BB - BlackBerry

[Guest rimm_never_sleeps]

bb10 will never get off the ground inside or outside NA. yes bb is having some success selling cheap texting phones in emerging markets. but bb10 is an entirely different system. it's an advanced expensive phone. in fact it won't even be out for emerging markets till well after it is released in NA. again too late. rimm moves too slow. And rimm is not going to even build low end phones anymore. they are trying to license bb10 for emerging markets. so far no takers. would you if there were already more proven established OS available for free? andorid is the clear winner for emerging markets. as for delay of bb10. rimm did not choose to delay. they had to delay. it was simply nowhere near ready.

 

when it comes out, I predict it will be poorly reviewed by tech bloggers and influencers like Mossberg. it will be derided for being incomplete and unfinished. it will be criticized for not having an ecosystem or apps. the launch of the phone will be very much like the launch of the tablet. when you go to verizon or att store the bb10 phone will be the 6th or 7th phone they show you.

 

rimm has no expertise in modern mobile OS. there is no home grown DNA inside the company experienced with mobile OS. they know security and push email. big difference.  yes they went out and overpaid for QNX and tat. But that's not the same thing. They bought TAT. but I would imagine most of them have left. You can't just buy an OS and say you have core competency. Not until you've proven you can make it work. rimm has not. and it's too late anyway. HP could not make Palm profitable. And Palm is much more established OS in the market than bb10. as for ecosystems, it's too late. they are too far behind. it's too expensive. they don't know how create an ecosystem. it's hard.

 

As for Wasta I never called him a rube. I never said he wasn't smart. that's your own prickly defensiveness clouding your rational mind. smart guys make mistakes. his bad investment wasn't a matter of margin of safety. not when you buy at $46 and it's now $7. That's not understanding your investment. He didn't. he never thought rimm could ever lose money and destroy shareholder value by writing down assets and burning cash and eating into shareholder equity. Others did. And that's what happened. wasta was wrong because he had a wrong understanding of the mobile industry and rimm's place in it.  Destruction of shareholder value was never in the model his experts and analysts provided him. What exactly does he know now that he didn't know then? this is not a nuanced investment. Your heroes are not infallible.

[Green King]

stock price is not a determinate of IV, but IV is a determinate of share price over the long term.

[stahleyp]

Have any of you guys read Steve Jobs' biography? People keep talking about how Apple is going to continue to innovate and all that. I'm about 40% through with it, but it absolutely insane how much control he had over the company. I'm severally doubtful that Apple is gonna to be this miraculous company when it's guiding force is gone. And now, I don't continue the past year as if he was really gone, since they're still going through the pipeline of what he had.

 

With that being said, it would be a fallacy to think that rimm will automatically take over from apple, but I think there is certainly a decent opportunity going forward.

[Guest valueInv]

Sounds like your a growth investor not a value investor.  You don't enjoy dumpster diving, most value investors do.  Take off the apple shaped glasses. 

Wrong! I own significant amounts of BERK, FFH, LUK, etc. My biggest investment on a cost basis is probably BAC.

 

I used to own RIMM when the stock was under pressure from the patent lawsuit and sold it at $140 sometime after the iPhone came out.

 

On a cost basis, my investments in NOK + MSFT are probably higher than Apple.

 

I first bought Apple when no one believed they would go anywhere and continued to buy every time I felt that the market was not handicapping a new Apple product or announcement correctly. I continue to hold because I believe that to be still the case.

 

Like Warren, my preferred holding period is forever. I have held most of my stocks for more that 5 years.

 

Based on your non stop posting about Apple, it appears like your whole identity and self worth is on the line.

I talk about Apple, RIMM, Google, etc because I know them very well. I don't post on other topics where I have little expertise in and make guesses. Instead, if you notice, I ask a lot of questions.

 

 

[Guest valueInv]

Wrong.  My investment is based on run-off/break-up value as MOS, with potential multi-bagger upside resulting from BB10 actually being successful. 

How did you calculate run-off/break-up value?

 

Sorry that RIM isn't Apple.  Everyone on the board can see that you harbor ill will towards any potential Apple competitor and view everything through those Apple-colored lenses. 

Read my posts on the Nokia thread.

