BB - BlackBerry

[Liberty]

http://www.thestar.com/business/companies/rim/article/977793--playbook-shakes-off-bad-press

 

Not sure I believe those numbers, so take it with a grain of salt.

[Guest Bronco]

Let's cut the BS - anyone here buying a Playbook?

 

How many have Ipads?  My family has 2.

 

This POS is DOA.

[Guest Bronco]

Ipad sales weak for the quarter.  Most analysts are saying that users refused to buy an ipad in the anticipation of the RIMM Playbill.

[DCG]

Ipad sales weak for the quarter.  Most analysts are saying that users refused to buy an ipad in the anticipation of the RIMM Playbill.

 

I've yet to meet a single person who's mentioned the possibility of buying a Playbook. Almost everyone wants an iPad. Those who don't are waiting for better Android tablets to come out. Weak iPad sales are due to the fact that they've been unable to sell them for a while, due to shortages due to Japan.

 

-Oh, and most analysts are idiots.

[Viking]

Looks like Playbook is selling well. Of course it is not outselling the I-Pad (only an idiot would expect that). The Playbook looks to be a strong device and should outsell other 7" devices and is differentiated enough from the I-Pad to become a solid (profitable) product for RIMM.

 

I look forward to Blackberry World in early May to see what else RIM has up their sleeve; based on what has been leaked they look to have a solid group of new phones coming. July is when they will again be able to repurchase stock; with all their free cash flow I expect them to buy back a bunch of stock fast (same as last year).

 

http://www.ibtimes.com/articles/136356/20110420/research-in-motion-blackberry-playbook-motorola-xoom-launch-at-t-best-buy-staples-apple-inc-ipad-ipa.htm 

[FlyingArrow]

Let's cut the BS - anyone here buying a Playbook?

 

How many have Ipads?  My family has 2.

 

This POS is DOA.

 

OK I'll bite. I bought my kids ipads - 2 of them so I know them inside out.

 

I just bought my playbook yesterday. I love it.

 

Ipad sales weak for the quarter.  Most analysts are saying that users refused to buy an ipad in the anticipation of the RIMM Playbill.

 

I've yet to meet a single person who's mentioned the possibility of buying a Playbook. Almost everyone wants an iPad. Those who don't are waiting for better Android tablets to come out. Weak iPad sales are due to the fact that they've been unable to sell them for a while, due to shortages due to Japan.

 

-Oh, and most analysts are idiots.

 

Pleased to meet you sir... I'd be the one you've now met who was planning to and has bought one.

 

My kids have iPads. I don't want one for myself.

 

I take analysts comments with a heavy grain of salt. Personally I can't believe the amount of noise and nonsense being written on the playbook and tablets in general.

 

Looks like Playbook is selling well. Of course it is not outselling the I-Pad (only an idiot would expect that). The Playbook looks to be a strong device and should outsell other 7" devices and is differentiated enough from the I-Pad to become a solid (profitable) product for RIMM.

 

I look forward to Blackberry World in early May to see what else RIM has up their sleeve; based on what has been leaked they look to have a solid group of new phones coming. July is when they will again be able to repurchase stock; with all their free cash flow I expect them to buy back a bunch of stock fast (same as last year).

 

http://www.ibtimes.com/articles/136356/20110420/research-in-motion-blackberry-playbook-motorola-xoom-launch-at-t-best-buy-staples-apple-inc-ipad-ipa.htm 

 

Clearly we have very polarized views. I posted my thoughts some time ago and backed them up with a meaningful position. And I own a Playbook now along with iPads in a MAC household.

 

As a corporate Blackberry user (Torch 9800) the Playbook is perfect for me. I don't have time for a detailed write up at the moment but here's some thoughts:

 

1. I had to visit 3 stores in Toronto to find a 16gb Playbook in stock. Most had 64gb versions but were sold out of the 16 and 32's

2. The first store I visited said they sold out of their 100 pre-orders and also what they got for stock (he didn't know how many that was)

3. I thought presentation and sales staff knowledge at both Best Buy and Future shop was poor.

4. I believe buyers are likely corporate types like me who don't need or care about presentation or sales people but walk in and just buy it. It was interesting that one guy I met looking at the device was an iPhone user. He was going to buy a 16gb when he could find one. I should have quizzed him more on his motivations.

