Lazarus Long Posted October 18, 2013 Share Posted October 18, 2013 SD, it's interesting that you're so sanguine about the financing. Thanks for your perspective. I'd feel more comfortable in the arb play if Fairfax was willing to put more cash into the deal (though I can certainly understand why they wouldn't want to do so). PW has said that he wants to run the company as a going concern, so I guess you don't think he's being genuine in saying that or you just think the offers for pieces of BBRY will be too good for to pass up and PW will reconsider. If BBRY is worth more than $9 if it is sold in pieces, the special committee should sell it in pieces and capture that value for all shareholders rather than letting Fairfax capture that value. On another note, for what it's worth, I think the special committee of BBRY's board would have a tough time accepting a bid from Lenovo unless it's at a substantial premium to any other binding offer. The Investment Canada approval would be challenging at best and I don't see CFIUS letting that deal go through with respect to BBRY's U.S. assets. VersaillesinNY, Lazaridis did not increase his stake. The 8% represents his stake combined with Fregin's stake. This was widely misreported in the press. The 13D states that neither Lazaridis nor Fregin has purchased any BBRY shares in the 60 days preceding the filing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SharperDingaan Posted October 18, 2013 Share Posted October 18, 2013 Keep in mind that If PW does the buy, Investment Canada approval is not a factor. PW then just licences the tech to Lenovo, & winds down the support over time. All promises kept. SD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cardboard Posted October 19, 2013 Share Posted October 19, 2013 I think that people here will be very surprised at the final bid on this thing. I hear a lot of talk about piece mealing the business but, this is not how things get done in the world out there. If Fairfax ends up winning at $9, then yes, they will have to sell parts of the business. Same for Cerberus. However, there are too many bidders now with too deep pockets and competing too much against each other to see this kind of stuff. It is an auction after all. Google, Lenovo, Cisco, SAP, Samsung, Microsoft should I keep going? What the Fairfax bid has done is to put a sense of urgency into these guys and at $9, it is very cheap. It has cash, buildings, patents, talent, a profitable business and... a very bad one. For Fairfax to make money on it, they have to do many things right. But, for the giant tech companies, they can buy it, prepare a few nice slides and no one will remember about them buying it in a few months. Who is asking Microsoft about Skype nowadays? Or even Nokia? Does the market care about Motorola losses at Google? These dark holes surely don't appear in their share prices. Cardboard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alertmeipp Posted October 19, 2013 Share Posted October 19, 2013 As you know, signing NDA is far away from actually making a bid. I will be happy to see another bid tho Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rpadebet Posted October 19, 2013 Share Posted October 19, 2013 I hope to see another bid too, and if that happens, I think it will be a lot higher than the current one. But what SD is saying makes a lot of sense. It is better for the buyers to go with PWs bid and then get what they want from him. I don't think other shareholders would be happy with that and I suspect the board will open itself to legal liabilities if they are unable to secure another bid after all this, but from buyer's perspective it is just perfect, especially if they are all interested in different parts. I think SD's scenario has a reasonable chance of playing out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alertmeipp Posted October 19, 2013 Share Posted October 19, 2013 Prem said he will not piece this one out, no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SharperDingaan Posted October 19, 2013 Share Posted October 19, 2013 Keep in mind that the same tech can be licenced to multiple users. A boards defence is that a non-binding LOI was signed, the coy was actively & publicly marketed, & the result was no other bid; hence they accepted the offer as there were no other better choices - including piecemeal asset sales & licencing. It does not mean that their could not be competing bids for the entire company, and it does not preclude bids for just parts of the company, or specific tech licence agreements. Obviously, if RIM itself can make more via asset sales & licencing, the HW bid will be rejected. You get to game the outcome according to your bias, & use options as your instrument of choice. SD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ItsAValueTrap Posted October 19, 2013 Share Posted October 19, 2013 I thought that Blackberry already tried to sell pieces of its business in the past? This almost reminds me of Premier Exhibition, where the company has been trying to sell its Titanic artifacts for a long time. As others have pointed out, the deal with Prem Watsa was extremely one-sided and PW is not putting his money where his mouth is. PW is trying to convince other people to buy the company; Fairfax apparently isn't contributing equity. The board of directors gave him a free option (???they basically gave him free money???). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alertmeipp Posted October 19, 2013 Share Posted October 19, 2013 say if i were google, l won't bid for bbry unless msft bid for it and vica versa. We need a big tech firm to kick this off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tengen Posted October 21, 2013 Share Posted October 21, 2013 Blackberry officially releases BBM app for iPhone and Android: http://blogs.blackberry.com/2013/10/bbm-android-iphone-launch/ Should have happened years ago but better late than never(?). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Palantir Posted October 24, 2013 Share Posted October 24, 2013 Ex-Apple CEO Sculley mulling BlackBerry bid: report http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/10/24/us-blackberry-offer-sculley-idUSBRE99N01Z20131024 ;D Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SI Posted October 29, 2013 Share Posted October 29, 2013 DJ reporting Blackberry meeting with Facebook on potential for deal. You wonder when Amazon's name gets leaked as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rpadebet Posted October 29, 2013 Share Posted October 29, 2013 DJ reporting Blackberry meeting with Facebook on potential for deal. You wonder when Amazon's name gets leaked as well. This late in the time window PW gave them, looking for new suitors doesn't bode well for the chances of a deal IMO. If there was a willing buyer one would expect someone to come forward by around now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SI Posted October 29, 2013 Share Posted October 29, 2013 If you want a great deal on a car / house / business you would wait until the last minute when your seller is weakest before doing anything. We have no idea what is being done behind closed doors but if I am Jeff Bezos, Waterloo isn't getting a call until the end of the auction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
