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"You've got to look and see if they closed out their synthetic position in RIMM via total return swaps. This may be a net net zero change in their overall exposure!"

 

 

can someone confirm if this is a true increase or not?

 

where can we find the info on fairfax's synthetic positions?

 

regards

rijk

 

Look in ORH's NAIC filings to get a proportional look at them. The US insurance subs have to post detailed records with the US insurance regulators in the US.

 

ok thanks, i downloaded ORH's dec 2011 and q1 2012 filing (NAIC code 23680)

 

a few observations:

 

- balance sheet total return swaps value has increased from $19 million in dec 2011 to $28 million in mar 2012

- ORH bought approx $100 million greek government bonds at approx 25% of par in mar 2012

- ORH sold approx $100 million greek government bonds at $30 million profit (apparently on the same day as the above purchases were made???)

- ORH bought approx $70 million RIMM shares in jan 2012, in dec 2011 the related RIMM shares were held by ORH as total return swaps

- ORH balance sheet as of mar 2012 only shows total return swaps (replication) for US Bancorp, Wells Fargo and Dell

- ORH held approx $36 million Sino Forest bonds as of dec 2011, wonder what the fair value of these bonds is today.....

 

 

my conclusion is that that there are no total return swap transactions in q1 at ORH that would offset the significant increase in RIMM at Fairfax, so Fairfax seems to have more than doubled their RIMM position during q1 2012

 

any observations from other board members to either confirm or deny this would be most welcome....

 

regards

rijk

 

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"You've got to look and see if they closed out their synthetic position in RIMM via total return swaps. This may be a net net zero change in their overall exposure!"

 

 

can someone confirm if this is a true increase or not?

 

where can we find the info on fairfax's synthetic positions?

 

regards

rijk

 

Look in ORH's NAIC filings to get a proportional look at them. The US insurance subs have to post detailed records with the US insurance regulators in the US.

 

ok thanks, i downloaded ORH's dec 2011 and q1 2012 filing (NAIC code 23680)

 

a few observations:

 

- balance sheet total return swaps value has increased from $19 million in dec 2011 to $28 million in mar 2012

- ORH bought approx $100 million greek government bonds at approx 25% of par in mar 2012

- ORH sold approx $100 million greek government bonds at $30 million profit (apparently on the same day as the above purchases were made???)

- ORH bought approx $70 million RIMM shares in jan 2012, in dec 2011 the related RIMM shares were held by ORH as total return swaps

- ORH balance sheet as of mar 2012 only shows total return swaps (replication) for US Bancorp, Wells Fargo and Dell

- ORH held approx $36 million Sino Forest bonds as of dec 2011, wonder what the fair value of these bonds is today.....

 

 

my conclusion is that that there are no total return swap transactions in q1 at ORH that would offset the significant increase in RIMM at Fairfax, so Fairfax seems to have more than doubled their RIMM position during q1 2012

 

any observations from other board members to either confirm or deny this would be most welcome....

 

regards

rijk

 

Rijk,

I believe you are reading this wrong. At 12/31/2011 FFH held (via Odyssey, and potentially had other positions at Hold Co or another sub) a long position in RIMM TR swaps ($70 million notional at 12/31). They no longer have this position at ORH as of 3/31. So either they exited the swaps at ORH and reentered them at Hold Co. or another sub, or, they exited the swap and replaced the exposure with direct ownership of the common.

 

Also, on the greek debt, FFH got clowned on a position in greek debt they bought last year at 40-50 cents on the dollar (not to say it was a bad idea, many believed the Euro zone would have to somehow cover these in full for fear of triggering CDS). The "new" position in greek debt actually appears to be what they received in the coercive exchange offering that was forced on them. 

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"You've got to look and see if they closed out their synthetic position in RIMM via total return swaps. This may be a net net zero change in their overall exposure!"

 

 

can someone confirm if this is a true increase or not?

 

where can we find the info on fairfax's synthetic positions?

 

regards

rijk

 

Look in ORH's NAIC filings to get a proportional look at them. The US insurance subs have to post detailed records with the US insurance regulators in the US.