[txlaw]

bb10 will never get off the ground inside or outside NA. yes bb is having some success selling cheap texting phones in emerging markets. but bb10 is an entirely different system. it's an advanced expensive phone. in fact it won't even be out for emerging markets till well after it is released in NA. again too late. rimm moves too slow. And rimm is not going to even build low end phones anymore. they are trying to license bb10 for emerging markets. so far no takers. would you if there were already more proven established OS available for free? andorid is the clear winner for emerging markets. as for delay of bb10. rimm did not choose to delay. they had to delay. it was simply nowhere near ready.

 

when it comes out, I predict it will be poorly reviewed by tech bloggers and influencers like Mossberg. it will be derided for being incomplete and unfinished. it will be criticized for not having an ecosystem or apps. the launch of the phone will be very much like the launch of the tablet. when you go to verizon or att store the bb10 phone will be the 6th or 7th phone they show you.

 

rimm has no expertise in modern mobile OS. there is no home grown DNA inside the company experienced with mobile OS. they know security and push email. big difference.  yes they went out and overpaid for QNX and tat. But that's not the same thing. They bought TAT. but I would imagine most of them have left. You can't just buy an OS and say you have core competency. Not until you've proven you can make it work. rimm has not. and it's too late anyway. HP could not make Palm profitable. And Palm is much more established OS in the market than bb10. as for ecosystems, it's too late. they are too far behind. it's too expensive. they don't know how create an ecosystem. it's hard.

 

There's no point in arguing over whether or not it is too premature to conclude that BB10 is completely DOA all over the world -- I can see that I will never change your mind as to the range of possibilities that may occur. 

 

Your mind is made up 100%, "rimm_never_sleeps"

 

As for Wasta I never called him a rube. I never said he wasn't smart. that's your own prickly defensiveness clouding your rational mind. smart guys make mistakes. his bad investment wasn't a matter of margin of safety. not when you buy at $46 and it's now $7. That's not understanding your investment. He didn't. he never thought rimm could ever lose money and destroy shareholder value by writing down assets and burning cash and eating into shareholder equity. Others did. And that's what happened. wasta was wrong because he had a wrong understanding of the mobile industry and rimm's place in it.  Destruction of shareholder value was never in the model his experts and analysts provided him. What exactly does he know now that he didn't know then? this is not a nuanced investment. Your heroes are not infallible.

 

You've got a bit of revisionist history going on here. 

 

You did not say that HWIC made a mistake.  If you had, as many board members have before, there would have been a back and forth about RIM only, and not about HWIC.  Instead, you said that not only did HWIC have no understanding of the mobile industry when they made their investment, but they probably have no better understanding now.  That's quite a big difference. 

 

Did I say that HWIC was infallible?  No, I did not.

 

If you go back and read my post carefully, you'll see that I believe that HWIC made a mistake on RIM when buying in at $40+ (if that is indeed when they started purchasing).  Indeed, I think HWIC made a big mistake when calculating MOS because they didn't take into account the likelihood of business decline for RIM given the state it was in at the time versus the industry.  Moreover, in light of HWIC's Graham-style leanings, I think they may have been too optimistic about the value of the patent portfolio when calculating liquidation/break-up value, which caused them to average in at high prices.

 

It's highly unlikely that HWIC does not understand the industry better now than they did when they first started buying.  That is the nature of investing -- you soak up info as you go along and hopefully learn from your mistakes.  I find it very hard to believe that HWIC has ignored WEB's advice that you don't have to make money back the same way you lost it.

[rkbabang]

. For FRFHF, a complete negative outcome will not materially harm them. If it works out, they look like heroes for saving a hometown company.

 

I sure hope that wasn't the lone reason for the investment....or even a significant reason.

[Guest rimm_never_sleeps]

you're very sensitive about how exactly I frame my thoughts about wasta. why? I'm not at all sensitive about that. for example feel free to Call Eddie Lampert (one of my heroes) a rube. I won't try to change your mind. or correct the public record.

 

there is also the mental model of throwing good money after bad. For example: Commitment and Consistency - If people commit, orally or in writing, to an idea or goal, they are more likely to honor that commitment because of establishing that idea or goal as being congruent with their self image. Even if the original incentive or motivation is removed after they have already agreed, they will continue to honor the agreement.

 

All this contradicts your idea that we all are smarter about our investments on the second dip. if every time somebody averaged down they "won" I would buy your argument. They don't. time will tell if they know more now than they did then. There is enough evidence here to suggest that wasta was a bit sentimental in placing rimm in his portfolio.

[txlaw]

you're very sensitive about how exactly I frame my thoughts about wasta. why? I'm not at all sensitive about that. for example feel free to Call Eddie Lampert a rube.

