BB - BlackBerry

[berkshiremystery]

I'm a Skype power user on my iPhone,... use it probably +90% of the time instead my normal cell phone voice frequency to make cheap international calls and free local calls to my families landline at home, which owns a hybrid cordless phone (Skype handset at landline/with DSL). If a Skype app comes to BB10, I might be very tempted to purchase a Blackberry as a next smartphone. I think it might have already two other advantages over the iPhone, an openable backside to change the battery and a slot to insert a microSD memory card. This are all features that would lure me away if I would be a new buyer comparing apples. Some moat might be slowly melting, if the competition is increasing with more customer friendly features. But I'm definitly not smarter than wellmont to predict the future outcomes. Why aren't we all calm and wait and see what it really brings in a few weeks.

 

Roger McNamee was on Charlie Rose last night commenting how Steve Balmer is one bad sleep away from competing with Apple, specifically talking about Skype:  Instead of Windows 8 with a Skype App, if Microsift would just ditch Windows, and lead with a cheap Skype phone, the traction that it would gain in Emerging Markets would completely change the dynamics of their technology positioning.  They would be a real competitor to Google and Apple almost overnight.  Just thought it's interesting that you brought out Skype in this line of discussion.

 

 

 

Just found the following...

 

Skype icons turn up in latest BlackBerry 10 Dev Alpha update

2013-01-15

http://crackberry.com/tags/skype

 

I'm just a silly civilian without much knowledge of software developers language,... and what this Dev Alpha update means,... but in my laymans terms, sounds like this might be something serious.  ::)

[LC]

Funny, I just noticed the Graham quote at the bottom of your posts and that is exactly the point I was trying to get across to you about Prem's purchase of RIM.

 

"Have the courage of your knowledge and experience. If you have formed a conclusion from the facts and if you know your judgment is sound, act on it - even though others may hesitate or differ. You are neither right nor wrong because the crowd disagrees with you. ----B Graham"

 

exactly. which is why I don't understand your elevation of investment authority figures at the same time diminishing independent thinking investors who may disagree.  Ben Graham says the facts will out. cheers!

 

Ben Graham also said if a stock hasn't worked out in three years, sell it: it is probably a value trap. Not that anything in investing (or life) is set in stone, I am just playing devil's advocate.

[txlaw]

Leaked BB10 training doc:

http://www.slideshare.net/fullscreen/christopherwparsons/stuff-16015165/1

 

I think wellmont is right that the Marketing team is doing a great job at RIM!  ;D

 

Some info I found interesting:

 

-RIM is targeting people who it says are "hyper connected," have a huge appetite for getting things done using their smartphone, and are "crazy multitaskers"; they believe BB10 can uniquely serve these people

 

-RIM is taking a "privacy centric" angle versus GOOG/Android, just like MSFT is doing with Windows

 

-Hardware wise, it looks like the new phone will have a quad-core snapdragon CPU, an 1800 mAh battery (pretty big), and a "retina screen"

 

-BBM video will allow screen sharing, just like Jellybean (4.2)

 

Everything else has pretty much disclosed already.

[Guest wellmont]

the hardware is very mid range that will be priced very high. the screen is small compared to what people are buying now at 4.2in. Next Galaxy will be 5in+, the next note will be 6in+. The processor is dual core, which is what you find in $250 typical mid range android phones these days. High end phones all have quad core. Retina displays are pretty standard these days.

 

So we are discovering that rimm does not iterate products fast enough. As long as this phone has taken to hit the marketplace, and it will probably be late feb before they are even for sale, this "high end" phone will arrive with mid range, run of the mills hardware specs. yet, give rimm PR dept a raise for keeping rimm in the conversation when they have zero products to sell! in addition to the run of the mill hardware set, the phone will not have gmail or google maps on it. in fact maps could be the achilles heel of the ecosystem. :(

[Parsad]

the hardware is very mid range that will be priced very high. the screen is small compared to what people are buying now at 4.2. Next Galaxy will be 5in, the next note will be 6+. The processor is dual core, which is what you find in $250 typical mid range android phones these days. Retina displays are pretty standard...

 

That sounds remarkably like the iPhone 5, except the screen is only 4 inches on the iPhone!  ;D  Cheers!

