DCG Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 Samsung, Android, and to a lesser degree Apple, are the golden ones right now. Samsung? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCG Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 I just think its funny that Samsung's goal with Android is to try to make it as much of an iPhone clone as they possibly can. They do have strong market share right now though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCG Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 sorry...didn't mean to end that with a question mark. I know they have strong market share right now, and I'd say them and HTC are at the top in terms of quality of Android devices. But they have tried to replicate much of the iPhone design with their Android devices (and why they've been in legal battles with Apple). They've been doing it since they started with Android. http://cdn.thetechjournal.com/wp-content/uploads/images/1106/1308936372-again-apple-sues-samsung-for-copy-iphone-3-design-1.jpg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Liberty Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 http://business.financialpost.com/2011/12/28/rim-offers-hefty-discounts-on-playbook-in-india/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest misterstockwell Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 I can't see how it is worth anything. The so-called "moats" of RIMM, the messenger service and the security, are both easily replicated via software. The phones are unattractive and lack an ecosystem, the developers have abandoned ship, and the "moats" are easily breached. I don't get the attraction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
txlaw Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 I can't see how it is worth anything. The so-called "moats" of RIMM, the messenger service and the security, are both easily replicated via software. The phones are unattractive and lack an ecosystem, the developers have abandoned ship, and the "moats" are easily breached. I don't get the attraction. Surely, you don't literally mean that RIMM is worth nothing -- right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Liberty Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 http://www.macrumors.com/2011/12/29/apple-and-android-gain-smartphone-marketshare-at-expense-of-rim-and-microsoft/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stahleyp Posted January 2, 2012 Share Posted January 2, 2012 Who here things Apple will continue to have a strangle hold in the market they do now in 5 years? I do not. From nearly everything I've read (I may be saying this prematurely since I've not yet read Job's biography) but it seems he was crucial to the design and soul of the company. When the driving force is no longer with the firm, I don't see how it can continue. I can see it with a Berkshire since Berkshire sell ice cream, candy, and insurance...but it's much less clear with a bleeding edge technology company. So, let's say Apple, hypothetically is no longer the major innovator...who will it be? I'd guess RIMM or NOK. Remember, before the iPhone no one was going to overtake RIMM either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
racemize Posted January 2, 2012 Share Posted January 2, 2012 Who here things Apple will continue to have a strangle hold in the market they do now in 5 years? I do not. From nearly everything I've read (I may be saying this prematurely since I've not yet read Job's biography) but it seems he was crucial to the design and soul of the company. When the driving force is no longer with the firm, I don't see how it can continue. I can see it with a Berkshire since Berkshire sell ice cream, candy, and insurance...but it's much less clear with a bleeding edge technology company. So, let's say Apple, hypothetically is no longer the major innovator...who will it be? I'd guess RIMM or NOK. Remember, before the iPhone no one was going to overtake RIMM either. In five years, I see it as: 1) Android Market (HTC/Samsung/whoever else) 2) Apple 3) Not sure, but MSFT has a shot. Maybe RIM if they can shape up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stahleyp Posted January 2, 2012 Share Posted January 2, 2012 I totally agree that Android should be number one. I was thinking more on the lines of innovation. NOK and RIMM have some life left, yet people are basically looking at them as if they're dead. I disagree. It's amazing what people and companies can do when they have to perform and not rest on their laurels. NOK has some interesting concepts though. Apple can rest on its laurels and its visionary is gone. Does anyone know any cutting edge/innovative company that was still cutting edge after its visionary left? Microsoft is a former shell of itself as is Intel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ExpectedValue Posted January 2, 2012 Share Posted January 2, 2012 Who here things Apple will continue to have a strangle hold in the market they do now in 5 years? I do not. From nearly everything I've read (I may be saying this prematurely since I've not yet read Job's biography) but it seems he was crucial to the design and soul of the company. When the driving force is no longer with the firm, I don't see how it can continue. I can see it with a Berkshire since Berkshire sell ice cream, candy, and insurance...but it's much less clear with a bleeding edge technology company. So, let's say Apple, hypothetically is no longer the major innovator...who will it be? I'd guess RIMM or NOK. Remember, before the iPhone no one was going to overtake RIMM either. I would bet my own money against RIMM or NOK somehow becoming innovators again. Are there many cases where a tech company somehow manages to turnaround and re-emerge as an innovator in their field? Other than Steve Jobs with Apple, I can't think of any off the top of my head. Both companies above have made really disastrous missteps which make it unlikely that they'll be able to turnaround. As for Apple, it's tough to say whether or not they'll stay on top. I would suggest you spend some time reading about Jony Ive before you make any presumptions about the company's leadership in design. I think with Jony Ive heading design and Tim Cook working on the supply chain/operations side of things Apple could continue to stay a leader in mobile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
