Guest valueInv Posted November 15, 2011 Share Posted November 15, 2011 the unwritten rule is that if you pay ComScore for their reporting, you might somehow rank better in their various reports. ComScore doesn’t matter to you unless you’re VC funded or a big company that is depending upon who ComScore says is top in a particular category for your valuation or ad rates. There is a minor conflict of interest here, I find that hard to believe. There has to be some basis to these number. They probably have some tolerance to fudging numbers but if they no connection with reality, Comscore would lose all credibility. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Uccmal Posted November 15, 2011 Share Posted November 15, 2011 Peter_burke, I would like to make you a bet. When Research in Motion reports their next results in a few weeks they will have more subscribers worldwide than they did at the end of the last quarter. I propose we each send Sanjeev $300 USD. Winner gets $500 and Sanjeev donates 100 to the crohn's and Colitus foundation which he donates Money to via his partnerhip. To reiterate: rimm will have more subscribers worldwide for the Quarter ending November. What do you think? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Smazz Posted November 15, 2011 Share Posted November 15, 2011 If you guys dont know how the comscores of this world make their $ than you are truley very green. Comscore must really have alot of credibility as RIM price is up close to 4% after their "report" lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Hester Posted November 15, 2011 Share Posted November 15, 2011 Peter_burke, I would like to make you a bet. When Research in Motion reports their next results in a few weeks they will have more subscribers worldwide than they did at the end of the last quarter. I propose we each send Sanjeev $300 USD. Winner gets $500 and Sanjeev donates 100 to the crohn's and Colitus foundation which he donates Money to via his partnerhip. To reiterate: rimm will have more subscribers worldwide for the Quarter ending November. What do you think? I'd take that bet but only if it's quarter over quarter. In other words I'd bet you how ever much money you want that they have less subscribers this quarter than they did same Q last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Uccmal Posted November 15, 2011 Share Posted November 15, 2011 Peter_burke, To reiterate: rimm will have more subscribers worldwide for the Quarter ending November. What do you think? haha. nice try. that doesn't drive shareholder value does it? it if did rimm would be $100 and not $19. As I figured. You wont back up your BS. I am fully serious. Put your money where your mouth is! Hester I will take a pass on your idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Smazz Posted November 15, 2011 Share Posted November 15, 2011 WOW, for some of you guys who were talking about how this ship is sinking you sure do back down quick. If you are talking about World Wide Subscribers Hester I think you should keep your $ in your pocket cause you will lose that bet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Hester Posted November 15, 2011 Share Posted November 15, 2011 RIMM options vol is very high right now. You can sell December 17.5 puts for $1.35, which I did yesterday. If you did that every month and the stock was flat in a year you'd make almost 100% return. The obvious risks apply... I've noticed the extreme vol. too. My problem is I think RIMM is probably close to being fairly valued. I think high teens PPS is a fair reward for the risk one has to take buying a tech stock with a short product cycle that is seeing their products starting to fade. However, the $8 Jan 13 Puts could recently be sold for over 80 cents (not any more). After a year of earnings (assuming no big acquisition) $8 would probably mean the stock is under NCAV. So one could make over 10% over the course of 14 months just betting the company is worth more than extreme liquidation value, which it is. I've been thinking of doing that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Hester Posted November 15, 2011 Share Posted November 15, 2011 RIMM options vol is very high right now. You can sell December 17.5 puts for $1.35, which I did yesterday. If you did that every month and the stock was flat in a year you'd make almost 100% return. The obvious risks apply... I've noticed the extreme vol. too. My problem is I think RIMM is probably close to being fairly valued. I think high teens PPS is a fair reward for the risk one has to take buying a tech stock with a short product cycle that is seeing their products starting to fade. However, the $8 Jan 13 Puts could recently be sold for over 80 cents (not any more). After a year of earnings (assuming no big acquisition) $8 would probably mean the stock is under NCAV. So one could make over 10% over the course of 14 months just betting the company is worth more than extreme liquidation value, which it is. I've been thinking of doing that. http://www.optionetics.com/marketdata/rankers.asp?freeRanker=yhhrankperc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Uccmal Posted November 15, 2011 Share Posted November 15, 2011 Sorry Peter. I wanted to challenge you to back up your constant blather and the only fair measure I could think of was subscriber growth. Suggest your own bet If you think I am childish. And since when does subscriber growth not related to long term income? