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http://professional.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887323777204578193203841599128.html?mod=WSJ_hp_LEFTWhatsNewsCollection

 

Research In Motion Stock Plunges .

 

 

Shares of Research In Motion Ltd. fell more than 20% Friday as investors fled the company over worries about a new service-fee structure that threatens one of RIM's biggest cash generators.

 

 

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Synchronoss buys NewBay from RIM:

 

http://phx.corporate-ir.net/phoenix.zhtml?c=197199&p=irol-newsArticle&ID=1769833

 

RIM bought NewBay for about $100 million a little more than a year ago and is getting $55.5 million back for it.  Negative ROI.

 

Interesting quote from the press release though:

We believe that the combination of NewBay and Synchronoss will further ensure the success of the significant cloud services launch being prepared at Verizon Wireless, which remains on schedule.

 

VZ and other "carriers" continue their push into the provisioning of cloud services on their own infrastructure. 

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Guest rimm_never_sleeps

that's true. the carriers continue to try and fail with cloud services. and not only did rimm not make money here, they lost half their money in 1 year trying to get into a business they didn't understand. also, they lost a patent suit to Nok and will pay $65m up front as well as ongoing royalties. the carriers are not licensing bb10. nobody is. Tizen is the OS the carriers are choosing to try to compete with the device makers. it's hard to compete with free. and the rimm patent portfolio seems to have some holes in it.

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that's true. the carriers continue to try and fail with cloud services. and not only did rimm not make money here, they lost half their money in 1 year trying to get into a business they didn't understand. also, they lost a patent suit to Nok and will pay $65m up front as well as ongoing royalties. the carriers are not licensing bb10. nobody is. Tizen is the OS the carriers are choosing to try to compete with the device makers. it's hard to compete with free. and the rimm patent portfolio seems to have some holes in it.

 

Why do you say the carriers are failing?  Where's your evidence?  And how do you come to your assessment about RIM's patent portfolio?  What makes you think Tizen is the "OS the carriers are choosing"?

 

Also, the carriers wouldn't be licensing BB10.  Device manufacturers would be licensing it, with support from the carriers. 

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Guest rimm_never_sleeps

carriers are failing at cloud services. nobody uses them. carriers will be very good at being dumb pipes if they don't blow it. people use google, apple, msft and amazon, facebook, instagram, twitter, spotify, etc. rimm has been trying to license out bb10 for months. no takers. this makes sense. it's hard to compete with free. rimm is paying money and ongoing royalites to nok for use of a patent. I call that a hole in the portfolio. research tells me that tizen is being used by carriers and bb10 is not being licensed by anyone. free is hard to compete with.

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carriers are failing at cloud services. nobody uses them. carriers will be very good at being dumb pipes if they don't blow it. people use google, apple, msft and amazon, facebook, instagram, twitter, spotify, etc.

 

Really?  How is it then that Terrermark (a VZ subsidiary) revenue nearly tripled just six months after VZ bought them?  Or that Gartner has put Terremark on par with Amazon AWS for its IaaS service?

 

rimm has been trying to license out bb10 for months. no takers. this makes sense. it's hard to compete with free.

 

How do you know this?  Really, I'm interested in trying to figure out how you actually know that RIM has been trying to license out BB10 for months and that there have been no takers.

 

Where did you get this info?

 

rimm is paying money and ongoing royalites to nok for use of a patent. I call that a hole in the portfolio.

 

So anytime one has to pay licensing fees, there's a hole in the portfolio?  By your definition, every single tech company has a hole in the portfolio.  AAPL has to pay NOK licensing fees?  Is there a hole in AAPL's portfolio?  What about GOOG's?  If NOK has to pay licensing fees to someone, do they have a hole in their patent portfolio?

 

The reality is that licensing fees is how the tech industry works.  Your reasoning is quite facile. 

 

research tells me that tizen is being used by carriers and bb10 is not being licensed by anyone. free is hard to compete with.

 

Research tells you this, eh? 

 

rimm, you like to make broad statements and throw out "facts" that are anything but.  Don't know why I even bother to engage, except that I don't want other board members to be fooled by the wrong statements you make with such conviction.

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everybody makes broad statements. you make them all the time. nobody here posts advanced research. they post their ideas based on the research they've done. you hold me to standard you don't hold yourself to or anybody else. simply because I post negative things about a company you are very very attached to. I could post way more negative stuff on rimm, but I don't. I could have posted when the stock price  crashed 23% the other day. but I didn't. because I realize how hyper sensitive some of you are about anything negative being said. I would not want to upset you or the other hyper sensitive rimm investors here.

 

I think everyone knows by now that your go-to argument is that anyone who points out that the drivel you spew is wrong (your "facts", facile arguments, and mischaracterizations of what others say) is emotionally attached to the stock being discussed.

 

And that you purposefully post in a way that is intended to irritate other board members.  I mean, come on -- it's a bit rich to have your user name, the avatar/picture you put in there, and then to post everything negative you can . . . and then say that everyone who disagrees is suuuuper emotional about RIM. ;D

 

Meanwhile, stahleyp is the man (much respect, stahleyp) for not complaining about your tagline.  I know a fellow named Peter Burke who would have taken the opposite approach -- complain to Sanjeev about how some of the board members were mean to him and then ask Sanjeev to delete every single post he ever made on the board.  Perhaps to cover up how wrong he was in the past?

 

You make broad outlandish statements that rimm is going to go into the generic network services business. yet they never mention this on a conference call, they never get a question about this on a cc, they never report on it in the press release, they never update their progress. it's a side show. it's a diversion away from their awful device business. yet you latch onto these incredible ideas that have very little basis in reality, like carriers licensing bb10. how is your "brainstorming" different from me making sweeping statements about what I think about this investment?

