BB - BlackBerry

[DCG]

We know their phone interface is crap. But looking at the Playbook gives a good insight as to what the new phones will look like and the response from the customers. There is no way the future is seen in this survey.

 

 

Phones running QNX are still a year away. Which is already about 5 years late. BB has badly hurt their brand, and it will continue to erode for the next year while they continue to put out phones with their crappy operating system.

[Liberty]

I hope I'm wrong about RIM, because I own some Fairfax, and Fairfax owns some RIM.

 

But...

 

People need to understand that by its very nature, a phone isn't just an enterprise product. It's always going to be at least an enterprise-consumer hybrid, because you don't leave your phone at work, you're expected to carry it with you, and nobody wants two phones (with having to duplicate contact lists, music, photos, bookmarks, apps (if possible), learn two user interfaces, etc).

 

So what consumers prefer means something, especially since executives and IT people also have personal preferences and tend to push for those.

 

There's a lot of inertia in the system, but what matters is directionality.

 

It's orders of magnitude easier for Apple and Google to make enterprise management tools than for RIM to build a competing phone(s)+OS+developer network and get the user marketshare and mindshare. If RIM's strategy is for Google and Apple not to have enough engineering talent to build enterprise tools, it's pretty weak. Especially when there's an existing model that they can use as template to improve upon...

 

RIM's new OS comes out next year. Let's say there's no delays and it comes out in the middle of 2012 rather than at the end. There's going to be about a million Android and iOS devices activated each day until then. Almost 400 million new Droids and iOSes, maybe more, with tens of thousands of brand new apps/games/tools... and those are moving targets that will have probably have improved significantly in a year (software and hardware).

 

So a lot could happen between now and then, but just looking at what we know now, I don't put great faith in RIM's ability to catch up, and even less with its ability to leapfrog Google and Apple. On the other hand, I think Apple and Google are very capable of bridging the feature gap of whatever remains that RIM does and they don't do, and to keep improving their respective platforms very fast.

 

If we were talking about mainframe computers in the 1970s, what the consumer thinks wouldn't matter. But phones are consumer products first and enterprise tools second...

[Smazz]

I dont have alot of time today but just a quick preview of the posts above, are you taking into account that google Apps are and will run on BB?

 

 

[Guest valueInv]

People have a lot of compatibilty problems with apps within Android phones themselves.  How is RIM going to get them run properly on BBs? Especially with the reliability that enterprise users require. Android apps also have a host of security issues - not something suited for the enterprise.

[Liberty]

I dont have alot of time today but just a quick preview of the posts above, are you taking into account that google Apps are and will run on BB?

 

I think that was a smart move by RIM because the alternative of not offering it was worse, but it's also a confirmation of Android's platform's position.

 

Some problems with it are that they might have trouble making all the apps run well, unless they keep their hardware very close to Android phones. But following someone else's technical path can be limiting for a hardware maker like RIM. There can also be software problems; the Android apps' will use android UI metaphors, and that will clash with BB UI guidelines, making the apps often feel non-native. They can also be slower if they need to run software emulation, and there's always the possibility that the Android ecosystem will go in one direction hardware-wise and RIM will go in another, making it harder for some apps to run well. The Android-branded store will also serve as a nice Android advertisement to BB users.

 

So it was a good move because they knew they couldn't create their own competitive app store, but it was a defensive move, not actually an offensive one. IMHO.

[Smazz]

I guess security does matter after all...

 

 

Research in Motion’s BlackBerry PlayBook has become the first tablet computer to be approved for use by U.S. government agencies

 

http://money.canoe.ca/money/stocks/canada/archives/2011/07/20110721-153803.html

 

[rmitz]

I guess security does matter after all...

 

 

Research in Motion’s BlackBerry PlayBook has become the first tablet computer to be approved for use by U.S. government agencies

 

http://money.canoe.ca/money/stocks/canada/archives/2011/07/20110721-153803.html

 

 

I can get a rock approved for use by US government agencies too.

 

(Sorry, low blow...)

[Smazz]

I guess security does matter after all...

 

 

Research in Motion’s BlackBerry PlayBook has become the first tablet computer to be approved for use by U.S. government agencies

 

http://money.canoe.ca/money/stocks/canada/archives/2011/07/20110721-153803.html

 

 

I can get a rock approved for use by US government agencies too.

 

(Sorry, low blow...)

A rock must be easier to get approved than an apple..

[Liberty]

Research in Motion’s BlackBerry PlayBook has become the first tablet computer to be approved for use by U.S. government agencies

 

http://money.canoe.ca/money/stocks/canada/archives/2011/07/20110721-153803.html

 

Good for them. Now let's see if it results in orders and cash flow.

[Rabbitisrich]

In so far as the short arguments are concerned, isn't it more relevant news that Apple and Android tablets don't get the FIPS 140-2 certificate?

[Rabbitisrich]

In so far as the short arguments are concerned, isn't it more relevant news that Apple and Android tablets don't get the FIPS 140-2 certificate?

 

this is a press release. the stock will work if earnings per share rise. I repeat. this is PR. the playbook is simpy a BETA product and will never sell in serious numbers. even to the government.

 

I'm not as wedded to the negative view, but I agree that being the first to receive the certificate is less important than if and when AAPL and Android are approved.

[Liberty]

In so far as the short arguments are concerned, isn't it more relevant news that Apple and Android tablets don't get the FIPS 140-2 certificate?

 

It's certainly good for them, but Apple and Google can get it later, and in the meantime they can grow in lots of other places. It's not like it provides a very deep moat..

[beerbaron]

At the price it currently trades, every ok news is a great news! Take it, they have been scarce lately!

 

BeerBaron

[Smazz]

Some problems with it are that they might have trouble making all the apps run well, unless they keep their hardware very close to Android phones.  

