BB - BlackBerry

[goldfinger]

i have been looking at RIMM

 

if you say nok or rimm. I would buy rimm

 

but if you say rimm or msft, i would buy msft

 

for RIMM I need more of margin of safety, since i can't seem to handicap the risk, so far its in the too hard pile for me. It is temping no doubt.

 

NOK is a far easier choice for me. Win7 gets great reviews in its present iteration, has a huge update coming this fall, and MSFT will put its all into their partnership with Nokia. Nokia knows how to make a great piece of hardware, and they will now have a great piece of software to go with it. RIMM is on its own. As Elop said, it is all about the ecosystem, and RIMM is extinct.

 

Moreover Microsoft franchise really is in the enterprise business. They will come up with technical services and marketing bundles to make the use or purchase of their phones even more enticing to enterprise customers that already use Microsoft technologies. That's going to be tough competition for RIMM.

[rmitz]

Is there a part of RIMM that will do well in the next 10 years-something that has a enduring competitive advantage, say the secure e mail that will have value?

 

Secure Email just isn't worth enough; it may have a moat in government for 10 years, though.  (The technology there just isn't that hard, but getting through the approval process will take a while, and if it isn't a big enough pie...) That leads to a far smaller company.  This could play out very similar to Palm, ending up with someone acquiring them. I think the only real advantages they have are better keyboards and corporate/institutional mindshare.

[tradevestor]

What's next for RIM

http://mobileopportunity.blogspot.com/2011/06/whats-next-for-rim.html

[bargainman]

NOK is a far easier choice for me. Win7 gets great reviews in its present iteration, has a huge update coming this fall, and MSFT will put its all into their partnership with Nokia. Nokia knows how to make a great piece of hardware, and they will now have a great piece of software to go with it. RIMM is on its own. As Elop said, it is all about the ecosystem, and RIMM is extinct.

 

I wouldn't count on it.  Seems like NOK is killing it's pipeline

http://communities-dominate.blogs.com/brands/2011/06/the-patient-heart-has-stopped-now-the-doctor-helps-by-starting-to-strangle-the-patient-too-stephen-e.html

[CONeal]

I really feel RIM can turn this around. Was aware that this year would be as transition peroid, as such not everything would be suger plums and candy canes.

 

Some things I hope occurs over the next few months.

 

1. Split the chairmen and CEO roles.  (actually able to vote for this on the proxy)  Do feel that both CEO's should stay in place to run the company but as such they should be accountable to someone.  Bringing in a new chairman, would also hopefully, give off the perception that they really are doing everything in their power to bring them back to its once dominance.

 

2. Relaunch Playbook once there are several apps that will hold the consumers attention and email support.  US consumers are pretty forgiving when a company comes out and says "We screwed up, take a look at the revamped Playbook and I'm sure you will be blown away."  Needs to be done before the holidays.

 

3. Marketing, Not sure if they cut back on marketing b/c they knew it would be a hard sell without email.  The promotional copy that I have seen needs to be revamped.  The commercials are dull and boring.  Nothing makes me want to jump up and say "that looks AWESOME!!!  Lets go to Best Buy!!"

 

4. Meeting expectations.  If you give a date for a product meet or beat the date (I dont care of your working 24 hours a day).  The constant delays really turn people off.

 

5. Put one of these things in President Obabma's hands when its ready for relaunch.

 

[Myth465]

RIMM inmo should be in survival mode. Not retain margins or the status quo mode. Open up, adapt Android, and also push blackberry apps on all platforms to protect the reoccurring revenue from servers. There is a lot riding on the new launch. If it doesnt work that may be it for them.

[CONeal]

Myth,

 

The Playbook will support Android apps once Adobe Air is in place.  Also, you can use your iTunes account to sync your music to the QNX environment.  Everything that is being done right now with the QNX operating system will hopefully create a large tailwind once the QNX phones are available next year. 

 

RIM has three phones that will be released around late Aug.  Looks like carriers are giving them a hard time since RIM has a way for people to use the Playbook as if the WiFi versions were full 3G versions.  Since carriers would not be able to charge for the data they are not to happy since it cuts into their margins.