roundball100 Posted January 2, 2012 Share Posted January 2, 2012 Who here [...] Remember, before the iPhone no one was going to overtake RIMM either. [...] I think with Jony Ive heading design and Tim Cook working on the supply chain/operations side of things Apple could continue to stay a leader in mobile. Make that: Sir Jony Ive http://news.cnet.com/8301-13579_3-57350568-37/apple-designer-ive-becomes-sir-jony/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stahleyp Posted January 2, 2012 Share Posted January 2, 2012 Who here things Apple will continue to have a strangle hold in the market they do now in 5 years? I do not. From nearly everything I've read (I may be saying this prematurely since I've not yet read Job's biography) but it seems he was crucial to the design and soul of the company. When the driving force is no longer with the firm, I don't see how it can continue. I can see it with a Berkshire since Berkshire sell ice cream, candy, and insurance...but it's much less clear with a bleeding edge technology company. So, let's say Apple, hypothetically is no longer the major innovator...who will it be? I'd guess RIMM or NOK. Remember, before the iPhone no one was going to overtake RIMM either. why would two companies that are failing suddenly become innovators? that just doesn't seem plausible. the companies are in distress. people don't know if they will have jobs. the stocks have been crushed. the good employees will leave. rimm's last real innovation was push email years ago. it's now a free commodity. nokia is too bureaucratic and plodding. now Microsoft is supplying the intellectual property. I'll freely admit that I'm stretching a bit on this. But if we think about it, I would imagine that RIMM's founders see RIMM much in the same was as Jobs saw AAPL - the reason for living. It's much the same as any stressful encounter in that you're forced to change. I'm looking at it as a overweight guy who had a heart attack. Many, many times (though not always!) that forces people to look at their lives and make drastic changes. I have no idea if RIMM will be successful. I look at it this way: we have very determined management with a history (not lately!) of success with a ton on the line. The stock is dirt cheap on about any valuation metric. The main driving force of the industry (Jobs) is no longer around. They're also in a quickly growing industry. That spells opportunity. As anything else it's not opportunity with no risk, mind you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCG Posted January 2, 2012 Share Posted January 2, 2012 Apple can rest on its laurels and its visionary is gone. Does anyone know any cutting edge/innovative company that was still cutting edge after its visionary left? Well, Pixar has done just fine without Steve Jobs running the company. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Liberty Posted January 2, 2012 Share Posted January 2, 2012 Apple can rest on its laurels and its visionary is gone. Does anyone know any cutting edge/innovative company that was still cutting edge after its visionary left? Well, Pixar has done just fine without Steve Jobs running the company. John Lassiter (sp) is Pixar's visionary, though. Jobs helped, but he was never as involved as with Apple. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCG Posted January 2, 2012 Share Posted January 2, 2012 Who here things Apple will continue to have a strangle hold in the market they do now in 5 years? I do not. From nearly everything I've read (I may be saying this prematurely since I've not yet read Job's biography) but it seems he was crucial to the design and soul of the company. When the driving force is no longer with the firm, I don't see how it can continue. I can see it with a Berkshire since Berkshire sell ice cream, candy, and insurance...but it's much less clear with a bleeding edge technology company. So, let's say Apple, hypothetically is no longer the major innovator...who will it be? I'd guess RIMM or NOK. Remember, before the iPhone no one was going to overtake RIMM either. I wouldn't say that Apple currently has a 'strangle hold' on the market right now, but I think they will continue to do well over or at least the next 5 years. If you read the Jobs biography, you'll see that much of Jobs' focus for much of the last decade was to create a company that can thrive without him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
