BB - BlackBerry

[Smazz]

What's hidden in RIM's numbers is the fact that 35% of the 13.7 MILLION phones sold this quarter were the new BB7 devices that were only available two weeks prior to quarter end. Hey folks this equates to 4.795 million BB7 phones sold in two weeks! 

 

Rim seems to be offering the PB at a discount to retailers that have salesman than tend to hype the android and apple stuff.  So if these employees actually try and buy the PB (at the employee discount), they may be surprised and actually recommend the product in the store to new customers....smart move.

 

Where did you find this information?

 

BeerBaron

They are increasing sales worldwide on phones and they Barely had the 7 out and the QNX hasnt been out yet but they will have it well debugged with the playbook though it hasnt taken off.

 

[cwericb]

Dow & TSX down 3/400 points and rim is up 3.6% (Canada).  Who would have thought of RIM as being a good place to be on a day like this?

 

[Smazz]

Dow & TSX down 3/400 points and rim is up 3.6%. Who would have thought of RIM as being a good place to be on a day like this?

Burke will be in here telling us he bought at close yesterday and sold today - cause he is a CEO y'know!

[Smazz]

AWESOME!

I brought my ACB down even more - i think im going to have some fun with the dual listing using the currency.

 

BTW, if some of you remember, i was going to write something on my thoughts on the subscription service and revenues generated from there - well, (cant remember who but) someone just wrote a small piece not exactly along my train of thought but parrallel thinking to mine.

 

Basically my hypothesis is current market pricing is 5x Forward just for the subscriber base - giving most of the rest of the company for free.

 

I really believe a purchase today will benefit great rewards in the next 18 months. The pricing today, really the company just has to stay alive and the rest of the world (non U.S.) will do just that - even better, the reality is it is growing and their best products havent even come out yet.

 

Look, at these levels, all you really need to believe is that the company will stay alive and any short term upward blips will offer you great rewards even if you just wanted to look at it that way.

 

 

Have a nice day.

[FlyingArrow]

Here's a data point that not too many see.

 

Amazing how the US press can write 30 articles and blogs on the same comscore or nielson data - relentless and meaningless. Kind of like the CEO posts...

 

But nobody writes about this:

 

http://crackberry.com/blackberry-bold-9900-sold-out-vodafone-uk

 

It will be interesting how the numbers stack up and how strong a bridge BB7 will be to QNX. It's already starting out stronger than I thought. We will see.

[beerbaron]

you actually think that's a data point that matters? it could be that they didn't put many phones to Vodaphone so they sold out fast. that's why people focus on market share losses instead of tidbits like this that could be the result of many things, some of them highly bearish for Rimm. want some real bullish news? how about

carl Ichan getting involved and trying to throw the bumbs out?

 

So Peter, what's your take on Watsa saying he strongly believes in management and that trowing them out would be a huge mistake?

 

BeerBaron

[CONeal]

Here's a data point that not too many see.

 

Amazing how the US press can write 30 articles and blogs on the same comscore or nielson data - relentless and meaningless. Kind of like the CEO posts...

 

But nobody writes about this:

 

http://crackberry.com/blackberry-bold-9900-sold-out-vodafone-uk

 

 

 

It will be interesting how the numbers stack up and how strong a bridge BB7 will be to QNX. It's already starting out stronger than I thought. We will see.

 

you actually think that's a data point that matters? it could be that they didn't put many phones to Vodaphone so they sold out fast. that's why people focus on market share losses instead of tidbits like this that could be the result of many things, some of them highly bearish for Rimm. want some real bullish news? how about

carl Ichan getting involved and trying to throw the bumbs out?

 

I have no problem with responding or considering views that differ from mine.  Although what you do provides no insight and is constant garbage that you counter with.  You do not even look at what the company is doing.  I thought ethos board was manly used for discussions regarding investments but you have turned this thread into another yahoo message board.  If you are looking for a second job I'm sure CNBC would hire you on as one of their experts.

[turar]

How well did Nokia's Symbian bridge to Meego work out?

 

What does it have to do with BB7 / QNX?

[Smazz]

is this anyone here?