 

there is also the mental model of throwing good money after bad. that contradicts your idea that we all are smarter about our investments on the second dip. if every time somebody averaged down they "won" I would buy your argument. They don't. time will tell if they know more now than they did then. There is enough evidence here to suggest that wasta was a bit sentimental in placing rimm in his portfolio.

 

You call it being sensitive about Watsa (never mind that I keep referring to HWIC rather than Watsa).  But really I'm just calling you out. 

 

You seem to have a habit of twisting facts with your posts.  You did the same when we had that exchange about BGR's report on BES10.  Case in point: you say I have an idea that "we all are smarter about our investments on the second dip."  Actually, I do not, and that's not really what I said, is it? 

 

I just happen to believe that the HWIC team is good enough such that they would not fall prey to the trap of throwing good money into a bad idea simply because of a previous commitment.  I say it is highly unlikely -- you say it is a near certainty.  I might be wrong by saying it is highly unlikely, but you are very likely wrong in saying that it is a near certainty. 

 

You also assume that the RIM investment was all Watsa and that "doubling down" in RIM was driven by sentimentality.  Please point to the evidence.  At least point to the Gurufocus interview or some article where Watsa says very little about the RIM investment.  Don't just point to a drop in price as evidence.  That's not going to get much traction with someone who believes that price action has nothing to do with IV.

[Guest rimm_never_sleeps]

again why is it so important what I think about Wasta. I am an anonymous person on a message board. think about it. you arguing this POV with someone with limited credibility named rimm_never_sleeps, on an anonymous forum, gives this issue much more attention than it deserves. we differ on how we see what happened here. that's all.

[txlaw]

Good point.  Let's end this exchange. 

[cwericb]

I have my own opinions on RIM/FFH but have no intentions of getting involved in this debate. However I feel compelled to ask a somewhat obvious question of  rimm_never_sleeps.

 

Why choose that name? Are you being sarcastic, derisive? Have you joined the board simply to attack RIM? Are a you former RIM employee? I just find it curious that you would choose that phrase which is so specific.   

[Guest rimm_never_sleeps]

what does rimm never sleeps mean to you? I see it as kind of a Rorschach test.

 

if you must know the reason I chose this user name was because it wasn't taken yet.

 

[cwericb]

"what does rimm never sleeps mean to you? I see it as kind of a Rorschach test."

"if you must know the reason I chose this user name was because it wasn't taken yet."

 

A lot of names haven't been taken. It just seems that your user name is rather contradictory to your your opinions. It will be interesting to see if the company can live up to your user name at some point. Should that happen, your name will have proven prophetic, while your predictions not so much.  :)

[Guest rimm_never_sleeps]

why the stock is up today: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WlsahuZ_4oM

[Parsad]

Hi Guys,

 

Keep the subject matter related to RIM please, and also no more moderator reports complaining about people questioning usernames.  Don't let it get personal...eventually someone will be proven right and you'll find out whose analysis was correct.  Cheers!

[txlaw]

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-09-25/rim-plans-blackberry-debut-on-six-continents-to-reach-faithful.html

 

Surprisingly, the subscriber base is still growing despite all the headwinds they've been facing.

[Kraven]

This thread is pretty good.  It's like an argument over whether McDonald's or Burger King is classier. 

[Guest valueInv]

This thread is pretty good.  It's like an argument over whether McDonald's or Burger King is classier.

 

Classy indeed:

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WlsahuZ_4oM&feature=youtu.be

[Guest rimm_never_sleeps]

We're #3! We hope.

 

http://www.theverge.com/2012/9/25/3406824/rim-ceo-thorsten-heins-clear-shot-number-three#add-comment

[Aberhound]

The option pricing seems to offer asymmetric risk. The Jan 2014 $5 calls are about $2.70 so breakeven is $7.70 vs. $6.60 price today. The BB10 looks more like a business phone than the IPhone and Samsung particularly because of the Hub feature where you can flip your thumb to see your emails, messages, twitter etc. instead of switching apps like you do on the others. The predictive typing looks cool. I hate typing on my Iphone or my wife's samsung galaxy sIII. The one thumb control looks better executed then the Iphone or Samsung.