S2S Posted January 2, 2012 Share Posted January 2, 2012 I'll freely admit that I'm stretching a bit on this. But if we think about it, I would imagine that RIMM's founders see RIMM much in the same was as Jobs saw AAPL - the reason for living. It's much the same as any stressful encounter in that you're forced to change. I'm looking at it as a overweight guy who had a heart attack. Many, many times (though not always!) that forces people to look at their lives and make drastic changes. I have no idea if RIMM will be successful. I look at it this way: we have very determined management with a history (not lately!) of success with a ton on the line. The stock is dirt cheap on about any valuation metric. The main driving force of the industry (Jobs) is no longer around. They're also in a quickly growing industry. That spells opportunity. As anything else it's not opportunity with no risk, mind you. I won't pretend to have any authority over forecasting, but your vision seems wildly optimistic. I don't get how you can handicap RIMM or NOK's chance of success to be better than AAPL's five year from now. For every heartfelt comeback story such as Jobs' Apple, there are dozens of Polaroid, Xerox etc. By the way, you could buy AAPL for just around 10x forward earnings not too long ago. Better yet, its earning isn't shrinking and cash flow isn't insignificant... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCG Posted January 2, 2012 Share Posted January 2, 2012 John Lassiter (sp) is Pixar's visionary, though. Jobs helped, but he was never as involved as with Apple. True, but at the same time, Jobs wasn't able to be very involved with Apple over the last 3 or so years either. Yeah, he was involved in most major decisions, but its mostly been guys like Cook and Ive running the company over the last few years, and the company has done very well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Hester Posted January 2, 2012 Share Posted January 2, 2012 Who here things Apple will continue to have a strangle hold in the market they do now in 5 years? I do not. From nearly everything I've read (I may be saying this prematurely since I've not yet read Job's biography) but it seems he was crucial to the design and soul of the company. When the driving force is no longer with the firm, I don't see how it can continue. I can see it with a Berkshire since Berkshire sell ice cream, candy, and insurance...but it's much less clear with a bleeding edge technology company. So, let's say Apple, hypothetically is no longer the major innovator...who will it be? I'd guess RIMM or NOK. Remember, before the iPhone no one was going to overtake RIMM either. why would two companies that are failing suddenly become innovators? that just doesn't seem plausible. the companies are in distress. people don't know if they will have jobs. the stocks have been crushed. the good employees will leave. rimm's last real innovation was push email years ago. it's now a free commodity. nokia is too bureaucratic and plodding. now Microsoft is supplying the intellectual property. I'll freely admit that I'm stretching a bit on this. But if we think about it, I would imagine that RIMM's founders see RIMM much in the same was as Jobs saw AAPL - the reason for living. It's much the same as any stressful encounter in that you're forced to change. I'm looking at it as a overweight guy who had a heart attack. Many, many times (though not always!) that forces people to look at their lives and make drastic changes. I have no idea if RIMM will be successful. I look at it this way: we have very determined management with a history (not lately!) of success with a ton on the line. The stock is dirt cheap on about any valuation metric. The main driving force of the industry (Jobs) is no longer around. They're also in a quickly growing industry. That spells opportunity. As anything else it's not opportunity with no risk, mind you. Past technology didn't fall out of favor or become obsolete just because time passed, it fell out because it was replaced by something else, something new and better. So the conclusion that Apple's products will just become obsolete in 5 years and there will be an open spot for innovation is odd. Assuming RIMM is going to fill an innovation niche is even more odd and unlikely. Even if that incredibly far fetched scenario becomes true, it is going to take a long time. Apple can probably coast on their current products with a few minimal changes/upgrades for at least another 4 or 5 years. So if that's the case you have another half a decade of lackluster performance from RIMM, not something I'd get in front of as an investor. Buffett talks about finding 1 foot hurdles. You are trying to pole vault. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stahleyp Posted January 2, 2012 Share Posted January 2, 2012 I'll freely admit that I'm stretching a bit on this. But if we think about it, I would imagine that RIMM's founders see RIMM much in the same was as Jobs saw AAPL - the reason for living. It's much the same as any stressful encounter in that you're forced to change. I'm looking at it as a overweight guy who had a heart attack. Many, many times (though not always!) that forces people to look at their lives and make drastic changes. I have no idea if RIMM will be successful. I look at it this way: we have very determined management with a history (not lately!) of success with a ton on the line. The stock is dirt cheap on about any valuation metric. The main driving force of the industry (Jobs) is no longer around. They're also in a quickly growing industry. That spells opportunity. As anything else it's not opportunity with no risk, mind you. I won't pretend to have any authority over forecasting, but your vision seems wildly optimistic. I don't get how you can handicap RIMM or NOK's chance of success to be better than AAPL's five year from now. For every heartfelt comeback story such as Jobs' Apple, there are dozens of Polaroid, Xerox etc. By the way, you could buy AAPL for just around 10x forward earnings not too long ago. Better yet, its earning isn't shrinking and cash flow isn't insignificant... I don't see how RIMM not going out of business is wildly optimistic. The market is basically pricing them as if that's the