 

Keep in mind they still shipped 13 million devices last qtr.  Survival mode would hurt the company in the long term.  They just need to push through the rough couple of quarters as they move over to the platform that will open up new opportunities.  Consumers are very fickle, if a product is made they love, the switchover cost is pretty low.  Currently, 1500 business are reviewing the Playbook, the release was actually at a good time.  Most business are creating budgets for next year, this allows them to work the new device into their budget.

 

[moore_capital54]

My 2 cents on RIMM:

 

1) Current EV is just $12B - If  RIMM is able to produce just 50% of the FCF it has been producing (assuming normalized CAPEX) and earns 3-5% compounded on its current and growing cash hoard, the company's cash position would surpass $12B in just 7 years.

 

2) In terms of a moat, I believe RIMM does have some type of a moat with the business community. RIMM is more bloomberg than any product I know and most sell-side and buy-side guys I personally know carry at least one RIMM, and the ones that like Iphones use that as their "personal" device.

 

At the current valuation Mr. Market is pricing RIMM as the next Nokia/Motorola scenario where the business will not return to grow for a while, and the business will deteriorate rapidly. It is my view that this is an unlikely scenario.

 

 

[Myth465]

Good points CONeal.

 

My issue is I dont think customers care about the best product. Its about whats cool and in, and its winner take all with a strong number 2 and 3. RIMM in my opinion is no longer cool, people simple have to use their products due to corporate policy. Customers are fickle but this is a coinflip. An investor is betting inmo that the new products are a hit. People made the same bet with Motorola and came up short.....

[finetrader]

More and more companies are adopting Iphone (and probably Android as well) as a standard. So this moat is eroding fast..

 

 

 

[DCG]

3. Marketing, Not sure if they cut back on marketing b/c they knew it would be a hard sell without email.  The promotional copy that I have seen needs to be revamped.  The commercials are dull and boring.  Nothing makes me want to jump up and say "that looks AWESOME!!!  Lets go to Best Buy!!"

 

That's a big part of it right there. Their marketing has been as dreadful as their products the last several years. They spent millions on that huge television campaign that just had people dancing around and did not include 1 image of an actual Blackberry. Just another decision that gives me very little confidence in their current management.

 

They need something to set themselves apart. I don't know that loading their devices up with Android app accomplishes that. Right now though, app developers have little reasons to develop for Blackberry (or QNX). If they're going to just basically start making Android devices, I'm guessing companies like HTC will still design better products than RIMM.

 

 

[ragnarisapirate]

does anyone know where we can get stats for companies market shares in the cell phone industry? I am wanting to get an idea how much of a similar situation that RIMM is in, relative to that of Motorola a few years back when the RAZR was being phased out... for, well, blackberries and iphones.

[Guest valueInv]

Here's one from Gartner:

 

http://www.gartner.com/it/page.jsp?id=1543014

[turar]

Here's another article touting iPads. However, it's interesting that 9-10% of consumers still choose Playbook, which just got released.

http://allthingsd.com/20110620/consumers-dont-want-tablets-they-want-ipads/

[Smazz]

I believe that rimm management is in way over it's head. I believe that as long as these two guys run the company the shares will always sell at a huge discount to peers.

The same two guys that built a multi Billion dollar company from scratch?

 

I'll be honest - I smell some kind of underlying hate on here...

[beerbaron]

Here's another article touting iPads. However, it's interesting that 9-10% of consumers still choose Playbook, which just got released.

http://allthingsd.com/20110620/consumers-dont-want-tablets-they-want-ipads/

 

I remember a day when the first thing people said when you bough a computer was: "Did you buy an IBM?" if you were answering that you bough a clone you were looked like some kind of loser. We all know that IBM is still the dominant PC manufacturer and that everybody wants to buy an IBM not a clone.

 

BeerBaron

 

 

[ragnarisapirate]

does anyone know where we can get stats for companies market shares in the cell phone industry? I am wanting to get an idea how much of a similar situation that RIMM is in, relative to that of Motorola a few years back when the RAZR was being phased out... for, well, blackberries and iphones.

 

Those numbers will not give you any insight. Apples to oranges.

