Liberty Posted July 22, 2011 Share Posted July 22, 2011 Yeah, sure. I'm not reading that much into it. I'm just saying that publicly sharing your thesis is often a good way to get useful feedback and put your logic to the test. If your stuff is BS, you have a better chance of being called up on it than if you never tell anyone. That's part of the point of a discussion forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Smazz Posted July 22, 2011 Share Posted July 22, 2011 There are also things that are just not worthy of a response. When people write: this company is dead - yet has Billions$ of free cash flow, for the foreseeable future, no debt and a hard core product or that getting licenced with the govt for a security product is meaningless well - how or why would someone respond to that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Liberty Posted July 22, 2011 Share Posted July 22, 2011 There are also things that are just not worthy of a response. When people write: this company is dead - yet has Billions$ of free cash flow, for the foreseeable future, no debt and a hard core product or that getting licenced with the govt for a security product is meaningless well - how or why would someone respond to that. Not sure if you're addressing this to me, but I didn't say they're dead, just that they seem to be headed for decline and that I'm not quite seeing how they'll be able to reverse it any time soon. I even said earlier today that there might be money to be made in RIM, but that if I was picking a longer term holding, I would stay away from them, however cheap they appear right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest valueInv Posted July 22, 2011 Share Posted July 22, 2011 Interesting... the people sentiment about RIM is so low that good news get discarded and bad news get amplified. BeerBaron I don't know, I think people tend to lose perspective about RIM and grab onto any small bit of good news and forget the big picture. Also, every time I end up explaining my positions in details about this market (about RIM, GOOG, MSFT), people tend not to reply to the main points of my thesis, which I take as a good sign that they're not finding obvious flaws in the logic. I'm sure that if they found counter-arguments they would be more than happy to share them. Actually, I have. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ballinvarosig Investors Posted July 22, 2011 Share Posted July 22, 2011 There are also things that are just not worthy of a response. Indeed. getting licenced with the govt for a security product is meaningless well - how or why would someone respond to that. The Playbook has 3.3% tablet market share - http://www.itproportal.com/2011/07/22/microsoft-tablet-market-share-increases-surpasses-rim/ The Playbook has been a flop and has probably lost money for RIM with all the R&D and huge advertising push that has went behind it. It would probably be best if RIM just put a stake through the project and stuck to the phone market. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Smazz Posted July 22, 2011 Share Posted July 22, 2011 There are also things that are just not worthy of a response. When people write: this company is dead - yet has Billions$ of free cash flow, for the foreseeable future, no debt and a hard core product or that getting licenced with the govt for a security product is meaningless well - how or why would someone respond to that. Not sure if you're addressing this to me, No, I havent attached names to posts - I just remember posts in brief, I cant recall who wrote what. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Liberty Posted July 22, 2011 Share Posted July 22, 2011 Actually, I have. I haven't seen any counterpoints to the main ideas in comments like this one: http://cornerofberkshireandfairfax.ca/forum/index.php?topic=4442" data-ipsquote-contentclass="forums_Topic" 48645#msg48645 But whatever, it's not a contest, I was just saying that sometimes you get value from feedback and counter-arguments, and sometimes you get some value from the absence of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Smazz Posted July 23, 2011 Share Posted July 23, 2011 The Playbook has 3.3% tablet market share - http://www.itproportal.com/2011/07/22/microsoft-tablet-market-share-increases-surpasses-rim/ You are quoting some schmo who makes a pt about market share from a company who just launched their product like 3 months ago.