case. By no means am I saying that AAPL is expensive. I fail to see why people are so confident in it though. The guiding force is gone. This is a crazy, innovative industry. Historically speaking, AAPL without Jobs was an also-ran. Four of five years ago AAPL came out of no where to take the smartphone world away from RIMM. RIMM was unstoppable. I've yet to open up a position, but the more and more I think about it, the more intrigued I am about the possibility. I'll fully admit this would be rather speculative, but certainly an asymmetrical trade. Hester, some valid points. I am not looking at RIMM as a business I plan on holding for the next 10 years. I'm not looking at them to overtake AAPL or Android or anything like that. I'm simply looking for them to not suck. I'd caution you about AAPL not becoming obsolete. Look at what happens to major people in the technology field in a short period of time. I'm not saying that it will certainly happen. I'd certainly not say that if Jobs were alive. But I also know it's almost never a good idea to bet that genius will keeping happening when the genius is no longer around. If RIMM can stop sucking, I can not see when the stock would not be worth something significantly more than it is now. I wouldn't consider this a pole vault or miracle by any means. What would you guys pay for RIMM assuming they weren't going out of business? Slow and/or no growth, ie not great but not suck either (okayyy no growth is kinda high on the suck scale). Would you pay 7x earnings? 10x? Let's assume they have earnings of $1 billion (about 60% lower than where they are now). Combine that with the patents, take out the cash on balance sheet, any real estate they might own, etc, you don't think the company is worth at least $8 billion market cap (and perhaps significantly more)? I feel like a lot of value guys have gotten burned on this and now feel that it's no good at almost any price. As I said before, it's not risk free. There is always risk. However, I feel that the risk and reward trade off is certainly there. I would love to see it again at the pre-takeover rumor price again. Not sure if we'll get back to that price. In time we shall see, I suppose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stahleyp Posted January 2, 2012 Share Posted January 2, 2012 $1b of earnings? how about $1b of losses? are you a student of history? if not let me give you some high tech history. Once a formerly profitable high tech company loses it's mojo, that is they fall behind and never catch up again, they routinely start losing money and never start making it again. That could happen to rimm. it may not but it could. You just seem to think this is some kind of no brainer. it's not. tech is different. companies can begin to lose money over night. Some say that outside of subs rimm is losing money on devices. Rimm could be losing money on a gaap basis this year. ps: since when is a $7b market cap a going out of business price? I'm well aware that the mojo might never come back. Their magic doesn't have to come back for this to be worthwhile. Peter, what would you pay for the company right now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ExpectedValue Posted January 2, 2012 Share Posted January 2, 2012 I once watched a talk from Joel Greenblatt's class at Columbia, where a fund manager came in to give a talk on investing in dying businesses. He said that the chief thing to keep in mind, is to figure out what exactly the company is doing with cash flows. Remember, a company is really the present value of its future cash flows. If it keeps investing in dying or 0 return assets, the actual earnings aren't worth a whole lot. This is why some investors will take it a step further and try to look at the liquidation value of assets to see if that adds any margin of safety when faced with earnings that will likely decline in the future. Now I'm not an expert or investor in RIMM, but I always think it's really helpful to lay out the data in order to make a better decision on an investment. Here's the facts: - RIMM generated $2.9 bn in operating profits over the last 12 months - Over the last 12 months, the company's cash balance has declined by $969mm - CapEx over the last 12 months was $1.0 bn and acquisition of intangibles was $1.5 bn BOP Cash: 2,471 EOP Cash: 1,502 Net Cash: (969) Cash from Operations: 2,900 CapEx: (1,000) Intangibles: (1,500) Working Capital: (853) Acquisitions: (262) Other: (254) Total: (969) Over the past 12 months, RIMM has spent $1.0 bn in CapEx while PP&E has declined by $387mm If I were an investor in RIMM, I would do a ton of digging to see what all my cash flows are being spent on and really scrutinize it to see if that will create any real value for shareholders. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CONeal Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 Have noticed Blackberry doing a better job with marketing the last couple of weeks. Sponsoring the opening night of the NBA on ESPN and while watching the Fiesta Bowl tonight, saw a Blackberry Bold commercial. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCG Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 Have noticed Blackberry doing a better job with marketing the last couple of weeks. Sponsoring the opening night of the NBA on ESPN and while watching the Fiesta Bowl tonight, saw a Blackberry Bold commercial. A 'better job' means making money from their adds. otherwise it's just wasting more money. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stahleyp Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 Tariq, thanks for your thoughts on RIMM too! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now