 

ok thanks, i downloaded ORH's dec 2011 and q1 2012 filing (NAIC code 23680)

 

a few observations:

 

- balance sheet total return swaps value has increased from $19 million in dec 2011 to $28 million in mar 2012

- ORH bought approx $100 million greek government bonds at approx 25% of par in mar 2012

- ORH sold approx $100 million greek government bonds at $30 million profit (apparently on the same day as the above purchases were made???)

- ORH bought approx $70 million RIMM shares in jan 2012, in dec 2011 the related RIMM shares were held by ORH as total return swaps

- ORH balance sheet as of mar 2012 only shows total return swaps (replication) for US Bancorp, Wells Fargo and Dell

- ORH held approx $36 million Sino Forest bonds as of dec 2011, wonder what the fair value of these bonds is today.....

 

 

my conclusion is that that there are no total return swap transactions in q1 at ORH that would offset the significant increase in RIMM at Fairfax, so Fairfax seems to have more than doubled their RIMM position during q1 2012

 

any observations from other board members to either confirm or deny this would be most welcome....

 

regards

rijk

 

Rijk,

I believe you are reading this wrong. At 12/31/2011 FFH held (via Odyssey, and potentially had other positions at Hold Co or another sub) a long position in RIMM TR swaps ($70 million notional at 12/31). They no longer have this position at ORH as of 3/31. So either they exited the swaps at ORH and reentered them at Hold Co. or another sub, or, they exited the swap and replaced the exposure with direct ownership of the common.

 

Also, on the greek debt, FFH got clowned on a position in greek debt they bought last year at 40-50 cents on the dollar (not to say it was a bad idea, many believed the Euro zone would have to somehow cover these in full for fear of triggering CDS). The "new" position in greek debt actually appears to be what they received in the coercive exchange offering that was forced on them.

 

 

ok, thanks for the follow up, the greek story makes sense

 

on ORH's RIMM position, think we are actually saying the same, i stated that a dec 2011 total return swap position corresponding to approx $70 million underlying RIMM shares was replaced in q1 by a direct purchase of approx $70 million RIMM shares, so at ORH level this nets out.... consequently, at Fairfax level, we still have a double in RIMM shares, what am i missing???

 

regards

rijk 

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"...on ORH's RIMM position, think we are actually saying the same, i stated that a dec 2011 total return swap position corresponding to approx $70 million underlying RIMM shares was replaced in q1 by a direct purchase of approx $70 million RIMM shares, so at ORH level this nets out.... consequently, at Fairfax level, we still have a double in RIMM shares, what am i missing???

 

regards

rijk" 

 

Rijk,

 

What I am saying is this. The swaps do not show up as holdings of RIMM shares in the 13F-HR that Fairfax files each quarter. So if they had a $70 million long swap position in RIMM at the end of last year, but took that off during the quarter (for a reduction in RIMM exposure of $70 million), and then took $70 million in cash and bought RIMM shares, we have a net $0 change in our economic exposure to RIMM. However, FFH would now report on its 13F-HR the ownership of $70 million more in shares. All that I am saying is that is what most likely happened is that FFH took off all of the long swaps on RIMM and used cash to purchase physical shares instead. So indeed there is a doubling of FFH's ownership in RIMM, but the economic exposure to RIMM has stayed the same because the long swaps are now gone.

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"...on ORH's RIMM position, think we are actually saying the same, i stated that a dec 2011 total return swap position corresponding to approx $70 million underlying RIMM shares was replaced in q1 by a direct purchase of approx $70 million RIMM shares, so at ORH level this nets out.... consequently, at Fairfax level, we still have a double in RIMM shares, what am i missing???

 

regards

rijk" 

 

Rijk,

 

What I am saying is this. The swaps do not show up as holdings of RIMM shares in the 13F-HR that Fairfax files each quarter. So if they had a $70 million long swap position in RIMM at the end of last year, but took that off during the quarter (for a reduction in RIMM exposure of $70 million), and then took $70 million in cash and bought RIMM shares, we have a net $0 change in our economic exposure to RIMM. However, FFH would now report on its 13F-HR the ownership of $70 million more in shares. All that I am saying is that is what most likely happened is that FFH took off all of the long swaps on RIMM and used cash to purchase physical shares instead. So indeed there is a doubling of FFH's ownership in RIMM, but the economic exposure to RIMM has stayed the same because the long swaps are now gone.

