BB - BlackBerry

[Smazz]

I compare them to the Data General's, Tandem's, and DECs of the world. too young to remember them? Not me.

it's a battle of ecosystems. not technology, not tablets, not phones, not keyboards.

If he would have used the turn "attrition" instead of "ecosystems" he would have been closer.

 

 

[ragnarisapirate]

It is threads like this, when I miss Bronco...

 

Bronco, if you're reading this (which, I am betting you are)... come back!

[Liberty]

Some speculation about MSFT and DELL:

 

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-06-21/rim-takeover-beckons-microsoft-with-cheapest-multiple-real-m-a.html

[Smazz]

Some speculation about MSFT and DELL:

 

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-06-21/rim-takeover-beckons-microsoft-with-cheapest-multiple-real-m-a.html

yep,

it just takes some scuttlebut to move "stocks" 10-20% a day

[stahleyp]

It is threads like this, when I miss Bronco...

 

Bronco, if you're reading this (which, I am betting you are)... come back!

 

what happened to him?

[biaggio]

Bronco, come on back.

[Smazz]

Bronco, come on back.

 

what happened? I remember the handle but i dont remember what he did or was known for here..

 

 

[ragnarisapirate]

Bronco, come on back.

 

what happened? I remember the handle but i dont remember what he did or was known for here..

 

 

 

He deleted his account not to long ago... He was long AAPL forever. Search for AAPL, DECK, or even the Fremont/BH stuff, and you will see why we miss him.

[Smazz]

 

 

He deleted his account not to long ago... He was long AAPL forever. Search for AAPL, DECK, or even the Fremont/BH stuff, and you will see why we miss him.

 

ah yes, i see...

 

he's probably under some other handle now.......

[Rabbitisrich]

An interesting anecdote about Wells Fargo and the relative stickiness of the enterprise segment:

 

http://www.ibtimes.com/articles/169340/20110624/iphone-smartphone-blackberry-wells-fargo.htm

 

Blackberrys, said one Wells Fargo Advisors regional vice president who wanted to remain anonymous for fear of retribution from the company for speaking out on the issue, are what the company provides those who work for the brokerage firm side of the bank. He also said IT employees don't like being asked about the iPhone for company use.

 

"It scares them," he said of the iPhone.

[ExpectedValue]

An interesting anecdote about Wells Fargo and the relative stickiness of the enterprise segment:

 

http://www.ibtimes.com/articles/169340/20110624/iphone-smartphone-blackberry-wells-fargo.htm

 

Blackberrys, said one Wells Fargo Advisors regional vice president who wanted to remain anonymous for fear of retribution from the company for speaking out on the issue, are what the company provides those who work for the brokerage firm side of the bank. He also said IT employees don't like being asked about the iPhone for company use.

 

"It scares them," he said of the iPhone.

 

I see all this talk about the enterprise segment, and how sticky it is, and how IT depts will not be open to Android devices/iphones.

 

Yet, I never see anyone actually value the enterprise segment and compare it to the company's current market cap.

 

To me, if you are an investor in RIMM, that is the key question. What is the enterprise segment worth, and how does it compare to today's price? If you cannot answer that, you should not own the stock.

[S2S]

^ The service revenue isn't worth much, if anything, if the phones aren't selling!

 

Anecdotal stories about how Wall St guys still love their company-provided Blackberries are great and all, so here's mine: I was at an industry conference earlier this month where iPhone sightings were as common as BB's. As for something not quite as anecdotal: 80% of the investment banks have either adopted the iPhone for corporate emails or are running pilot programs before going all-in. Yes, the IT guys hate it, but at the end of the day, the decision lies in the hands of the bankers upstairs.

[rmitz]

IT employees no longer make the decisions. see "consumerization of IT".

 

Most likely it is not the IT Technical folks who are scared of or want to avoid the new technologies, anyway.

[twacowfca]

 

 

He deleted his account not to long ago... He was long AAPL forever. Search for AAPL, DECK, or even the Fremont/BH stuff, and you will see why we miss him.

 

ah yes, i see...

 

he's probably under some other handle now.......

 

I doubt it.  Sanj gave Bronco a one time guest post, I believe.  Come on back, Bronco. :)

[Smazz]

So IT people want to keep the Blackberrys because of security issues but regular employees wants something different so they can do personal stuff on it at the same time?

 

And this was the reason for the article? hahaha... welcome to the real world people. Just do your job and stfu.

[Kraven]

I think people confuse what IT people want vs. what management wants.  At the end of the day, IT people couldn't care less what people use.  What do they care whether it's an Iphone, a blackberry or 2 cups and a string.  They have a mandate, that is what they follow.  Forget what they think is cool.  Their mandate is to provide state of the art communications in as cost effective manner as possible, and oh yeah, security is paramount.  Management doesn't know which device or platform is the best one and they don't care.  If blackberries work and there is no real reason to change, then they won't. 

