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Guest valueInv

Do Wellmont and valueinv have any thoughts on this article detailing why BBRY is entirely different post-Foxconn deal?

 

My guess is Sanjeev was loading up at the recent bottom, as he has not commented on the stock in awhile....

 

One more thing, it iS a classic financial shenanigan for a new CEO to take a bigger write down than necessary. I won't be surprised to be better earnings for the next few quarters.

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Very helpful! Thanks. Was curious what you thought.

 

I wonder if the move from 6 to 9 isn't a classic case of any business at the right price. Even if you are right that there is no viable business going forward, given the cash, patents and some potential run off value, maybe it just got too cheap at 6.

 

But then again, as Wellmont pointed out awhile back, why would they raise more cash if there weren't more write downs coming? Bizarre  all the way around.

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"I don't see it. I don't see anybody wanting bbry phones. "

 

This comment really confused me as the way I read it the whole point of the article was that BB is moving away from devices and it was laying out their strategy to shift their focus to where they felt their expertise was. In fact, many posters have long been criticsing BB for not doing this before now. Did I miss something?

 

I'm not familiar with the reputation of Citron where this article appeared but it certainly seemed to have an effect on share price as it moved by over 6% on Friday.

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Guest wellmont

Chen specifically stated bbry is Not exiting devices. Yes they are "shifting" focus. That decision, to shift focus, was forced upon them by the complete failure of the TH strategy. Chen is taking baby steps away from the device business. Eventually he will exit the business entirely. At that point nobody will care. Which is why he is doing it this way, and not the way Nokia exited Symbian devices.

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Guest wellmont

Very helpful! Thanks. Was curious what you thought.

 

I wonder if the move from 6 to 9 isn't a classic case of any business at the right price. Even if you are right that there is no viable business going forward, given the cash, patents and some potential run off value, maybe it just got too cheap at 6.

 

But then again, as Wellmont pointed out awhile back, why would they raise more cash if there weren't more write downs coming? Bizarre  all the way around.

 

having earnings would be bad for this stock. then you would have to put a multiple on it. As a side not, I did not say there was no viable business going forward. I said the device business (phones) was not viable. bbry phones will be artifacts like the Moto Razr is now. I see bbry as a cash rich start up focused on enterprise software. Something viable may indeed emerge from the company. There just isn't anything quantifiable at the moment, beyond mobile device management.

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Guest valueInv

"I don't see it. I don't see anybody wanting bbry phones. "

 

This comment really confused me as the way I read it the whole point of the article was that BB is moving away from devices and it was laying out their strategy to shift their focus to where they felt their expertise was. In fact, many posters have long been criticsing BB for not doing this before now. Did I miss something?

 

I'm not familiar with the reputation of Citron where this article appeared but it certainly seemed to have an effect on share price as it moved by over 6% on Friday.

 

Wellmont did not read the article. Or at least he read only the parts he wanted to.

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Guest valueInv

Very helpful! Thanks. Was curious what you thought.

 

I wonder if the move from 6 to 9 isn't a classic case of any business at the right price. Even if you are right that there is no viable business going forward, given the cash, patents and some potential run off value, maybe it just got too cheap at 6.

 

But then again, as Wellmont pointed out awhile back, why would they raise more cash if there weren't more write downs coming? Bizarre  all the way around.

 

My comments are on the analysis presented. BBRY may well be a cigar butt, but I have yet to see anyone present a coherent thesis on that.

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Guest valueInv

BBRY up 11% on the TSX this morning on the back of Citron report. FFH's converts are in the money!

 

I don't get it. Why is this stick so easy to manipulate? What happened to EMT?

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Interesting that Blackberry's improved valuation has so little effect on Fairfax's share price. With the $500m convertible notes in the money, Fairfax basically has 100m shares, i.e. $1.1 billion worth; Fairfax has a total market cap of $9.6B, so over 11% of Fairfax is Blackberry. With BB shares up over 60% from about $6.50 in mid-December to $10.80 at today's close, I would have expected a bit more than Fairfax's 1-2% rise in that time, especially considering the other >10% stake, Bank of Ireland, now up to $1.4B after an increase of about 20-25% in the last month.

