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What's your valuation estimate on the software and services side of BBRY? I can't see any breakdowns of that in their SEC filings. It is all mixed with the phone results.

 

Have no idea. I'm just betting on the jockey on this one.

Maybe someone else can help?

 

Haven't done any valuation of software/services, but in the investor day they broke out the estimated decline in SAF revenues and their expected software revenues for the next two years. Slides attached

bbry_nov_investor_day.pdf

bbry_nov_investor_day.pdf

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What's your valuation estimate on the software and services side of BBRY? I can't see any breakdowns of that in their SEC filings. It is all mixed with the phone results.

 

Have no idea. I'm just betting on the jockey on this one.

Maybe someone else can help?

 

Haven't done any valuation of software/services, but in the investor day they broke out the estimated decline in SAF revenues and their expected software revenues for the next two years. Slides attached

 

I have no problem understanding the blue sky upside. :)

I have no clue to figure out what is the downside. Can anyone help me with that please?

 

On the other hand, it seems like BlackBerry passport is well received. Is there a way to get some clues about its sales data?

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On the other hand, it seems like BlackBerry passport is well received. Is there a way to get some clues about its sales data?

 

I would take Amazon review of the Total Z10/Z10 Amazon Reviews. That would give you a multiplier of reviews per items bought.

 

I would then take that multiplier and apply it on the # of Passport reviews. Very dirty but at least it's unbiased.

 

BeerBaron

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Earnings are in.  Almost at a profit.

 

Notable news.

 

1) In 3 days, 200,000 Blackberry Passorts have been sold.

2) In November, $200 million in quarterly royalty payments to Adobe disappear.

3) Further down the pipe, all the free conversions to BES10 will no longer be free.  Not sure of date but I think it is February some time.

4) BES 12 is around the corner.

5) New Device concept being shown this quarter or next.  I forget the venue but could look it up.  Z10 replacement I would hope.

 

Not investing related unless you care about anecdotes:  My wife has the Z30 and quite honestly, I don't think I want a 5" screen.  I'd love to get a Z10 refresh with maybe an extra 0.1" on the diagonal.  Dare I say it, the Passport is damned tempting to get.  The problem for me though is that I am a runner and can't imagine having it in my armband.  If I wasn't a runner, I'd consider it.

 

Where did you get the Adobe royalty numbers? I can't find it anywhere in the 2015 Q2 earning discussions.

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I am interested in BBRY now. What do you think is BBM worth? We all know that What's app and WeChat are worth a lot, probably $20 bn or more. I don't think they are as secure as BBM.

How much is QNX worth?

 

vxWorks, another RTOS similar to QNX, were bought by Intel in 2010 for $884m

 

In the latest Goldman Sachs' research, they calculated sum-of-parts as following:

 

BBM 728m

QNX 500

IP  2398

Cash 1835

total 4961

 

But i never found GS's research is right. Actually i think their research stink.

 

http://google.brand.edgar-online.com/displayfilinginfo.aspx?FilingID=10220841-897-54268&type=sect&TabIndex=2&companyid=4839&ppu=%252fdefault.aspx%253fsym%253dBBRY

 

Cash seems to be around $3.1 bn, as John Chen said in the conference call. I think he meant cash + short term investments plus long term investments?

How confident are you about the IP's worth?

Note there is also the 3 bn liability on the balance sheet.

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I am interested in BBRY now. What do you think is BBM worth? We all know that What's app and WeChat are worth a lot, probably $20 bn or more. I don't think they are as secure as BBM.

How much is QNX worth?

 

vxWorks, another RTOS similar to QNX, were bought by Intel in 2010 for $884m

 

In the latest Goldman Sachs' research, they calculated sum-of-parts as following:

 

BBM 728m

QNX 500

IP  2398

Cash 1835

total 4961

 

But i never found GS's research is right. Actually i think their research stink.

 

http://google.brand.edgar-online.com/displayfilinginfo.aspx?FilingID=10220841-897-54268&type=sect&TabIndex=2&companyid=4839&ppu=%252fdefault.aspx%253fsym%253dBBRY

 

Cash seems to be around $3.1 bn, as John Chen said in the conference call. I think he meant cash + short term investments plus long term investments?