 

http://us.123rf.com/400wm/400/400/dragon_fang/dragon_fang0810/dragon_fang081000108/3789791-a-drunk-man-wearing-a-lamp-shade-on-his-head.jpg

 

 

[Smazz]

Gross margin guidance continues to be lowered... And I'm still waiting for a credible responses to an argument I made months ago:

 

What's more (and I have made this same argument before in this forum, too), RIM takes home ~40% of sales as gross margin vs. ~20% of other handset makers. Why? BIS/BES. Now, flip it around and put on the thinking hat of a corporate decision maker. These services are NOT free. When your userbase is no longer dominated by BBs, why would you NOT shop around for mobile security solutions (such as http://bit.ly/oKnpXx) or, even in the case of large multinationals, do it in house?

 

Oh, and by the way the RIM earns significantly lower margin (as a % of sales) on the Playbook than traditional BBs. Sales growth (especially in international markets, where customer behavior will eventually catch up with the early smartphone markets such as the US and prefer more internet-browsing-friendly phones) will also decelerate. 1 + 1 + 1 = 3, please enlighten me how RIMM margin will NOT go down?

 

Margins will go down a little as the Playbook is being used as a device to make sure RIM is positioned in the tablet wars.  They will be able to sell servers and BES licenses for the connection to the Playbook.  The margins for the phones fell a little this qtr as they were clearing out inventory for BB7 has the traditional margins that their phones normally.

 

Regarding multinationals bringing it in house.  Is it really cost effective to do this?  The extra workers you have to hire and pay salary and benefits to?  The hassle of bringing it inhouse when you already ave a solution that works well.  Security in these companies are very strict and the couple of extra dollars that might (and I really mean might) be saved is really not worth the effort.  This might sound kind of weird but this is how a particular company actually looks at it.  They are anal retentive to the 10th degree when it comes to security.  Asked them if they have tested the IPhone or Andriod for use?  Yes, it was tested bc management asked them. They won't be supporting other phones for several reasons.

 

Might not answer your question but that is the best I can do.

 

CoNeal,

good post - and i agree with what you wrote.  Having been on that from experience in very large company, the hurdles to get anything changed is like parting the red sea ESPECIALLY if it has anything to do with a security issue or god forbid something that is already working - then combine both? well...  Requisitions need to show a true saving or critical need and as you wrote you cant put a price on seciurity so i cannot imagine full scale switches in this area - maybe from small companies but not multi nationals.

[turar]

What does it have to do with BB7 / QNX?

are you new to the wireless industry? rimm faces the exact kind of "transition" to a new OS that Nokia faced. do you know how that turned out?

 

If you're talking about the decision to go with Windows at Nokia, I still don't understand how it has anything to do with RIMM's transition. Also, Nokia still ships Meego phones if I understand it correctly.

[S2S]

Regarding multinationals bringing it in house.  Is it really cost effective to do this?  The extra workers you have to hire and pay salary and benefits to?  The hassle of bringing it inhouse when you already ave a solution that works well.  Security in these companies are very strict and the couple of extra dollars that might (and I really mean might) be saved is really not worth the effort.  This might sound kind of weird but this is how a particular company actually looks at it.  They are anal retentive to the 10th degree when it comes to security.  Asked them if they have tested the IPhone or Andriod for use?  Yes, it was tested bc management asked them. They won't be supporting other phones for several reasons.

 

Might not answer your question but that is the best I can do.

 

CoNeal,

good post - and i agree with what you wrote.  Having been on that from experience in very large company, the hurdles to get anything changed is like parting the red sea ESPECIALLY if it has anything to do with a security issue or god forbid something that is already working - then combine both? well...  Requisitions need to show a true saving or critical need and as you wrote you cant put a price on seciurity so i cannot imagine full scale switches in this area - maybe from small companies but not multi nationals.

 

I'd like to note that friction to changes at the CIO level is not a new argument - in fact it had been cited ad nauseum in this very thread when RIMM was still trading above $40 per share. Or in HPQ threads when HPQ itself was trading over $40. Or CSCO, DELL, INTC. Name a "value" LC tech, and you run into the same bull argument. I'm not saying it definitely does not apply to RIMM, but switching costs is but a factor to consider, not the end-all, be-all answer many seem to think it is.

 

Since you also brought up "multinationals", I'd point out another item I posted 3 or so months ago: 

^ The service revenue isn't worth much, if anything, if the phones aren't selling!

