BB - BlackBerry

[PlanMaestro]

3-5 years is not a turnaround, it is more of the same and pray.

 

With all that people like to talk about Steve Jobs, but only when it is about product innovation, it took him less than a year to stabilize Apple around a core that he could protect. Only 1 laptop and 1 desktop, for consumer and business, firing a lot of people, and getting Gates to throw a lifeline. It should not take RIMM more than two years if they were planning to take drastic action.

 

It seems as if they are betting that this is an overreaction, want to sell the company, or plan to see how BB10 plays out first.

[alertmeipp]

if RIMM has a turnaround plan, they better show it.

Many corps will switch away from them simply because they think RIMM won't exist in 5 years.

 

 

[Uccmal]

I wouldn't give to much concern to Prem's comments.  He has a formulaic answer whenever he is asked about a stock they have invested in:

1) he rattles off the basic numbers

2) says they invested because they like the management - yes this included sfk

3) we are in it for the long term - of course he knows that if Rimm doesn't turn around fast it wont exist

4) He may be friends with Lazaridis but that doesn't cloud his judgement.  Make no mistake, Prem is ruthless in business. 

Stock answers I have heard a dozen, if not a hundred times by now.  He uses these answers because he doesn't want to divulge any information about what they are doing.

 

Francis, on the other hand, asked Richie Boucher, from B of I, to state what B of I's tangible book was, and what it's stock is trading at.  That was the most concrete tip I have ever heard.

[Rabbitisrich]

Moar! Uccmal, moar dinner notes!

[PlanMaestro]

Interesting, very interesting. Thanks for the insights Uccmal

 

I wouldn't give to much concern to Prem's comments.  He has a formulaic answer whenever he is asked about a stock they have invested in:

1) he rattles off the basic numbers

2) says they invested because they like the management - yes this included sfk

3) we are in it for the long term - of course he knows that if Rimm doesn't turn around fast it wont exist

4) He may be friends with Lazaridis but that doesn't cloud his judgement.  Make no mistake, Prem is ruthless in business. 

Stock answers I have heard a dozen, if not a hundred times by now.  He uses these answers because he doesn't want to divulge any information about what they are doing.

 

Francis, on the other hand, asked Richie Boucher, from B of I, to state what B of I's tangible book was, and what it's stock is trading at.  That was the most concrete tip I have ever heard.

[racemize]

Arstechnica on the the new BlackBerry OS:

 

http://arstechnica.com/gadgets/news/2012/05/rim-takes-the-wraps-off-blackberry-10-shows-off-camera-and-keyboard.ars

 

[DCG]

All the photos I've seen of BB 10 look very similar to Android.

[Smazz]

I wouldn't give to much concern to Prem's comments.  He has a formulaic answer whenever he is asked about a stock they have invested in:

I'm surprised so few caught that Al. Either that or they havent followed Prem for very long.

 

Remember, Prem is the guy that didnt even want to talk to the media before the problems with FFH before the turn of the century. I am not saying he was correct in doing this, he just didn't seem to find value in catering to the media for some short term stock price bumps.

 

Its funny, as soon as Prem came on board, shortly after the CEO change, the company decided to change their policy about giving guidance. Not saying this was Prems doing but...

[txlaw]

RIM appoints new COO and CMO.

 

http://press.rim.com/release.jsp?id=5918

 

This is a little distrubing.  Do we really want L-Squared's former CMO, given the debacle that occurred there?

[nwoodman]

This is a good idea. I trumped up the bucks for Tomtom on my iPhone and love the traffic service. 

 

http://www.engadget.com/2012/05/08/rim-tomtom-hd-traffic-on-blackberry-devices/

 

[Guest hellsten]

FFH just increased their position in RIMM by 109.78%. RIMM is now 18.72% of their portfolio:

http://www.dataroma.com/m/holdings.php?m=FFH

 

Dataroma's opinion:

With all due respect to Mr. Watsa, RIM will likely not survive. There may be some value in the company's assets and cash generated in 'wind down' mode. But the real question is, how much of that will flow back to shareholders instead of being squandered on futile 'turnaround' projects!

 

13F:

http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/915191/000119312512233401/d353081d13fhr.txt

[A_Hamilton]

FFH just increased their position in RIMM by 109.78%. RIMM is now 18.72% of their portfolio:

http://www.dataroma.com/m/holdings.php?m=FFH

 

Dataroma's opinion:

With all due respect to Mr. Watsa, RIM will likely not survive. There may be some value in the company's assets and cash generated in 'wind down' mode. But the real question is, how much of that will flow back to shareholders instead of being squandered on futile 'turnaround' projects!

 

You've got to look and see if they closed out their synthetic position in RIMM via total return swaps. This may be a net net zero change in their overall exposure!

[txlaw]

To the folks at HWIC -- and Mr. Watsa, in particular, as a board member of RIM:

 

Please take a look at the the following paper from Accenture on the "Superstack."  It's worth thinking about this framework for high tech and RIM's place in the stack.  It would also be good to get RIM management's thoughts on this framework, their chosen approach to competing, and what they might do to maximize the value of the company in case their strategy is not as successful as they hope.