 

 

ok, thanks, the $70 million corresponds to approx 4 million shares, the q1 share count increased by approx 14 million, do you believe that the missing 10 million also represents total return swaps exchanged for direct share holdings in other subs?

 

regards

rijk

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"...on ORH's RIMM position, think we are actually saying the same, i stated that a dec 2011 total return swap position corresponding to approx $70 million underlying RIMM shares was replaced in q1 by a direct purchase of approx $70 million RIMM shares, so at ORH level this nets out.... consequently, at Fairfax level, we still have a double in RIMM shares, what am i missing???

 

regards

rijk" 

 

Rijk,

 

What I am saying is this. The swaps do not show up as holdings of RIMM shares in the 13F-HR that Fairfax files each quarter. So if they had a $70 million long swap position in RIMM at the end of last year, but took that off during the quarter (for a reduction in RIMM exposure of $70 million), and then took $70 million in cash and bought RIMM shares, we have a net $0 change in our economic exposure to RIMM. However, FFH would now report on its 13F-HR the ownership of $70 million more in shares. All that I am saying is that is what most likely happened is that FFH took off all of the long swaps on RIMM and used cash to purchase physical shares instead. So indeed there is a doubling of FFH's ownership in RIMM, but the economic exposure to RIMM has stayed the same because the long swaps are now gone.

 

 

ok, thanks, the $70 million corresponds to approx 4 million shares, the q1 share count increased by approx 14 million, do you believe that the missing 10 million also represents total return swaps exchanged for direct share holdings in other subs?

 

regards

rijk

 

I haven't gone through each sub, so I don't know what the other subs had in terms of swaps exposure to RIMM, and it's impossible to find the exposures at the parent level. However, I do not believe that they really wanted any more economic exposure to RIMM. Owning the shares rather then the swaps is sensible too if they feel that someone may come in and make a low ball bid.

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"...on ORH's RIMM position, think we are actually saying the same, i stated that a dec 2011 total return swap position corresponding to approx $70 million underlying RIMM shares was replaced in q1 by a direct purchase of approx $70 million RIMM shares, so at ORH level this nets out.... consequently, at Fairfax level, we still have a double in RIMM shares, what am i missing???

 

regards

rijk" 

 

Rijk,

 

What I am saying is this. The swaps do not show up as holdings of RIMM shares in the 13F-HR that Fairfax files each quarter. So if they had a $70 million long swap position in RIMM at the end of last year, but took that off during the quarter (for a reduction in RIMM exposure of $70 million), and then took $70 million in cash and bought RIMM shares, we have a net $0 change in our economic exposure to RIMM. However, FFH would now report on its 13F-HR the ownership of $70 million more in shares. All that I am saying is that is what most likely happened is that FFH took off all of the long swaps on RIMM and used cash to purchase physical shares instead. So indeed there is a doubling of FFH's ownership in RIMM, but the economic exposure to RIMM has stayed the same because the long swaps are now gone.

 

 

ok, thanks, the $70 million corresponds to approx 4 million shares, the q1 share count increased by approx 14 million, do you believe that the missing 10 million also represents total return swaps exchanged for direct share holdings in other subs?

 

regards

rijk

 

I haven't gone through each sub, so I don't know what the other subs had in terms of swaps exposure to RIMM, and it's impossible to find the exposures at the parent level. However, I do not believe that they really wanted any more economic exposure to RIMM. Owning the shares rather then the swaps is sensible too if they feel that someone may come in and make a low ball bid.

 

it's a bit unfortunate that the 13-F filings are not more transparent, especially if the main purpose of this form is to provide disclosure regarding investments to the general public....

 

regards

rijk

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http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702303505504577406342008454230.html

Research In Motion Ltd. RIMM +0.27%may have lost its dominance in the global smartphone market, but its instant-messaging service is still widely popular around the world.

 

Now even that strong suit is threatening to weaken as world-wide sales of BlackBerrys falter and RIM softens efforts to leverage the messaging tool.

 

Teenagers still embrace BlackBerry Messenger, or BBM, for its quick and free instant messaging, and its easy-to-use contact list of friends. Security professionals—police, firefighters and ambulance drivers—have come to rely on it as one of the most dependable forms of electronic communications. There are more than 55 million BBM users today, up more than tenfold from the 5.3 million users in January 2009, according to RIM.