 

Anecdotal stories about how Wall St guys still love their company-provided Blackberries are great and all, so here's mine: I was at an industry conference earlier this month where iPhone sightings were as common as BB's. As for something not quite as anecdotal: 80% of the investment banks have either adopted the iPhone for corporate emails or are running pilot programs before going all-in. Yes, the IT guys hate it, but at the end of the day, the decision lies in the hands of the bankers upstairs.

 

 

[Smazz]

Regarding multinationals bringing it in house.  Is it really cost effective to do this?  The extra workers you have to hire and pay salary and benefits to?  The hassle of bringing it inhouse when you already ave a solution that works well.  Security in these companies are very strict and the couple of extra dollars that might (and I really mean might) be saved is really not worth the effort.  This might sound kind of weird but this is how a particular company actually looks at it.  They are anal retentive to the 10th degree when it comes to security.  Asked them if they have tested the IPhone or Andriod for use?  Yes, it was tested bc management asked them. They won't be supporting other phones for several reasons.

 

Might not answer your question but that is the best I can do.

 

CoNeal,

good post - and i agree with what you wrote.  Having been on that from experience in very large company, the hurdles to get anything changed is like parting the red sea ESPECIALLY if it has anything to do with a security issue or god forbid something that is already working - then combine both? well...  Requisitions need to show a true saving or critical need and as you wrote you cant put a price on seciurity so i cannot imagine full scale switches in this area - maybe from small companies but not multi nationals.

 

I'd like to note that friction to changes at the CIO level is not a new argument - in fact it had been cited ad nauseum in this very thread when RIMM was still trading above $40 per share.

ok, you are making analogies between what is going on at the company level vs what the stock is trading at. I cant play that game.

What i can and did do is read that the service revenue and subscription base is increasing.

[S2S]

ok, you are making analogies between what is going on at the company level vs what the stock is trading at. I cant play that game.

What i can and did do is read that the service revenue and subscription base is increasing.

 

Read/quote/respond to my whole post, not just a sentence, would ya?

[Smazz]

ok, you are making analogies between what is going on at the company level vs what the stock is trading at. I cant play that game.

What i can and did do is read that the service revenue and subscription base is increasing.

 

Read/quote/respond to my whole post, not just a sentence, would ya?

 

you want me to respond to anecdote stuff? or someone elses opinion (nothing more than that) while  I made a point by using actual information about revenue in the service and subcriber base? Im not sure what else you want? I wasnt in the other threads you mentioned.  I cant debate the fact that the stock price is at x or y claiming this proves its value or not value.

If you want to get into a pissing contests in the form of he said she said with no official statements or numbers to back it up, well  im really not into that.  I'll leave that to Burke.

 

[S2S]

“We all see only that which we are trained to see.”

― Robert Anton Wilson

 

you want me to respond to anecdote stuff? or someone elses opinion (nothing more than that) while  I made a point by using actual information about revenue in the service and subcriber base? Im not sure what else you want? I wasnt in the other threads you mentioned.  I cant debate the fact that the stock price is at x or y claiming this proves its value or not value.

If you want to get into a pissing contests in the form of he said she said with no official statements or numbers to back it up, well  im really not into that.  I'll leave that to Burke.

The I'm-taking-the-high-road defense, I love it.

 

You've made, what, 20+ posts about RIMM in this thread, and how many contains only "actual information" again? I count two of your post on this page, not counting the one I quoted above. All I can see there is "someone elses opinion (nothing more than that)". Do tell if I missed anything.

 

As for the part you skipped over, which happens to be my conclusion, perhaps it would be wise if I put it in italic this time:

 

..switching costs is but a factor to consider, not the end-all, be-all answer many seem to think it is.

 

Okay, that's an opinion. How about another item that you also skipped over (and again, posted months ago but never acknowledged by the bulls. Like many of the concerns about RIMM I've posted. It's almost a broken record at this point)

 

As for something not quite as anecdotal: 80% of the investment banks have either adopted the iPhone for corporate emails or are running pilot programs before going all-in. Yes, the IT guys hate it, but at the end of the day, the decision lies in the hands of the bankers upstairs.