 

I am not a tech guy and I couldn't tell you one thing about the technology.  But I do know management and all they care about is making sure their people can communicate in the most optimal, but cost effective manner.  And they don't want to be responsible for any kind of security breach.  So why risk your ass on changing to a different platform when the one you have works fine.  They won't.  They don't care that people think the Iphone or Android is cool.  In fact, that's enough reason not to make a change as they are afraid people spend too much time screwing around on them.  There's enough of that already on the internet.

 

If enough senior people in the business say they want a change, then they will look into it.  If it can be done and not break the bank and security is ensured, they could do it.  But right now management is still the 50-60 year old guys.  The blackberry is cool enough for them, especially with new models coming out.  They don't mind having 2 devices anyway.  That's even cooler - to sit at the conference room table and take all your devices out and line them up on the table.  The more you have, the more important you must be.  You can put them down too, sigh loudly for dramatic effect, and say to no one in particular, "man, no one leaves me alone!  I can't even go to the can anymore in private without someone calling or emailing or texting me."  Shake your head, then pick up a device, quickly scan through messages, then pick up the other, do the same.  Jump up out of your chair as you just saw something urgent and rush out of the room.  Come back 5 min later, slightly red faced and sit back down.  Rinse and repeat.

[Kraven]

I will add one more thought. I think a lot of the older guys like having different devices to separate work and private life.  It's not like it's a big deal to carry them around.  The smartphone is in the pocket and the blackberry is in its holster on your belt (it's like Batman with a utility belt). 

[JSArbitrage]

I think people confuse what IT people want vs. what management wants.  At the end of the day, IT people couldn't care less what people use.  What do they care whether it's an Iphone, a blackberry or 2 cups and a string.  They have a mandate, that is what they follow.  Forget what they think is cool.  Their mandate is to provide state of the art communications in as cost effective manner as possible, and oh yeah, security is paramount.  Management doesn't know which device or platform is the best one and they don't care.  If blackberries work and there is no real reason to change, then they won't. 

 

I am not a tech guy and I couldn't tell you one thing about the technology.  But I do know management and all they care about is making sure their people can communicate in the most optimal, but cost effective manner.  And they don't want to be responsible for any kind of security breach.  So why risk your ass on changing to a different platform when the one you have works fine.  They won't.  They don't care that people think the Iphone or Android is cool.  In fact, that's enough reason not to make a change as they are afraid people spend too much time screwing around on them.  There's enough of that already on the internet.

 

If enough senior people in the business say they want a change, then they will look into it.  If it can be done and not break the bank and security is ensured, they could do it.  But right now management is still the 50-60 year old guys.  The blackberry is cool enough for them, especially with new models coming out.  They don't mind having 2 devices anyway.  That's even cooler - to sit at the conference room table and take all your devices out and line them up on the table.  The more you have, the more important you must be.  You can put them down too, sigh loudly for dramatic effect, and say to no one in particular, "man, no one leaves me alone!  I can't even go to the can anymore in private without someone calling or emailing or texting me."  Shake your head, then pick up a device, quickly scan through messages, then pick up the other, do the same.  Jump up out of your chair as you just saw something urgent and rush out of the room.  Come back 5 min later, slightly red faced and sit back down.  Rinse and repeat.

 

I'll make two quick points as I am not invested in this outcome in any way:

 

1. Big 4 guy here and yes, iPhones are offered as corporate alternatives to the Blackberry.  And the Blackberry is losing hard.  Just in my 20 person group, I'd say 15 or so have iPhone 4 as their corporate phone.  And the iPhone is being added to more and more companies.  The enemy is already at the gates and has crossed the moat.

 

2. In my limited experience, it's the 50-60 year olds that are the most blown away by the iPhone.  My 55 year old mother went from hating the cell phone trend and using her RAZR for emergencies only to texting me pictures and video 20 times a day. 

 

To me, the argument that the BB moat is strong because management teams are old farts that don't care about cool and resist change is more reflective of a stand-up comedy routine than reality.  In fact, I know a 60 year old man with 2 iPad 2's? Why 2?  Because both corporate boards he sits on gave him iPad 2 in an effort to "go green and save paper" (aka, all the 50-60 year olds on that board wanted kick ass iPads and didn't want to pay for them.) 