 

In that same time frame, RIM's share of the U.S. smartphone market has dropped from more than 50% to less than 10%, according to research firm IDC. As BlackBerry users flock to Apple Inc.'s AAPL +2.38%iPhone and devices powered by Google Inc.'s GOOG +1.42%Android, they are also disappearing from the BBM contact list of their friends. That makes the service less useful, one dropped contact at a time.

 

Kady Hadesman, a 17-year-old BlackBerry user from Franklin, Mich., said she used to have over 100 BBM contacts, whom she messaged frequently to chat about school and gossip.

 

Now, she complains, "my [bBM contact] list is at 26."

 

RIM's Sales Chief Exits

At the same time, a three-day RIM network outage across much of the world last fall has shaken confidence in BBM's reliability. The service is also up against a host of new competitors, such as Apple's iMessage and popular third-party messaging tools like WhatsApp Messenger, which can be used from most devices.

 

Any bigger push by RIM to leverage BBM, however, is taking a back seat to Chief Executive Thorsten Heins' focus on pushing out the company's new phone and operating system later this year, according to people familiar with the situation. A RIM spokeswoman said the company declined to comment.

 

That is a big shift from just a couple of months ago, when senior RIM executives were scrambling to figure out a way to capitalize on the popularity of the BBM service, these people said.

 

Executives came up with a specific BBM strategy that aimed to open up RIM's proprietary network to other smartphone markers and carriers and license BBM as a service that could be used on a wide variety of devices including iPhones and Android phones, according to these people. The project was unofficially called "SMS 2.0" within the company, these people said.

 

While some within the company worried that licensing BBM to competitors would further diminish any incentive to buy a BlackBerry, others saw the project as a brand-recognition driver that would help the company stay relevant until its next line of phones launched.

 

RIM acquired a fast-growing New York-based messaging company called LiveProfile late last year as part of this strategy, according to people with knowledge of the deal. The small transaction wasn't publicly disclosed. LiveProfile executives didn't respond to requests to comment.

 

The BlackBerry Messenger, or BBM.

.But after RIM's two longtime chiefs, Mike Lazaridis and Jim Balsillie, stepped down in January, Mr. Heins, their handpicked successor, ended the BBM push, these people said. He decided RIM shouldn't pursue licensing deals in general.

 

"It was not up for discussion," one person familiar with the matter said.

 

BBM will appear on coming BlackBerry 10 phones, but RIM hasn't revealed any changes to the service.

 

Still, RIM isn't letting BBM fall by the wayside. Recently, the company launched a new BlackBerry model in India with a dedicated BBM key, a first for the company. Last month, the company rolled out several new applications that allow users to access and link to popular social network sites like Twitter and Foursquare from withinthe BBMservice.

 

A handful of third-party messenger services are crowding the market, each trying to differentiate themselves from platform-specific tools like BBM. The most popular, according to app downloading tracker AppAnnie, is WhatsApp. The start-up declined to provide user numbers, but it has been at or the near the top of app downloads for over a year now.

 

Another popular app is Touch, formerly called PingChat, an offering from parent company Enflick, also based in Canada, which started out as a simple messenger but is now trying to branch out into broader media communications. It already has several million users.

 

The difference between all these tools is negligible. Some offer a free model and are testing out advertising schemes. Others, like WhatsApp, require a one-time sign-up fee and then provide ad-free messaging.

 

"I would say right now BBM is still number one (in the messaging space) just by virtue of being around longest," said Gartner analyst Michael Gartenberg. "The question now is what is RIM going to do with this? Can they maintain this as a defensible position, especially when others catch on?"

Meanwhile, Blackberry are continuing to be routed on the market share front. At the rate they're going, there won't even be a company left to turnaround.

 

http://www.bgr.com/2012/05/24/android-ios-market-share-q1-2012-blackberry-idc/

Shipments of smartphones powered by Nokia’s forsaken Symbian OS dropped 60.6% to 10.4 million units, and BlackBerry shipments slid 29.7% to 9.7 million units in the first quarter. IDC’s figures place Symbian’s market share at an all-time low of 6.8%, and BlackBerry trailed narrowly with 6.4%.