5. I was pleased with the packaging and presentation and it reminded me of how good Apple is at this. RIM has gone to school in this area.

6. Set up could not have been easier. It saw my wi-fi and I logged on. It let me scan a bar code from my torch to automatically load the bridge software on my Torch. The devices synched right away. I was live with full functionality of all my corporate email, contacts, calendar, etc. in minutes.

6. Both the browser using wi-fi or the tethered connection from my phone worked as advertised and performed really well. The browser is amazing and multitasking is really powerful.

7. I did all my email that I would have done today on my torch using the playbook. That was a treat. And the size is such that you can use your thumbs on the keyboard like you do on your regular Blackberry device so I actually like the soft keyboard on the playbook. Much more productive than soft keyboards on larger tablets including ipad which I generally dislike

8. I went out for a coffee and my Playbook fit in the breast pocket of my leather jacket. Unobtrusive. You feel very comfortable taking it with you. I would never do that with an ipad.

9. Browsing the internet, movies, multitasking, you tube, flash etc all work great. The device has amazing video in HD. Much better than the ipad and it feels bigger than it is.

10. The iPad is a great app device and the kids love it. I don't need or use a device for much in that area so no big deal for me. For the forseeable future I will still need to carry a laptop on business. The last thing I want to do is carry around an ipad as well. Too big. The playbook is a no brainer for me.

11. All of the stuff running around the internet about not being finished, no email, no 3g etc etc. is noise for me. I like that is has no 3g and I don't have to pay for a separate plan. I will use this thing big time for personal use but it's covered under my corporate phone plan. Plus most of the places I sit and surf have wifi anyway. I didn't buy our ipads with 3g either.

12. There is no involvement needed from my corporate IT folks (and I work for a fortune 50 company). It just worked out of the box.

13. The bashing going on now with RIM reminds me a bit of the bashing FFH got a few years back. The big Canadian company who had stumbled and was "going to zero". Personally I don't think so. I think the ones doing the bashing have gone short RIM and Long apple and they have an agenda to push.

 

I'm not bashing the iPad. They are great for certain things. But I could never use one for what I intend to use my Playbook for. Different strokes for different folks. There may be one or two more like me...

 

Personally I think RIM will nail the corporate market. I think next they will then start to pick up a following from people (many teens) who use blackberry's for BBM. That will be on the playbook shortly. I don't need them to challenge apple for the entire consumer space. They will do just fine with 15-20% of the increasing tablet market. That would be pretty cool.

 

And yes. I am long RIM. Very long.....

[Smazz]

^ nice write up right there.

 

I agree that alot of drama comes from the retail end yet RIM is geared to corporate.

 

Should be interesting.

 

Disclaimer: I dont own either (phone).  Yes, there are a few of us knuckle draggers still around! ;D

[Guest Bronco]

I wouldn't touch RIMM as an investment but thanks for keeping the debate balanced.

 

I was only kidding about analysts suggesting that people held off on buying Ipads to purchase the playbill (again, intentional mispelling). 

 

I am sure RIMM will generate cash flow for a while but I don't see this company as a long-term winner, just my opinion.  However, you presented your case intelligently and like a complete gentleman - for that I appreciate your synposis of the product.

[Liberty]

The civilized debate here warms the cockles of my heart  ;D

[hyten1]

here is something to think about.

 

i remember back in the day when palm pilot were all the rage, everyone had one, so did I.

 

but at the time i also had a cell phone (the flip startek). in the end cell phone won out, I had hard time carrying both everywhere with me, over time, little by little, i would forget or be annoyed that i had to carry my cell phone and palm pilot. i ended up always carry my cell around and left the palm pilot behind.

 

in the end we all know what happen, now you have a smartphone.

 

i think this is very similar tot he laptop and tablet senarios. If i need to carry both my laptop and tablet, i guess at the end of the day the laptop will prob win out.

 

but similar to cell phone/palm pilot. I think laptop and tablet will merge into one device.

 

i don't want to carry 2 device, that just doesn't make sense

 

now how this happens and who will win out, who knows, but we all know who the players are, let the battle begin

 

 

[Guest Bronco]

I just don't see the advantage to owning RIMM over Apple. 