 

The Android App player for BB has just been leaked.. the techies have been dowloading them and using them - they seem enthusiastic using it since they have no official menus etc and thing wasnt "supposed" to even be out/still workin on.

 

Was it a planned or mistaken leak? who knows - but its out and its working for the crackberry crew.

[alertmeipp]

the idea is probably just like Mac Windows or VMWare?

[Ballinvarosig Investors]

this is a press release. the stock will work if earnings per share rise. I repeat. this is PR. the playbook is simpy a BETA product and will never sell in serious numbers. even to the government.

You're wasting your time, I'm afraid! It's interesting seeing supposedly rational people pining their hopes on failed products and vaporware. Poor old Benji would be turning in his grave reading some of the investment theses. At the moment, RIM has the hallmarks of falling knife and value trap.

[beerbaron]

Interesting... the people sentiment about RIM is so low that good news get discarded and bad news get amplified.

 

BeerBaron

[Ballinvarosig Investors]

Interesting... the people sentiment about RIM is so low that good news get discarded and bad news get amplified.

 

BeerBaron

Nope, it's the other way around. People are deluding themselves at the moment by exaggerating insignificant news and by downplaying significant news. Who cares if the Playbook has some silly government approved certificate if it's been completely trounced in the marketplace. Who cares about some unreleased OS that is unproven and hasn't made a dime? The meat and bones is in the financials, and they suggest the winners in the market are Apple, Google, HTC, and Samsung. Until you at least see stabilisation in RIM's market share, quite frankly you would be a sucker to buy at this point.

 

I wonder just how popular this topic would have been if it wasn't for the fact that Fairfax hold a position.

[S2S]

I wonder just how popular this topic would have been if it wasn't for the fact that Fairfax hold a position.

 

Or that Nokia : Finns :: RIM : Canadians

 

Sorry, somebody has to say it.

[Liberty]

Interesting... the people sentiment about RIM is so low that good news get discarded and bad news get amplified.

 

BeerBaron

 

I don't know, I think people tend to lose perspective about RIM and grab onto any small bit of good news and forget the big picture.

 

Also, every time I end up explaining my positions in details about this market (about RIM, GOOG, MSFT), people tend not to reply to the main points of my thesis, which I take as a good sign that they're not finding obvious flaws in the logic. I'm sure that if they found counter-arguments they would be more than happy to share them.

[DCG]

Interesting... the people sentiment about RIM is so low that good news get discarded and bad news get amplified.

 

BeerBaron

 

I don't know, I think people tend to lose perspective about RIM and grab onto any small bit of good news and forget the big picture.

 

Also, every time I end up explaining my positions in details about this market (about RIM, GOOG, MSFT), people tend not to reply to the main points of my thesis, which I take as a good sign that they're not finding obvious flaws in the logic. I'm sure that if they found counter-arguments they would be more than happy to share them.

 

I agree with your thesis.

[Smazz]

Interesting... the people sentiment about RIM is so low that good news get discarded and bad news get amplified.

 

BeerBaron

 

I don't know, I think people tend to lose perspective about RIM and grab onto any small bit of good news and forget the big picture.

 

Also, every time I end up explaining my positions in details about this market (about RIM, GOOG, MSFT), people tend not to reply to the main points of my thesis, which I take as a good sign that they're not finding obvious flaws in the logic. I'm sure that if they found counter-arguments they would be more than happy to share them.

If you are using that logic to make your investment decisions that is a pretty dangerous assumption.

 

Most people probably just dont have as much free time on their hands as you do to write out thesis on the internet.

 

I rarely have time for more than one sentence at a go.

[Liberty]

To be clear, I'm not saying there's no money to be made on RIM. It's entirely possible that the market will oversell it and that on some future good news the stock will rise enough to provide a nice trading profit. Or maybe there's some way to play it with options (I don't know much about that).

 

But I'm more of a buy & hold guy. I only buy stuff I'm comfortable holding for at least 3-5 years, and when I sell it's usually because I find something else that is better/cheaper.

 

I don't think RIM is positioned to be either a short-term or a long-term winner. They could still be a decently profitable second-tier player, though. We'll see.

[Liberty]

If you are using that logic to make your investment decisions that is a pretty dangerous assumption.

 

Most people probably just dont have as much free time on their hands as you do to write out thesis on the internet.

 

I rarely have time for more than one sentence at a go.

 

I'm not using that to make investment decisions. In fact, I had already bought GOOG at 482 when I was having those discussions.

 

But isn't it strange that the people discussing a topic will write many long posts, and then I write mine, and then it stops or it continues without a direct reply to my arguments? I don't take that as confirmation of my thesis, but I would take strong counter arguments as a sign to re-evaluate it, and so far I haven't really seen those strong arguments. So it's like sending something for peer review and the reviewers don't point out any major flaws (and you know they would, even if it was just in a one-liner). It doesn't mean you're right, but it reduces the chances you're wrong IMO.

 

There are many things that aren't in my circle of competence, and I try to learn from others about those. This board has so many smart people, I've learned a lot. But I consider this area of tech part of what I know, so I'm more ready to share my thoughts.

[Smazz]

But isn't it strange that the people discussing a topic will write many long posts, and then I write mine, and then it stops or it continues without a direct reply to my arguments?

sincerely, im not sure which posts you are referring to as i was not in the msft or google threads.

 

Like i said, its about timing on here - alot of times it depends on peoples schedules - when they are on, when they are not on. I know if there are multiple pages added to a thread i have been in i dont get the opp to go back to read the entire thread.

 

last night by luck i found news of the leak of the Android App serendipitously.  Alot of times my posts dont make sence because i am multitasking while writing lol......