 

Oh, I didn't realize I had said that "rimm is going to go into the generic network services business" or that there are "carriers licensing bb10."  ;)

 

What I recall saying is that the assets that RIM controls are worth a good amount of money because of how they can be used for a future of M2M communications and the Internet of Things, and that, in fact, these assets are already being used for services such as NFC payments in Canada (which you still won't acknowledge) and telematics (e.g., release of QNX SDK).  You can think of it as the resource conversion approach to valuation (see Whitman, et al) -- the assets RIM controls are worth more than $0. 

 

I also recall talking about how the carriers would probably like an OS that is friendly to them and that drives the use of their infrastructure, not that the carriers themselves would necessarily license BB10. 

 

all I can say about Terrermark is WHO? who cares. It's an IT company that had Zero earnings and verizon paid a fortune for. I hope it was growing fast. It's not a consumer company.  that proves my point. the carriers have no in house cloud expertise. all the expertise they have they have they have bought. just like Rimm did. just like dell did.

 

Of course that's all you can say about Terremark.

 

Think about what you just said.  According to you, the fact that BRK had no expertise in railroading meant that the BNI acquisition was what -- a failure? 

 

Look, you said that the carriers "are failing at cloud services" and that "nobody uses them."  This is demonstrably false.  I really don't need to say anything more on this point other than that you predictably throw DELL in with the mix to get me riled up -- it won't work. :)

 

If you want to find out if rimm is trying to license bb10, research it like I did. If you want to find out about tizen, research it like I did. do your own homework.

 

LOL.

 

So you are here to "save" the reader by assuring them that rimm is going to be a great investment. lol. because what I might say may "mislead" them into wrongly thinking rimm is actually a poor investment. how altruistic of you to want to shield them from my poor analysis. :)

 

Nah, I don't want to assure anyone that RIM is going to be a great investment.  Although I will say that at sub-$7, RIM was a punch card opportunity, IMO.

 

What I do want to do is point out when you put forth bold misstatements, mischaracterize others' arguments, and provide pithy "analysis" that isn't necessarily helpful.  Not sure what your motivation is for posting in the way you do.

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Guest rimm_never_sleeps

RIM’s high-margin services revenue stream is slated to come under significant pressure as operators push back on sharing data revenue,” said Silver, who is based in New York and rates RIM a sell.

 

Sales in the U.S., U.K. and Canada dropped by 53 percent last quarter from a year earlier to $949 million, according to a Dec. 21 company filing. Revenue from the rest of the world including markets like Nigeria and Indonesia, where BlackBerry is the No. 1 ranked smartphone, fell 44 percent to $1.78 billion. RIM doesn’t provide further breakdowns of country or regional sales.

 

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-12-24/rim-pricing-power-with-carriers-slips-as-sales-decline.html

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Guest valueInv

RIM’s high-margin services revenue stream is slated to come under significant pressure as operators push back on sharing data revenue,” said Silver, who is based in New York and rates RIM a sell.

 

Sales in the U.S., U.K. and Canada dropped by 53 percent last quarter from a year earlier to $949 million, according to a Dec. 21 company filing. Revenue from the rest of the world including markets like Nigeria and Indonesia, where BlackBerry is the No. 1 ranked smartphone, fell 44 percent to $1.78 billion. RIM doesn’t provide further breakdowns of country or regional sales.

 

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-12-24/rim-pricing-power-with-carriers-slips-as-sales-decline.html

 

Don't worry, they have M2M. ;) ;)

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Meanwhile, stahleyp is the man (much respect, stahleyp) for not complaining about your tagline.  I know a fellow named Peter Burke who would have taken the opposite approach -- complain to Sanjeev about how some of the board members were mean to him and then ask Sanjeev to delete every single post he ever made on the board.  Perhaps to cover up how wrong he was in the past?

Umm its "CEO" Peter Burke Txlaw - get it straight ;)

haha, what a joke these two posers are. If RimNeverSleeps is not  CEO Burke using another handle then.. well.. he must be a close relative. So the guy did ask for his posts to be removed??  ha ha... that explains it.

 

Good writing Tx Law. And looks like those with the guts to double down are reaping some rewards now and should be even moreso going forward.

 

Sanjeev, I believe someone (not sure if it was here or a friend from real world) said Prems ACB was somewhere in the mid $20s?

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Meanwhile, stahleyp is the man (much respect, stahleyp) for not complaining about your tagline.  I know a fellow named Peter Burke who would have taken the opposite approach -- complain to Sanjeev about how some of the board members were mean to him and then ask Sanjeev to delete every single post he ever made on the board.  Perhaps to cover up how wrong he was in the past?

Umm its "CEO" Peter Burke Txlaw - get it straight ;)

haha, what a joke these two posers are. If RimNeverSleeps is not  CEO Burke using another handle then.. well.. he must be a close relative. So the guy did ask for his posts to be removed??  ha ha... that explains it.

 

Good writing Tx Law. And looks like those with the guts to double down are reaping some rewards now and should be even moreso going forward.

 

Sanjeev, I believe someone (not sure if it was here or a friend from real world) said Prems ACB was somewhere in the mid $20s?

 

Thanks Smazz!  I thought it was lower than that, but I may be wrong.  I'll see if I can find it and calculate it.  Cheers!

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I have ACB between $16.50 - $17.50 in my notes.  I believe this is pretty accurate.

 

Ben

 

Yeah Ben, I think your number is close.  I think it dropped from the low 20's to your range when they bought that last tranche at $11 or so.  I believe they are not far from break-even now. 

 

Also, Txlaw & Smazz - re: Peter Burke CEO.  I don't believe he ever asked to delete posts.  It was Harry Long that you guys are thinking of.  Cheers!

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