 

I learned that from first hand account, but in case there's doubt:

Other banks (than Deutsche Bank) testing iPhones at present include Bank of America, Citi, JP Morgan Chase, Standard Chartered and UBS.

 

http://9to5mac.com/2011/01/25/deutsche-bank-analyst-says-theres-no-return-to-blackberry-after-iphone-trial/

 

That article was published in January. Similar notes (and from less AAPL-friendly sources too!) are readily available via Google.

 

 

 

 

[beerbaron]

“We all see only that which we are trained to see.”

― Robert Anton Wilson

 

you want me to respond to anecdote stuff? or someone elses opinion (nothing more than that) while  I made a point by using actual information about revenue in the service and subcriber base? Im not sure what else you want? I wasnt in the other threads you mentioned.  I cant debate the fact that the stock price is at x or y claiming this proves its value or not value.

If you want to get into a pissing contests in the form of he said she said with no official statements or numbers to back it up, well  im really not into that.  I'll leave that to Burke.

The I'm-taking-the-high-road defense, I love it.

 

You've made, what, 20+ posts about RIMM in this thread, and how many contains only "actual information" again? I count two of your post on this page, not counting the one I quoted above. All I can see there is "someone elses opinion (nothing more than that)". Do tell if I missed anything.

 

As for the part you skipped over, which happens to be my conclusion, perhaps it would be wise if I put it in italic this time:

 

..switching costs is but a factor to consider, not the end-all, be-all answer many seem to think it is.

 

Okay, that's an opinion. How about another item that you also skipped over (and again, posted months ago but never acknowledged by the bulls. Like many of the concerns about RIMM I've posted. It's almost a broken record at this point)

 

As for something not quite as anecdotal: 80% of the investment banks have either adopted the iPhone for corporate emails or are running pilot programs before going all-in. Yes, the IT guys hate it, but at the end of the day, the decision lies in the hands of the bankers upstairs.

 

I learned that from first hand account, but in case there's doubt:

Other banks (than Deutsche Bank) testing iPhones at present include Bank of America, Citi, JP Morgan Chase, Standard Chartered and UBS.

 

http://9to5mac.com/2011/01/25/deutsche-bank-analyst-says-theres-no-return-to-blackberry-after-iphone-trial/

 

That article was published in January. Similar notes (and from less AAPL-friendly sources too!) are readily available via Google.

 

I wonder why investment banks are disclosing such informations? You never hear about GM's cell phone policy... I wonder if it would be because DB is handling money from Apple??? No it couldn't be, banks would not go to such great lengths as to release a press release to get 90B worth of business.

 

BeerBaron

 

As Munger would say "Invert, always invert"

[S2S]

I wonder why investment banks are disclosing such informations? You never hear about GM's cell phone policy... I wonder if it would be because DB is handling money from Apple??? No it couldn't be, banks would not go to such great lengths as to release a press release to get 90B worth of business.

 

BeerBaron

 

As Munger would say "Invert, always invert"

 

Because each of those entities has 10,000+ employees who would spread the word anyway (particularly to envious friends frustrated with their own company-issued BBs*) ?

 

Because the banks want to present themselves as early adopters? Don't underestimate the power of vanity on the Street.

 

Because the vendors would love to gloat over prized clients? (I came across this press release earlier, not a bank but not bad either: http://bit.ly/pZYYsk)

 

*: but hey, the devil itself, Goldman Sachs, still sticks to Crackberrys and often 3 year old voice-disabled phones at that... so maybe there's hope. Go long and strong!

[beerbaron]

S2S, I totally get your point but seriously I don't think that's it. Usually companies have no incentive to do press release stating their IT policies. It just add no value to their business and also increases security risks. Saying you are running 100% on a system is telling the hackers what type of locks your using. I really think there was an incentive for DB to say they are now using iOS, or else they not have bothered.

 

Peter_Burke, that's the first wind I get from their emulation. I hope they did not butcher the emulation. Still in the rumor mill, but not good if proven true.

 

BeerBaron

[CONeal]

S2S,

 

After thinking about it a little, a couple of conversations came to mind that for some reason or another didn't pay attention to when it was mentioned to me.  I think your right but for a different reason.  I think more companies allowing IPhones into an organization is a good thing.