 

Apple under $330 to me is a screaming buy.  And quite frankly, an easy stock to trade (the only stock I really trade is Apple).

 

Apple has a much better balance sheet, more diverse products, and better growth prospects.  Unless of course RIMM will come out with a TV set that has that classic shitty blackberry keyboard on it (to match Apple's future TV). 

 

Lets be honest - Apple has destroyed everyone - google, miscrosoft, nokia, etc. - when it comes to innovation.  Everyone.  The real question is how long this "first mover" advantage will last.  No doubt it will last for a while though.

 

 

 

 

[ericd1]

RIM will do well in the corporate market, which definitely isn't Appleland. We're a Blackberry family (5) and own one Ipad w/o mobile connectivity. Being able to tether the Playbook to my phone and do email and access the web sounds great to me. I'm going to take a hard look. Wonder what resale is on my iPad?

 

No expert here, but I read somewhere that one of the benefits of the Playbook is the operating system, which will be used in the next version of Blackberry's...I know my BB takes a backseat to the iPhone, but perhaps the new os will bring my next BB up to par.

 

I don't have an opinion on the stock

 

 

[Viking]

Bronco, I was reading an article that was guessing that Apple is close to launching its next big consumer innovation... it went on to say that current mid term forecasts will prove to be much too low. I say bring it on... the more innovation the better!

[Uccmal]

Look Bronco, Rim stock is dirt cheap right now.  I just bought some 2013s a week or so ago - a significant position.  Apple is the second largest company in the S&P 500 by market cap - ahead of GE, MSFT, JNJ.  That is just not right.  Buffett's comment about trees not growing to the sky keeps coing to mind. 

 

Since so much of this thread is anecdotal I will add one.  I was at a meeting for message board members, and subsequently at the FFH AGM.  I see an awful lot of BBs in the crowd.  I also see alot of kids everywhere using BBs.  I am certain that very soon I will also see alot of Playbooks around.  Maybe this is due to being in Canada but Mark, and Woodstove above have indicated similar observations. 

 

RE: Apple:  I have a Mac - about 1.5 years old.  I like it to a point but quite frankly it is a royal pain in the ass at times.  Because so much of the software is propreitary to Apple there are always things I cant run on it.  Safari is a dreadful browser, and I detest being directed toward the Apple marketing machine.  I absolutely would not buy one again, and I will not buy an Ipad or Ipod for the same reasons. 

 

In this I am sure I am not alone.  I am going to give the playbook a month or two to debug and then give it a shot.  I think Apples achilles heel is probably its obsession to keep everything proprietary.  Anyway, for a value investor Apple is out of my league and RIM is right in it. 

[Investmentacct]

  I absolutely would not buy one again, and I will not buy an Ipad or Ipod for the same reasons. 

 

Re iPad.

 

Have used iPad 1 and iPad 2. Just replaced iphone with ipad 2 and went back to regular phone for calling.

Skype calls video on iPad 2 3G is just amazing thing. You are connected anywhere anytime with video calls available all the time with anyone who's on skype.  We have friends and relatives all across time zones, this seems to be best way to connect because of mobility. With ipad's help, and have growing kids , it's very easy to stay in touch with grand parents through video calls anywhere. They can see their schools, appreciate their crafts and work etc. Or attending birthdays while being away. Almost interwoven with every moment of your life. I have not been amazed like this probably 11 yrs back while using google first time in university for college work. Makes thing easier and accessible many more times than windows machine. Have 3 windows laptops. Most of them

never able to open now a days as ipad meets almost all need.  I find it so easy to navigate through it in the car, so that I see why anyone would pay very high bucks for all of the added functionalities of luxury cars.

As you can play video, radio and browse, tweeter feed n all through one device.

 

It seem to make life easier and saves much time.

 

You might give it a try.  Although, agree with you, others will catch up, but for this moment , apple has leap.

 

 

This is conversation between me and my 3 & 1/2 year daughter:

Me: I love you

Her: Yup, I love daddy .... iPad.

 

 

 

 

 

[Viking]

Investmentacct, my read is the Ipad will eat into laptop sales. At the other end of the spectrum you have smartphones. I see the playbook as a device in the middle satisfying a different set of needs than the Ipad or smartphones (with portability being at the top of the list). I think it will take time for people to really understand its differentiation and its utility (its new!) and as they do (and RIM launches the bells and whistles) I see sentiment changing.