How confident are you about the IP's worth?

Note there is also the 3 bn liability on the balance sheet.

 

the liability is mostly the convert bond owned by fairfax. as stock go higher, it shall be viewed more like an equity insurance rather than debt.

no idea about the IP's worth. I guess it's only meaningful if they get an buyout offer.

I feel the chinese clearly wanted to buy bbry if they could. But Cisco or IBM can be a good buyer too. IBM can buy BBRY's BES and offer to all its customers globally.

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Earnings are in.  Almost at a profit.

 

Notable news.

 

1) In 3 days, 200,000 Blackberry Passorts have been sold.

2) In November, $200 million in quarterly royalty payments to Adobe disappear.

3) Further down the pipe, all the free conversions to BES10 will no longer be free.  Not sure of date but I think it is February some time.

4) BES 12 is around the corner.

5) New Device concept being shown this quarter or next.  I forget the venue but could look it up.  Z10 replacement I would hope.

 

Not investing related unless you care about anecdotes:  My wife has the Z30 and quite honestly, I don't think I want a 5" screen.  I'd love to get a Z10 refresh with maybe an extra 0.1" on the diagonal.  Dare I say it, the Passport is damned tempting to get.  The problem for me though is that I am a runner and can't imagine having it in my armband.  If I wasn't a runner, I'd consider it.

 

http://www.berryreview.com/2014/02/04/blackberry-to-lower-patent-royalty-expenses-later-this-year/

 

This is the only info I could find about the Adobe royalty. Where did you get that $200 m per quarter number? Does this imply that if BBRY could break even this quarter, they could make $200 m next quarter? That would be quite a bit, if true.

I can't find anything about BBRY's 2016 earnings guidance. Can you? I assume this $800 m per year would have already been reflected in their 2016 earnings guidance.

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Why are SAF revenues declining so quickly? Isn't the MDM market growing steadily?

 

I already replied in the above thread.  :)

They said they are changing to subscription model, which will result in much less immediate revenue but stronger long term revenue.

I have no idea if their words can be taken at face value and I have no idea if that is the entire cause of the revenue drop.

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Someone PMed me about the royalty payments that end on November.  (EDIT: I see the post above.  Thanks for PMing me as I don't frequent the forums a lot)

 

Here is the source:

http://www.berryreview.com/2014/02/04/blackberry-to-lower-patent-royalty-expenses-later-this-year/

 

And the key take away:

We have been hearing about how John Chen plans to clean up BlackBerry’s business model. Now CIBC World Markets analyst Todd Coupland  sat down with BlackBerry’s CFO, James Yersh, to discuss the details.

........

Mainly BlackBerry has some fixed contracts for patent royalties that expire this November and total about $800 million. Yersh expects them to be zero next year along with a large reduction in the variable royalties BlackBerry pays which total out $200 million due to a lower number of devices selling.

 

 

 

I am constantly amazed at how this company is shorted as heavily as it is.

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https://tradeup.blackberry.com/en/ca/web/passport.html

 

How does this work? This doesn't seem to be different from selling my iphone on Amazon and buying the blackberry, right? I just tried and it offered to pay $275 to me. Selling on Amazon will only get me about $90, so that's better.

 

I haven't seen any BlackBerry phones. Is there any physical store that I can go to and take a look?

 

What country are you in?  In the USA it is hit and miss.  Sadly, in the USA you have to ask that they have one in the back room and hope to get lucky.  Your best bet is probably to go to the crackberry forums and ask someone near you for a demo if in the USA.  You can see them in other countries (Canada, India, etc) quite easily.

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muscleman,

 

BBRYs downside exists.  How much downside?  Depends on when they would pull the plug altogether.  A lot has to go wrong with the downside though.  There is QNX, BES, the infotainment market, internet of things, realization that BYOD costs more than just giving your employee a phone of your choice that meats business criteria, Nanthealth deal, etc.  Ya, all anecdotal ... I know.

 

Even if the smartphone market disappears entirely, BBRY still has a lot of potential.

 

Actually, you could probably get a BB10 phone via Amazon and return it when done playing with it (depending on return policy).

 

Investing in BBRY is part knowing the company and what it does. And having some conviction in the idea that BBRY can do well long term.