 

BlackBerry's worst enemy is not the phone or the technology itself.  It's the perception that comes with a BlackBerry (a work phone).  When I was looking into the issues with the company a few people mentioned this.  In general most people hate their job for one reason or another.  A BlackBerry reminds them of the job they hated (Mainly saying this bc they was always connected to work).  So if companies want to bring in the IPhone I'm all for it.  The stigma and Apple's image would be tarnished by it.  In a couple of years people would associate the iPhone with their job and would end up causing a revolt against the product just like what occurred with the BlackBerry.

 

At the end of the day cooperate phone are only allowed to do so much due to security restrictions.  Call, email, and access some interal sites.  People thinking they can use the phones to play games will be disappointed. 

[CONeal]

I wonder why investment banks are disclosing such informations? You never hear about GM's cell phone policy... I wonder if it would be because DB is handling money from Apple??? No it couldn't be, banks would not go to such great lengths as to release a press release to get 90B worth of business.

 

BeerBaron

 

As Munger would say "Invert, always invert"

 

Because each of those entities has 10,000+ employees who would spread the word anyway (particularly to envious friends frustrated with their own company-issued BBs*) ?

 

Because the banks want to present themselves as early adopters? Don't underestimate the power of vanity on the Street.

 

Because the vendors would love to gloat over prized clients? (I came across this press release earlier, not a bank but not bad either: http://bit.ly/pZYYsk)

 

*: but hey, the devil itself, Goldman Sachs, still sticks to Crackberrys and often 3 year old voice-disabled phones at that... so maybe there's hope. Go long and strong!

 

 

 

Wall Street may have vanity but Most regular companies have the motto "If it's not broke don't fix it.".

 

And how in the world can banks be perceived as being early adopters?  The IPhone has been out for several years everyone and their brother already has one?  I'm more inclined to beer barons position, there doing it for the money.

[Smazz]

 

Okay, that's an opinion. How about another item that you also skipped over (and again, posted months ago but never acknowledged by the bulls. Like many of the concerns about RIMM I've posted. It's almost a broken record at this point)

 

I think you may be taking yourself a bit too seriously - if you think because someone does or doesnt reply to a post of yours that it is a an endorsement or not of your view well then i think you think some of us have more time than we do.

 

 

You've made, what, 20+ posts about RIMM in this thread

Im kind of flattered..... i guess.. that you read all my posts - but i must be truthful - I havent read all yours and i dont know all about your posts.

If you think what i wrote is defensive - well, the only way, in your mind I wouldnt be looked as defensive is argue with your "opinionated" posts.

Are we going for symbolic victories here?

 

Again, I put down what ACTUALLY happneing from the actual company -not a reporter who does not or have to show sources or IBs with agendas.

 

 

 

 

[Smazz]

haha

 

[S2S]

Smazz, I didn't check your posts other than those on this page. Maybe I should have, but the what happened in baseball tonight was too wild/incredible/emotionally draining to ignore.

 

S2S,

 

After thinking about it a little, a couple of conversations came to mind that for some reason or another didn't pay attention to when it was mentioned to me.  I think your right but for a different reason.  I think more companies allowing IPhones into an organization is a good thing.

 

BlackBerry's worst enemy is not the phone or the technology itself.  It's the perception that comes with a BlackBerry (a work phone).  When I was looking into the issues with the company a few people mentioned this.  In general most people hate their job for one reason or another.  A BlackBerry reminds them of the job they hated (Mainly saying this bc they was always connected to work).  So if companies want to bring in the IPhone I'm all for it.  The stigma and Apple's image would be tarnished by it.  In a couple of years people would associate the iPhone with their job and would end up causing a revolt against the product just like what occurred with the BlackBerry.

 

At the end of the day cooperate phone are only allowed to do so much due to security restrictions.  Call, email, and access some interal sites.  People thinking they can use the phones to play games will be disappointed.

 

Would you be my lawyer?*  ;D

 

Let's just agree to disagree. Maybe RIMM is cheap enough at this point that my concerns won't amount to much. Or not, but most shareholders are suffering enough already, why go any further? Cheers,

 

* Chances are I can't afford such outstanding service. The spin is still something to marvel about though.

 

[Smazz]

oh no!!!!!!!

 

not "anonymous sources" again.