At this stage, it's hard to see a future for RIM as a standalone company.

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Very hard for me to imagine RIMM can come out with something to turn the tide - just the apps side will need a miracle.

For those who said this is a buy, how do u model the revenue in next few years? I assume the fixed cost for this business is high so selling less phones will hurt pretty bad?

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http://www.appleinsider.com/articles/12/05/28/rim_to_cut_40_of_workforce_as_another_top_exec_resigns.html

 

As ailing Research in Motion prepares to axe nearly 40 percent of its workforce in the coming months, another top-level executive has announced their resignation on Monday as the BlackBerry maker continues to hemorrhage cash.

 

Canada-based RIM lost its top lawyer on Monday when Chief Legal Officer Karima Bawa announced she would resign, with her departure adding to the rising count of high-level executives leaving the company, reports Reuters.

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Curious to know if anyone here is buying RIM at these levels?

 

I'm not, but curious. We used to hear more RIM bulls when the stock was worth twice as much, so I wonder if they all gave up or are buying silently.

 

I've not purchased any yet, but I'm looking at it again.

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You wonder if the FB interest in Opera(FB rumor pushing up Finish software maker opera which was up 20% - the biggest stock move in its history. Deal would be worth $800M) was the trigger here to seek strategic advice? FB doesn't seem capable but I guess the RIMM fear is leaving AMZN as the only bidder. Any other shareholder groups that would allow a RIMM bid other than those tightly controlled tech companies?

 

 

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One of the questions we were asked at our AGM in April was what we thought of RIMM.  I then gave my answer and the next question was at what price would you even consider buying RIMM.  I said "five bucks!"  May get my chance soon.  Cheers!

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After giving it a bit more thought, you wonder if Qualcomm would bid in a Google/MSFT/AAPL consortium as well. INTC recently spent money on security software(McAfee - $8Bn) and phone hardware(Infineon) being the latest examples but I wold guess INTC lacks the patent portfolio depth of QCOM so a RIMM bid would be a way to cement that part of their value proposition. I rule out the straight hardware players given the share prices of those that would be able to pass the necessary security review.

 

Re:uccmal - I didn't mean to suggest rimm was a buyer. I agree they are the target. You wonder if seeking strategic advice can do anything but end in a sale in this case. Seems like a tough path to reverse course from anyway and especially given what has recently happened in this industry.

 

FD: I have no position in any of these securities nor plans to take one in the immediate future.

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After giving it a bit more thought, you wonder if Qualcomm would bid in a Google/MSFT/AAPL consortium as well. INTC recently spent money on security software(McAfee - $8Bn) and phone hardware(Infineon) being the latest examples but I wold guess INTC lacks the patent portfolio depth of QCOM so a RIMM bid would be a way to cement that part of their value proposition. I rule out the straight hardware players given the share prices of those that would be able to pass the necessary security review.

 

I doubt if either Qualcomm or Intel would go after RIMM.  Microsoft should really go after them, because their users are the natural demographic that still uses Microsoft's operating system and office software...contrary to those damn "Be Bold" ads with young 20 somethings talking about how useful their Blackberries are.  Talk about alienating your core users in search of young blood! 

 

RIMM's patents are worth a bundle as well, and acquiring RIMM would help Microsoft establish a beachhead in International markets as far as cellphones are concerned.  They make money from Android already, and they will be making money from Windows 8 mobile, and if they can make money from RIMM in Asian markets, that's pretty solid footing.  Cheers!     

 

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Yeah, I didn't really want to say it either, but it seems like a cop out by management.  We're technology experts, but we don't know what to do, so maybe you guys (who aren't technology experts) can tell us what to do. 

 

RIMM will be salvaged by selling it to someone who knows what to do with it.  They should be openly shopping this thing around for the patents and existing phone business. 

 

At $5, I think the margin of safety is good enough where at the very least you get your money back from the sale of patents, and quite likely that the sale of the total business or other assets would get you a 100% return.  Cheers! 

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Other possible scenarios other than an outright sale of the entire company is a sale of certain businesses lines to interested parties, or even a JV similar to the MSFT/B&N deal.  For example, you might see RIM focus primarily on its device management software and proprietary network services, while selling the BB/QNX platform to some other player. 