 

Here is a great comparison of Ipad with Playbook; first rational summary I have seen http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/875598-sheshagiri-paplikar/165381-ipad2-vs-playbook-head-to-head  

[Investmentacct]

>>  I just bought some 2013s a week or so ago - a significant position.

 

Al,

 

If possible, Could you please elaborate on the trade.

 

Thanks.

 

[Guest valueInv]

I just don't see the advantage to owning RIMM over Apple. 

 

Apple under $330 to me is a screaming buy.  And quite frankly, an easy stock to trade (the only stock I really trade is Apple).

 

Apple has a much better balance sheet, more diverse products, and better growth prospects.  Unless of course RIMM will come out with a TV set that has that classic shitty blackberry keyboard on it (to match Apple's future TV). 

 

Lets be honest - Apple has destroyed everyone - google, miscrosoft, nokia, etc. - when it comes to innovation.  Everyone.  The real question is how long this "first mover" advantage will last.  No doubt it will last for a while though.

 

 

 

 

 

The advantage will last as long as Apple keeps moving. People assume that Apple is standing still while everyone else will catch up. That's not what recent history indicates. Apple is innovating faster than anyone else. Other companies make copies of apple products. For them to do so, Apple has to release the original in the first place. When others  do try to out innovate Apple they fall flat. Anyone remember GoogleTV? Where is ChromeOS? Or that laptop like device that Palm created?

 

While everyone is tracking smartphone and tablets, Apple is dreaming up the next big category to take over. Apple did make mistakes with the iPhone. They didn't repeat them with the iPad.

 

 

[Guest Bronco]

Debate is good, but I don't see RIMM being much cheaper than Apple.  Maybe if RIMM can grow at a faster pace, but it just isn't for me. 

 

At sounds like the Playbill has some nice features - I like what one user said about syncing.  This may be the one weak point currently with apple products - getting work email on iphone/ipad.

 

But the innovation out of Apple compared to RIMM is a complete joke.  Doesn't mean RIMM won't survive.  Maybe it will do quite well.  But there is an added risk with RIMM that Apple doesn't have.  The pure risk with Apple right now is Steve Jobs.

 

2 or 3 years, this could all change.  The good news for RIMM is that every company I go to (and I have been around the corporate block) - they issue a BBerry which I always shelve.  But every company I have been to - GE, MS, CBS, Pfizer, and now my current employer - all issue blackberries.

 

If apple gets into corporate, it will be a game changer.  RIMM will be done.  But RIMM is probably safe until then. 

 

I recognize the law of large #'s will catch up to Apple as well.  That is a future event.  That is why I appreciate they aren't doing any stupid buybacks.  The cash hoard will keep the stock up.  When they start buying back shares - I'm out.  For good. 

 

 

 

[Rabbitisrich]

 

 

I recognize the law of large #'s will catch up to Apple as well.  That is a future event.  That is why I appreciate they aren't doing any stupid buybacks.  The cash hoard will keep the stock up.  When they start buying back shares - I'm out.  For good. 

 

 

 

 

Why would you rather that Apple hold cash instead of purchasing presumably undervalued shares?

[Guest Bronco]

I'm not going there.

 

Instead, look at MSFT, DELL, et al and look at the wonderful impact the buybacks have done to bolster the share prices from their prime time as companies until now.

 

The cash on hand bolsters the share price, no matter what anyone says.  The buybacks may or may not impact the share price, my guess is it would cause long-term damage.

 

I'm in a minority in my opinions but that is ok b/c I am right.

 

 

 

 

[Guest VAL9000]

The advantage will last as long as Apple keeps moving. People assume that Apple is standing still while everyone else will catch up. That's not what recent history indicates. Apple is innovating faster than anyone else.

 

This is the main thing that makes Apple a darling.  They are leading the world in mobile and media innovation and I don't think anyone can dispute that.  Their recent history of hits has been world-beating.  They've also done a great job of leveraging one technology into the next: iPod -> iPhone -> iPad.  It's fascinating to watch.

