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Guest wellmont

anyone think Lenovo will be allowed to buy bbry handset business?

 

seems like a good brand to be have in Asian.

 

bbry is going to release keyboard phones. why I couldn't tell you. lenovo is set with MOTO. I really think this device business is just going to ride off into the sunset...once current bbry CEO finishes "preparing" everybody.

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I think John Chen clearly was quoted out of context. I think he meant  that he wanted to stay in the device business. It was obvious to me when I read about it.

But I agree John Chen need to shut up and focus on execution. Everytime he was interviewed by media, the stock went down. He talks too much.

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http://www.ctvnews.ca/business/blackberry-buys-stake-in-u-s-based-nanthealth-1.1776792

 

BlackBerry (TSX:BB) says it has bought a stake in U.S.-based healthcare IT company NantHealth, a move that will allow the smartphone maker to use its expertise in network security and real-time operating systems in hospitals.

 

The Waterloo, Ont., company said the companies will collaborate on government privacy-certified clinical systems that will allow health-care professionals to securely share information and deliver care efficiently.

Financial terms of the deal were not disclosed.

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I think John Chen clearly was quoted out of context. I think he meant  that he wanted to stay in the device business.

 

Actually I think he was just honest, and blunt.  Why would Blackberry stick with a money losing business?  For a few more quarters or a couple more years maybe to try to turn it around, but if the business is dead, it's dead.  If handsets continue to lose money and they stick with them the entire company might go out of business.

 

I think the blowback occurred because a battle Blackberry has been fighting is that people don't buy their handsets because of turmoil at the company and questions about their commitment to them, and his comments made that worse, not better.  So he had to back track a bit.  He needs to tell his execs that they might get out of the handset business, but not the public.

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BlackBerry (TSX:BB) says it has bought a stake in U.S.-based healthcare IT company NantHealth, a move that will allow the smartphone maker to use its expertise in network security and real-time operating systems in hospitals

 

I think this is interesting and a good opportunity for Blackberry.  Health care organizations like hospitals have very high reliability and security requirements for their handheld devices, far beyond what a typical out-of-the-box iPhone or Android can deliver.  It requires software and hardware on the handset, as well as substantial back-end software support.

 

I know some people that work at Cerner and are on a project trying to bring iOS devices to hospitals.  The devices use the hospital's WiFi network, which is enhanced and has been tested to meet reliability and security standards.  The way the devices change WiFi hot spots has to be changed.  Voice calls and text messages actually go over WiFi instead of the cell network, since it is more reliable and secure.  The phone must have secure access to patient records which requires a secure private cloud, etc.

 

Blackberry has advantages over iOS and Android here, and systems like WhatsApp would never be considered for this because they are not secure.  I think this can be an interesting investment for them.

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Official press release:

http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1070235/000107023514000047/pr041514.htm

 

Key excerpts

 

The NantHealth platform is installed at approximately 250 hospitals, and connects more than 16,000 medical devices collecting more than 3 billion vital signs annually.

 

. . .

 

“The future of the healthcare industry requires the ability to share information securely and quickly, whether device-to-device or doctor-to-doctor anywhere and at any time. The potential to integrate BlackBerry's secure mobile communications, along with the company’s QNX embedded technology, will put the power of a supercomputer in the palm of the caregiver's hand. Providing actionable information at the time of need will significantly improve the efficiency of healthcare and, more importantly, the efficacy of care for the patient.”

 

. . .

 

Details of the intended collaboration are being developed, but Chen and Soon-Shiong said they see significant opportunities because:

 

•  QNX is established as a real-time embedded operating system for mission-critical medical diagnostic and monitoring devices in hospitals and homecare environments;

 

•  BBM Protected is an upcoming, secure communication platform that could connect healthcare providers, field service workers, emergency personnel, patients and family members;

 

•  NantHealth's Clinical Operating System (cOS™) platform is the first operating system of its kind in healthcare.  The platform integrates the knowledge base with the delivery system and the payment system, enabling 21st century coordinated care at a lower cost;

 

•  NantHealth and BlackBerry can combine secure cloud-based and supercomputing services to provide data integration, decision support and analytics; and

 

•  BlackBerry’s devices are the global standard for secure communication and collaboration.

 

 

 

 

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I really, really like this development --

 

I know most Canadian medical offices still fax things - from referral to prescription to request for CT scan, etc -- would be nice to communicate all this on the secure platform offered by BB where privacy & efficiency are critical.  Now whether this can mean profit is another story. 

 

I never really understood how John can be effective from California though.  And flying corporate jet is a waste of money.

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I read this book "Who Says Elephants Can't Dance: Inside IBM's Historic Turnaround". before I bought BBRY.

Buffett mentioned he read this book twice.

I think I recalled  John Chen mentioned about IBM in one of his interviews.

 

The book talked about how IBM couldn't sell its expensive systems, facing competitions from cheaper PC. The new CEO turned around IBM by focusing on its corporate customers and providing IT consulting services instead. Appears similar to what BBRY is trying to do.

