BB - BlackBerry

[Alekbaylee]

End of the rumor..

http://business.financialpost.com/2015/01/19/samsung-electronics-co-has-no-intention-of-buying-blackberry-ltd-ceo-tells-wall-street-journal/?__lsa=fa12-dc89

[kfh227]

I highly doubt blackberry will sell itself in the middle of an epic comeback. Why put in the work then run away when the payoff is at your fingertips?

 

Any offer of a significant amount would have to be entertained.  It's the role of the C level execs and Board to look into a reasonable offer.  Chen already said offers like $15/share are pretty much going to be ignored.

[sleepydragon]

At this stage, I won't be surprised if Samsung make a big investment in BBRY, just like when MSFT invested in AAPL.

[Patmo]

I highly doubt blackberry will sell itself in the middle of an epic comeback. Why put in the work then run away when the payoff is at your fingertips?

 

Any offer of a significant amount would have to be entertained.  It's the role of the C level execs and Board to look into a reasonable offer.  Chen already said offers like $15/share are pretty much going to be ignored.

 

Well... Agree to agree then.

[Alekbaylee]

More on the un/substantiated rumor...

http://business.financialpost.com/2015/01/21/blackberry-ltd-still-being-pursued-by-samsung-anatomy-of-a-deal/?__lsa=e94e-3e1b

[muscleman]

It just occurred to me, that the VIC thesis about BBRY is actually flawed when it assigns a valuation to the legacy SAF revenue run-off.

If today's BBRY is already breaking even without any of the SAF run-off revenue,  then the SAF revenue has some value.

However, today's BBRY is breading even with the help of the SAF run-off. Therefore the SAF run-off revenue has no value has should be viewed as a way  to fund the transformation of the BBRY business.  :)

I got out of BBRY. After putting up so much effort to study, I do not think $10.5 is a price that's screaming to me. :)

[txlaw]

Good and Samsung partnering up.

https://www1.good.com/about/press-releases/samsung-delivers-advanced-android-enterprise-mobility-solution.html

 

That suggests that the Blackberry-Samsung partnership shouldn't be read into that much. 

 

Wonder what the options expiration investigation will turn up.

[Cageyone]

Since July 2014 the BB 50 day MA has been consistently above the 200 day MA both in the US and Canada (so this is not just an FX story).

 

So can any of you folks with a technical analysis bent advise whether I have any hope of recovering my $20 average cost anytime soon? (I followed Prem into this one but didn't double down quite as much as he did as I think his cost is about $17. The good news is mine is less than a 1 per cent position!)

[Patmo]

Since July 2014 the BB 50 day MA has been consistently above the 200 day MA both in the US and Canada (so this is not just an FX story).

 

So can any of you folks with a technical analysis bent advise whether I have any hope of recovering my $20 average cost anytime soon? (I followed Prem into this one but didn't double down quite as much as he did as I think his cost is about $17. The good news is mine is less than a 1 per cent position!)

 

Not soon but it will happen.

[TwoCitiesCapital]

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-03-03/blackberry-introduces-275-touch-screen-phone-at-barcelona-show

 

New touchscreen phone.

[kfh227]

Since July 2014 the BB 50 day MA has been consistently above the 200 day MA both in the US and Canada (so this is not just an FX story).

 

So can any of you folks with a technical analysis bent advise whether I have any hope of recovering my $20 average cost anytime soon? (I followed Prem into this one but didn't double down quite as much as he did as I think his cost is about $17. The good news is mine is less than a 1 per cent position!)

 

Did you DCA under $10?

Did you wait for 40%+ drops in price before each DCA?  Amny people DCA on each 5% or 10% swing which is a mistake.  Those moves are just noise.

 

His cost is something like $17 but I don't know how the convertible debt effects that.  He's collecting a nice yield right now and can buy more for less than $17/share upon conversion.  Fairfax stands to own over 1/3 of BBRY upon conversion.

 

What he does and what we are doing are two different things.  (I expect him to do the same with SD if needed)

 

[kfh227]

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-03-03/blackberry-introduces-275-touch-screen-phone-at-barcelona-show

 

New touchscreen phone.