 

Having John Chen on board as CEO doesn't hurt.  He reminds me of Warren Buffett.  In terms of downside, if a segment that BBRY is not making money and he expects it to not make money, he'll close up that part of the company instead of bleeding money.  Worse case is that they take 50% of the things they do and stop doing it and create positive free cash flows with the other 50%.

 

Chen might even make an Android device if it is warranted.  Cross sell a better Android device in terms of security with BES 12.

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Someone PMed me about the royalty payments that end on November.  (EDIT: I see the post above.  Thanks for PMing me as I don't frequent the forums a lot)

 

Here is the source:

http://www.berryreview.com/2014/02/04/blackberry-to-lower-patent-royalty-expenses-later-this-year/

 

And the key take away:

We have been hearing about how John Chen plans to clean up BlackBerry’s business model. Now CIBC World Markets analyst Todd Coupland  sat down with BlackBerry’s CFO, James Yersh, to discuss the details.

........

Mainly BlackBerry has some fixed contracts for patent royalties that expire this November and total about $800 million. Yersh expects them to be zero next year along with a large reduction in the variable royalties BlackBerry pays which total out $200 million due to a lower number of devices selling.

 

 

 

I am constantly amazed at how this company is shorted as heavily as it is.

 

http://seekingalpha.com/article/2696675-is-blackberry-actually-going-to-save-800-million-in-intellectual-property-costs

 

I searched around for more info about the royalty and found this. It is very hard to understand. Why is the actual cash flow impact only $300 million?

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muscleman,

 

BBRYs downside exists.  How much downside?  Depends on when they would pull the plug altogether.  A lot has to go wrong with the downside though.  There is QNX, BES, the infotainment market, internet of things, realization that BYOD costs more than just giving your employee a phone of your choice that meats business criteria, Nanthealth deal, etc.  Ya, all anecdotal ... I know.

 

Even if the smartphone market disappears entirely, BBRY still has a lot of potential.

 

Actually, you could probably get a BB10 phone via Amazon and return it when done playing with it (depending on return policy).

 

Investing in BBRY is part knowing the company and what it does. And having some conviction in the idea that BBRY can do well long term.

 

Having John Chen on board as CEO doesn't hurt.  He reminds me of Warren Buffett.  In terms of downside, if a segment that BBRY is not making money and he expects it to not make money, he'll close up that part of the company instead of bleeding money.  Worse case is that they take 50% of the things they do and stop doing it and create positive free cash flows with the other 50%.

 

Chen might even make an Android device if it is warranted.  Cross sell a better Android device in terms of security with BES 12.

 

As far as potential downside, this VIC article gives a decent estimate of the liquidation value of BBRY's various assets: http://www.valueinvestorsclub.com/idea/BLACKBERRY_LTD/118448

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muscleman,

 

BBRYs downside exists.  How much downside?  Depends on when they would pull the plug altogether.  A lot has to go wrong with the downside though.  There is QNX, BES, the infotainment market, internet of things, realization that BYOD costs more than just giving your employee a phone of your choice that meats business criteria, Nanthealth deal, etc.  Ya, all anecdotal ... I know.

 

Even if the smartphone market disappears entirely, BBRY still has a lot of potential.

 

Actually, you could probably get a BB10 phone via Amazon and return it when done playing with it (depending on return policy).

 

Investing in BBRY is part knowing the company and what it does. And having some conviction in the idea that BBRY can do well long term.

 

Having John Chen on board as CEO doesn't hurt.  He reminds me of Warren Buffett.  In terms of downside, if a segment that BBRY is not making money and he expects it to not make money, he'll close up that part of the company instead of bleeding money.  Worse case is that they take 50% of the things they do and stop doing it and create positive free cash flows with the other 50%.

 

Chen might even make an Android device if it is warranted.  Cross sell a better Android device in terms of security with BES 12.

 

As far as potential downside, this VIC article gives a decent estimate of the liquidation value of BBRY's various assets: http://www.valueinvestorsclub.com/idea/BLACKBERRY_LTD/118448

 

Thanks a lot!