 

It's also unsustainable.  The premise of the bet is that Apple can continue to out-innovate the rest of the world.  It's not possible.  There's mean-reversion to innovation and we've seen that everywhere in tech.  Eventually they`ll need to hang their hat on an advantage that`s more sustainable than innovation.  So having a sticky platform is critical for maintaining a long-term advantage (the platform is the moat), and nobody has figured out better than Apple how to do this (yet - my hopes are still on Android for reasons aforementioned).

 

RIM is subject to the exact same market forces.  In order to win long term, they need to have a compelling platform.  QNX (the OS) is a good move in that direction, but there are huge gaps that they will need to address.  I mentioned that I think this is a winner-take-all scenario (harking to Hyten`s comments on single-device dependence), and if that`s the case they can`t only focus on the corporate side of things.  RIM`s platform pitch of `most secure` is underwhelming.  Linux is more secure than Windows, but makes up less than 20% of the corporate server market.  RIM needs to hustle on media, app ecosystem and payment for a complete platform.  Apple needs to hustle on security because really those devices are a joke to break into (six seconds for an iPad).  Android has a lot of half baked bits and needs to work on everything.

 

And I`ll drop this line again because I like it so much: skate to where the puck is going to be.

[Guest Bronco]

Do you mean I have to skate behind Luongo?

[DCG]

Thanks for the writeup Viking.

 

My negative feeling toward RIM really has less to do with the Playbook, and more to do with the BB operating system. If they can move the new operating system onto the Blackberry, there might still be some hope for them. They went through a very long (for a tech company) period with pretty much zero innovation. The BB operating system was good around ten years ago, and they have done almost nothing to improve it in years, while Apple and Google have blown past it. The BB operating system is horrible compared to iOS and Android. They have been able to keep some customers because 1: a lot of people are afraid of change and having to learn a new system, 2: their companies require them to use their product and 3: some people like their physical keyboards (which are good - but you can now get Android phones with physical keyboards).

 

While they still have a strong hold on the corporate market, more and more large organizations are continuing to support iPhones.  I up until recently worked for a fortune 100 company with around 30,000 employees that recently ditched the blackberry for the iPhone for employees.

 

Regarding a few other comments in this thread, being able to tether your BB to your Playbook is not a good thing. It's good to have that option, but requiring it is just a bad decision. It simply discourages none BB owners from buying a Playbook until they fix that.

 

Regarding Safari, I don't see how it is a terrible browser. I use both Chrome and Safari as my main browsers and think Safari is generally very good. It doesn't have as many bells & whistles as other browsers, but works well. Part of my browser opinions come from being a bit of a web designer. The main point of browsers are to display websites/information as they are designed to be displayed. I'd say Safari and Chrome are probably the top 2 browsers in that regard. IE has been a nightmare for web designers to code for over the years.

 

Bronco - Getting work email on iPhones and iPads is very easy and works great in my experience.

 

Regarding Apple's use of cash; well, they could just buy RIM and shut down their business (or convert their customers to iPhone users) if they really wanted to, and still have a lot of cash left over. Being that most large companies have terrible timing when buying back their own shares, I have no problem with them not buying shares. Apple has done a great job at not foolishly spending cash like most other large tech companies (would you rather waste their cash on one horrendous acquisition after another like companies like Cisco, Yahoo AOl and many others constantly do?

 

 

[DCG]

It's also unsustainable.  The premise of the bet is that Apple can continue to out-innovate the rest of the world.  It's not possible.

 

 

I think it's possible as long as the current leadership team is intact, including Steve Jobs. Nothing last forever, but there are no signs of them losing their ability to innovate better and faster than every other company in the world right now. They have a tremendous talent pool, $ to put into R&D, exceptional leadership, a great supply chain, and a scale that allows them price products more competitively than their competitors.

 

Side note: I highly recommend the book 'The Innovation Secrets of Steve Jobs' for anyone interested in technology or just business in general. It goes beyond innovation, but is a great look at their processes of innovation (and it's really more about Apple as a company, and overall product innovation, than just about Steve Jobs - They used Jobs' name in the title for the same reason Buffett's name gets put into so many book titles about investing).

 

http://www.amazon.com/Innovation-Secrets-Steve-Jobs-Breakthrough/dp/007174875X/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&s=books&qid=1303481238&sr=8-1