 

BlackBerry lost another three million subscribers in its latest quarter, with its customer base falling to 76 million subscribers. Until the third quarter, BlackBerry had posted subscriber increases fairly consistently. So the fact that it just posted a second consecutive decline — and one that was larger than expected — is cause for concern indeed.

 

Every quarter should see shrinkage in the subscriber base as BB10 doesn't use BIS.  BES 10 comes out in May, so we'll see their service revenues continue, but the subscriber base will continue to shrink as more and more subscribers switch to Blackberry 10.

[Guest wellmont]

 

Every quarter should see shrinkage in the subscriber base as BB10 doesn't use BIS.  BES 10 comes out in May, so we'll see their service revenues continue, but the subscriber base will continue to shrink as more and more subscribers switch to Blackberry 10.

 

yep. their only profitable business is heading due south.

[Guest wellmont]

I guess I don't get this:

 

“We believe key retail partners have seen a significant increase in Z10 returns to the point where, in several cases, returns are now exceeding sales, a phenomenon we have never seen before,” Detwiler analyst Jeff Johnston writes in the report.

 

http://blogs.wsj.com/digits/2013/04/11/analyst-blackberry-z10-returns-outnumber-sales/?mod=google_news_blog

[cwericb]

Just to put this in perspective, Detwiler Fenton has released a number of negative stories about BBRY.

 

In December they said "... RIMM’s February quarter may only see a very small number of BB10 sales...It’s our opinion RIM will ship approximately 400,000 BB10 units in the February quarter”

 

Believe they shipped two and a half times that number.

 

[Guest wellmont]

these guys don't get it either.

 

ITG analyst analyst Joe Fersedi writes that the Z10 launch “started poorly and weakened significantly as the days passed,” and that Z10 sales are “in line-to marginally ahead of anemic sales” of older BlackBerry models and the Nokia NOK1V.HE +2.00% Lumia 822.

 

Goldman Sachs has reversed itself on Blackberry today after analysis of launch. Bloomberg blames Blackberry poor marketing support and product positioning.

 

"The Z10 went on sale last week in the U.S. -- BlackBerry’s biggest single market -- almost two months after its rollout in the U.K. and Canada. The country is “critical for BlackBerry’s ultimate success,” said Goldman Sachs analyst Simona Jankowski, who found that initial sales at AT&T Inc. and Best Buy Co. stores were “tepid.”

 

“Our retail checks at over 20 store locations since March 22, including at AT&T, Best Buy, and RadioShack, revealed a surprising lack of marketing support and poor positioning of the product,” she said in a report today. “We also saw limited advertising around the launch.” "10

 

[Guest valueInv]

Speaking of people who get it, where is Txlaw these days ;D?

[value-is-what-you-get]

“Sales of the BlackBerry Z10 are meeting expectations and the data we have collected from our retail and carrier partners demonstrates that customers are satisfied with their devices,” chief executive officer Thorsten Heins said in a statement.

 

“Return rate statistics show that we are at or below our forecasts and right in line with the industry,” he added.

 

RIM shares tumbled yesterday as an investment firm suggested many returns of the make-or-break new smartphone.

 

According to Bloomberg News, Detwiler Fenton & Co., the target of the RIM statement, said that “in several cases, returns are now exceeding sales, a phenomenon we have never seen before.”

Both BlackBerry and Verizon in the United States refuted this yesterday, adding today that the firm would not make its report available.

 

 

In the days leading up to release of the negative report did short interest increase, decrease or stay the same?

 

[zenith]

I remember in 2003 the shorts (Jim Chanos) and the like betting and saying FFH was worth zero, and Prem fighting back. It is interesting to see BBRY fighting back in response to a coordinated effort by the shorts to attack the company. I was wondering when Prem's influence would take effect.

 

 

"Then, on January 16, 2003 FFH volume exceeded 500,000 shares on an otherwise uneventful day in the life of a Canadian insurance company.

 

The next day, January 17, 2003 Morgan Keegan analyst John Gwynn initiated coverage of FFH with a scathing report and rating of “underperform”, making for one of the more eventful days in the lives of Fairfax shareholders, as their investments took heavy losses on extremely high volume.

 

and then in 2008 Morgan Keegan Fires Analyst For Leaking Information To Some Investors

In September 2008, Morgan Keegan fired an analyst, John Gwynn, for selectively leaking his analysis regarding Fairfax Financial, a Canadian-based company

 

Lets see what happens to the Detwiler Fenton?

[Guest valueInv]

There is certainly a lot of manipulating going on with BBRY. The trouble is I don't know which side is doing it.