Regarding the $800 million royalty, I think http://seekingalpha.com/article/2696675-is-blackberry-actually-going-to-save-800-million-in-intellectual-property-costs

makes a lot of sense to me now. What it says is that the current 2015 Q2 break even results already reflected some of the royalty expiring effects. It is not like they keep paying 200 million per quarter and suddenly it stopped in November.

it is more like they gradually slowed down paying royalties and in November it came to zero.

Therefore if everything stays the same, BBRY should be able to report $200 million net income next year.

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Thanks for the value walk link.  I am basically assuming downisde risk of zero if BBRY just folds up shop and liquidates.  But I think the probably of that is rediculoulsly low. I accept zero knowing that reality is probably a few bucks thrown at me in liquidation.

 

Keep shareholder dilution in mind!  Fairfax has convertible debt that will increase share count by 50% if exercised.  Farifax is bascially collecting a fat yield on debt and if Chen does well, tey will convert to stock and make an absolute killing.  I think the same thing is going to happen with SD.

 

I've been in BBRY for two years and have basically watched everything happen.  Thorsten was the right CEO.  He did alot correctly.  He wasn't perfect but left BBRY in better shape than he started with.  He did well getting BB10 out among other things.  Now Chen is in and is making some very key moves.  I make no hesitation saying that I htink Chen is like Buffett.  They guy's mannerisms remind me of Bufffett with his happiness and joking.  And he doesn't act like a politiican.  He states where BBRY is right now and is very transparent.  You can say that of less than 10% of CEOs.  He even came in and said that he thinks that there was a 20% of survival.  A few months later he said 50%.  I think at this point he'd say 90%.  He's been honest all along.  Chen should have replaced Throsten about 3-6 months earlier but that's hindsight.

 

I basically don't see liquidation happening.  I am pretty much expecting the stock to get close to $20 in 1-2 years.  There are too many catalysts even if the entire hardware segment liquidates.

 

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  • 2 weeks later...

http://us.rd.yahoo.com/finance/external/xengadget/SIG=12ae7mgp5/*http://www.engadget.com/2014/12/23/rockstar-sells-patents-ends-lawsuits/?ncid=rss_truncated

 

For anyone who believes the margin of safety in the liquidation scenario, read the above link. I wonder how much is bbry's 2.3 bn patent portfolio really worth.

 

I recently entered a 7% position right before the earnings release. I am not comfortaby to increase to 20% yet.

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I am trying to find out if John Chen's software revenue projection for 2016 would be accurate or not.

http://seekingalpha.com/article/2524085-blackberrys-bbry-ceo-john-chen-on-q2-2015-results-earnings-call-transcript?page=5&p=qanda&l=last

Can anyone help me understand what they mean by "pipeline" here? Does that mean every 6-8 customers they talk to, they get one of them convert to a paying customer?

 

 

 

"James Yersh - Chief Financial Officer

Oh no, no, no, in a software business, 2, 3, 4 x are too low to convert. You know typically software pipelining you're going to have to be looking at more like 6 to 8 times.

 

Todd Coupland - CIBC

6 to 8 times what you’ve done so far?

 

James Yersh - Chief Financial Officer

No you have to look at 6 to 8 times – if I’m going to have to bring in 100 million, I have to be working on 600 million to 800 million of pipeline in order to feel like that you could feel comfortable with a 100 million.

 

Todd Coupland - CIBC

That’s okay. Fair enough, so what’s that pipeline post does 12 launch look like now?

 

James Yersh - Chief Financial Officer

Well this is embedded into my doubling the software numbers for next year. And I shouldn’t be reporting on pipeline. That number are sometimes are meaningful and sometimes are not as meaningful."

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Hi guys,

 

I realize that BBRY isn't dead yet for a lot of us, but I really managed to botch this one up and thought I'd share my post mortem. Hopefully it helps some of you.

 

1/13: Prices fall back to $10.91. Instead of buying back call at a slight loss to ensure I have exposure to further upside (as obviously this thing can move!), I double my position hoping that the call will expire, I'll keep the premium, and I'll have 2x the exposure for the next bounce up. This excitement was, in part, supported by the fact the phones were being extremely hyped and supposedly doing well in their releases in Canada in the UK. Prices rise all the way to $17.50 and I feel really, really good about myself.

