muscleman Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 bbry Lost $1.2b on operations at year end mar 2013. it lost 6 times that amount by year end mar 2014. True. But things seem to have been turning around under John Chen's leadership, no? Do you know any competitors on the enterprise secure server sector? How are their strength compared to BBRY? How likely is it for BBRY to increase the software revenue to $500 M and bbm revenue to $100M next year? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kfh227 Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 Hi guys, I realize that BBRY isn't dead yet for a lot of us, but I really managed to botch this one up and thought I'd share my post mortem. Hopefully it helps some of you. 1/13: Prices fall back to $10.91. Instead of buying back call at a slight loss to ensure I have exposure to further upside (as obviously this thing can move!), I double my position hoping that the call will expire, I'll keep the premium, and I'll have 2x the exposure for the next bounce up. This excitement was, in part, supported by the fact the phones were being extremely hyped and supposedly doing well in their releases in Canada in the UK. Prices rise all the way to $17.50 and I feel really, really good about myself. 2/13: It really seems like the new phones are doing well. Anecdotal evidence from web tracking statistics suggests that the BBRY mobile OS is way more represented then it was a few months ago. Reviews on Verizon and ATT are solid and the Q10 is heavily anticipated. People are raving about Blackbberry all over the web but short interest is still high making me excited for an ensuing squeeze. I re-evaluate my thesis, determine that my price target is $25 per share based on improving phone sales/cash flows. Stock drops from 17.50 to 13. I buy at $16 and $13. 4/13: Prem Watsa says he thinks shares are worth $30-40 per share. This sits very well with me as my estimate is even more conservative then his. Continue buying in confidence that $13 and $14 are a steal. Even bought a few call options at a strike of 17 to leverage my upside. 5/13: Continue tracking web statistics and reviews. Both continue to support the recovery hypothesis. It's now a 20% position for me with an average cost around $12-13. 6/13: Blackberry announces disappointing earnings, writes down $1B in inventory, burns 500M in cash that quarter, and stock tanks by 35-40%. I'm thunderstruck. They didn't even have $1B in inventory on the balance sheet.... http://blackberryempire.com/prem-watsa-thinks-blackberry-shares-worth-40/ It sounds like in 2013 April BBRY has already become profitable. But somehow it suddenly reported massive losses the next quarter? How did that happen? That's pretty strange to me. Blackberry was very profitable for much of the time that people discussed its demise. Its was the shrinking revenues and shrinking profits that got most worried, even though both were still very large relative to market cap at the time. I think much of the $1B was costs associated with breaking agrrements with suppliers. Blackberry only had a couple hundred million in inventories on balance sheet, but they jad agreed with suppliers to buy certain amounts over a period of time. When Z10 and Q10 didnt sell anywhere near the amount suggested by anecdotal evidence, they wrote the inventory down to 0 and had to pay a ton of money to suppliers to break the contracts on volume requirements. At least thats how I understood the events. Thanks. I wonder if we still have that risk as of today? I see from the latest quarterly filing: http://google.brand.edgar-online.com/displayfilinginfo.aspx?FilingID=10370304-898-262491&type=sect&TabIndex=2&companyid=4839&ppu=%252fdefault.aspx%253fsym%253dBBRY "Purchase obligations and commitments amounted to approximately $1.6 billion as at November 29, 2014 , including interest payments of $446 million on the Debentures, purchase orders with contract manufacturers in the amount of $565 million , and operating lease obligations of $204 million ." Someone said before that all of the inventory risks as of today are carried by FoxConne. Is that true? What do you think is the potential downside from here? They launched a bunch of new services in the past few months. Is there any way to guess the market reception? Yes, Foxconn is handling the supply chain management for the phones they make. So alot of risk is reduced. I don't know what hte deal is with non Foxconn phones though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alekbaylee Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 BBRY goes into the IOT... http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/blackberry-unveils-internet-of-things-platform-at-ces-1.2892736 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kfh227 Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 http://www.fool.ca/2015/01/08/legendary-investor-nelson-obus-bought-2-1-million-shares-of-blackberry-ltd-should-you-buy-too/ The article itself is great but this is important to note. There are a handful of well known investors with concentrated portfolios that are backing up the truck to BBRY. ..... You probably don’t know Nelson Obus. But everyone ‘in the know’ on Wall Street has heard of him. Obus is the co-founder Wynnefield Capital, a value-based hedge fund based in New York. Since its inception in 1992, Obus has consistently posted double-digit returns for his clients. Today, he’s one of the most respected investors in the world. Based on Obus’s track record, I always watch what stocks he’s buying. And right now, he’s making a big bet on Canada’s technology sector. According to recent SEC filings, Obus has been building a position in BlackBerry. As of September, he owned about 2.1 million shares of the former tech giant. At the time, that represented his eighth largest position and nearly 10% of his total portfolio. That news might come as a surprise. BlackBerry is best known for its struggling handset business. But this is becoming a dated view of the company. That’s because new Chief Executive John Chen is staging something of a turnaround. ......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muscleman Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 Should we expect SAF revenue to go down to zero in the future? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kfh227 Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 Should we expect SAF revenue to go down to zero in the future? Yes. That's from BB5 and BB7 devices. They made a bunch of them recently to fill some demand but everything is moving to BB10. Ramblings that are probably best to delete. But investing in BBRY is a qualitative exercise more than a quantitative one: I'll be honest. I have no idea what BBRY is going to make in 2020. I simply believe that they are making alot of the moves that need to be made in order to become FCF positive by then. Will FCF be $20 million or $10 billion in 2020? I don't know. I'm assuming that annual FCF will be in the $100m to low single digit billions by 2020. I'd be ecstatic to see revs in one quarter get back to $1 billion. I think that will happen soon as BES fees take off and new product initiatives are monetized. I am hoping that the Blackberrry logo lands on top of Ford's Sync 3 system. When people see what kind of experience modern blackberry phones provide, I think some will be astonished and give it a look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jawn619 Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 Samsung approached BBRY to buy them for 13.35 to 15.49! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VersaillesinNY Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 This sounds great! Let's wait and see how this story unfolds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rpadebet Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 This sounds great! Could it be another one of those joint venture things being misunderstood as takeover attempt? I am guessing this deal wouldnt present the security concerns the Lenovo deal presented given Samsung's Korean origins. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muscleman Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 This sounds great! Could it be another one of those joint venture things being misunderstood as takeover attempt? I am guessing this deal wouldnt present the security concerns the Lenovo deal presented given Samsung's Korean origins. I built a 20% position a few days ago and right after that BBRY dropped over 10%. I was feeling really dumb. Then this news came out. :) Should we vote yes or no? I think I would sell for $15 given the current state of BBRY. For longer term I still think there is a good chance that BBRY can make a lot of money. Or is this something more like the MSFT-Nokia deal, where Nokia sells only the phone division to MSFT for $7bn? Or is it a buy out offer for the entire BBRY? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rpadebet Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 Just to round things out, here is my estimate of liquidation value Cash & Short Term Inv $2,824 Land and Building $1,395 Patents $2,000 Software & Apps $1,000 Run Off business $2,564 Less: Restructuring Costs $724 Less: Inventory Write down $500 Total Liquidation Value $8,559 Shares Outstanding 515.4 Per Share Value $16.60 Mr. Prem Watsa's holdings also seem to average around this price, so it is reasonable to expect a value close to this to be realized eventually. Not to toot my own horn - but it is funny how a totally dumb valuation exercise by me 16 months ago, followed by all the drama and currently rumored Samsung acquisition price are so close ;) I am jotting this down to pure luck even though I would like to think I didn't know how smart I was then :) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
txlaw Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 Very interesting. One possible alternative to straight up acquisition could be a deal for parts of Blackberry plus an exclusive licensing/partnership deal. Specifically, I could see Samsung buying the Blackberry, BES, and BBM brands/assets + securing an exclusive licensing deal from and partnership with Blackberry Technology Solutions. Such a deal would make strategic sense for Samsung. They'd be able to incorporate BBRY's security technology and infrastructure into their own products -- exclusively -- and use that to make a big push into the enterprise market. This would be a logical move given the Apple + IBM deal. BTS consists of QNX, Project Ion (IoT platform), Certicom (cryptography IP, including ECC patents), Paratek, and non-Certicom patent portfolio. Many of these assets would be of the type that the Five Eyes would want to keep under their regimes. So I could see shareholders being left with BTS + cash. If that were to happen, then you'd have a very asset-lite technology company focused on developing security technology, licensing it, and applying it to new markets (such as IoT). It will be interesting to see how this all plays out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rust Belt Capital Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 Does anyone honestly see Chen selling at this point in time and for that price? Chen clearly thinks there is long term value here, and IMO his reputation would be a bit tarnished if he cashed out so quickly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rpadebet Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 Does anyone honestly see Chen selling at this point in time and for that price? Chen clearly thinks there is long term value here, and IMO his reputation would be a bit tarnished if he cashed out so quickly It was trading with a 5 handle when he took over. Not sure getting it to 2.5x in a year or so would tarnish any reputation :). In fact just the opposite, if and when he decides to take another turnaround CEO role, that stock would most likely turnaround immediately! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muscleman Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 Does anyone honestly see Chen selling at this point in time and for that price? Chen clearly thinks there is long term value here, and IMO his reputation would be a bit tarnished if he cashed out so quickly It was trading with a 5 handle when he took over. Not sure getting it to 2.5x in a year or so would tarnish any reputation :). In fact just the opposite, if and when he decides to take another turnaround CEO role, that stock would most likely turnaround immediately! I remember the board talking about Chen's option vesting. Do you remember the terms? If the takeover happens now, Chen won't make a lot of money on it. If he turns around the company and grows it and then sell it, he can make WAYYY more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