 

DW

 

Actually, it is to get an idea of just how fast market share can erode away with a technology environment that is constantly changing... failure to adapt broke MOT up into 2 companies after 2 contentious proxy contests with Carl Icahn. So, while I would agree to you that they certainly are not the same situation, they do have the potential to rhyme.

 

RIMM needs to do something (as MOT failed to do), as Android and Apple are taking over.

[beerbaron]

Yes but you gotta give them credit for the speed at which they can copy a product. They were slow on the phones but pretty fast on the tablet with a 1 year turnaround. That is an incredible accomplishment in the product development world. Altough the execution was not perfect, hats off to RIM.

 

BeerBaron

[Uccmal]

So Rimm can join MSFT, Dell, Nokia, AAPL, Cisco, Xerox,and a whole host of other companies who have had a misstep along the way.  I expect with their backs against the wall they will start to produce fast and soon. 

 

I test drove the Playbook and Ipad.  The Ipad was difficult because it only handles one window at a time but I liked its size.  The Playbook did what I wanted but it is too small.  Neither is as good as the $500 HP laptop I use when out of the house.  A 10" playbook would be ideal.

[CONeal]

Uccmal, ask and you shall receive.  The Playbook is coming out with a 10" version around the holidays. 

[hyten1]

or wait for windows 8, best of both world, a laptop and a tablet

[Smazz]

I believe that rimm management is in way over it's head. I believe that as long as these two guys run the company the shares will always sell at a huge discount to peers.

The same two guys that built a multi Billion dollar company from scratch?

 

I'll be honest - I smell some kind of underlying hate on here...

 

yes. those guys. they didn't see the shift coming when plenty of people told them about it. go back and read how they reacted to the iphone when it first came out.

 

Im doing this with mostly tongue in cheek but do you really expect them to move as fast a jobs and co did when the Mac was going head to head (if you can call it that) with the IBM computer? Yes, I know he left the Co. and Came back after his failures but How long were those overnight sensations dead money?

About RIM, I may be wrong here but i think they more created the messaging craze then jumped on it.

Known as "the company who taught the world to write with their thumbs"

[Guest valueInv]

So Rimm can join MSFT, Dell, Nokia, AAPL, Cisco, Xerox,and a whole host of other companies who have had a misstep along the way.  I expect with their backs against the wall they will start to produce fast and soon. 

 

 

I had the same reasoning when I bought Palm. It was trading very cheap too. Their product looked even better than the iPhone.

Let's just say it wasn't my smartest move :-)

[Rabbitisrich]

So Rimm can join MSFT, Dell, Nokia, AAPL, Cisco, Xerox,and a whole host of other companies who have had a misstep along the way.  I expect with their backs against the wall they will start to produce fast and soon.  

 

I test drove the Playbook and Ipad.  The Ipad was difficult because it only handles one window at a time but I liked its size.  The Playbook did what I wanted but it is too small.  Neither is as good as the $500 HP laptop I use when out of the house.  A 10" playbook would be ideal.

 

If you go back to the 4Q10 conference call, Steve Jobs predicted that your reaction would be widely shared. The whole call is a worthwhile review and it details his thoughts on Apple's competitive advantages vs. Goog, Rimm, and MSFT.

 

We've now passed RIM, and I don't seem them catching up with us in the foreseeable future. They must move beyond their area of strength and comfort into the unfamiliar territory of trying to become a software platform company.

 

I think it's going to be a challenge for them to create a competitive platform and to convince developers to create apps for yet a third software platform after iOS and Android. With 300,000 apps on Apple's App Store, RIM has a high mountain ahead of them to climb.

 

 

[Smazz]

I compare them to the Data General's, Tandem's, and DECs of the world. too young to remember them? Not me.

If I could only be so lucky to not be old enough ;D

 

I dont see the compariso, Apple IMO is a better comparison to some of those names.

Maybe what saved them is they were in a niche area of the PC, not really making alot of $ but enough to keep them around till they hit lightning in a bottle.

RIMM has done what they envisioned to do - if not fast enough thats up for debate. Still early times.

They have a great brand - cult like almost, no debt, are known to be a world leader in what they do.

 

We will most likely live in some interesting times. In this case, i believe in the adage "if it doesnt kill you, it will make you stronger"  But only if you learn from your mistakes, and everyone makes mistakes....