 

http://www.accenture.com/us-en/Pages/insight-competing-high-tech-industry-superstack.aspx

 

CoBF board members -- and RIM owners, especially -- should read too. 

[DCG]

Mozilla recently announced that they are building their own mobile OS, due out this fall...so one more companies like RIM will potentially have to compete with.

[txlaw]

Mozilla recently announced that they are building their own mobile OS, due out this fall...so one more companies like RIM will potentially have to compete with.

 

Boot 2 Gecko. 

 

I'm a big Mozilla fan and am glad that they are joining the competition.

[Liberty]

Curious to know if anyone here is buying RIM at these levels?

 

I'm not, but curious. We used to hear more RIM bulls when the stock was worth twice as much, so I wonder if they all gave up or are buying silently.

[txlaw]

Curious to know if anyone here is buying RIM at these levels?

 

I'm not, but curious. We used to hear more RIM bulls when the stock was worth twice as much, so I wonder if they all gave up or are buying silently.

 

I've been buying.

 

I wouldn't characterize myself as a "RIM bull" -- I am long RIM because it's undervalued.  I think that RIM trades below runoff value and provides great optionality for a huge upside.

[txlaw]

Curious to know if anyone here is buying RIM at these levels?

 

I'm not, but curious. We used to hear more RIM bulls when the stock was worth twice as much, so I wonder if they all gave up or are buying silently.

 

I've been buying.

 

I wouldn't characterize myself as a "RIM bull" -- I am long RIM because it's undervalued.  I think that RIM trades below runoff value and provides great optionality for a huge upside.

 

And btw, I didn't start buying until Mr. Watsa joined the board.

[rkbabang]

Mozilla recently announced that they are building their own mobile OS, due out this fall...so one more companies like RIM will potentially have to compete with.

Boot 2 Gecko. 

I'm a big Mozilla fan and am glad that they are joining the competition.

 

B2G will be a completely html5 based environment.  It sounds awesome. 

 

A deep dive into Mozilla’s Boot to Gecko project

http://www.geek.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/05/DSC04868-2-580x386.jpg

 

I've been a Mozilla fan for a long time as well.  I've used NCSA Mosaic, Netscape, Mozilla suite, and Firefox.  I've never in my life used IE to do anything but download a real browser on a new windows install.

 

I use chrome a little bit, but mostly just to access gmail.  I find it runs gmail smoother than Firefox.  For normal browsing I still use Firefox exclusively.

 

[obtuse_investor]

Curious to know if anyone here is buying RIM at these levels?

 

I'm not, but curious. We used to hear more RIM bulls when the stock was worth twice as much, so I wonder if they all gave up or are buying silently.

 

I am strongly contemplating buying some more to average down. RIM is definitely in the undervalued territory now that it is selling 10% below tangible book.

[txlaw]

I've been a Mozilla fan for a long time as well.  I've used NCSA Mosaic, Netscape, Mozilla suite, and Firefox.  I've never in my life used IE to do anything but download a real browser on a new windows install.

 

That's impressive. 

 

I've always used Netscape and Firefox for browsing, but I've definitely had to use IE for certain tasks.  I still use it for certain work-related websites/applications that simply won't work except in IE.

[rkbabang]

I've been a Mozilla fan for a long time as well.  I've used NCSA Mosaic, Netscape, Mozilla suite, and Firefox.  I've never in my life used IE to do anything but download a real browser on a new windows install.

 

That's impressive. 

 

I've always used Netscape and Firefox for browsing, but I've definitely had to use IE for certain tasks.  I still use it for certain work-related websites/applications that simply won't work except in IE.

 

I've luckily never ran into that.  I'm an engineer so I've always had some form of unix machine at work (years ago Solaris and now Linux) where IE wasn't an option anyway.  At home I've always had a windows install hanging around, but I use Linux most of the time at home as well.

 

[rijk]

"You've got to look and see if they closed out their synthetic position in RIMM via total return swaps. This may be a net net zero change in their overall exposure!"

 

 

can someone confirm if this is a true increase or not?

 

where can we find the info on fairfax's synthetic positions?

 

regards

rijk

[Grenville]

"You've got to look and see if they closed out their synthetic position in RIMM via total return swaps. This may be a net net zero change in their overall exposure!"

 

 

can someone confirm if this is a true increase or not?

 

where can we find the info on fairfax's synthetic positions?

 

regards

rijk

 

Look in ORH's NAIC filings to get a proportional look at them. The US insurance subs have to post detailed records with the US insurance regulators in the US.

[txlaw]

Security may yet be the key to maximizing value at RIM.

 

http://www.technologyreview.com/business/40324/?p1=BI

http://forums.crackberry.com/news-rumors-f40/security-core-bb10-722669/

 

A situation like the one at IBM is tailor-made for selling the Mobile Fusion product.  If BB10 can just approximate Android's interface, maybe RIM can staunch the decline in NA market share.