 

Eventually someone in India will license the BB10 and come out with a cheap phone. Someone else said that if the ecosystem stays alive the back end of the business retains it value. Is RIMM potentially a better business model in a poorer world with more tail revenue than apple and samsung which both seem to encourage expensive phone replacement every year or two? I suspect that the portion of the market that can afford to replace the phone every two years will shrink and as all the phones get better ever fewer will be willing to pay top $ for the hot phones. Or will it be like Intel and AMD where AMD came up with a better chip but Intel started introducing new chips every 6 months it seemed then wiped out AMD by massive spending. Certainly both Apple and Samsung have the cashflow to outspend RIMM many fold. I like how RIMM rises to the challenge by focusing on being a better business message phone.  Maybe Apple won't want to copy certain features. Maybe RIMM can make decent money from licensing BB10 or just better features like the predictive keyboard. What would really sell me on RIMM is if they are willing to take hard decisions like to kill the tablet. RIMM has to focus on what they do best. People love to see if others have received or read their messages.

 

One other point. I was talking to a developer who tells me that the future is designing web based apps. The advantage is you can change the app easily rather than loading in on each type of phone. You write it so it detects the type of phone and works across platforms. If he is right this would help RIMM and hurt Apple.

 

No position. I have learned to listen to the consensus on this board.

[compoundinglife]

One other point. I was talking to a developer who tells me that the future is designing web based apps. The advantage is you can change the app easily rather than loading in on each type of phone. You write it so it detects the type of phone and works across platforms. If he is right this would help RIMM and hurt Apple.

 

No position. I have learned to listen to the consensus on this board.

 

When the first Iphone launched Apple released it without an SDK or a way for people to create Apps. They said that you could do it all with web apps written specifically for mobile devices and they offered some cool integration features between the browser and the phone to access contacts etc...

 

That did not last very long though, as folks jailbroke the phones and figured out ways to get apps on them it was clear the consumer wanted apps so they released the iphone sdk and the app store. Or maybe that was their plan all along and they were just buying time to get the app store and SDK built. Either way the idea of web based apps for mobile devices was not a hit then.

 

Even though data speeds have gotten better, I have a hard time believing that mobile devices in the next 5 years will move away from "apps" to web apps. Most apps now are just a facade over a backend webservice, but the app part of it allows to have very good control over the user experience. It is also allows much more in the way of offline usage. In addition "apps" allow the software vendors to run the market place and take their cut.

 

 

[kevin4u2]

Is this what the BB10 is going to look like?

 

http://www.theverge.com/2012/9/25/3386444/blackberry-10-beta-3-hands-on-photos-video

[txlaw]

One other point. I was talking to a developer who tells me that the future is designing web based apps. The advantage is you can change the app easily rather than loading in on each type of phone. You write it so it detects the type of phone and works across platforms. If he is right this would help RIMM and hurt Apple.

 

No position. I have learned to listen to the consensus on this board.

 

When the first Iphone launched Apple released it without an SDK or a way for people to create Apps. They said that you could do it all with web apps written specifically for mobile devices and they offered some cool integration features between the browser and the phone to access contacts etc...

 

That did not last very long though, as folks jailbroke the phones and figured out ways to get apps on them it was clear the consumer wanted apps so they released the iphone sdk and the app store. Or maybe that was their plan all along and they were just buying time to get the app store and SDK built. Either way the idea of web based apps for mobile devices was not a hit then.

 

Even though data speeds have gotten better, I have a hard time believing that mobile devices in the next 5 years will move away from "apps" to web apps. Most apps now are just a facade over a backend webservice, but the app part of it allows to have very good control over the user experience. It is also allows much more in the way of offline usage. In addition "apps" allow the software vendors to run the market place and take their cut.

 

One of the interesting things about BB10 is the way that they are pushing for developers to write HTML5 apps and wrap them so that they have access to native features.

 

https://developer.blackberry.com/html5/

 

Probably because QNX/BB10 is supposed to be a platform intended for more than just smart phones (tablets, cars, etc.). 

 

Of course, there are several other ways to write apps for BB10:

https://developer.blackberry.com/

[Guest valueInv]

 

One of the interesting things about BB10 is the way that they are pushing for developers to write HTML5 apps and wrap them so that they have access to native features.

 

That is pretty much a standard way to write apps on all mobile platforms. That's how FB was written and how the current Groupon app is written. In the immediate future, there is going to be some movement away from HTML5:

 

http://techcrunch.com/2012/09/11/mark-zuckerberg-our-biggest-mistake-with-mobile-was-betting-too-much-on-html5/