 

Everyone is groaning over that phone.  It's low end.  But in an interview, Chen said that a lot of enterprise wants a keyboard (Passport and Classic) and a lot of those in enterprise that want a touchscreen phone want a low cost solution.  I'm also guessing that those users also wanted a 5" screen.

 

What most are intrigued about is the slider.  Only glimpsed though during a talk.  Rumors have that pegged at high end and using the Snapdragon 810 which is pretty damned high end but not THE high end.  It also looks huge in the picture of it from MWC (Mobile World Congress).  Much bigger than a 5".  Could be a 5.5"-6" model.

 

Best rumor now is 5 product lines (based on files found in the latest OS):

Passport

Classic

Leap

Book <== surprised like me?

Titan <= could be the slider.

 

The other rumor is that they might be making an Android based phone.  It makes sense.  If people want Android, and are stubborn, they will get Android.  Might as well serve that market.  And BBRY is a pretty well known brand name.  They don't even need to make it.  Just have Foxconn do all the work and slap a BBRY logo on it with some software customizations.  Heck, they already said that The Hub and other features that make BB10 great are coming to iOS and Android.

[TwoCitiesCapital]

http://www.valuewalk.com/2015/03/blackberry-ltd-canso-becomes-3rd-largest-shareholder/

 

This doesn't seem bullish at all. The only reason to convert high-yielding convertibles 5 years prior to maturity is you're looking to sell the equity that it's convertible into.

[sleepydragon]

http://www.valuewalk.com/2015/03/blackberry-ltd-canso-becomes-3rd-largest-shareholder/

 

This doesn't seem bullish at all. The only reason to convert high-yielding convertibles 5 years prior to maturity is you're looking to sell the equity that it's convertible into.

 

if you look at the 13G filing with SEC, it appears to me they are reporting the converts bond.

"* Includes shares issuable upon the conversion of ..."

 

At anytime, they can sell these bonds at better price to investment banks than converting them.

[TwoCitiesCapital]

http://www.valuewalk.com/2015/03/blackberry-ltd-canso-becomes-3rd-largest-shareholder/

 

This doesn't seem bullish at all. The only reason to convert high-yielding convertibles 5 years prior to maturity is you're looking to sell the equity that it's convertible into.

 

if you look at the 13G filing with SEC, it appears to me they are reporting the converts bond.

"* Includes shares issuable upon the conversion of ..."

 

At anytime, they can sell these bonds at better price to investment banks than converting them.

 

My bad. I was thinking they wouldn't have to disclose the "shares" if held in the form of the convertible bond so the disclosure made me think that they had converted to equity which wouldn't have been a good thing.

[KinAlberta]

Just posting a link to a recent article.

 

BlackBerry Uses IBM Software to Make Samsung Tablets Spy-Proof - Bloomberg Business

 

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-03-14/blackberry-uses-ibm-software-to-make-samsung-tablets-spy-proof

 

 

 

[zenith]

Some thoughts on the converts discussed here, 1st a link to the Ex-3

 

http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/915191/000119312513432720/d622931dex3.htm

 

1st off with respect to the conversion of the shares,

see below

(4) Within two years following the Closing Date, if a Purchaser, acting reasonably, so requests in writing, BlackBerry shall use its reasonable commercial efforts to obtain TSX approval of the listing of the Debentures.

 

 

also what is interesting is that after November of next year, they can potentially buy back the bonds at a premium

 

The Issuer may at its option at any time on or after November —, 2016, and from time to time thereafter, redeem all, or any of the Debentures on not less than forty (40) and not more than sixty (60) days’ prior notice to the Holders for cash at the following redemption prices:

 

(a) 104% of the principal amount of the Debentures to be redeemed, plus accrued and unpaid interest thereon, if any, to but excluding the Redemption Date, if redeemed on or after November —, 2016 and prior to November —, 2017;

 

(b) 103% of the principal amount of the Debentures to be redeemed, plus accrued and unpaid interest thereon, if any, to but excluding the Redemption Date, if redeemed on or after November —, 2017 and prior to November —, 2018;

 

© 102% of the principal amount of the Debentures to be redeemed, plus accrued and unpaid interest thereon, if any, to but excluding the Redemption Date, if redeemed on or after November —, 2018 and prior to November —, 2019; and

 

(d) 101% of the principal amount of the Debentures to be redeemed, plus accrued and unpaid interest thereon, if any, to but excluding the Redemption Date, if redeemed on or after November —, 2019 and prior to November —, 2020.