[Smazz]

Great Piece by Chris U on the CB site.

http://crackberry.com/what-s-really-going-detwiler-s-false-accusations-and-how-blackberry-handling-it-beautifully

 

A guy that gets it and shows what ulterior motives some have and the unethical and illegal depths  will stoop too.

 

 

 

 

 

[Guest wellmont]

Crackberry "gets it". their entire existence is "gotten" from blackberry.  however, it is about the only place a bullish investor can go these days to "get" confirmation.

[Guest wellmont]

I remember in 2003 the shorts (Jim Chanos) and the like betting and saying FFH was worth zero, and Prem fighting back. It is interesting to see BBRY fighting back in response to a coordinated effort by the shorts to attack the company. I was wondering when Prem's influence would take effect.

 

 

"Then, on January 16, 2003 FFH volume exceeded 500,000 shares on an otherwise uneventful day in the life of a Canadian insurance company.

 

The next day, January 17, 2003 Morgan Keegan analyst John Gwynn initiated coverage of FFH with a scathing report and rating of “underperform”, making for one of the more eventful days in the lives of Fairfax shareholders, as their investments took heavy losses on extremely high volume.

 

and then in 2008 Morgan Keegan Fires Analyst For Leaking Information To Some Investors

In September 2008, Morgan Keegan fired an analyst, John Gwynn, for selectively leaking his analysis regarding Fairfax Financial, a Canadian-based company

 

Lets see what happens to the Detwiler Fenton?

 

very different situations. it's easy to see why people would be bearish on bbry. it's easy to see why people would think their future is bleak. it's easy to see why people would write reports about how bad things have been at bbry. all you have to be is a student of recent Canadian wireless device industry history to have that opinion. Funny bbry and the bbry CEO are not at all outraged by the ridiculous and outlandish bullish reports that are nothing but silly estimates pulled out of the hats of Eric Jackson and Jefferies. bbry has had to rely on their PR department in 2013 to keep their company relevant and in the conversation. without that calculated and deliberate campaign (along with Bernake), their stock would be single digits.

[Guest valueInv]

Great Piece by Chris U on the CB site.

http://crackberry.com/what-s-really-going-detwiler-s-false-accusations-and-how-blackberry-handling-it-beautifully

 

A guy that gets it and shows what ulterior motives some have and the unethical and illegal depths  will stoop too.

 

While I can't say much about the analyst firm, I can say that the article is full of it.

[txlaw]

ValueInv, I didn't realize you missed me so much. ;D  But I did say I would try not get into it with you, so I'll let that little tweak go . . .

 

Guys, this is all just noise.  Don't worry about any of these analyst reports.  Let's just wait until the next quarter, and see how BBRY is doing.  If they generate more profits than expected, great -- just increases my run-off value estimate.

[compoundinglife]

I played around with the Z10 at the Fairfax meeting and I was actually quite impressed with the interface. The person at the booth had to explain the basics to me but once I got them down I felt it was pretty good experience. The auto completion gestures were quite cool, being able to type out a whole sentence with 4 or 5 little swipes was great.

 

That being said I have too much of my life/data tied up in Apple's system and the Z10 was compelling but not enough for me to deal with switching to a new platform.

 

One thing that blew my mind in Toronto is the loyalty of Canadian's to blackberry. I can see how if you lived in Canada you might not realize that it was going down hill over the past years, where as being in Seattle it seemed clear as day that their products were loosing massive ground.

[cwericb]

You know when you think of it, Taxlaw is right. We will have a better idea of where the truth lies after the next quarter or two and that's where the rubber will hit the road. 

 

As irritating as it is to see sources going to great lengths to release (or post) misinformation, it would be far worse if nothing was being said about Blackberry. P.T. Barnum was quite right when he said “there’s no such thing as bad publicity”.

 

All the discussion in the media keeps the Blackberry brand in the public eye and that is much better than nothing being said about Blackberry at all. While some have a vested interest in promoting the negative view, very few of us really know what the future holds for the company. However, Prem Watsa seems convinced that they will be successful and he has a pretty good track record and is in a position to have more information than most others.

 

My guess it that the release of the Q-10 will be reasonably successful and may even help Z-10 sales by raising interest in the phone. I also think that as important as the Z-10 and Q-10 are, there is more to the company than these two phones.

 

At present prices, BBRY may be a very good investment.

[DCG]

I've still yet to see anyone in person that owns a BB10 phone. Is anyone outside of Canada buying these?

[tombgrt]

I've still yet to see anyone in person that owns a BB10 phone. Is anyone outside of Canada buying these?

 

I'm quite confident the Q10 will have it's market here in Europe. Not sure it will be more than a niche though...