 

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  • 2 weeks later...
  • 2 weeks later...

Now this is interesting:

 

http://press.blackberry.com/press/2014/blackberry-opens-blackberry-10-operating-system-to-multiple-mdm-.html

 

http://bizblog.blackberry.com/2014/05/qa-with-john-sims-why-we-decided-to-open-our-blackberry-10-operating-system/

 

BBRY continues to modularize the various service and software offerings it provides in order to fully maximize the value of its IoT and M2M related technology assets. 

 

I continue to be highly impressed by John Chen.

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Guest Dazel

 

Why is it interesting?

Is there a way to monetize it? I am seeing the devices literally fall off a cliff...even the diehards that loved the crack berries are changing...one in particular is a friend of Balisilie's and he has moved to Apple!

So how do they monetize their other assets?

 

Dazel.

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John Chen is really pitching Blackberry's MDM and QNX technologies. Does anyone have numbers on how big these businesses currently are? My sense is that while promising, these are small businesses within BBRY. It will take these a significant amount of time, hard work and luck to grow them to the scale of the handset business in BBRY .

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Let's be realistic, Blackberry 10 is dead as a consumer platform but it is an integral part of BBRY's more defensible areas. BBRY is trying to pivot into areas that they have some defensible edge. QNX faces competition from a lot competition and the high end car infotainment market is small to begin with. MDM (mobile device management) is very high end/complex to implement therefore applications are probably limited to financial services and government where high level of securities are required. BBRY wants to compete in low and mid range MDM markets but the competition is intense. BBM and its recent medical service acquisition are very similar where most of its monetization potential lies in high security applications. BBRY is known for its security and it does have highly defensible niche markets. The key risk is that BBRY does have a large revenue base to replace and it is dropping quickly. How long will the equalization process take (rate of decreases in devices sales = rate of increases in BBM, MDM, and medical sales)? How much cash will it burn before the process completes? Those are the two key unknowns. 

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Why is it interesting?

Is there a way to monetize it? I am seeing the devices literally fall off a cliff...even the diehards that loved the crack berries are changing...one in particular is a friend of Balisilie's and he has moved to Apple!

So how do they monetize their other assets?

 

Dazel.

 

It's interesting because they are allowing their MDM competitors (Blackberry's BES competes with Airwatch, Citrix, Good, etc.) to directly manage BB10 devices.  So that means that finance cos, healthcare cos, and other organizations that have BB10 devices in their device portfolio will now be better able to switch away from BES to a competing solution.

 

Why would they do this?  The announcement + the blog post I linked to suggests that they are working with their MDM competitors to go even more "cross platform" with the software and service offerings they're working on.  We might even see these MDM competitors incorporate or bundle BBRY services/software into their own offerings (beyond merely supporting BB10 devices).  Hence the reference to the new "frontier" being "applications, data and the Internet of Things."  This also potentially indicates a future separation of the MDM business from BBRY's asset portfolio.  VMWare bought AirWatch for $1.5 billion.  BES could potentially be rolled up into AirWatch or another competitor.  While there could be a side benefit of selling more BB10 devices by allowing direct management by Airwatch et al, I wouldn't hold my breath for that one -- we all know that BB10 is pretty marginalized at this point, though it is still used in organizations where security is paramount.

 

So it's a very interesting strategic move on BBRY's part. 

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Guest Dazel

 

 

Thanks.

Ok so if we head to be part of the cloud application business....we are not going to make any money....we are going to build it up to sell it to IBM? So we will not see "any" positive balance sheet or cash movements...is that correct ?

We try to pay the lights with legacy business...sell handset business to Lenovo...and head towards software and security?

There has to be a grand plan for Fairfax to bet the farm...what is it?

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Thanks.

Ok so if we head to be part of the cloud application business....we are not going to make any money....we are going to build it up to sell it to IBM? So we will not see "any" positive balance sheet or cash movements...is that correct ?

We try to pay the lights with legacy business...sell handset business to Lenovo...and head towards software and security?

There has to be a grand plan for Fairfax to bet the farm...what is it?

 

I think you may have to read a bit more of the thread if you want to get a sense of the assets that BBRY owns and what can be done with them.  Because I'm not getting pulled into this again . . .

 

But the short story is that handset/OS is being commoditized and value is shifting to software and services.  BBRY has assets related to secure, efficient data transfer and protection -- perfect for a world where anything could be connected to the communications networks (IoT).  Plus other assets that could be sold off.  Hence the notion of "break up" value.  It's up to the investor to determine what break up value is.

 

As to FFH position size, I can't speak to it.  I certainly wouldn't be betting the farm on a company like BBRY.  Personally, I think they probably overestimated break up value due to patent portfolio sale comps.  I also overestimated break up value, but that was because I wasn't pessimistic enough about value burn by management.

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I spent a lot of time on this name in the past... including meeting with their mangers in Asia. I knew from what I learned it was a badly run company by Heins. They didn't know marketing. Not listening to local market needs... etc.

 

Hopefully with John Chen this will change.

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