 

2/13: It really seems like the new phones are doing well. Anecdotal evidence from web tracking statistics suggests that the BBRY mobile OS is way more represented then it was a few months ago. Reviews on Verizon and ATT are solid and the Q10 is heavily anticipated. People are raving about Blackbberry all over the web but short interest is still high making me excited for an ensuing squeeze. I re-evaluate my thesis, determine that my price target is $25 per share based on improving phone sales/cash flows. Stock drops from 17.50 to 13. I buy at $16 and $13.

 

4/13: Prem Watsa says he thinks shares are worth $30-40 per share. This sits very well with me as my estimate is even more conservative then his. Continue buying in confidence that $13 and $14 are a steal. Even bought a few call options at a strike of 17 to leverage my upside.

 

5/13: Continue tracking web statistics and reviews. Both continue to support the recovery hypothesis. It's now a 20% position for me with an average cost around $12-13.

 

6/13: Blackberry announces disappointing earnings, writes down $1B in inventory, burns 500M in cash that quarter, and stock tanks by 35-40%. I'm thunderstruck. They didn't even have $1B in inventory on the balance sheet....

 

 

http://blackberryempire.com/prem-watsa-thinks-blackberry-shares-worth-40/

It sounds like in 2013 April BBRY has already become profitable. But somehow it suddenly reported massive losses the next quarter? How did that happen? That's pretty strange to me.

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Hi guys,

 

I realize that BBRY isn't dead yet for a lot of us, but I really managed to botch this one up and thought I'd share my post mortem. Hopefully it helps some of you.

 

1/13: Prices fall back to $10.91. Instead of buying back call at a slight loss to ensure I have exposure to further upside (as obviously this thing can move!), I double my position hoping that the call will expire, I'll keep the premium, and I'll have 2x the exposure for the next bounce up. This excitement was, in part, supported by the fact the phones were being extremely hyped and supposedly doing well in their releases in Canada in the UK. Prices rise all the way to $17.50 and I feel really, really good about myself.

 

2/13: It really seems like the new phones are doing well. Anecdotal evidence from web tracking statistics suggests that the BBRY mobile OS is way more represented then it was a few months ago. Reviews on Verizon and ATT are solid and the Q10 is heavily anticipated. People are raving about Blackbberry all over the web but short interest is still high making me excited for an ensuing squeeze. I re-evaluate my thesis, determine that my price target is $25 per share based on improving phone sales/cash flows. Stock drops from 17.50 to 13. I buy at $16 and $13.

 

4/13: Prem Watsa says he thinks shares are worth $30-40 per share. This sits very well with me as my estimate is even more conservative then his. Continue buying in confidence that $13 and $14 are a steal. Even bought a few call options at a strike of 17 to leverage my upside.

 

5/13: Continue tracking web statistics and reviews. Both continue to support the recovery hypothesis. It's now a 20% position for me with an average cost around $12-13.

 

6/13: Blackberry announces disappointing earnings, writes down $1B in inventory, burns 500M in cash that quarter, and stock tanks by 35-40%. I'm thunderstruck. They didn't even have $1B in inventory on the balance sheet....

 

 

http://blackberryempire.com/prem-watsa-thinks-blackberry-shares-worth-40/

It sounds like in 2013 April BBRY has already become profitable. But somehow it suddenly reported massive losses the next quarter? How did that happen? That's pretty strange to me.

 

Blackberry was very profitable for much of the time that people discussed its demise. Its was the shrinking revenues and shrinking profits that got most worried, even though both were still very large relative to market cap at the time.

 

I think much of the $1B was costs associated with breaking agrrements with suppliers. Blackberry only had a couple hundred million in inventories on balance sheet, but they jad agreed with suppliers to buy certain amounts over a period of time. When Z10 and Q10 didnt sell anywhere near the amount suggested by anecdotal evidence, they wrote the inventory down to 0 and had to pay a ton of money to suppliers to break the contracts on volume requirements. At least thats how I understood the events.

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Can anyone help me understand what they mean by "pipeline" here? Does that mean every 6-8 customers they talk to, they get one of them convert to a paying customer?

 

Pretty much. How I understand it: Opportunity is 600-800M (closing all deals), resulting in closed deals of 100M.