[rpadebet]

http://seekingalpha.com/pr/12957306-blackberry-reports-non-gaap-profitability-and-positive-cash-flow-for-the-fiscal-2015-fourth-quarter

 

Cash Balance of $3.3 Bill, Normalized CF of 75mill per quarter on a market cap of 5bill.

 

Seems like the ship (small boat at this point ?) has turned. If they can find a way to grow revenues from here, the stock gets attractive again.

[valueorama]

For all the trash talking Chen did in December, he should have shown some results. He talked about how he was eating other people's lunch on BES12. Now we dont hear any discussion on it. I am a bit disappointed.

 

The results are like whole of last year, there is something for the bulls to rave about. At the same time, bears also have something to chew on.

Not outstanding.

 

It would have been impressive, if they could have atleast stemmed the drop in SAF revenue with BES12 revenue. Looks like BES12 did not pan out as planned. Only thing to hope for is that the competitors(mobileiron, good, etc) have some security blows for blackberry to get market share.

[rpadebet]

For all the trash talking Chen did in December, he should have shown some results. He talked about how he was eating other people's lunch on BES12. Now we dont hear any discussion on it. I am a bit disappointed.

 

The results are like whole of last year, there is something for the bulls to rave about. At the same time, bears also have something to chew on.

Not outstanding.

 

It would have been impressive, if they could have atleast stemmed the drop in SAF revenue with BES12 revenue. Looks like BES12 did not pan out as planned. Only thing to hope for is that the competitors(mobileiron, good, etc) have some security blows for blackberry to get market share.

 

That's my takeaway from the call as well. BES12 isn't performing as well as publicized. But he did raise the software revenue target from 500mill to 600mill. I guess he expects more revenues from the "virtual sim" solution and QNX

 

Also I think, if you see them spending their cash hoard on multiple acquisitions this year, you can assume that BES12 isn't doing great.

[kfh227]

For all the trash talking Chen did in December, he should have shown some results. He talked about how he was eating other people's lunch on BES12. Now we don't hear any discussion on it. I am a bit disappointed.

 

Check out the mobile iron conference call.  They just released earnings and the stock tanked.  Mobile Iron is doing all the speaking for what Chen said.

[kfh227]

12m share buy back announced today.

 

The purpose of this repurchase program will be to offset dilution that may result from our proposed employee share purchase plan and from proposed amendments to our equity incentive plan," said BlackBerry Executive Chairman and CEO, John Chen. "We intend to take advantage of our strong cash position to purchase our shares when the market price does not reflect what we view to be the underlying value and future prospects of our business, without adversely affecting our strategic initiatives," added Mr. Chen.

 

A bit of this:  8) (I agree with the market price comment)

and this:  :o (can't wait for the bearish articles saying how "delusional" BBRY is)

[wachtwoord]

Employee incentives seem a bit high though.

[Uccmal]

Can someone explain to me why buybacks are even being considered at a company that needs to invest in its future? 

 

I haven't been following them closely for a couple of years after getting creamed, and I sold well above $13.00. 

 

It just seems to me that spending money on share buy backs for a technology company smacks of lack of imagination, which seems bad for a company in this space.  Just sayin....

[txlaw]

Can someone explain to me why buybacks are even being considered at a company that needs to invest in its future? 

 

I haven't been following them closely for a couple of years after getting creamed, and I sold well above $13.00. 

 

It just seems to me that spending money on share buy backs for a technology company smacks of lack of imagination, which seems bad for a company in this space.  Just sayin....

 

They're sitting on close to $3 billion, so the 12 million annual buyback won't really put a dent in their investment activities at all.

 

I don't think this announcement is that big of a deal, except that it indicates that BBRY has finally stabilized to where they will generate positive FCF before growth investments.