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beerbaron Posted July 23, 2011 Share Posted July 23, 2011 My guess is the marketshares were calculated with the manufacturer's released numbers. Apple announced 10M, RIM announced 600k. If AAPL has 60% of the market how much does 600K stand for? 3.6%. Sounds like the Strategy Analytics report is basically taking all 5-6 companies released numbers and labelling it as a study. No new information there. BeerBaron Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Myth465 Posted July 23, 2011 Share Posted July 23, 2011 Liberty I dont think anyone is really avoiding your posts or thoughts. I think basically this is like any other bet. We have passed the point where additional info is useful. Either you believe RIM is getting its lunch taken by bigger better companies and is in runoff or the threats and delays are overblown and this is the buying opportunity of the year. I tend to go with the first one. RIM may come back, so may Nokia, but pigs may fly as well. I would short if forced, but am perfectly happy doing nothing. Others like the idea and are buying or holding. With that said I agree with your eco system theory and feel that IT Guys and CEOs are people first. They want whats cool and will open up to other platforms (starting with Apple because security should be fairly easy to solve). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Liberty Posted July 23, 2011 Share Posted July 23, 2011 Liberty I dont think anyone is really avoiding your posts or thoughts. I hate that my little comment about this has been misunderstood. I'm sure it's my fault and I should have phrased it better. Mea culpa. I only meant that I'm sure that if there were convincing counter-arguments to the main points in my thesis (the kind you read and go "oh, that makes sense, I should probably reconsider my position"), someone would probably have posted them. I haven't seen those so far. There's a lot of small pieces of good news about RIM, but from my point of view, the big forces pressuring the company are still overwhelmingly negative and unlikely to turn positive for a while, and even if that happens it might be too late by then. I could totally be wrong about all this. It's not like I'm shorting RIM or anything (I don't do shorts), so I haven't spent as much time on this as on a stock that I own a position in. I'm just trying to share my thoughts and hopefully they can be useful to some here. Cheers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Smazz Posted July 23, 2011 Share Posted July 23, 2011 Liberty I dont think anyone is really avoiding your posts or thoughts. II tend to go with the first one. RIM may come back, so may Nokia, but pigs may fly as well. I would short if forced, but am perfectly happy doing nothing. Others like the idea and are buying or holding. Nokia and RIM are not the same company, they dont have the same strengths & weaknesses. Nokia is a great handset - Ive owned mine for some time, dropped it etc etc - still works. My friend has an Iphone, no lie, never gets her texts emails cause the thing is so sensitive to the heat.. but i digress - anyway, we must remember, every company is different.. people and maybe more importantly businesses are WAITING for RIM products to come out, they arent really waiting for Nokias... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Smazz Posted July 23, 2011 Share Posted July 23, 2011 I hate that my little comment about this has been misunderstood. I'm sure it's my fault and I should have phrased it better. Mea culpa. Blame it on the RAIN (or lack there of ;) ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Myth465 Posted July 23, 2011 Share Posted July 23, 2011 RIM and Nokia are the same to me, 2 companies in the turn around too hard pile... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CONeal Posted July 24, 2011 Share Posted July 24, 2011 Came across something I was not aware of that RIM has put out on the market around the time they were announcing BES support for all phones. No longer does an individual have to have a work phone and personal phone. RIM has made it where the two lives can be merged into one phone. Business can have all the security and business applications on their side of the phone along with whatever extra security they want. On the consumer side, people are not under cooperate IT policy and can do whatever they want, play on Facebook, upload photos, store personal contacts and it's out of the reach of the business side. It pretty sweet, wondering how many will come back bc of this feature when the touch screens are released in OS 7 http://us.blackberry.com/apps-software/business/server/full/balance.jsp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
woodstove Posted July 24, 2011 Share Posted July 24, 2011 Yes, a nice feature. Thanks for the info. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beerbaron Posted July 24, 2011 Share Posted July 24, 2011 IF corporate IT forces people to use BB then people will carry a Minimum of 2 phones. The producers in companies, not the IT heads, will determine what gets purchased at large corporations. The days of IT CIOs deciding what the head of sales is going to be carrying are over. Can you please explain you thesis on why IT departments lost control of it's infrastructure? BeerBaron Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CONeal Posted July 24, 2011 Share Posted July 24, 2011 IF corporate IT forces people to use BB then people will carry a Minimum of 2 phones. The producers in companies, not the IT heads, will determine what gets purchased at large corporations. The days of IT CIOs deciding what the head of sales is going to be carrying are over. I think