;)

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Hi guys,

 

I realize that BBRY isn't dead yet for a lot of us, but I really managed to botch this one up and thought I'd share my post mortem. Hopefully it helps some of you.

 

1/13: Prices fall back to $10.91. Instead of buying back call at a slight loss to ensure I have exposure to further upside (as obviously this thing can move!), I double my position hoping that the call will expire, I'll keep the premium, and I'll have 2x the exposure for the next bounce up. This excitement was, in part, supported by the fact the phones were being extremely hyped and supposedly doing well in their releases in Canada in the UK. Prices rise all the way to $17.50 and I feel really, really good about myself.

 

2/13: It really seems like the new phones are doing well. Anecdotal evidence from web tracking statistics suggests that the BBRY mobile OS is way more represented then it was a few months ago. Reviews on Verizon and ATT are solid and the Q10 is heavily anticipated. People are raving about Blackbberry all over the web but short interest is still high making me excited for an ensuing squeeze. I re-evaluate my thesis, determine that my price target is $25 per share based on improving phone sales/cash flows. Stock drops from 17.50 to 13. I buy at $16 and $13.

 

4/13: Prem Watsa says he thinks shares are worth $30-40 per share. This sits very well with me as my estimate is even more conservative then his. Continue buying in confidence that $13 and $14 are a steal. Even bought a few call options at a strike of 17 to leverage my upside.

 

5/13: Continue tracking web statistics and reviews. Both continue to support the recovery hypothesis. It's now a 20% position for me with an average cost around $12-13.

 

6/13: Blackberry announces disappointing earnings, writes down $1B in inventory, burns 500M in cash that quarter, and stock tanks by 35-40%. I'm thunderstruck. They didn't even have $1B in inventory on the balance sheet....

 

 

http://blackberryempire.com/prem-watsa-thinks-blackberry-shares-worth-40/

It sounds like in 2013 April BBRY has already become profitable. But somehow it suddenly reported massive losses the next quarter? How did that happen? That's pretty strange to me.

 

Blackberry was very profitable for much of the time that people discussed its demise. Its was the shrinking revenues and shrinking profits that got most worried, even though both were still very large relative to market cap at the time.

 

I think much of the $1B was costs associated with breaking agrrements with suppliers. Blackberry only had a couple hundred million in inventories on balance sheet, but they jad agreed with suppliers to buy certain amounts over a period of time. When Z10 and Q10 didnt sell anywhere near the amount suggested by anecdotal evidence, they wrote the inventory down to 0 and had to pay a ton of money to suppliers to break the contracts on volume requirements. At least thats how I understood the events.

 

Thanks. I wonder if we still have that risk as of today? I see from the latest quarterly filing:

http://google.brand.edgar-online.com/displayfilinginfo.aspx?FilingID=10370304-898-262491&type=sect&TabIndex=2&companyid=4839&ppu=%252fdefault.aspx%253fsym%253dBBRY

"Purchase obligations and commitments amounted to approximately $1.6 billion as at November 29, 2014 , including interest payments of $446 million on the Debentures, purchase orders with contract manufacturers in the amount of $565 million , and operating lease obligations of $204 million ."

 

Someone said before that all of the inventory risks as of today are carried by FoxConne. Is that true?

What do you think is the potential downside from here? They launched a bunch of new services in the past few months. Is there any way to guess the market reception?

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Guest wellmont

"James Yersh - Chief Financial Officer

Oh no, no, no, in a software business, 2, 3, 4 x are too low to convert. You know typically software pipelining you're going to have to be looking at more like 6 to 8 times.

 

Todd Coupland - CIBC

6 to 8 times what you’ve done so far?

 

James Yersh - Chief Financial Officer

No you have to look at 6 to 8 times – if I’m going to have to bring in 100 million, I have to be working on 600 million to 800 million of pipeline in order to feel like that you could feel comfortable with a 100 million.

 

Todd Coupland - CIBC

That’s okay. Fair enough, so what’s that pipeline post does 12 launch look like now?

 

James Yersh - Chief Financial Officer

Well this is embedded into my doubling the software numbers for next year. And I shouldn’t be reporting on pipeline. That number are sometimes are meaningful and sometimes are not as meaningful."

 

pure gobbledygook.

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