 

For all the talk of how disastrous the RIM/BB bet has been, it has put Fairfax about $350M in the hole, while the IRE position is up about $1B. Of course the pain from the equity hedges goes on, but the S&P is only up about 2% in the last month, so it seems like the recent good news in the Fairfax portfolio (even Abitibi/Resolute is up!) isn't showing up in Fairfax's share price.

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VMware buying AirWatch for $1.5 billion.

 

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/01/22/us-vmware-acquisition-idUSBREA0L0WY20140122

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-01-22/vmware-to-add-mobile-security-with-1-54-billion-airwatch-deal.html

 

That might have something to do with today's move, though I have no idea why the price action has been the way it has been over the last few weeks.

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  • 3 weeks later...
The executive in charge of BlackBerry Ltd. BB.T -0.55% 's instant-messaging tool, BBM, has left the company, creating a hole in one of the smartphone company's core offerings.

 

Andrew Bocking, executive vice president in charge of BBM, "has made the decision to leave" the company, according to a BlackBerry spokeswoman.

 

 

http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB10001424052702303650204579375180075991694?mod=WSJ_hp_LEFTWhatsNewsCollection

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Given recent events, this article from September 2013 is more interesting now:

 

http://www.theguardian.com/technology/appsblog/2013/sep/24/blackberry-bbm-iphone-android-relevance

 

Both paths hold out considerable opportunities. ScotiaBank analyst Gus Papageorgiou recently estimated that BBM could add $5 to BlackBerry's share price by growing its user base from 60m to 250m people, and bringing in $300m a year from in-app advertising – with a valuation of $2.7bn if BBM was a standalone business.

 

And today...

 

http://blogs.wsj.com/corporate-intelligence/2014/02/19/facebooks-whatsapp-price-tag-19-billion/

 

At last count of the company’s 55 staff, that’s a cool $345 million per employee.

 

On the other hand, WhatsApp’s 450 million active users are being bought by Facebook for a more modest $42 each. That’s more than the $30 per user Facebook paid when it bought Instagram and its 33 million users for $1 billion back in 2012.

 

Interesting...

 

 

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http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2014/02/19/is-blackberry-messenger-worth-something.aspx

 

Just last week, messaging app Viber -- which has about 300 million registered users -- was acquired for $900 million. Viber's user base is strongly concentrated in developing countries, meaning that it may be worth significantly less on a per-user basis than BBM. Viber did not generate any revenue until last year, and its annual revenue is probably still a nominal amount.
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I started using BBM on my IPhone. It is way better than Viber, Skype and the Iohone text messaging. I particularly like how you can easily make groups and you can see if your recipient has received or read your message. Try it out. The downside so far is not many of my contacts use it so you send them an automated text to accept your contact and to download the app if you do not have it. There are obvious network advantages depending who gets to dominate this space. Longer distance WiFi is just rolling out. In Vancouver Shaw Open now gives you Wifi in most commercial areas which comes on automatically once you set it up and avoids the hassles and restrictions of public wifi like at Starbucks. The bandwidth goes on your home account. You need the wifi for the voice calling like Skype. Does anyone know if the BBM voice calls are the same, less secure or more secure then cell phone calls or Skype calls?

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John Chen in Globe and Mail:

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/rob-magazine/john-chens-simple-plan-to-save-blackberry/article17065516/

 

Chen interviewed by Re/Code at MWC:

http://recode.net/2014/01/10/ailing-blackberry-is-a-patient-that-can-be-cured-says-ceo-john-chen/

 

And on CNBC:

http://www.cnbc.com/id/101442251

 

BES 12 to be released by EOY, which will allow management of both BB10 and BB7 devices, and will add Win 8 devices support in addition to existing iOS and Android device management support.

http://press.blackberry.com/press/2014/blackberry-introduces-bes12-as-the-new-foundation-for-enterprise.html

http://www.networkworld.com/news/2014/022514-blackberry-ceo-says-here-to-279123.html

 

eBBM announced with BBM Protected being first product released in the suite:

http://press.blackberry.com/press/2014/blackberry-to-launch-ebbm-suite-for-enterprise-customers.html

 

Chen is doing a fantastic job.

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