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Uccmal Posted November 15, 2011 Share Posted November 15, 2011 You have alot of time on your hands Peter. That suggests to me that you are a kid, sitting at home with nothing better to do. You may have not been precisely right on anything yet and to claim you are shows a lack of maturity. I am offering you a reasonable bet and you lack the conviction to take it, or suggest your own. I invest with the long term in mind across a range of stocks. You have no idea what my long term record is. Suffice to say my long term success is not contingent on RIMs share price. Unless you suggest a reasonable counter bet I am done with you forever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cwericb Posted November 15, 2011 Share Posted November 15, 2011 Nice to see someone putting their money where their mouth is! Your move Mr. Burke! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beerbaron Posted November 18, 2011 Share Posted November 18, 2011 Anyone buying at 199$? I don't like to use tablets but heck at this price it's very tempting. The hardware is awesome for the price. http://www.sears.ca/product/blackberry-playbook8482-tablet-16gb/657-000595777-PLAYBOOK_4_16GB BeerBaron Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Smazz Posted November 18, 2011 Share Posted November 18, 2011 Anyone buying at 199$? I don't like to use tablets but heck at this price it's very tempting. The hardware is awesome for the price. http://www.sears.ca/product/blackberry-playbook8482-tablet-16gb/657-000595777-PLAYBOOK_4_16GB BeerBaron Only the DDB would buy an Ipad for $499 when you could get this for $199. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Liberty Posted November 18, 2011 Share Posted November 18, 2011 The iPad might be twice the price, but for many people it obviously provides more than twice the value of the Playbook. Otherwise, Apple wouldn't be selling all the iPad they can make... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCG Posted November 18, 2011 Share Posted November 18, 2011 Anyone buying at 199$? I don't like to use tablets but heck at this price it's very tempting. The hardware is awesome for the price. http://www.sears.ca/product/blackberry-playbook8482-tablet-16gb/657-000595777-PLAYBOOK_4_16GB BeerBaron Only the DDB would buy an Ipad for $499 when you could get this for $199. I spent much more than $499 for my iPad, and don't think I'd pay $99 for the Playbook. I'd rather spend more for a better product. How many apps are currently available for the Playbook? If I was going to spend $199 for a tablet, I'd get the Kindle Fire or a different Android tablet over the Playbook. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Uccmal Posted November 18, 2011 Share Posted November 18, 2011 Peter, i see you are still afraid to back your BS up with a bet. Too much time on your hands living in your mom's basement? You hang around alot of boards spouting off, eh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Liberty Posted November 18, 2011 Share Posted November 18, 2011 Peter, i see you are still afraid to back your BS up with a bet. Too much time on your hands living in your mom's basement? You hang around alot of boards spouting off, eh? Sounds like a false dichotomy to me. There are lots of things that I believe strongly but I wouldn't make bets about them with strangers on the internet. I'm not the betting kind. I think both Smazz's and Peter's comments can be low-info and trollish at times, but that doesn't change that not wanting to bet doesn't make what is said more or less valid. Otherwise, you could just use that strategy in any thread where someone disagrees with you; offer a bet, and if you are not taken up on it, claim victory. Personally, I wouldn't bet on RIM's future because I've said from the start that while I believe it's a pretty mismanaged company with mediocre products at this point, the stock could still turn out to be a money-maker at these levels. I just don't know, and that's why I'm not going either long or short on it. There are better opportunities out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Uccmal Posted November 18, 2011 Share Posted November 18, 2011 Liberty, with respect. The bet I proposed was using Sanjeev as a middleman. Peter brings down the quailty of this board and I am sick of him. This board is one of the very few where quality analysis has existed for years. As for Smazz, we survived a similar bashing of FFH years ago. He is equally tired of Peter's nonsense as are other members I have communicated with privately. So, I guess I asm stooping to his level which is unfortunate. I will knock it off. As for the playbook on sale. Apparently, they are sold out in Canada, and Best Buy/future shop has them on back order. Also, I dont know if anyone caught it the other day but BB opened a store in the suburbs of Jakarta this week and the line up was thousands. I dont believe they were paid to wait either :-). I wouldn't undersell their worldwide presence. Also, they quickly went from 7 million to 8 million subscribers in the UK. They are building a new plant in Malaysia. They are expanding plants in Brazil. In short they are not going down without one hell of a fight. So taking Breakeven or a slight loss on the playbook is the best move to get more devices in people's hands where they will buy apps and use the BB service which is what its all about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Liberty Posted November 18, 2011 Share Posted November 18, 2011 I get the impression that maybe a bias in favor of RIM blinds you to the fact that functionally, Smazz and Peter are the same person, just saying opposite things. "Blackberry is awesome/sucks!" Personally, I'm equally tired of the two. Saying that one brings down the quality of the board but not the other seems unfair. I'd like to see both of them only post when they have something 'material' to say about the company and tone down the rhetoric and hyperbole (ie. saying that only the dumb, deaf and blind would buy iPads vs cheaper Playbooks is totally inflammatory, IMHO). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCG Posted November 18, 2011 Share Posted November 18, 2011 So taking Breakeven or a slight loss on the playbook is the best move to get more devices in people's hands where they will buy apps and use the BB service which is what its all about. Not sure I agree with this. It's one thing for Amazon to sell the Kindle Fire at a loss, since they can tie customers into their ecosystem and get them to buy books, music and virtually everything else on Amazon, but I just don't see how focusing on selling apps would be a good idea for RIMM. For one, there aren't very many BB apps to sell, and most of the $ on app sales go to the developers. Maybe people liking the Playbook will get more people to buy BB phones, but who knows. They have to continue to spend on R&D for future tablets, and I think there's only so much you can spend on product development if they're selling the product for a loss or breakeven prices. I think they need to just focus on quality. People will pay up for the Playbook/BB phones if RIMM gives them a reason to. As much as I've attacked RIMM in this thread, I think there is still potential for them to turn their business around and restore the BB brand. I'm just not convinced their current management has any idea how to do that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Uccmal Posted November 18, 2011 Share Posted November 18, 2011 " I think they need to just focus on quality. People will pay up for the Playbook/BB phones if RIMM gives them a reason to. As much as I've attacked RIMM in this thread, I think there is still potential for them to turn their business around and restore the BB brand. I'm just not convinced their current management has any idea how to do that." Dcg, I dont disagree with you. I am not convinced either. I see enough value in it to have a speculative stake, but would never go all in. I have leaps with partial downside protection via puts. I do know that RIMM is aggressively moving into the social media space so there is some sort of strategy there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SharperDingaan Posted November 18, 2011 Share Posted November 18, 2011 We might all want to consider why RIM remains in the business they are in, & where their real value proposition probably lies. Message encryption so robust - that nations effectively have to ask them for the encryption key. Why sell to the masses based on price & ‘coolness’ - when you could sell proven secure communication directly to governments & get out of retail entirely. The ultimate ‘cool’ blackberry - price insensitive, government protection, etc – & one hell of a moat. SD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Smazz Posted November 18, 2011 Share Posted November 18, 2011 I get the impression that maybe a bias in favor of RIM blinds you to the fact that functionally, Smazz and Peter are the same person, just saying opposite things. "Blackberry is awesome/sucks!" Personally, I'm equally tired of the two. Saying that one brings down the quality of the board but not the other seems unfair. I'd like to see both of them only post when they have something 'material' to say about the company and tone down the rhetoric and hyperbole (ie. saying that only the dumb, deaf and blind would buy iPads vs cheaper Playbooks is totally inflammatory, IMHO). Hey Liberty, your comments would carry weight ONLY if you would have spouted off earlier when CEO stooge was puking out his non sense. Now its falling on deaf ears. I could ask you and he the same thing: If you are not betting long or short on this company why the affection for this thread? I say just to cause shit. Sorry, if you did your homework you will know ive been on this board for a long time and have never made posts like this person before he came in here with non -info type stuff. And speaking of non info you havent exactly been dazzling us with data here either. You are a big Apple fan - why the affection for this thread when you prob think this company is dead? Maybe you guys have some special bond - who knows. Your apology on his behalf a bit ago had our heads shaking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Uccmal Posted November 18, 2011 Share Posted November 18, 2011 Peter, Peter, End of topic. You are a waste of breathe! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Green King Posted November 19, 2011 Share Posted November 19, 2011 why are you guys fighting over this ? If you think you are right, time will tell. why would it matter who wins the argument now? The most important thing Warren Learned from his dad It doesn't matter what other sees you outside, what matters what you are inside. (Can't find the exact words.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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