[Guest wellmont]

the hardware is very mid range that will be priced very high. the screen is small compared to what people are buying now at 4.2. Next Galaxy will be 5in, the next note will be 6+. The processor is dual core, which is what you find in $250 typical mid range android phones these days. Retina displays are pretty standard...

 

That sounds remarkably like the iPhone 5, except the screen is only 4 inches on the iPhone!  ;D  Cheers!

 

somewhat. but why would rimm deliver a phone that barely matches one that was released last year, and is slower than the gs3, which is about to be replaced by the gs4 early this year? apple can get away with having a lower spec device because of their software and ecosystem. I doubt rimm will be able to. not when new phones are coming from virtually everybody within months of availability that will expose z10 for what it really is. 2 year old hardware.

[txlaw]

the hardware is very mid range that will be priced very high. the screen is small compared to what people are buying now at 4.2in. Next Galaxy will be 5in+, the next note will be 6in+. The processor is dual core, which is what you find in $250 typical mid range android phones these days. High end phones all have quad core. Retina displays are pretty standard these days.

 

So we are discovering that rimm does not iterate products fast enough. As long as this phone has taken to hit the marketplace, and it will probably be late feb before they are even for sale, this "high end" phone will arrive with mid range, run of the mills hardware specs. yet, give rimm PR dept a raise for keeping rimm in the conversation when they have zero products to sell! in addition to the run of the mill hardware set, the phone will not have gmail or google maps on it. in fact maps could be the achilles heel of the ecosystem. :(

 

I assumed that the S4 that would be in the z10 would be the quad core version, but you can't tell from that presentation whether or not it will be the dual core or quad core version.  So you might be right that it is a dual core version -- but that's not a certainty.

 

As for the screen size, it is fairly clear that RIM is taking the one hand approach, similar to AAPL, in order to target their "getting things done" customer.  If you have watched any of the Blackberry Jam videos, one of the hypotheticals Thorsten Heins described was a busy businessman in the airport, who has a bag in has hand and his phone in the other.  Using only one hand and thumb gestures (the Blackberry Flow UI paradigm), the guy checks on his important communications intermittently and switches apps with ease. 

 

Whether this is possible depends on the screen size, of course.  One can't easily wield a Note (or even a Galaxy S3) with one hand -- Apple is quite right on this front.

 

Your speculation about the z10 being mid-range hardware is somewhat well taken.  Given that RIM will be releasing six BB10 phones this year (low, mid, and high price range, with touch and QWERTY versions), and given that this will be a global launch targeting countries with all sorts of income disparities, it's very possible that RIM will go with the mid-range hardware first.  Or it's possible that the high-end hardware will never be on the bleeding edge, in order to keep the value proposition that RIM is proposing.  Your assertion that the z10 will be "2 year old hardware", of course, is way off the mark.

 

Hardware specs will matter somewhat, but only insofar that it makes the BB10 experience work seamlessly.  It doesn't matter that the iPhone 5 doesn't have the latest and greatest hardware specs because it is just enough to properly run the latest version of iOS, which is great.  Presumably, RIM is taking the same approach as AAPL, as it is providing a fully integrated solution. 

[zenith]

 

***Social Proof - People will do things that they see other people are doing. For example, in one experiment, one or more confederates would look up into the sky; bystanders would then look up into the sky to see what they were seeing. At one point this experiment aborted, as so many people were looking up that they stopped traffic. See conformity, and the Asch conformity experiments.

Authority - People will tend to obey authority figures, even if they are asked to perform objectionable acts. Cialdini cites incidents such as the Milgram experiments in the early 1960s and the My Lai massacre.

Liking - People are easily persuaded by other people that they like. Cialdini cites the marketing of Tupperware in what might now be called viral marketing. People were more likely to buy if they liked the person selling it to them. Some of the many biases favoring more attractive people are discussed. See physical attractiveness stereotype.

 

 

With respect to Social Proof, isn't that why value investors are different from the crowd?. People tend to do the opposite of what the value investors are buying. Most people said not to follow Prem when he was doubling his position at $7 or so.