you are missing the point. Why would someone want to carry two phones when one phone can handle all of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Smazz Posted July 24, 2011 Share Posted July 24, 2011 Came across something I was not aware of that RIM has put out on the market around the time they were announcing BES support for all phones. No longer does an individual have to have a work phone and personal phone. RIM has made it where the two lives can be merged into one phone. Business can have all the security and business applications on their side of the phone along with whatever extra security they want. On the consumer side, people are not under cooperate IT policy and can do whatever they want, play on Facebook, upload photos, store personal contacts and it's out of the reach of the business side. It pretty sweet, wondering how many will come back bc of this feature when the touch screens are released in OS 7 http://us.blackberry.com/apps-software/business/server/full/balance.jsp IF corporate IT forces people to use BB then people will carry a Minimum of 2 phones. The producers in companies, not the IT heads, will determine what gets purchased at large corporations. The days of IT CIOs deciding what the head of sales is going to be carrying are over. youve never worked for a multi-national size company have you? We arent talking about companies whos strategy gets devised at the water cooler.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
S2S Posted July 25, 2011 Share Posted July 25, 2011 ^ Look guys, my circle of competence does not include sitting here and guessing what corporate IT staff thinks and does not think. What I can see with my own eyes (and Tim Cook's Fortune 500 penetration figure certainly collaborates) is that the Goldmans and the Merrill Lynchs of the world have adopted platforms that have nothing to do with RIM. What's more (and I have made this same argument before in this forum, too), RIM takes home ~40% of sales as gross margin vs. ~20% of other handset makers. Why? BIS/BES. Now, flip it around and put on the thinking hat of a corporate decision maker. These services are NOT free. When your userbase is no longer dominated by BBs, why would you NOT shop around for mobile security solutions (such as http://bit.ly/oKnpXx) or, even in the case of large multinationals, do it in house? Oh, and by the way the RIM earns significantly lower margin (as a % of sales) on the Playbook than traditional BBs. Sales growth (especially in international markets, where customer behavior will eventually catch up with the early smartphone markets such as the US and prefer more internet-browsing-friendly phones) will also decelerate. 1 + 1 + 1 = 3, please enlighten me how RIMM margin will NOT go down? I think you are missing the point. Why would someone want to carry two phones when one phone can handle all of it. Yes, it's called an iPhone. Or in other places, an Android. Until QNX-based BBs come along AND manage to gain significant traction, I don't see how RIM can gain vs. AAPL or GOOG when the consumer is the one making the decision. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Liberty Posted July 25, 2011 Share Posted July 25, 2011 http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-07-25/research-in-motion-to-cut-10-of-jobs-as-blackberry-loses-share-to-iphone.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bookie71 Posted July 25, 2011 Share Posted July 25, 2011 FYI, as I said this is in my to hard pile. http://www.infoworld.com/d/the-industry-standard/rim-coo-retires-company-lays-one-tenth-staff-167949?source=IFWNLE_nlt_mobilehdwr_2011-07-25 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ballinvarosig Investors Posted July 25, 2011 Share Posted July 25, 2011 youve never worked for a multi-national size company have you? We arent talking about companies whos strategy gets devised at the water cooler.. I don't need to work at a large company to know that rimm products are failing in the marketplace. All I have to do is observe reality. And monitor the news, such as today's announcement that rimm is "cost optimizing" over 10% of it's workforce. +1 Consumers want Ios and Android, I really don't understand why cellphone manufacturers don't make their devices OS neutral? Putting all your chips onto one OS strikes me as incredibly reckless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Liberty Posted July 26, 2011 Share Posted July 26, 2011 http://www.wired.com/epicenter/2011/07/rim-mighty-are-falling/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Smazz Posted July 27, 2011 Share Posted July 27, 2011 Funny stuff - Google Executive Chairman Eric Schmidt caught again using his blackberry AGAIN!! haha.. some habits dies hard i guess? Pic and top 10 reasons why he was using it :D http://www.androidcentral.com/top-10-reasons-why-eric-schmidt-was-again-caught-using-blackberry?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+androidcentral+%28Android+Central%29 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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