[Kraven]

Like I said, I know nothing about tech.  However, my point, to the extent there was one, isn't that the BB moat is strong (I have no idea), but that it isn't disappearing.  And not from an investment standpoint necessarily, but simply from a device usage standpoint.  In the corporate setting everyone I knew - everyone - had a BB.  But your world and mine might not be the same.  All the bankers, traders, lawyers, etc had BBs.  Think of it this way.  Forgetting screwing around on the internet.  If you have ever had to type hours worth of emails, or type in comments to documents and send that off to someone (and you don't have a computer), you want a BB.  Try typing in comments to a 250 page indenture on an Iphone.  I have an Iphone and that would be brutal.  It sucked on an BB too, don't get me wrong. 

[Rabbitisrich]

Some more anecdotes from the development side:

 

The developers are stepping back from BlackBerry because they say creating apps is too complex and costly for the size of the market. RIM’s devices have different screens sizes, varied operating systems and several ways to navigate, from a physical keyboard to touchscreen to a scroll button.

 

“As soon as RIM brought in a touchscreen and mixed it with a thumbwheel, a keyboard and shortcut keys, it made it really difficult and expensive to develop across devices,” said Purple Forge CEO Brian Hurley. “What Apple scored big on is having a touch screen and a button and that’s it.”

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-06-27/rim-loses-miami-dolphins-fans-as-software-developers-defecting-to-iphone.html

 

 

 

Steve Jobs on the 4Q10 earnings call (10-18-10):

 

I think it's going to be a challenge for them to create a competitive platform and to convince developers to create apps for yet a third software platform after iOS and Android. With 300,000 apps on Apple's App Store, RIM has a high mountain ahead of them to climb.

 

http://seekingalpha.com/article/230710-apple-s-ceo-discusses-f4q10-results-earnings-call-transcript

 

 

 

[CONeal]

Just from a pure user experience do you really need 50 calculator apps, 25 apps that make fart noises, and 595 versions of blackjack?  Sometimes less is better.  How many of these developers are even breaking even on the apps that are created?

 

I think most of the noise is people wanting recgonozation turning their back n Blackberry hoping they can gain traction on their apps on an iPhone that is lost in the already 300k database.

[Guest VAL9000]

Just from a pure user experience do you really need 50 calculator apps, 25 apps that make fart noises, and 595 versions of blackjack?  Sometimes less is better.  How many of these developers are even breaking even on the apps that are created?

 

Sorry, are you arguing that a _lack_ of developer support for a platform is a good thing?  My understanding is that an application ecosystem that fosters competition among developers is a net win for its customers and for the owner of the ecosystem.

 

[Smazz]

Just from a pure user experience do you really need 50 calculator apps, 25 apps that make fart noises, and 595 versions of blackjack?  Sometimes less is better.  How many of these developers are even breaking even on the apps that are created?

 

Sorry, are you arguing that a _lack_ of developer support for a platform is a good thing?  My understanding is that an application ecosystem that fosters competition among developers is a net win for its customers and for the owner of the ecosystem.

 

not talking for him but i think he may be saying for what drives BB, those developers are not game changers.

[DCG]

Like I said, I know nothing about tech.  However, my point, to the extent there was one, isn't that the BB moat is strong (I have no idea), but that it isn't disappearing.  And not from an investment standpoint necessarily, but simply from a device usage standpoint.  In the corporate setting everyone I knew - everyone - had a BB.  But your world and mine might not be the same.  All the bankers, traders, lawyers, etc had BBs.  Think of it this way.  Forgetting screwing around on the internet.  If you have ever had to type hours worth of emails, or type in comments to documents and send that off to someone (and you don't have a computer), you want a BB.  Try typing in comments to a 250 page indenture on an Iphone.  I have an Iphone and that would be brutal.  It sucked on an BB too, don't get me wrong. 

 

The key word there is had. People who had Blackberrys are now getting iPhones and Android phones. And not really sure of your point regarding typing. Of course typing a 250 page anything on a phone would be brutal. Nobody is saying phones will completely replace computers.

[CONeal]

Just from a pure user experience do you really need 50 calculator apps, 25 apps that make fart noises, and 595 versions of blackjack?  Sometimes less is better.  How many of these developers are even breaking even on the apps that are created?

 

Sorry, are you arguing that a _lack_ of developer support for a platform is a good thing?  My understanding is that an application ecosystem that fosters competition among developers is a net win for its customers and for the owner of the ecosystem.

 

not talking for him but i think he may be saying for what drives BB, those developers are not game changers.

 

 

 

 

Yes, that's what I'm saying.  There is a difference between an app and a quality app.  There is no real benefit between blackjack app #594 and #595 (the market is already saturated).

 

There was one developer stating they would no longer support support Blackberry in an article the other day which kind of gives Blackberry a black eye in print.  What wasn't said in the article was the company wasn't making money bc the app had become obsolete by the competition.