 

About Authority, this is an absurd comment with respect to what this forum is about. You really are a bit looney :o

I dont think many people like Prem Watsa's investment style, nor most true value managers, as they go against the crowd. When I was started buying RIMM  in the high teens, I was early, but I more than tripled down around $6 to $7  and have a cost basis of $8 or so. I would argue that Prem's cost basis of $17 will still be a very profitable investment. I was very happy to have a lower cost basis than someone I have tremendous respect for. However I did not blindly follow Prem. Instead I believe the margin of safety at below tangible book was too good of a deal to pass up on, and while I got the idea from Prem I used technical analysis to pick a better entry point. I would also suggest for you to read a recent interview with Dr. Wesley Gray (author of the book Quantitative Value) on SumZero, below is an excerpt from it.

 

Nicholas Kapur: So with all this knowledge, please enlighten us: What are the metrics that really matter when it comes to value investing?

 

Wes Gray: Ben Graham was way ahead of his time. In the end, the key driver for returns is price--cigar-butts, garbage-bin buys, Mr. Market’s lost children--whatever you want to call them, the empirical evidence is clear: cheapness matters. Let me be clear, by “cheapness” I am strictly talking about price alone, regardless of quality. Think trash stocks with P/Es of less than 5--I’m not referring to very high quality firms that look undervalued at 20.

 

http://sumzero.com/headlines/financials_and_insurance/DELL/153-dr-wesley-gray-on-quants-irrationality-and-the-marines

 

RIMM at below $10 was one of these companies.

[shalab]

Hope RIMM works out for folks who own it. I own it indirectly through FRFHF. Here are some sales numbers from a few countries around the world and it is not looking good for RIMM. It did gain share in Germany but dropped everywhere else. In the U.S, it has reached 1.2% market share.

 

http://www.businessinsider.com/apple-us-marketshare-2012-12

 

[Guest wellmont]

I really doubt that the choice of 4.2in screeen was because of their new marketing gimmick. rather, I believe it's because they simply move too slow. after all this phone has been two years in the making, and the 4.2in screen was really the popular screen two years ago. In fact rimm has a larger screen phone in the works and as you point out, that does not fit their new marketing gimmick. So this choice is simply a product of how dreadfully slow this company iterates.

 

As for this device being dual core or quad, I am surprised you haven't done your homework here. It's dual core. In fact the exact SOC part (MSM8960) has already been disclosed, which you will discover if you do some more research. I believe you missed the point about my claim that this is a mid range phone. It's true, the hardware reveals that it is. The problem is that it is the flagship phone with mid range specs sold at premium prices. not a great value proposition. And you can be sure reviewers will point this fact out.

 

webOS was lauded for it's innovation and integrated user experience. it was a beloved platform, just as bb10 will be by the hard core fans. yet nobody but them bought the phone and it is now kaput.

 

I am honored and humbled that one of my posts was the impetus for someone new to create a username and attempt to come to the defense of prem fans/rimm bulls everywhere. I am sure Parsad is appreciative. :)

[txlaw]

I really doubt that the choice of 4.2in screeen was because of their new marketing gimmick. rather, I believe it's because they simply move too slow. after all this phone has been two years in the making, and the 4.2in screen was really the popular screen two years ago. In fact rimm has a larger screen phone in the works and as you point out, that does not fit their new marketing gimmick. So this choice is simply a product of how dreadfully slow this company iterates.

 

As for this device being dual core or quad, I am surprised you haven't done your homework here. It's dual core. In fact the exact SOC part (MSM8960) has already been disclosed, which you will discover if you do some more research. I believe you missed the point about my claim that this is a mid range phone. It's true, the hardware reveals that it is. The problem is that it is the flagship phone with mid range specs sold at premium prices. not a great value proposition. And you can be sure reviewers will point this fact out.

 

I am honored and humbled that one of my posts was the impetus for someone new to create a username and attempt to come to the defense of prem fans/rimm bulls everywhere. I am sure Parsad is appreciative. :)

 

I will confess I haven't really focused on the hardware, so much as on the software, as I don't believe the hardware specs matter as much as you do (as you can tell from my last post).  I think AAPL has it right in this regard, and RIM is clearly going to release the hardware that is necessary to make BB10 work well.

 

Did not realize that the actual chip has been disclosed.  My understanding was that there have been rumors both ways, with RIM having poo poohed chasing after quad core specs just for the sake of boasting about specs.  Perhaps I am wrong about that.