plato1976 Posted November 1, 2013 Share Posted November 1, 2013 Guys, the spread is pretty big now... The market is telling us that prem has trouble to close the deal Even if he has trouble to have the finance ready by Monday, I feel the chance is he will get ready eventually. His reputation is now on the table. If you want a great deal on a car / house / business you would wait until the last minute when your seller is weakest before doing anything. We have no idea what is being done behind closed doors but if I am Jeff Bezos, Waterloo isn't getting a call until the end of the auction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest wellmont Posted November 1, 2013 Share Posted November 1, 2013 Guys, the spread is pretty big now... The market is telling us that prem has trouble to close the deal Even if he has trouble to have the finance ready by Monday, I feel the chance is he will get ready eventually. His reputation is now on the table. If you want a great deal on a car / house / business you would wait until the last minute when your seller is weakest before doing anything. We have no idea what is being done behind closed doors but if I am Jeff Bezos, Waterloo isn't getting a call until the end of the auction. His reputation will not be harmed one bit if he buys it at $8.25. His reputation is not dependent on him closing the bbry deal at $9. The market is telling you there is little to no interest in these assets at anything north of $8.5-$9. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmichaud Posted November 1, 2013 Share Posted November 1, 2013 In today's day and age of insider trading, how the f$ck is the market possibly off by this much this close to a deal? A 15% unannualized return? It would be one thing if the market was just discounting it taking longer than originally thought to get a deal done - i.e. the company announces it is exploring strategic initiatives, stock pops, then drops once the market is disappointed it isn't happening quicker (exactly how Cardboard projected when BBRY announced it was looking to pursue a sale back in August or whatever) - but 15% right in the face of a deadline? I don't get it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisdom Posted November 1, 2013 Share Posted November 1, 2013 http://www.theverge.com/2013/11/1/5055586/mike-lazaridis-reportedly-working-with-cerberus-on-blackberry-buyout Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SI Posted November 1, 2013 Share Posted November 1, 2013 QCOM reportedly in talks to finance this founders / Cerereus consortium IF they bid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gfp Posted November 1, 2013 Share Posted November 1, 2013 http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-11-01/fairfax-said-short-of-blackberry-bid-financing-as-deadline-looms.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yours Truly Posted November 1, 2013 Share Posted November 1, 2013 http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-11-01/fairfax-said-short-of-blackberry-bid-financing-as-deadline-looms.html I worry about PW's reputation if this doesn't pan out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yours Truly Posted November 1, 2013 Share Posted November 1, 2013 BlackBerry Ltd co-founders, Cerberus, chipmaker Qualcomm reportedly discussing joint bid http://business.financialpost.com/2013/11/01/blackberry-ltd-cerberus-bid/?__lsa=d5a1-a3eb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cardboard Posted November 2, 2013 Share Posted November 2, 2013 "I worry about PW's reputation if this doesn't pan out" If he does not come out with the $9 bid in cash by Monday, no matter what Cerberus does, then Fairfax is toast in terms of ever being an acquirer a la Berkshire. Public statements about never renegotiating a deal in 28 years and being very confident to have the money will stick forever. If I was him, I would be much more tempted to break the promise made to shareholders to not increase its capital investment in Blackberry than walking away or lowering the bid. The cost to Fairfax longer term would be much lower than destroying its reputation to come out good on a bid especially since BBRY broken up or turned around will be worth the $9. Cardboard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
plato1976 Posted November 2, 2013 Share Posted November 2, 2013 The question is how much more cash will FFH commit in this case ? 1 more billion ? Either way it's quite a risk for FFH "I worry about PW's reputation if this doesn't pan out" If he does not come out with the $9 bid in cash by Monday, no matter what Cerberus does, then Fairfax is toast in terms of ever being an acquirer a la Berkshire. Public statements about never renegotiating a deal in 28 years and being very confident to have the money will stick forever. If I was him, I would be much more tempted to break the promise made to shareholders to not increase its capital investment in Blackberry than walking away or lowering the bid. The cost to Fairfax longer term would be much lower than destroying its reputation to come out good on a bid especially since BBRY broken up or turned around will be worth the $9. Cardboard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alertmeipp Posted November 2, 2013 Share Posted November 2, 2013 Expect to see some -ve articles on Prem if the deal fails, especially after the recent Q on FFH and what he had been saying about how confidence he is on getting the deal done and he had more than need, etc... Thumb up for his effort tho.. Really disappointed that the government did nothing to help its own iconic tech company in this mess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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