undervalued Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 Awww sucks.. It was close to my buy back price at $9 and this happens.. Looking back, I cashed out BBRY to XCO and SD back in Oct just before the big slide. Ouch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kfh227 Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 Very interesting. One possible alternative to straight up acquisition could be a deal for parts of Blackberry plus an exclusive licensing/partnership deal. Specifically, I could see Samsung buying the Blackberry, BES, and BBM brands/assets + securing an exclusive licensing deal from and partnership with Blackberry Technology Solutions. Such a deal would make strategic sense for Samsung. They'd be able to incorporate BBRY's security technology and infrastructure into their own products -- exclusively -- and use that to make a big push into the enterprise market. This would be a logical move given the Apple + IBM deal. BTS consists of QNX, Project Ion (IoT platform), Certicom (cryptography IP, including ECC patents), Paratek, and non-Certicom patent portfolio. Many of these assets would be of the type that the Five Eyes would want to keep under their regimes. So I could see shareholders being left with BTS + cash. If that were to happen, then you'd have a very asset-lite technology company focused on developing security technology, licensing it, and applying it to new markets (such as IoT). It will be interesting to see how this all plays out. I think this makes more sense than a complete sale. I don't see Canada allowing a complete sale to a South Korean company. I honestly don't know what parts would be allowed in a sale. Thoughts: 1) No parts that would take a lot of jobs away 2) No parts that would involve the security model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muscleman Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 Awww sucks.. It was close to my buy back price at $9 and this happens.. Looking back, I cashed out BBRY to XCO and SD back in Oct just before the big slide. Ouch. XCO and SD has been the biggest money sucker. I bought those in 2013 and 2012 and lost some money and got out quickly. I thought it was safe to follow Wilbur Ross and Prem Watsa. It turned out to be wrong. :( I guess I was just lucky then. I studied SD's per well type curve and didn't believe per well economics were as good as they touted. I got out of XCO because I thought CHK has some liquids and made more sense to own. I got out of CHK in October 2014 right before the Oil price tank because I realized that I could not understand this sector at all. I bet I was just lucky. I would not touch any Oil & Gas stocks anymore. Just too hard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rpadebet Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 I think this makes more sense than a complete sale. I don't see Canada allowing a complete sale to a South Korean company. I honestly don't know what parts would be allowed in a sale. Thoughts: 1) No parts that would take a lot of jobs away 2) No parts that would involve the security model 1. Jobs: not a lot of jobs to be lost. Already trim workforce. Samsung might not find too much of a overlap with their strengths. 2. South Korea is an ally of US isn't it? I don't think security issues would a primary factor this time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
undervalued Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 BBRY denies takeover http://press.blackberry.com/press/2015/blackberry-responds-to-media-report.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muscleman Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 BBRY denies takeover http://press.blackberry.com/press/2015/blackberry-responds-to-media-report.html Hmm.... Whoever came up with that takeover rumor, should they be charged for manipulating the market? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alekbaylee Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 Does anyone honestly see Chen selling at this point in time and for that price? Chen clearly thinks there is long term value here, and IMO his reputation would be a bit tarnished if he cashed out so quickly Tend to agree, but he could sell part of the shop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
txlaw Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 BBRY denies takeover http://press.blackberry.com/press/2015/blackberry-responds-to-media-report.html Hmm.... Whoever came up with that takeover rumor, should they be charged for manipulating the market? "BlackBerry has not engaged in discussions with Samsung with respect to any possible offer to purchase BlackBerry." Rumors tend to fly with BBRY. However, not "engaging in discussions" is not inconsistent with BBRY having received a proposal or offer from Samsung. Now, if they said "Blackberry has not received an offer from Samsung," then that that would indicate that the rumor is complete BS. Gotta parse these things as though a lawyer has written them, folks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
txlaw Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 BBRY denies takeover http://press.blackberry.com/press/2015/blackberry-responds-to-media-report.html Hmm.... Whoever came up with that takeover rumor, should they be charged for manipulating the market? "BlackBerry has not engaged in discussions with Samsung with respect to any possible offer to purchase BlackBerry." Rumors tend to fly with BBRY. However, not "engaging in discussions" is not inconsistent with BBRY having received a proposal or offer from Samsung. Now, if they said "Blackberry has not received an offer from Samsung," then that that would indicate that the rumor is complete BS. Gotta parse these things as though a lawyer has written them, folks. Note Samsung's response, though. They said in an email to Bloomberg that the report is "groundless." Now that's a pretty interesting statement. Don't know exactly what that means. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Patmo Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 I highly doubt blackberry will sell itself in the middle of an epic comeback. Why put in the work then run away when the payoff is at your fingertips? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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