 

What's your source for a phone with a larger screen?  That I would be interested in reading about.  It would counter my notion that the screen size was a conscious design choice.

[Guest wellmont]

crackberry.com is where I read about the larger screen bb10. Hardware matters. it's why Galaxy and Note are pretty much neck and neck with iphone for smartphone supremacy. of course rimm is going to spin and misdirect on the hardware. it's their only option. btw, I would be careful in asserting your belief that there are going to be that many bb10 devices this year. There is a lot of controversy about what exactly rimm means by that. i.e. is it simply different SKUs of the same basic phone? they aren't saying.

[zenith]

webOS was lauded for it's innovation and integrated user experience. it was a beloved platform, just as bb10 will be by the hard core fans. yet nobody but them bought the phone and it is now kaput.

 

I am honored and humbled that one of my posts was the impetus for someone new to create a username and attempt to come to the defense of prem fans/rimm bulls everywhere. I am sure Parsad is appreciative. :)

 

Palm vs. RIMM again, this is getting a bit old! As a longterm Palm user of 10 years, 1st a Treo 600 then a 700 and so on (I still have a Palm 2 on Sprint), I really did love the phone, so much so that I had my phone modified to work on Sprint, as the Palm Pre 2 never made it to Sprint. While I will buy the BB10, I would point out that I have never used a blackberry before, even though I have worked for a large financial company where it would be easier to check my email. I have been using good for enterprises on a 2nd Android device with only wifi conection (never activated) to check my email the past year, as good for enterprises only has the application for Android and the iphone and now the windows device. In my business , many of the wholesellers come in with 2 devices, a iphone and a blackberry. The reason is they want to keep there personal stuff just that. Siince I only wanted one phone, I never got a blackberry for fear that my text messages, etc were going visible to my company along with other info.

However with BB10 all that changed. I am very excited about the prospect of having one phone and the ability to check emails, intranet sites and related client info on the enterprise side as well as the personal side where it is private. How many others like me are there out there?

 

I would also add that while I loved Palm as a company, so much so that I remained loyal even after the HP takeover, i never invested in the company. No margin of safety and very leveraged. They released with one carrier and thus little carrier support, vs. 150+ carriers at launch. I think that the RIMM strategy of this launch will be one for the MBA classes, as a case lesson in learning from others mistakes.

As an aside, yes your comments made me want to join, although I am the one at the last Pabrai meeting in California that asked him about RIMM and Prem Watsa, he was not interested in the company!

 

[rmitz]

crackberry.com is where I read about the larger screen bb10. Hardware matters. it's why Galaxy and Note are pretty much neck and neck with iphone for smartphone supremacy. of course rimm is going to spin and misdirect on the hardware. it's their only option. btw, I would be careful in asserting your belief that there are going to be that many bb10 devices this year. There is a lot of controversy about what exactly rimm means by that. i.e. is it simply different SKUs of the same basic phone? they aren't saying.

 

Personally, I want a full-featured phone but physically smaller than even an iphone.  I cannot fathom who would use a 6"+ phone, but that's what makes a market.

[Guest wellmont]

crackberry.com is where I read about the larger screen bb10. Hardware matters. it's why Galaxy and Note are pretty much neck and neck with iphone for smartphone supremacy. of course rimm is going to spin and misdirect on the hardware. it's their only option. btw, I would be careful in asserting your belief that there are going to be that many bb10 devices this year. There is a lot of controversy about what exactly rimm means by that. i.e. is it simply different SKUs of the same basic phone? they aren't saying.

 

Personally, I want a full-featured phone but physically smaller than even an iphone.  I cannot fathom who would use a 6"+ phone, but that's what makes a market.

 

you are a contrarian. :) big screen phones are the trend. People Love them.

[Guest wellmont]

However with BB10 all that changed. I am very excited about the prospect of having one phone and the ability to check emails, intranet sites and related client info on the enterprise side as well as the personal side where it is private. How many others like me are there out there?

 

 

I can guarantee that rimm is not the only one who can do that. in fact I talked to a guy the other day who works in the mobile industry at the infrastructure level. He says the C suite in USA is virtually 100% IOS. they simply told the CIO "make it work".