 

A natural fit could be AMZN, who could pay with overpriced stock and gain a platform that would help defend its share of content distribution and generate more use of its AWS services.  Of all tech companies out there, I think AMZN has the best chance of actually competing against the big three OS providers (AAPL, GOOG, and AMZN), and buying a platform like BB10/QNX could make it into a real contender.

 

A sale to MSFT makes little sense, IMO, because the platforms are completely different -- RIM has decided to buy/build its own platform.  The attractiveness of RIM's business customers is also overstated, I think, because of the BYOD shift, although RIM does still have a security advantage, based on what I've been reading about BB10.  So I don't think MSFT will be as interested anymore.

 

I have mixed feeling about their hiring advisors.  The problem at RIM has not been with their technology expertise, so to speak.  It's with what has been their lack of vision on the strategic end, their refusal to partner or combine with players who have had the right strategic outlook (MSFT, AMZN, and maybe even ORCL), and their inability to grasp how much can be done for ordinary people (not just business) with these platforms.  Hiring advisors shows that they finally get it.  It's a shame, though, that they got to this point.

 

It looks like we may have a catalyst soon. 

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Not sure it is a cop-out bc I don't think they have any choice. Palm was shutdown, Nokia's software as well, RIMM hasn't been relevant to consumers in a very long time enterprises are solving around them while ghosts of Nortel intrigue short sellers.  I think Prem is doing exactly the right thing here if he wants to avoid a quickly approaching terminal outcome.

 

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Not sure it is a cop-out bc I don't think they have any choice. Palm was shutdown, Nokia's software as well, RIMM hasn't been relevant to consumers in a very long time enterprises are solving around them while ghosts of Nortel intrigue short sellers.  I think Prem is doing exactly the right thing here if he wants to avoid a quickly approaching terminal outcome.

 

 

Wasn't commenting just on Prem, but the entire board and actual operations executives.  I've rarely found it a good idea to go to the investment banks to tell you what to do.  Finding deals, yes...but operational ideas, no.  Cheers!

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Yeah, I didn't really want to say it either, but it seems like a cop out by management.  We're technology experts, but we don't know what to do, so maybe you guys (who aren't technology experts) can tell us what to do. 

 

RIMM will be salvaged by selling it to someone who knows what to do with it.  They should be openly shopping this thing around for the patents and existing phone business. 

 

At $5, I think the margin of safety is good enough where at the very least you get your money back from the sale of patents, and quite likely that the sale of the total business or other assets would get you a 100% return.  Cheers!

 

In Australia, when we want to sell our houses, we engage real estate agents to look for buyers for us. I suppose it's the same in Canada and in US. You can definitely DIY. But when you have your day job, it's very time consuming. Also, IMO, price negotiation is easier when you have an agent in between.

 

So, I don't see anything alarming when a company engages bankers to look for buyers of the business.

 

$5, that's right in the net-net territory. But don't RIMM's worldwide network infrastructure and its patent portfolio, both are non-current assets, worth something?

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Yeah, I didn't really want to say it either, but it seems like a cop out by management.  We're technology experts, but we don't know what to do, so maybe you guys (who aren't technology experts) can tell us what to do. 

 

RIMM will be salvaged by selling it to someone who knows what to do with it.  They should be openly shopping this thing around for the patents and existing phone business. 

 

At $5, I think the margin of safety is good enough where at the very least you get your money back from the sale of patents, and quite likely that the sale of the total business or other assets would get you a 100% return.  Cheers!

 

If they are selling portions of the business, or all of it, then I don't have a problem with it.  But if they are seeking advice on how to move their business forward, then I would be a bit wary or concerned.  Cheers!

 

In Australia, when we want to sell our houses, we engage real estate agents to look for buyers for us. I suppose it's the same in Canada and in US. You can definitely DIY. But when you have your day job, it's very time consuming. Also, IMO, price negotiation is easier when you have an agent in between.

 

So, I don't see anything alarming when a company engages bankers to look for buyers of the business.

 

$5, that's right in the net-net territory. But don't RIMM's worldwide network infrastructure and its patent portfolio, both are non-current assets, worth something?

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