 

He said bb would be gone in five years.  if you think that bb10 is some radical new platform that does things other phones can't do, you will likely be bitterly disappointed to learn the truth when the phone is released sometime in late March. :) remember, this is the company that when it released the Playbook, did not even have working email software on it at launch. :)

[stahleyp]

peter/rimm/wellmont, are you actually short rimm or just talking smack?

[Guest wellmont]

it doesn't matter whether I am long short or no position. I am equally Free to post whatever I want! all that matters are ideas. the idea's inventor doesn't matter. the inventor's motive does not matter. that's what I have been trying to get you to realize (to my immense frustration). the ideas are what is important. not where the ideas come from. btw, instead of trying to control the content direction of the thread in a manner that is comforting to your world view, I would love it if you would present an idea about rimm; and actually contribute to the information database! something. anything. :) Perhaps you could start with your rationale for why owning an $8b market cap that is losing money in it's core business is a good idea. I would love to hear something substantive that would make me less bearish about their future. :)

 

[stahleyp]

I've stated my thoughts numerous times throughout the thread.

 

 

you're a unique dude, peter.  ;)

 

 

[Guest wellmont]

lets hear your latest thoughts. give us an update. :)

[stahleyp]

I keep things pretty simple. Truthfully, my margin of safety is pretty much gone now. I figured with their cash hoard, patents, buildings, etc, the stock had to be worth more than what it was trading at previously. That is no longer the case. With that being said, they are still in a growing industry and I wouldn't be too surprised to see Apple missing a few steps. Jobs was a driving force at Apple. In my opinion (perhaps not worth much) he is more important to Apple than Buffett is to Berkshire. I'm making a fairly big assumption that Apple will, potentially make a few missteps. I'm also making an assumption that RIMM can capitalize on those missteps. That might create a huge opportunity for RIMM. Bottom line though is that my margin of safety is now gone. The position is one I'm comfortable with though.

[Guest wellmont]

sounds good. can't disagree with much of what you said. :)

[Guest valueInv]

Leaked BB10 training doc:

http://www.slideshare.net/fullscreen/christopherwparsons/stuff-16015165/1

 

I think wellmont is right that the Marketing team is doing a great job at RIM!  ;D

 

Some info I found interesting:

 

-RIM is targeting people who it says are "hyper connected," have a huge appetite for getting things done using their smartphone, and are "crazy multitaskers"; they believe BB10 can uniquely serve these people

So RIM is going after hyperconnected people that waste time on social networks while having a huge appetite for getting things done?

[txlaw]

crackberry.com is where I read about the larger screen bb10. Hardware matters. it's why Galaxy and Note are pretty much neck and neck with iphone for smartphone supremacy. of course rimm is going to spin and misdirect on the hardware. it's their only option. btw, I would be careful in asserting your belief that there are going to be that many bb10 devices this year. There is a lot of controversy about what exactly rimm means by that. i.e. is it simply different SKUs of the same basic phone? they aren't saying.

 

Well, crackberry posts all the rumors about the new hardware, so I'm not so sure your assertions are accurate then. 

 

Hardware specs don't matter so much as UX.  It's the fact that the innovation gap has closed with respect to UX and features, not the specs, that has allowed Samsung to catch up, in addition to Apple fatigue.  Other than not having NFC, I think the iPhone 5 is still the best phone on the market right now because of iOS 6 and the "mid-range hardware" you complain about.

 

Unlike getting something from crackberry or other blogs, the six BB10 devices number is based on what RIM has actually said.  I don't think they are spinning or misdirecting.  It's clearly not six different SKUs of the phone.  Come on -- you're just trying to misdirect yourself by jumping on them for withholding information on what those phones will look like.

[txlaw]

Leaked BB10 training doc:

http://www.slideshare.net/fullscreen/christopherwparsons/stuff-16015165/1

 

I think wellmont is right that the Marketing team is doing a great job at RIM!  ;D

 

Some info I found interesting:

 

-RIM is targeting people who it says are "hyper connected," have a huge appetite for getting things done using their smartphone, and are "crazy multitaskers"; they believe BB10 can uniquely serve these people

So RIM is going after hyperconnected people that waste time on social networks while having a huge appetite for getting things done?

 

Really?  Not even worth responding with a substantive post.